World leaders arrive in South Korea for APEC summit NPU file photo
Leaders gathered at the G7 in Kananaskis this week, reuniting the heads of the world's most powerful economies for the first time since the re-election of the US president, had a lot on their plate considering the tense trade climate between the traditionally close partners. In addition ongoing wars, such as Ukraine and Gaza, were sure to be on the agenda. But new clashes between Iran and Israel, this time with added ferocity that suggested Israel wanted to bring the regime down and end its nuclear threat once and for all, took centre stage amid fears of a wider Mideast conflict. The two Middle Eastern countries had spent days exchanging rocket fire after the Jewish state struck nuclear facilities, ending whatever talks were still underway. As world leaders met in Canada, Israel urged the citizens of Tehran to evacuate ahead of a new series of strikes. The crisis shortened U.S. president Donald Trump's partici-pation at the summit, as rumors swirled the US may join the attack against Iran, if only to punch through bunkers deep underground that Israel, despite its quickly secured control of Iranian airspace, could not. The offensive further divided Western allies, French president Emmanuel Macron suggesting that bringing regime change was a recipe for trouble in an already troubled part of the world. "The greatest mistake we could do is seeking through military means to change the regime in Iran," he said, warning the world risks a repeat of the "chaos" that marked regime change in Iraq and Libya. But the US seems to think the time for coming to the table has come and gone. The G7 called for de-escalation short of asking for the ceasefire but Washington was calling for total capitulation of the regime, all signs indicating it had prevented Israel from kiling Iran's spiritual leader, but that this remained an option. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defiantly responded there would be no surrender and that the US would face "irreparable damage" if it attacked, criticizing the Jewish state for scuttling talks. Further involvement by Washington would go against the administration's stated aim to distance itself from foreign conflicts. Experts seem divided on whether Iran in fact is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, something leaders in the West at least agree Iran should never have. Intelligence agencies have said the regime is still years away from reaching that point and this week IAEA head Rafael Grossi said "we are not able to say Iran has made efforts in the fabrication of nuclear weapons" and reiterated the many risks associated with attacking nuclear sites. Surprisingly silent during this crisis is Moscow, once a staunch supporter of Tehran, but now embroiled in its own conflict. Also silenced are Tehran's once violent proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, other victims of Israel's strikes in a campaign that seeks to put away the actors behind the Oct. 7 attacks. Also remaining largely quiet is China, which is a major Iranian oil importer and seeks to deepen ties with Tehran. Like the G7, Beijing called for a de-escalation of the conflict, adding it was ready to play a constructive role in any talks. Sadly neither China nor the G7 have had much influence or success ending recent conflicts, from the Middle East to Eastern Europe.
Targeting Iran
A ceasefire
The shots heard fired across Khan Younis were celebratory for a change. It had been a long bloody two years in the Gaza Strip. Now, as Israel's remaining hostages and some 2,000 Gazans imprisoned since the Oct. 7 attacks were freed under the first stage of the U.S.-brokered Mideast peace plan, hope grew the region's latest chapter of violence had finally come to an end. Tens of thousands died during the two-year conflict and little more than rubble remained of large sections of the heavily urbanized strip hugging the Mediterranean. The guns barely silent, Egypt hosted two dozen world leaders to plan the long road forward under an ambitious peace deal which envisions reconstruction, the presence of an international stabilisation force and even a pathway to Palestinian self-determination. But this elaborate plan no doubt included some areas sure to meet resistance, such as the disarmament of Hamas and Palestinian self-determi-nation. Hamas may have agreed to relinquish control of Gaza, dropping their weapons is something different entirely. And Palestinian self-determina-tion and statehood have been contentious subjects for decades. As he delivered his speech in the Knesset the U.S. president was interrupted by legislators who called on him to emulate what a number of influential Western leaders had done in recent weeks, recognise Palestine. These were battles for another day as the more immediate need to send massive amounts of aid into Gaza came front and centre and planning began for the eventual restoration of essential infrastructure works such as utilities and hospitals. In other words the hard work starts now, the really really hard work of a lasting ceasefire and eventually, one day, building acceptance and understanding, work usually interrupted by occasional flare-ups that remind us how elusive lasting peace in the Middle-East can really be. Because if anything the conflict and the destruction it has created has only deepened the divide between the have and have nots of the region, breeding resentment and tensions. That's why so much hinges on reconstruction and proper administration of these efforts, as the Gaza Strip eventually comes under the transitional governance of a committee made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts. Amid the celebrations surrounding the exchange of hostages for prisoners, there was the desperation and torment of those who lost everything in the 738 days of devastation. "There's nothing to be happy about," told the New York Times Saed Abu Aita. "My two daughters were killed, my home was destroyed and my health has deteriorated." Israeli families who received the bodies of their loved ones, kidnapped on Oct. 7 never to be seen alive again, also shared mixed feelings, their grief only slightly lightened by a sense of closure. A number of bodies were yet to be handed over. As aid trickled in some bakeries reopened, gradually returning some of the essentials to the masses on the move to reclaim parts of Gaza abandoned by IDF troops. Neighborhoods now unrecognizable, uninhabitable, completely unsalvageable. Parts of the peace plan emphasize the need to foster better understanding and relations, but continued tensions in the West Bank, and reluctance by the Israeli prime minister to free some Palestinian political leaders showed the long road ahead for this latest ceasefire to translate into lasting peace. Already Israel started imposing some restrictions on the newly trickling aid, unsatisfied by Hamas' slow return of the bodies of hostages. The armed group also engaged in a campaign to execute collaborators, pursuing clashes with rival groups, all the while failing to hand in its guns. And the ceasefire did little to stop the criticism of Israel's Gaza campaign, European leaders saying they would keep the pressure on the Israeli government, while protests continued to welcome Israeli sports teams visiting other countries.
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Génération désenchantée
Kashmir again
The world had been at such a critical junction in the past, but major capitals could only watch and shudder, sending urgent pleas to silent the guns, as Pakistan responded to Indian rocket fire on its territory with strikes of its own, tensions rising once more following last month's militant attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir. The two nuclear powers have exchanged fire on a number of occasions in the last decade, but signs Delhi was threatening to cut the flow of waters trickling into Pakistan left some observers fearing the two neighbors torn from partition would not de-escalate immediately as full-blown war threatened one of the most heavily populated regions of the world. The existence of Kashmir itself is a symbol of continued tensions and unsettled border disputes between the two south Asian nations. India blamed the earlier attack in the contested region on Pakistan-based militants, something Islamabad denied. Such militants have targeted India in the past, most notably in the 2008 attacks in Mumbai, one of the deadliest ever carried out, killing 175 people, including the nine assailants, over four days. More recently both countries locked horns in 2016 when 19 Indian soldiers were killed, leading Delhi to launch "surgical strikes" across the Line of Control, and 2019, when 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers lost their lives, leading to the first airstrikes inside Pakistan since 1971, the year East Pakistan broke away and formed Bangladesh. But this time the victims were civilian, harkening back to the Mumbai attacks. "We're once again in a conflict situation, and the story is unfolding in much the same way," Ajay Bisaria, India's former high commissioner to Pakistan, told the BBC. "How hard it was to build trust, I thought. And how easy was it to break it," he once wrote in his memoirs. "All the confidence-building measures planned, negotiated, and implemented over years in this difficult relationship, could be slashed off on a yellow notepad in minutes." Since the latest Kashmir attack Delhi expelled diplomats, suspen-ded visas, closed the main border crossing and barred Pakistani aircrafts of all sorts from its airspace. The decision to halt the river water sharing agreement was particularly concerning to observers who feared it could ratchet up tensions considerably considering the severe environmental impact this could have. Pakistan once warned cutting the flow "will be considered as an act of war", but Islamabad already considered India's strikes under this light. India's water flow accounts for about 80% of the water supply to farms in Pakistan. The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty has survived two wars between the rivals and it's not clear what India would do with the excess water, currently lacking the reservoirs or dams to hold it. Capitals across the world made repeated calls for de-escalation after this latest flare-up. "The world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan," said a spokesperson for the UN Secretary General. A break in the hostilities eventually came into effect, but Delhi warned it was only a suspension, not a ceasefire, sparking concerns of future exchanges ahead.
Changer de tracé
Comme toutes les cartes dessinées du monde connu avant elle, celle d'un certain cartographe quinquagénaire flammand du 16e siècle avait bien ses défauts; ses terres du septentrion disproportion-nées et son Antarctique plutôt fantaisiste. Mais même à l'époque des lumières les proportions exactes relevaient encore de la science fiction et Gerardus Mercator parvenait avec ses tracés révolutionnaires à mener de nombreux marins à bon port en réussissant un exploit jusqu'alors inégalé: représenter sur une feuille de papier un globe terrestre bien rond. Son plan original, mesurant 2 mètres par 1.25m. fit eventuellement de lui le père de la catrographie moderne, capturant, selon son biographe, "l'essence de la vérité spatiale". Sa projection a depuis subi plusieurs modifications, mais demeure la norme planétaire, des cartes de Google, pourtant le champion de la vérité satellitaire, aux nombreux atlas en circulation. Mais l'exagération de l'hémisphère nord, domaine des pays les mieux nantis, n'a pas tardé à lancer le débat de la vérité cartographique sous le prisme anti-colonial. A-t-on toléré ces imperfections pendant tant de siècles uniquement parce que les Occidentaux possédaient, non les plumes ou les dactylos, mais les sextants? C'est l'accusation des pays africains, dont le continent peut paraître plus petit que le Groënland, certes la plus importante île du monde mais aux proportions démesurées, dans la projection Mercator. Par conséquent l'Union africaine apportait en août son soutien officiel à la campagne «Correct the Map» de deux organisations africaines afin de mettre fin à des siècles de mensonge cartographique en remplaçant la carte par une projection plus précise des proportions des continents. La mappemonde la plus répandue « grossit artificiellement l'Europe et l'Amérique du Nord, tout en réduisant la taille de l'Afrique d'environ la moitié, dénonce Fara Ndiaye de l'organisation Speak Up Africa. Et cette distorsion-là, elle n'est pas neutre, elle façonne notre imaginaire collectif, influence les programmes scolaires et aussi les représentations médiatiques, lorsqu'un enfant africain, notamment nos enfants africains, voient leur continent rapetissé, cela diminue aussi un certain sentiment de fierté et l'importance que cet enfant accorde à son identité. Donc finalement, pour nous, corriger la carte, c'est donc bien plus qu'une question technique, c'est un acte symbolique fort qui touche à la dignité, à la justice et au récit que nous voulons construire autour du continent africain » Cette dernière prône donc l'adoption de la version Equal Earth (voir en couverture) aux proportions plus véridiques. « Pour nous, la projection Equal Earth est un outil pédagogique qui pourrait tout à fait être utilisé dans les écoles, à travers les médias, les différentes institutions, car il permet réellement de montrer un monde équilibré où chaque continent retrouve son véritable poids, ce qui n'est pas du tout le cas de la projection Mercator ». Le débat ne date pas d'hier et a même fait l'objet d'un épisode de l'émission populaire américaine West Wing au début du siècle. De nos jours la nation de l'Oncle Sam modifie la carte à sa guise, renommant entre autre le golfe du Mexique, ce qui laisse douter qu'un président qui regrette que les musées nationaux parlent "trop de l'esclavage" aille dans le sens d'une version donnant à l'Afrique - dont plusieurs citoyens sont interdits de séjour - sa juste proportion. Pourtant d'autres ont fait le saut. La Banque mondiale a adopté l'Equal Earth, aussi connue sous le nom de Winkel-Tripel, tandis que L'Unesco préfère celle de Gall-Peters, qui corrige certaines distortions de la projection Mercator sans pour autant être parfaite. Nulles le sont ou ne peuvent l'être lorsqu'il s'agit de représenter une sphère sur une surface plane. Google a bien, grâce à ses nombreux moyens, représenté un globe en 3-D mais sans totalement abandonner Mercator. L'intelligence artificielle fera-t-elle mieux? Quoi qu'il en soit, la projection Mercator est dépassée, s'accorde à dire Mark Monmonier de l'université américaine de Syracuse “Il s'agissait d'un outil de navigation utile au 16ème siècle parce qu'il contient des lignes droites donnant une ligne de navigation constante à suivre, dit-il, mais en dehors de cette application plutôt limitée, il n'y a plus aucun intérêt à l'utiliser".
Peu emballée par la politique et plutôt accro aux portables cette génération Z qui n'a connu qu'internet? Pourtant un drôle de vent bouleverse les rues de Madagascar à Lima en passant par Kathmadou et le Maroc depuis quelques mois. Et il n'a rien de passif, faisant même tomber deux gouvernements dans son sillage. Mobilisés par les médias sociaux ces jeunes nés entre 1997 et 2012 multiplient les manifestations contre un nombre de fléaus, de la corruption des élites à la pauvreté des services publics comme les hôpitaux, le tout sous des bannières d'inspiration manga aux couleurs de Onepiece.
Leur impact a été conséquent au Madagascar, où présidence et gouvernement ont chuté, et au Népal où les services internet ont été rétablis après l'expulsion du premier ministre qui avait sévèrement réprimé le mouvement. Au Maroc un Sirocco politique s'est également levé contre l'organisation coûteuse du Mondial de 2030 (un partenariat avec l'Espagne et le Portugal), des fonds, selon les manifestants, mieux dépensés en améliorant les services publics. "Les stades sont là, mais où sont les hopitaux?" figure parmi les slogans. Et le mouvement n'a pas été limité aux jeunes, ces derniers parvenant à faire mobiliser leurs aînés, parfois plus influents.
"C'est une jeunesse très courageuse, qui n'a pas connu les années de plomb, qui est née avec internet et qui voit la force des mobilisations sur les médias sociaux et qui a appris des erreurs du printemps arabe... et qui est en train de prendre en main son destin, résume à France 24 Tahani Brahma de l'association marocaine des droits humains. J'espère juste que ça ne va pas donner lieu à des violences." Malheureu-sement, quelques jours après le début des éclats marocains deux manifestants perdaient la vie lorsqu'ils s'en sont pris à un poste de police d'Agadir.
La police a dit agir en cas de légitime défence. Cette génération internet, qui représente un important segment de cette jeune population, a lancé une campagne sur les médias sociaux de toute pièce, eux qui n'avaient qu'amplifié un mouvement déjà en branle lors du printemps arabe, dont on a tâché de retenir les leçons. Le taux de chômage y dépasse le 35% chez les jeunes. Plus de 400 personnes ont été arrêtées en moins d'une semaine de manifestations qui ont fait des centaines de blessés, plus de la moitié des policiers, selon les autorités. La coalition au pouvoir a cependant fait appel au dialogue.
La semaine dernière le roi a tenté d'apaiser la situation, mais les manifestants prévoyaient de nouvelles actions. Alors que gouvernement et roi y tiennent bon, législature et président ont fait les frais de la révolte au Madagascar, un des pays les plus pauvres du continent. Fin septembre le premier ministre rendait sa démission alors que la crise s'envenimait, emportant une vingtaine de vies. Les manifestants ont poursuivi leur condamnation des coupures de courant et d'alimentation en eau pendant plusieurs jours alors qu'un nouveau premier ministre, un général de l'armée de terre peu connu du public, était mis en place.
Le président Andry Rajoelina s'est empressé de déclarer: "Notre ennemi ce n'est pas nous entre Malgaches, notre ennemi sont la pauvreté, la corruption, l'abus de pouvoir." Ce discours faisait écho des cris des manifestants, mais ces derniers restaient sur leur faim. Peu de temps après Rajoelina quittait le territoire, incapable de faire calmer les ardeurs des manifestants. De semblables mouvements en 2009 avaient forcé la démission du président Marc Ravalomanana, prédécesseur de Rajoelina. Ce dernier s'était en un premier temps donné un an pour régler la crise, mais s'empressa de jeter l'éponge et de fuir le pays après la décision d'un contingent de l'armée de rejoindre les manifestants et de « refuser les ordres de tirer ». Un représentant de l'ONU faisait alors appel à la fin de l'usage d'une force «inutile et disproportionnée» par les forces de l'ordre et à la libération des manifestants interpellés.
Les militaires prirent alors les rênes du pouvoir, rejetant cependant les accusations d'avoir orchestré un coup d'état. Sa mise en place une fois annoncée, le colonel Michael Randrianirina a remercié les jeunes et lancé une série de consultations avec la population, incluant des centaines de personnes dont des universitaires, des personnalités politiques et des juges. Parmi elles Mbolatiana Raveloari-misa, militante des droits des femmes, s'est présentée à titre de liaison avec la jeunesse malgache. "Les jeunes ont pu prendre la parole, dit-elle. Donc, on va collaborer pour finaliser une feuille de route ou les axes stratégiques pour pouvoir faire avancer le pays, mais surtout pour que les jeunes participent à ce renouveau de Madagascar et qu’ils ne soient pas comme de la crème sur la cerise."
TARGETS ABROAD
As the Middle Eastern and Ukrainian conflicts spread beyond their borders, dismissing international law, is the U.S. engaging in its own extra-territorial activities in the name of conducting a war on narcoterrorism? It wouldn't be the first time, but in the current environment this is worrying many, especially its southern neighbor, struggling with cartel warfare.
In recent weeks Washington has dispatched more military assets in the Caribbean and Latin America, targeting vessels off the coast of Venezuela in particular and assisting Latin American countries struggling with drugs and gangs. Washington recently designated a number of cartels and criminal gangs as foreign terrorist organizations. Similarly France has been upping its game in the French Antilles, boosting assets in Martinique, itself in the busy Caribbean drugs corridor to send narcotics to Europe.
But the U.S. has been targeting suspect vessels with deadly force and even considered military action in Mexico, which is struggling with its drug gangs problem. In fact the Washington Post reported the DEA advocated for military strikes in Mexico "alarming some in the White House and Pentagon and presaging the fraught debate underway in Washington over the legality of this month’s deadly attacks on alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean Sea."
Caracas has been put on a war path since its vessels have been sunk by the U.S., president Nicolas Maduro vowing he would deploy 4.5 militia members to counter the threat, which has sent some citizens to target ranges to hone their skills. Caracas called on the UN to investigate the destruction of three of its boats for "crimes against humanity". Washington, which has not had the most cordial relations with the regime regardless of the administration in place, has raised the bounty for Maduro's arrest to $50 million.
Venezuela is hardly the only target as the U.S. military deployed some 4,000 Marines and sailors in waters around Latin America and the Caribbean, including the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit to US Southern Command, according to CNN, as military assets were being repositioned to target gangs and their drug trade. The U.S. says it is targeting narco-terrorist organizations in the region, once again using domestic security to justify bold action by an administration which has waived it in policies varying from the border to trade.
As with the controversial deployment of the National Guard to support policing matters in U.S. cities, the move has raised eyebrows, with some critics noting the Marines may not be in the best position to conduct operations against narcotrafficking. The US had earlier received a sharp rebuke from Mexico as it deployed destroyers to the areas around the US-Mexico border, particularly after Washington suggested it may be able to assist its neighbor's war against the cartels with drones and other assets.
In a March address to Congress, the U.S. president had declared, “The cartels are waging war in America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels” and eventually designated 13 cartels and criminal groups, including six based in Mexico and two in Venezuela, as foreign terrorist organizations. But Foreign Affairs magazine suggested going on a war path risks repeating mistakes of the past and missing out on opportunities to team up with willing partners in the fight against drugs. "A militarized approach may be a politically attractive way for Trump to project strength," the magazine writes. "But there is a more productive path forward than drastically shifting the rules of engagement with transnational criminal groups... More extensive border measures, increased bilateral security coordination, and more frequent (but not more lethal) maritime interdiction efforts can accomplish just as much as unilateral U.S. military interventions using drones and special operations forces would, all while limiting risk to U.S. personnel and mitigating blowback."
But right now what unilateral action risks is discouraging partnerships, even with countries with which the U.S. enjoys relatively good relations with. Mexico flatly said thanks but no thanks to U.S. action against the cartels. And on all these matters, there is the small matter of international law. As sensitive as the notion is, military action in Mexico would “be hard to square with domestic or international law,” notes Brian Finucane, with the International Crisis Group. But he notes. “Even though U.S. military action in Mexico would almost certainly be unlawful, as a practical matter such illegality may not serve as an effective impediment.”
The administration has been as involved in the courts as it has in Congress since the beginning of the year, as measures such as expelling asylum seekers and raising trade barriers have often times been halted by various U.S. courts. And, while it may not come to that, if it sounds like Trump is channelling his inner Duterte by mimicking the former Filipino leader's bloody war on drugs, consider the latter is facing Filipino justice for his actions.
U.S. Defense Secretary spokesman Sean Parnell said the Caribbean operations are “lawful under both U.S. and international law, with all actions in complete compliance with the law of armed conflict.” The terrorist organization designation however has no bearing on the application of international law. This week the president determined the US was in an "armed conflict" with the cartels, calling them "unlawful combatants", a move that may seek to legitimize strikes on Caribbean vessels and bypass Congress.
COUPÉS DU MONDE
Le printemps arabe avait confirmé la place grandissante des médias sociaux dans la contestation, et les manifestations récentes au Népal leur caractère presque sacré même au pied des Himalayas. Après quelques jours de mouvements sociaux et d'éclats avec les forces de l'ordre un nouveau premier ministre était aux commandes à Kathmandou et les médias sociaux rétablis.
Alarmés, les régimes autoritaires ont pris note, limitant leur accès dans plusieurs pays, notamment en Chine, et coupant même les connections internet en Afrique. C'était le cas lors des dernières élections en Guinée équatoriale. Mais lorsqu'une île contestataire de ce petit pays d'Afrique de l'ouest a été à l'origine de plaintes contre un projet du régime autoritaire, le gouvernement a rompu les précieux et essentiels liens électroniques pour une période indéterminée, laissant ses habitants au bord du désespoir, et dans certains cas, de la ruine.
La missive à l'origine de cette coupure condamnait l'impact des nombreuses explosions à la dynamite d'une minière marocaine opérant sur Annobón, une île d'environ 5000 habitants qui a souvent été critique vis à vis du régime autoritaire à Malabo. La réaction fut vive, passant par l'arrestation des contestataires et la rupture d'internet. C'était en juillet, non pas cette année mais l'an dernier, ce qui a eu la grâve conséquence de couper ses habitants du reste du pays, et du monde, rendant de simples opérations impossibles.
Le système bancaire et médical est au point mort, rendant les transactions de tout genre et mesures d'urgence difficiles. La surveillance de ce qu'il reste de communications est considé-rable, sans surprise dans un pays friand de coups d'états où la corruption est sans limite depuis la découverte d'importants dépots de pétrole dans les années 90. Comme de nombreux états de la région riches en ressources naturelles, celui-ci a vu les caisses de l'état gonfler sans pour autant alléger une pauvreté endémique.
Mais la répression sur l'île est sans précédent selon Tutu Alicante de l'organisation humanitaire EG Justice. "C'est la première fois que le gouvernement coupe internet parce qu'une communauté a formulé une plainte," dit-il à l'AP. Selon Human Rights Watch le pays de 2 millions d'habitants dirigé par l'octagénaire Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo depuis 40 ans, donne libre cours à "la corruption, la pauvreté et la répression".
Tandis que la moitié de la population est sous le seuil de pauvreté "d’importants revenus pétroliers financent des modes de vie somptueux pour la petite élite entourant le président... La mauvaise gestion des fonds publics et les allégations crédibles de corruption de haut niveau perdurent, tout comme d'autres abus grâves, notamment la torture, la détention arbitraire et les procès inéquitables."Malheureu-sement la succession, le fils aîné du président, "Teodorin, a été mis en examen en France pour blanchiment d’argent."
La coupure d'internet isole davantage la plus pauvre île du pays, une marginalisation non seulement politique mais "culturelle, sociétale et économique" selon Mercè Monje Cano, de l'organisation des Personnes et nations sous-représentées. Cette semaine l'Afghanistan tout entier basculait également dans le noir électronique après la rupture de fibres optiques par le régime taliban pour cause d'"immoralité". Selon l'analyste Michael Kugelman, il s'agit d'une des mesures les plus draconiennes du régime islamiste, qui en avait fait de même en prenant le pouvoir.
FAR FROM PEACE
There was no small amount of uneasiness in the West as a smiling Vladimir Putin walked down the red carpet on the tarmac of Anchorage's military base for a meeting with US president Donald Trump, and no small amount of relief the summit to discuss Ukraine, whose president was visibly absent, yielded no agreement ceding Ukrainian land seized by Moscow, only more vague talks of productive meetings and more talks.
The red carpet, for one, was a disturbing welcome for a leader ostracized by the West for launching its latest, most brutal, assault on its neighbor, no longer confined to alternative BRICS-like summits after being kept out of the G7 in Canada this year. The man wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity was, of all places, walking on formerly Russian turf in a region, the Arctic, increasingly looking to become a battleground of the future. In the days leading to the short hours-long get together European and Canadian allies had reiterated the importance of making Kyiv central to any decisions on the future of Ukraine.
Indeed Volodymyr Zelensky would have his meeting in the following days, hoping to forget about that first catastrophic meeting in the White House. This time he would be joined by a number of European leaders, from France's Macron to Britain's Starmer, staunch allies encouraged by America's proposal of security guarantees for Ukraine, but at what cost. European observers had one previous summit on their minds in the days leading to the Alaska gathering, Munich, the great concession which had only wet Hitler's appetite for more of the European pie.
But there would be no agreement or ceasefire after a week Ukrainian drones struck positions in Russia and Russian troops and the foreign conscripts serving as their front lines tried to further push into Ukraine to increase their gains. In fact the man who covets an award that by definition should not be coveted, the Nobel Peace Prize, was cooling to the idea of seeking a ceasefire, aiming for a peace deal instead, an ever harder goal to achieve.
Shaking hands and photo-ops are easy, making peace is not. When one is rushed by the limit of political mandates, at least until a way is found to get rid of them, there is little time for long drawn-out negotiations, and an urgency for immediate results. But Zelensky's allies insisted a ceasefire would be needed if one is to bring the two belligerents together around a table. Abandoning the idea of a ceasefire, as well as plans for further US sanctions against Russia, was another indication Putin had come out a winner in Alaska, making the summit with European leaders all the more urgent in the days that followed.
“From the European point of view the best thing that could be said about the (Alaska) meeting is that it could have been even worse," commented former Swedish prime minister of Carl Bildt. "Combined European efforts blocked at least any deal over the head of the Ukrainians.” The host had suffered “a distinct setback”, by abandoning the idea of obtaining a ceasefire, he added. “What the world sees is a weak and wobbling America.”
Quite removed from the greatness it seeks. Unless an eventual Zelensky-Putin meeting does actually bring the war closer to a resolution. But after two crucial summits, the Russian attacks continued. "So long as he believes he can win with war he will continue," Macron said.
A GREEN VOTE
While the explosion of global tourism has often raised concerns and elicited protest it has rarely been front and centre in election campaigns. But in an idyllic Indian ocean archipelago home to barely 100,000 people depending on the industry for most of its revenues plans for the development of a luxory hotel near a turtle sanctuary has set off alarm bells.
"To our knowledge there's no one to oversee these construction works or to ensure incidents are reported," warned Gérard Rocamora of the university of the Seychelles and head of the Island Biodiversity Conservation Centre. "The fact a new luxory hotel will be built near the (biodiversity) gem that Aldabra is has raised many concerns."
He fears the arrival of invasive species that could impact the atoll, which he called "one of the rare places on the planet where the impact of humanity remains minimal," and called for strict biodiversity protocols to protect the region. He tells Radio France Internationale the arms length Seychelles Islands Foundation has drawn up biodiversity protections but that they remain vague.
The issue has dominated the presidential election campaign which has just concluded, and one of the first things Patrick Herminie, the victor who collected some 52% of the vote in the second-round run-off, says he will do when he is sworn in is halt the Qatari-funded project after a campaign during which he pledged more scrutiny on tourist projects. He told the BBC his country "got peanuts in that contract" and called the deal "unacceptable".
Outgoing Wavel Ramkalawan had defended the deal stressing the country needed foreign investments to boost employment. According to the World Bank the country had a growth rate of 2.9% in 2024, up from 2.3% the year before, boosted by telecom, financial services and construction. According to the original agreement Qataris would lease the island for 70 years. Herminie said he "would put everything on hold and have a meeting with the investors and express our concrns."
Some construction is already underway. This is just the latest project on Assumption island to create a stir. A few years ago plans for an Indian military base was eventually scrapped after causing popular uproar. Its geographic location has put the Seychelles on the radar in a number of countries including China, Gulf nations and India, all seeking to pursue security cooperation arrangements. While the nation of over 100 islands is Africa's wealthiest per capita, largely owing to tourism, it is also highly vulnerable to climate change.
CHOOSING EUROPE
Russian meddling and provocation has been on many European leaders' minds in recent weeks since Russian drones or planes were spotted from Poland to Denmark, but no country has been more concerned by this than Moldova, the small central European country bordering Ukraine which is home to a breakaway Russophile region.
Authorities there accused Moscow of spending hundreds of millions of euros to "take power" in last weekend's parliamentary election, threatening to steer the nation of 2.3 million away from Europe. But in the end the pro-European governing Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) took 50% of the vote, to the relief of Western powers concerned about growing Russian influence. "You made your choice clear: Europe. Democracy. Freedom," congratulated European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The country was rumored to be on Russia's next list of victims, if Moscow's attack on Ukraine had led to an immediate success. People suspected of seeking to disrupt the vote to elect the assembly's 101 members were arrested ahead of the Sep. 28 election amid suspicion of vote buying and disruption. PAS leader Igor Grosu said Russia had thrown "everything it had" at the election to influence the vote: "Tons of money, tons of lies, tons of irregularities"
All sorts of rumors flooded social media ahead of the election and Moscow did not hesitate to make provocative statements, such as suggesting the country was going to be invaded by NATO troops, an idea not without its appeal considering the proximity to Europe's raging Eastern front.
Tensions are higher in the region after Western allies hinted they may be inclined to shoot down Russian planes entering their air space in the future, a reaction the Kremlin deemed "dangerous". European countries also gathered to counter the growing drone incursions, which have spread from Denmark and Germany to France, by looking to erect a "wall of drones" at its borders.
Wary of its tenuous situation, Moldova applied to join the European Union soon after Moscow's attack in Ukraine in 2022, acquiring candidate status and engaging in accession negotiations. The head of the pro-Russia Patriotic Electoral Bloc, opposition leader Igor Dodon, claimed victory even before results trickled in and called for protests, but few turned up. His bloc had barely secured about a quarter of the vote.
But it didn't fail to obtain the support of the Kremlin whose spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared without evidence: "From what we see and know, we can conclude that hundreds of thousands of Moldovans were deprived of the opportunity to vote in Russia because there were only two polling stations open to them, which was of course insufficient." Expats lined up to vote in North America and other regions, but in the end this late count was not necessary to declare a winner.
The road ahead will not be easy for the party of president Maia Sandu. It will need the support of others to govern, and the country is also struggling with an economic crisis marked by high inflation and worsened by persisting corruption. But the vote was no less significant, stressed Sandu: "The results of the vote aren't a victory for one party or certain electors, they are a victory for the entire country," she said. "It's a strong mandate for the process of joining the EU."
SPILLING OUT
As feared wars dragging into another year without a path to peace are spilling into new countries, threatening to send a world building up its armaments into a spiral of violence. But observers point out the current period of instability is all the more pronounced after what has been a historically exceptional period of relative peace.
The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting after Israel targeted Hamas leadership in Qatar, a country leading peace efforts to end the conflict. At the same time NATO officials were being convened under the rarely invoked Article 4 to discuss the ramifications of Russian drone incursions into Poland some considered intentional.
The Jewish state's offensive was criticized even by steadfast ally Washington, which had been supportive of previous strikes in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and, to some extent, Iran. It came days before Benjamin Netanyahu launched a ground offensive in devastated Gaza, on the day a UN commission of inquiry declared Israel had committed genocide in the enclave. The attack targeting Hamas leadership, following a shooting claimed by the group which killed 6 in Jerusalem, took the life of 6 including a Qatari official, prompting condemnation of violations of international law. Qatar's leader told the BBC this set back peace efforts considerably.
The Ukrainian peace drive has also hit a roadblock despite efforts by Washington to push the parties closer to the negotiating table. While the Russian airspace violation did not cause any deaths, it resulted in destroyed property and provoked the first military response by NATO to a Russian incursion, shooting down some but not all of the drones. Every new day brought chips to the international order.
Any spillover in Poland, accidental or not, risked making the nightmares of former Soviet republics come true. Besides Poland, the Baltic states have for years feared possible encroachment, while Russian influence was on everyone's mind as Moldova's election campaign neared its end. “Russia is pushing buttons, to see what the Americans will do,” told the New York Times Max Bergmann, director for Europe and Russia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Like Europe, “Russia is trying to understand what the Trump presidency means and where is it headed. And if you want to undermine NATO and Europe’s security architecture in a few years, you want to test it.”
The incident has redoubled caution by airliners aware of previous commercial disasters over war zones, such as Malaysian Airlines flight 17 in 2014 when war was already raging in Ukraine's east. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned the war could disrupt paths for European airlines for years to come. "This is going to be an ongoing issue for all airlines and all European citizens for the next number of years," he said. "The risk is one of continuous disruption, rather than of safety." His airline is already considering stopping service to Israel as that conflict drags on. The drone incursion prompted France to send fighter jets to Poland to prevent any future attack as NATO beefed up security by launching Operation Eastern Sentry, involving Denmark, the UK, Germany in order to add "flexibility and strength to our posture".
There was some criticism that a few dozen drones had prompted such as massive reaction by the alliance, which sent fighter jets to shoot down with less success than Ukraine's armed forces, and at great cost, relatively cheap drones. The incident also led to some dissension amid the alliance, Poland contradicting the US, which viewed the incursion as an accident. Days later, Romania says it sent fighter jets to chase a Russian drone out of its territory.
"Although the immediacy of our focus is on Poland, the situation transcends the border region of one nation," commented NATO commander Alexus Grynkewich. This seems to apply to the Middle Eastern conflict as well, as Israel followed the Qatari strike with renewed strikes on Yemen. If it seems the world is now a turbulent place, this is because the current period contrasts with the historically exceptional one that preceded it, historian Florian Louis tells France24.
"We are seeing a multiplication of violent clashes, internal or international, we are in a world more unstable than we have seen for some time," he says , a contrast made more obvious by years stretching from 1945 to the early 21st century which had been relatively peaceful. "This was an exceptional period and what we are witnessing now is a certain return to what had historically been the norm," he says. Leaders such as Putin and Netanyahu are less hesitant to act at a time the world's superpower limits foreign involvements, as one sees the other act with relative impunity, he noted.
CONTESTATION SERBE
Comme ailleurs en Europe la saison estivale a été plutôt chaude et Serbie, mais la météo n'y était pas toujours pour quelquechose. Les manifestations à répétition représentent le défi le plus important qu'ait pu connaitre le président Aleksandar Vučić après 14 années à la tête du pays balkan.
Ainsi son absence début septembre pour participer au grand défilé militaire de Xi Jinping lui permettait sans doute de fuir la contestation croissante dans les rues du pays, qui s'est envenimée depuis les éclats de la mi-août entre manifestants et forces de l'ordre et ne paraît pas prête à s'estomper avec le retour en classe, loin de là.
Les manifestations ont vu le jour depuis l'écroulement de la toiture d'une gare fraîchement rénovée en fin 2024, donnant lieu à une répression sévèrement criti-quée par les instances européennes. Les manifestants font appel à la tenue d'élections anticipées, accusant la corruption d'être responsable du désastre qui a emporté 16 vies. "La solution est de faire appel à des élections, expliquait un manifestant, Nebojsa Korac, lors d'un rassemblement aspergé par du gaz lacrymogène sur un campus de Novi Sad. De notre côté on veut que la démocratie l'emporte et que les institutions politiques fassent leur travail. Ca veut dire faire appel à des élections, ça représente la solution car le gouvernement va changer."
Vučić rejette les accusations d'excès de violence par les forces de l'ordre durant les manifestations, écrivant dans les pages du Guardian que les mouvements contestataires réguliers "dérangent le quotidien, paralyse le gouvernement et deviennent violents", soulignant que 170 agents de police ont été blessés. Des supporters de soccer violents qui se serait mêlés aux manifestations ont notamment été signalés pendant les manifestations de la mi-août.
"Malgré tout les actions de la police ont été limitées et restreintes et ont seulement visé ceux qui s'en sont pris à la propriété ou aux policiers". Son gouvernement n'a pas perdu une seconde avant de lancer une enquête, ajoute-t-il, et a rendu publics "des milliers de documents sur la rénovation de la station de train."
Le premier ministre a par ailleurs rendu sa démission en acceptant la responsabilité pour les éclats. Mais les protestataires exigent également le départ du président , préférant devancer le calendrier électoral dont l'échéancier est atteint en 2027. L'Organisation pour la sécurité et la coopération en Europe n'a pas caché que les élections parlementaires de l'an dernier laissaient à désirer au niveau de l'influence des médias et du patronage lors du vote.
Vučić par ailleurs a été accusé d’étouffer les libertés démocratiques et de donner libre voie au crime organisé, ce qu'il nie. L'Union européenne quant à elle limite ses critiques afin d'éviter de faire basculer le régime davantage dans le camp russe, comme la Slovaquie et la Hongrie. Pareil à ces homologues, Vučić a accusé l'Occident d'orchestrer le désordre, un bouc émissiaire familier depuis le bombar-dement de Belgrade par des avions de l'Otan pendant la guerre des Balkans de la fin du XXème siècle. La Serbie espère toujours intégrer l'UE mais reste proche de Moscou.
AVOIDING THE CURSE
As Guyanans headed to the polls to elect their president, there was little doubt the incumbent Irfaan Ali, who won eight of the country's 10 regions after promising a "prosperous Guyana", was favoured to win, riding an oil-fueled boom that has made the small South American country among the fastest-growing economies in the world.
More good news is in store as growth is expected to continue, projections topping the production of over a million barrels of oil a day. But high inflation not unrelated to major infrastructure projects and growing inequalities have laid the challenges the country of 850,000 faces in the years ahead, amid promises by all parties to share the wealth. That's not what the commoners are reporting so far, leaving them very doubtful their fortunes will improve during Ali's second term.
The oil has brought the poor some relief, such as better child care support, but the infrastructure projects which have boomed as the black gold flowed have also raised prices already going up due to global trends. The transformation has been swift since large deposits of crude were spotted off the country's coast, increasing more than four-fold the GDP in the last five years alone. Growth was measured at 43% last year as some 5,000 public works were launched.
But Georgetown only has to look West to Venezuela to see how such a fortunate find and rapid exploitation can turn into a curse, a trap politicians, like so many in similar situations across the world, said they would tip toe around. "How can we suffer from Dutch syndrome, we are not Dutch," joked a minister of this nation sharing a border with Suriname, a former Dutch colony. But critic doubt any trickle-down economics will make their way to the working poor there.
Critics Amanzia Walton-Desir says few have benefited from the boom. "We have a wealth entering this country like never before (but) the people are still poor." Major infrastructure projects make for good ribbon cutting, but sometimes do little to better people's lives. "The way the government lays out infrastructure projects and subsidies contribute directly to inflation," she deplores. "The easiest thing to do is spend money, it's even easier when it isn't yours," Civil society militant Cris Ram told AFP. Some of these projects, like a recently built hospital, have been little more than empty shells.
"There's no medical team, nurses or equipment, no supplies or electricity." Rather surprising in what is now an energy-rich nation. But Ali's People's Progressive Party supporters disagree, citing payments that have improved citizens' finances. The government has been “helping the people and giving us what we need," tells the Guardian bus driver Omadai Persaud. “We have free education, free university … hospitals and all resources,” she added, making her decision in the lead-up to the election a no-brainer.
But the opposition will continue following the money amid concerns of growing corruption. “A lot of our oil money is being wasted on projects that aren’t achieving their objectives,” said Aubrey Norton, whose party lost support in the election, coming in third. He stressed the need to look beyond oil, what some well-endowed Gulf states are currently doing. “We believe that we have to develop industries outside of oil, so we want to be involved in agro-processing, manufacturing, other areas. Oil is not an infinite resource … and if it is finished without us widening the base of the economy, we’re in trouble.”
RENTRÉE TURBULENTE
Nouvelle rentrée parlementaire, nouveau premier ministre en France, le cinquième en moins de deux ans, un portrait politique d'une instabilité quasi-italienne sur fond the manifestations et de grèves virant à l'émeute dans certains cas malgré le déploiement d'importants dispositifs de sécurité. Son prédécesseur, François Bayrou, avait à peine duré neuf mois, évincé par le vote de censure qui a suivi le retour des élus à l'Assemblée nationale.
Ce dernier avait cherché en vain de faire passer un budget d'austérité, prévoyant une réduction de déficit de l'ordre de 44 milliards d'euros, estimant intenable la fiscalité française. « Vous avez le pouvoir de renverser le gouvernement, mais vous n’avez pas le pouvoir d’effacer le réel » déclara le dirigeant sortant, un politicien de longue date, déplorant un «surendettement» du pays, une «addiction» de dépenses publiques que les Français ont pris l'habitude de «financer à crédit » .
Le résultat du vote était sans surprise. L'idée de supprimer des jours fériés avait à elle seule soulevé un certain étonnement dans ce pays où ils sont nombreux et vénérés. Le résultat du vote a donné lieu à plusieurs célébrations publiques, un «pot de départ» bien arrosé avec fromages et musique. Il s'agit de la première fois dans l'histoire de la Ve république fois qu'un gouvernment perd un vote de confiance. Refusant de faire appel à de nouvelles élections ou de démissionner, le président français a choisi un proche, le ministre des armées Sébastien Lecornu, pour tenter de former un nouveau gouvernement, un choix à nouveau rejeté par une gauche ascendante qui espérait voir un des siens occuper le poste.
« Emmanuel Macron s’obstine donc dans une voie à laquelle aucun socialiste ne participera. Celle qui a conduit à l’échec et au désordre et qui aggrave la crise, la défiance et l’instabilité, a réagi le Parti socialiste. Sans justice sociale, fiscale et écologique, sans mesures pour le pouvoir d’achat, les mêmes causes provoqueront les mêmes effets » . Une première réunion cette semaine lassait les socialistes "sur leur faim". Peu prometteur.
« C'est une décision du président de la république de perpétuer sa politique, estime quant à lui Manuel Bompard de La France Insoumise, plus que jamais la question du bras de fer, du rapport de forces et de la démission du président de la république s'impose. » Dur en effet de voir les choses changer dans les prochains mois qu'aura Lecornu pour « consulter les forces politiques représentées au Parlement en vue d’adopter un budget pour la nation et bâtir les accords indispensables aux décisions des prochains mois ».
Les mécontents n'ont pas hésité à se faire entendre le lors d'une première manifestation nationale pour « bloquer tout », la semaine dernière, provoquant des éclats dans plusieurs grandes villes du pays et menant à des centaines d'arrestations. Une autre avait lieu cette semaine, un jeudi "noir" organisé à travers le pays alors que Lecornu prenait les rênes de la nation. Les défis de la rentrée étaient bien exposés alors que le pays digérait la dégradation de la note de la dette, après l'annonce de l'agence de notation Finch, la faisant passer de AA- à A+. Selon Bayrou c'est le reflet d' « un pays que ses “élites” conduisent à refuser la vérité est condamné à en payer le prix».
FLYING THE FLAG
It's among the world's oldest and most recognizable flags, and is even found in national and regional flags around the world from New Zealand to Bermuda, the Union Jack. It was even Canada's national flag until it eventually got its own. Lately The Union Jack and England's St George's Cross flag have been more and more visible across Great Britain amid a widely popular campaign to "raise the colours".
But some are left feeling uneasy about the flag waiving. It seemed fitting that it all started shortly after England's lionesses won the Euro soccer tournament and organizers say it's meant to be a celebration of pride and patriotism, but amid current immigration crackdowns critics say it amounts to little more than jingoistic far right nationalism. Group Hope no Hate tied the campaign to "well-known far right extremists" finding an opportune moment to bind flag and racism. It wouldn't be the first time flying a nation's colours has been tied to extremism and racism.
England's flag, the red St George's Cross on white background in particular. After devolution gave powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the flag - which is represented in the Union Jack itself like Scotland's St. Andrews cross -, started to become increasingly tied to extremism, being a preferred choice of hooligans at soccer matches. After devolution a new English nationalism "rejected other nations" with the intention of "defending England and the rights of its citizens," because, unlike the Scots and the Welsh, there was no regional legislature to pass laws just for England, says Thibaud Harrois of La Sorbonne. This nationalism claims "once dominant England is now being poorly represented."
The Cross of St George was notably featured in a number of anti-immigration protests that have been popping up as the country wrestles with an influx of immigrants coming over the English Channel. This is hardly the only country to see its national flag taken over by extremist elements. Over the Channel France saw the same flag waving take place on a number of occasions, notably as Le Pen's Front National rose in popularity. "It's pretty systematic," tells Radio France Maud Chirio of Paris university, "all extreme right movements being nationalistic it is pertinent for them to use symbols such as the flag, as this identifies them as nationalists and prevents them from being marginalized."
The flag has also been widely used at Ralliement National rallies, though its popularity also rose as France became as soccer power. More recently Brazil has seen the national banner used by right-wing nationalists supporting populist leader Jair Bolsonaro as he navigates the country's justice system. The day of his inauguration Bol-sonaro waved the auriverde and proclaimed: "To-day is the day the people start liberating themselves from socialism and the politically correct... This is our flag and it will never be red unless blood is shed."
This provoked a campaign by critics to "give us back our flag" to prevent it from being a symbol of right-wing extremists or populists. It echoed campaigns by left-wing militants during the dictatorship of the 80s, observers say. Populist US president Donald Trump has made the flag an important part of his image, embracing and even kissing it during campaign rallies and wasting no time to plant two immense banners around the White House, even though one already flies on the roof of the building itself.
In Canada the 60th anniversary of the Maple Leaf this year became an opportunity to reacquaint Canadians with a banner which had for a time become a symbol of extremists during the contentious anti-vaccination and trucker protests of the previous years. It is now more than even being flown on cars and in homes, a symbol of unity in the face of a perceived growing US threat under its populist presidency.
Most groups using national flags as symbol, including in recent anti-immigrant rallies in Australia, tend to be right-wing, but not always. If anything Scottish nationalism and flag waving by the Scottish National Party seeks to break away from the UK with socialist ideals, notes Harrois. Algerians protesting their government's policies have also embraced the national flag recently, regardless of cultural or political cleavages.
LA BOLIVIE A DROITE
Presque vingt ans après l'ascension d'Evo Morales à la présidence bolivienne, les électeurs ont opté pour un retour du balancier en choissant deux candidats de droite pour se disputer le second tour de l'élection qui mettra fin au règne socialiste de ce petit pays d'Amérique du sud.
Mais le dirigeant d'origine autochtone sexagénaire qui s'était battu contre la pauvreté mais a perdu la faveur du public, n'est pas resté entièrement à l'extérieur de l'arène politique, prônant un vote en blanc pour protester contre les limites de mandat - qui l'empêchent de se présenter à nouveau - qui a récolté non moins de 20% des résultats.
Voilà qui lui a plutôt fait plaisir mais qui n'a pas manqué d'être dénoncé par une opinion publique las des nombreuses querelles intestines de son parti, le Mouvement vers le socialisme, poussant plusieurs à voter plus à droite en période de difficultés économiques. « Même des gens qui avaient plus d’affinités idéologiques avec la gauche que la droite étaient réticents » à confier un nouveau mandat à la gauche, résume à La Presse Gustavo Flores-Macías de l’Université Cornell.
Le pays andin était prêt à tourner la page, lui qui traverse une pénible période marquée par une inflation de 25% et une pénurie de carburant, alors que la Bolivie est pourtant riche en hydrocarbures, source de ses succès antérieurs. Résultat, les candidats en lisse au second tour, le sénateur Rodrigo Paz et l'ex-président Jorge « Tuto » Quiroga, ne cachent pas que le pays devra traverser de dures années en raison du besoin de mesures d'austérité nécessaires au rétablissement de l'économie plombée par la dette et les déficits.
A blâmer entre autre, selon Flores-Macías, un manque d'investissement dans l’exploration et les nouvelles technologies après une période de nationalisation de l'industrie des hydrocarbures. Paz, qui a récolté 32% des voix, a causé la surprise en finissant en tête de peloton malgré avoir limité les publicités coûteuses et les rassemblements importants, une montée notamment expliquée par le succès des vidéos tiktok anti-corruption de son colistier, qui ont connu un franc succès chez les jeunes.
« L’authenticité et la communication numérique ont pris le pas sur tout ce qui constitue l’appareil traditionnel des grands médias et de l’argent », explique à l'AFP Erick Hurtado, spécialiste en marketing politique. Mais alors qu'un vent de changement flotte sur la nation andine, le discours de Paz est perçu comme plus modéré que celui de son adversaire.
« Il ne représente ni les grandes entreprises, ni les libéraux radicaux, résume le sociologue Renzo Abruzzese sur les ondes de la chaîne Red Uno. Il incarne le citoyen ordinaire. » Un citoyen dont le projet de « capitalisme pour tous » semble avoir trouvé des adeptes dans le pays le plus pauvre du continent en quête d'une sortie de crise.
THE RIVAL CLAN
The projection of power and defiance of any Western-led global order was undeniable. After Washington's largely underwhelming military parade prepared with great haste this winter, Beijing held a massive display of weaponry in Tian An Men square to mark the anniversary of Japan's surrender, but also so much more, signalling an intention to end "Cold war mentality".
Days before Xi Jinping had gathered Russian leader Vladimir Putin and India's Narendra Modi in a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation attended by 20 world leaders in all, all looking for new leadership at a time of U.S. commercial tensions and American withdrawal from the world stage.
The parade wasn't the affair of a few squeaking tanks rolled out of World War II museums but advanced laser, nuclear ballistic missile and underwater drone technology. Attending were Putin as well as a North Korean leader who rarely leaves his country and Iran's president, all joined by dozens of other heads of state, including two Western leaders, all rather in the opposing camp of the Ukrainian war and NATO.
Jinping and Kim have both been supporting Moscow in its war on its neighbor, a war Washington has tried to end without success. U.S. President Donald Trump, whose view of Putin has soured and who has slapped Beijing with tariffs, mocked the gathering by writing on social media: "Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America."
The display showed how much China's arsenal has changed throughout the years, including everything from robotic wolves to hypersonic glide and cruise missiles which are unrivalled in the West and give Jinping the assurance to declare his nation fears no one. Beijing, which is rapidly building up its navy, not only has the numbers - due to its large population - but technological know-how to be a formidable military power, though observers, who will be studying the scene intensely, note much of the arsenal remains untested.
None of this is free and China is spending billions on its military hardware. This Spring it reported a military budget of $245 billion, second only to the US, but observers say this 1.5% of GDP figure is implausibly low. The U.S. Defense Department usually finds such official figures understated by anything from 40% to 90%. And China's economy isn't firing on all cylinders considering the global trade tensions with the US. By the time they bubbled over Beijing was weathering deflation along with a property-sector collapse.
The country's nominal GDP growth is less than half of what it was during the pre-pandemic years of 2017–19. Still China's technological prowess is making it a daunting opponent for the West, all the more as it teams up with other great powers such as Russia and India. Although there was at least a moment that brought the great middle kingdom's power some dose of humility, bordering on embarrassment.
Days before the parade, slogans appeared on a building in Chongqing calling for the end of Communist Party rule, no less. “Only without the Communist Party can there be a new China,” it read, as well as: “No more lies, we want the truth. No more slavery, we want freedom.” A remarkable feat considering the country's unmatched surveillance tools.
The author, Qi Hong, later showed police searching a nearby hotel where the projection had originated, thanks to a hidden camera. He was soon out of the country with his wife and children, telling the New York Times: "My only intention was to express myself. The party installs surveillance cameras to watch us. I thought I could use the same method to watch them." More of a projection of dissent.
50 ANS PLUS TARD
Certes la métropole de presque 10 millions est grouillante de manière générale, agglutinée autour du fleuve Song Sai Gon, artère importante où circulent de nombreux bateaux conteneurs, mais il se passe toujours quelquechose en particulier sur la place de l'union dans le centre de Ho Chi Minh Ville. Quand l'espace n'est pas occupé par un défilé ou une fête quelconque elle est prise d'assaut par des touristes qui envahissent le vaste espace piétonnier central pour admirer la statue de l'homme qui a donné son nom à la ville et l'âme au Vietnam moderne.
Parmi eux des groupes se tournent vers un édifice datant de plusieurs décennies couronné par une cage d'ascenseur. Récemment des panneaux ont été ajoutés avec l'inscription en anglais Landing zone et The last mission. Il s'agit en effet de l'ancienne ambassade américaine qui avait été capturée dans cette photo mémorable de citadins fuyant l'arrivée du Vietcong en tentant de s'accrocher aux derniers hueys quittant une Saigon tombée.
C'était il y a cinquante ans déjà, et le pays du sud-est asiatique, qui ces derniers temps craint plutôt les tarifs qu'une invasion terrestre, s'est transformé en véritable musée à ciel ouvert sur cette guerre qui avait clôt le chapitre de l'Indochine et infligé un camouflet à la puissance américaine. La présentation est faite sans rancune, les Américains sont bienvenus. C'est aussi vrai dans le musée de la guerre qui abrite des photos des atrocités commises par l'agent orange et des techniques de torture sanguinaires.
Autant de Vietnamiens s'y pressent que de visiteurs étrangers, grimaçant parfois en observant ces clichés de jeunes enfants déformés par les chimies modernes et la folie humaine. Mais l'exercice de mémoire peut être selectif. Le régime a en revanche fait beaucoup d'effort pour reléguer aux oubliettes l'histoire des Vietnamiens qui étaient dans l'autre camp, et poursuit une politique de discrimination qui ne permettra jamais au pays de 60 millions d'habitants de véritablement se réconcilier, selon l'auteur et recherchiste Nghia M. Vo.
Dans une lettre publiée dans le Usa Today il se dit regretter que "pour ceux qui ont combattu aux côtés des Etats-Unis, les cinq dernières décennies ont été marquées par la discrimination et l'effacement sous le régime communiste", eux qui sont toujours vus comme "des traîtres ou des marionnettes américaines".
On dénombre-rait 400000 responsables et officiers envoyés vers des camps de ré-éducation, qui ne bénéficient d'aucun soutien et sont exclus de la fonction publique, des personnes "sans dignité" dit-il. Autant de civils ont été "ré-éduqués", et c'est sans parler des deux millions de boat people qui ont quitté la patrie pour s'établir en occident.
Selon l'historien Christopher Goscha, cette "hemorrhagie interne du Vietnam moderne est la preuve que la réconciliation nationale a été vouée à l'échec." Ce mot n'est que de la belle théorie selon Vo. "L'histoire n'est pas seulement le souvenir des victoires mais c'est reconnaitre le coût de la guerre et les vies changées à jamais," écrit-il alors que des militaires pratiquaient leur défilé du 50e.
ELECTING A NEW POPE
At a time of upheaval and conflict, a voice of compassion and humanity has been silenced. In his final hours before passing on at age 88, weakened by illness but summoning the strength to one final time participate in the festivities of Holy Week, Pope Francis remained true to the priorities that marked his papacy, appealing for peace in Gaza and Ukraine, and for compassion towards migrants and victims of violence, in his final public appearance on Eastern Sunday.
Days before he had visited with prison inmates, once more reaching out to the marginalized after over a decade of moving the Vatican away from traditional conservative tradition to a more progressive style that reached out to homosexuals, increased the roles of women in the Church and called the death penalty inadmissible. He also urged the faithful to "listen with our hearts to the cry of the Earth and of the victims of environmental disasters and climate change, making a personal commitment to care for the world we inhabit."
It wasn't long before this very different approach drew the criticism of some conservative members of the clergy, particularly after he approved Church blessing for same-sex couples. "If a person is gay, accepts the Lord and has good will, who am I to judge them?" he famously said early in this pontificate, signalling his would be an inclusive papacy very different from that of his predecessors. But his shift also left many unsatisfied and frustrated by what they saw as half measures. He still rejected same-sex marriage and did not approve of a proposed Italian law that would have extended protections to LGBTQ people.
Some also criticized Francis’ reluctance to push for the ordination of women. “His repeated ‘closed door’ policy on women’s ordination was painfully incongruous with his otherwise pastoral nature, and for many, a betrayal of the synodal, listening church he championed,” stated the Women’s Ordination Conference. Pope Francis was honest about his own shortcomings. “We are often chained like Peter in the prison of habit,” he observed once in 2022. “Scared by change and tied to the chain of our customs.”
Francis was also panned for failures to address sex abuse scandals head on, discrediting Chilean abuse victims in 2018 and standing by a bishop linked to their abuser before he later realized his mistake and invited the victims to the Vatican. He eventually adopted new rules to hold top religious leaders accountable if they were responsible for sexual abuse or covering it up, but short of the transparency demanded by many.
Perhaps his frustrating and incremental steps were only meant to gradually ease the Church in a direction not all were willing to go, some observers ventured. As the Vatican turns to the election of a new pope this month it will find a college of cardinals which Francis has had time to shape in his image. Over the years he chose cardinals from smaller countries often forgotten by the Church such as Laos and Tonga, instead of considering more conservative bishops from larger and Western nations such as the US or Italy, a reflection of his own travels and willingness to reach out to more far-flung countries.
By the time of his death he had named some four fifths of the cardinals who will choose the next Bishop of Rome, that's slightly above the two-thirds needed to elect a new pontiff. But that doesn't mean the chosen cardinals will necessarily continue his legacy. In fact because of the diversity of Pope Francis' chosen picks, the next conclave may be long and difficult according to top canon lawyer Thomas Schüller. "I believe it will be a longer, more complex conclave, because the group of electors is heterogeneous," he said. "It will be exciting to see whether the reform-oriented group will prevail and agree on a candidate."
ENCORE SUJETS DE SA MAJESTÉ
A Kingstown, ville du roi mais qui n'a de royal que le nom, on conduit à gauche au long des routes cahotées et sinueuses qui grimpent et descendent au long de mille collines saupoudrées de maisonettes couleur pastel. Les guichets bancaires à la voix très britannique distribuent des billets où sourit encore cette regrettée majesté tandis que le cricket rivalise avec le foot au titre de sport préféré.
Comme plusieurs îles des Caraïbes, celles de St Vincent et Grenadines peuvent compter sur un patrimoine britannique remontant de plusieurs siècles. Mais celui-ci, comme ailleurs, est quelque peu remis en question depuis la mort de la reine Elizabeth II et la transition qui a porté Charles III au pouvoir. A l'époque l'actuel premier ministre de ce pays d'à peine plus de 100,000 habitants avait même qualifié l'idée d'appartenir à la monarchie britannique d'"absurde".
D'autant plus qu'on est passé d'un colonialisme britannique à un impérialisme américain qui déverse ses troupes par milliers avec chaque passage des immenses bateaux de croisière venus de Miami. "Le monarque britannique est notre monarque, résume Ralph Gonsalves, nous ne prêtons plus serment d'allégeance à sa majesté, nous le faisons aux citoyens de St Vincent et les Grenadines."
Mais trois ans après ces déclarations qui jadis auraient plus paraitre un cas de lèse majesté, on est loin d'être passé à l'acte. Pourtant la région ne manque pas d'inspiration à cet égard. A 45 minutes de vol la Barbade est la plus récente île à avoir abandonné la couronne, gagnant le statut de république en 2021. Il s'agissait du 14e pays à faire de la sorte. D'autres penchent dans ce sens, notamment une Jamaïque qui a fait part de ses intentions lors d'une visite du prince Harry.
Au Canada la position du Bloc Québécois est bien connue alors que plus récemment le chef néo-démocrate a dû en surprendre quelques-uns en déclarant lors d'un débat que son homologue bloquiste avait été aussi "inutile que la monarchie". Dans un tel environnement, à quand une république de Vincy?
"C'est au placard pour l'instant" résume Forrest Nichols, chauffeur et par conséquent expert des ruelles étroites et congestionnées de l'île qui donnent tant de peine aux visiteurs. Il y a d'autres chats à fouetter, comme ces artères martyrisantes et la corruption. Ce sont des enjeux de la campagne électorale qui bat son plein. L'irruption d'un volcan près de la capitale il y a quelques années a également fait plusieurs milliers de déplacés, certains étant encore réfugiés dans des camps de fortune.
Ce n'est pas tout, d'autres sans abris ont été victimes du passage de l'ouragan Beryl, aggravant la crise du logement. Le gouvernment signait récemment une entente avec une firme de Trinité et Tobago en vue de l'obtention de 300 logements pré-fabriqués. On espère pouvoir construire 1000 logements cette année, un chiffre énorme dans ce petit pays en manque de travailleurs qualifiés. S'ajoute à cette liste les troubles associés aux changements climatiques que le gouvernement ne nie pas. "Il ne s'agit pas d'un effort ordinaire.
Aucun gouvernement au monde ne s'engage à faire ce que nous faisons," estime Gonsalves, en mode électoral. Ses opposants du NPD s'attaquent plutôt au chômage qui selon leurs chiffres atteint 41% chez les jeunes. La crise constitutionnelle, s'il y en a une, devra bien attendre. Puis les Britanniques constituent encore des visiteurs de choix grâce aux liaisons de Virgin Airways au coquet aéroport d'Argyle.
ENCORE DIVISÉ?
Les communautés si sévèrement frappées par le séisme de magnitude 7,7 qui a ébranlé la Birmanie et la Thaïlande n'ont pas fini de compter leurs morts, mais la vie se poursuit néanmoins autour des décombres. Certains secours timides accourent, des convois transportant des vivres et des médicaments permettant aux citoyens des régions notamment frappées au nord du Myanmar de traverser cette époque noire, qui ne fait qu'aggraver une donne déjà difficile en raison du conflit armé.
Pourtant il ne s'agit pas de camions ou de véhicules militaires, mais de gestes salutaires de citoyens, d'entreprises ou d'organismes d'autres régions du pays, les soldats étant plutôt déterminés à poursuivre les combats. Les troupes de la junte on d'ailleurs tiré en l'air afin d'immobiliser un convoi humanitaire de la Croix-rouge chinoise, qui selon les autorités n'avait pas obtenu les autorisations nécessaires afin de circuler.
Les soldats estiment que les rebelles tirent «un avantage politique» de l'aide humanitaire qui circule tant bien que mal depuis le début de la crise, qui au dernier compte avait fait plus de 3700 morts dans ce seul pays pauvre et relativement isolé de la région. Des écroulements en Thaïlande voisine ont également fait plusieurs victimes, jusqu'au coeur de la capitale où s'est écroulé un immeuble en construction.
Le chef de la junte Min Aung Hlaing s'est d'ailleurs rendu à Bangkok pour participar à un sommet régional sur la réponse au séisme. Ce dernier avait fait un rare appel à l'aide internationale dans les premières heures de la crise. Or les observateurs ne comptent plus les entraves sur le chemin des secouristes. "C'est devenu un véritable désastre, résumait le rapporteur spécial de l'ONU Tom Andrews sur la réaction du régime, on sait que l'aide au Myanmar a été bloquée, qu'il y a eu des arrestations et des blocus dans les zones de contrôle où ils ne veulent pas que l'aide soit acheminée. Ils ont fait de l'aide une arme."
Le régime a décrété un cessez-le-feu plusieurs jours après l'incident du convoi provenant de Chine, l'allié indéfectible de cette junte qui a à nouveau saisi le pouvoir lors d'un coup d'état marqué par la dernière arrestation d'Aung San Suu Kyi en 2021. Mais cette déclaration n'a pas été respectée, plus d'une soixantaine d'offensives du régime ayant eu lieu depuis quelques semaines. “A un moment où le seul objectif devrait être d'assurer l'aide humanitaire vers les zones du désastre l'armée poursuit ses attaques, déplore à son tour Ravina Shamdasani, du bureau des droits de l'homme de l'ONU.
Nous faisons appel au retrait des obstacles à la livraison de l'assistance humanitaire et à la fin des opérations militaires." Les temps sont durs pour les agences de l'ONU. En raison des coupures américaines son Bureau de la coordination des affaires humanitaires, qui emploie plus de 2000 personnes à travers le monde, doit réduire son personnel de 20%. "Le contexte auquel nous faisons face est le plus difficile jamais connu pour mener notre mission, estime Tom Fletcher, Secrétaire général adjoint aux affaires humanitaires et coordonnateur des secours d’urgence. La communauté humanitaire était déjà sous-financée, débordée et littéralement attaquée. Maintenant, nous faisons face à une vague de coupes brutales des financements''.
INTO 2025
Days into the new year 2025 is already putting Western democracies to the test. Amid the G7 group of countries alone instability rocks a number of powers from Europe to North America as the new year is ushered in. While Canada's Trudeau government possibly lives its final weeks the incoming Trump administration has already lashed out against political opponents, the media, friends and foe alike.
The US was barely able to escape a government shut down one week before Christmas. In Europe meanwhile Germany and France are in transition as the first goes to the polls and the second tries to avoid a new election call. A bit further away in Georgia protesters are still spilling into the streets after what they view as having been an election interfered with to benefit a pro-Russian candidate.
Ironically, standing relatively quiet amid all this and surprisingly stable is a country usually known for its political chaos, Italy. Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has in fact praised her government as one living a rare period of calm amid the surrounding chaos and upheaval. The boot of Europe has had its share, and others' too, of short-lived govern-ments. Dozens in fact in the post-war era. Meloni embraced this rare moment - fleeting perhaps - of stability "compared to the political turbulence that several large European nations are facing".
France's Macron next door was until recently struggling to form a government after naming a new prime minister in the aftermath of the first removal of the head of government under the current republic. The country is also seized with the crisis in faraway Mayotte, ravaged by a recent cyclone. Germany meanwhile is carrying out its election after the collapse of its government in December, a campaign punctuated by a terror attack which killed five people. The suspect, a 50-year old doctor who came from Saudi Arabia in 2006, was reported as an Islamophobe who praised far-right groups looking to make a historic impact during the election.
Those groups had also collected the praise of billionaire and Trump's so-called "efficiency Czar" Elon Musk, who played no small role in the government shut down debate and will clearly have an influential one in the incoming administration. Musk was condemned by Berlin for election interference after backing the Alternative for Germany far right party, and even compared his public statements to Vladimir Putin's campaign of interference.
"They both want to influence our elections and support the AfD, which is hostile to democracy," noted Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) now sitting third in the polls, going on to say they both wanted "Germany to be weakened and pushed into chaos".
Everywhere countries were bracing for the change of government in Washington, threatening tariffs against its neighbors, China and Europe, but the US was itself in a state of upheaval after a terror attack sparked concerns of copycat incidents and narrowly averting a government shutdown while Maga supporters squared off against Republicans as well as Democrats in the lead up to inauguration day. The latest squabble involved an issue which galvanized GOP supporters.
Some immigration hardliners say visas for skilled workers take jobs away from U.S. workers, but proponents, which include Musk and Trump himself, say America benefits from hiring them as they draw talent from all over the world, talent rivals such as Canada would only be too happy to welcome themselves.
The northern neighbor meanwhile was the first to suffer from whiplash at a time of tariff threats as Trudeau's crumbling government struggled to resist calls for early elections. The first week of January Trudeau called it quits after weeks of turmoil and uncertainty. A week before Christmas Trudeau had orchestrated another cabinet change amid growing calls from both opponents and members of his own party to resign.
This time the NDP was calling for him to step down after months of propping up his minority government, but its leader wasn't necessarily ready to back a no confidence motion initiated by the conservatives. The grumbling has been intensifying within Trudeau's own inner circle, with Liberal MPs pressuring him to make up his mind about whether to resign, while a major business group decried the uncertainty and "chaos" in Ottawa. A majority of caucus members from Ontario "overwhelmingly" agreed he must resign, according to one MP, and others from his home province agreed Trudeau's time had come to step aside. Trudeau said he would resign as soon as a new party leader is chosen to compete in this year's election.
In the meantime Matthew Holmes of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce said business groups were edgy in view of the political drama. "There's just a vacuum right now and there's chaos at the centre," he told the Toronto Star. "We need clear actions from the government and the business community needs certainty."
WHAT NOW FOR NATO?
His party freshly elected, but without a majority, Christian Democratic leader Friedrich Merz wasted no time plunging into the debates consuming Europe as the Ukrainian war began a new year, specifically wondering whether NATO, as we know it, without the usual strong US backing, is on its last legs. The issue never seemed more pressing than after the disastrous exchange between the Ukrainian and US presidents during a visit they were supposed to reach a mineral agreement. Instead the Oval office encounter descended into a shouting match which set the relationship back at a time Kyiv, and by extension Europe, was becoming more vulnerable.
The Atlantic alliance had been through crises before, its very need questioned at the end of the Cold War, before new crises emerged, and old ones re-emerged. But now, although needed more than ever, Washington's isolationist posture and overtures to Russia caused alarm, and at the same time prompted questions about why the old continent had not moved more aggressively to bolster its own ranks and capabilities, especially after Russia's previous aggression in 2014. The likely new chancellor of the economic power at the heart of Europe committed to supporting Ukraine and bolster its defenses even before getting into the challenge that is coalition-building.
"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA," he said as electoral results were trickling in. Left to shape a coalition after obtaining 29% of the votes, Merz replaces center-left chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats registered a historic low of 16% after his government collapsed last fall, prompting the early vote. Snap elections have been the norm with other G7 partners, including France and, quite likely, Canada.
Like France, Germany has been jolted by an upswing of hard right votes, the Alternative for Germany finishing second with 20% of support, doubling its previous score - the highest score registered by such parties since WWII. But for now it is likely to remain ostracized by mainstream parties. Especially on the matter of supporting Ukraine, the latter speak with one voice. "There is a consensus that... funding for Ukraine has to continue," says Gesine Weber of the German Marshall Fund. "The AfD can on the short term most likely not influence it because there is a large majority of parliamentarians (supporting Ukraine), however the AfD might be able to influence public discourse as the biggest opposition party and then we must see whether there is an impact on public support."
The coalition will require weeks to take shape, but Merz, who is trying to get this done by Easter, is determined not to leave a void at such a critical time. European leaders are concerned Moscow and Washington are trying to work a deal to end the war with unfavorable terms for Ukraine, causing uncertainty for the continent as a whole for years to come. This concern grew after the White House clash, but Germany, like other European countries, voiced support for Kyiv.
"Germany together with our European allies stand united alongside Ukraine and against the Russian aggression, their defense for democracy and their quest for peace and security in ours," it stated. The first month of the second Trump administration alone has, to say the least, been trying for European leaders, wary of tariffs as well as security disengagement in Europe, while the US shows an unhealthy interest in Greenland. "I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but.. it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe," Merz said. "We are under such massive pressure from two sides that my absolute priority now really is to create unity in Europe."
This was almost putting Russia and the US in the same category, and at the UN that certainly seemed to be the case, the US joining Moscow by voting against a resolution condemning Russia's war. Other countries of the continent and alliance wasted no time showing their will to keep supporting Ukraine, France, the UK and even Canada raising the possibility of sending troops to back a ceasefire. There has even been mention of creating a nuclear umbrella for the continent. Turkiye, a member of NATO, was also hoping to have a role in whatever new defense strategy Europe would develop. Regardless of any mineral deals with Ukraine, the White House signaled it would be for Europe to provide security guarantees. These important future investments required in defence will not come cheap.
The sluggish German economy has already been a major issue of the election. Another hot topic was immigration as the campaign was marked by a number of violent incidents involving Islamist newcomers, including one attack the last week of the campaign, boosting the fortunes of the AfD, which also counted on the repeated support of US billionaire Elon Musk during the campaign in outbursts German officials have condemned as political interference. Merz criticized this after the election, but hopes Berlin and Washington can still enjoy close ties. The fate of some 35,000 US servicemen in the country, at a time of American disengagement, was anyone's guess. This weekend, days after meeting in Ukraine to voice support for Kyiv, European leaders and Justin Trudeau gathered in another summit in London, announcing a four point plan to defend Ukraine and end the war. Using a formula made famous during the Gulf War, the 18 leaders looked to develop a "coalition of the willing". One that would still need US backing however.
BRACING FOR 2.0
Officially the transfer of power in the United States was on January the 20th. But by then the incoming U.S. administration had gradually set the stage for the president's turbulent next four years. Well before inauguration day, Europe, China and the U.S.'s neighbors were threatened with tariffs and the returning leader had toyed with the idea of seizing the Panama Canal, buying Greenland and making Canada the 51st state, leaving analysts to wonder how this combination of aggression and ridicule would shape the years ahead.
Allies were preparing to welcome the new administration with a list of retaliatory tariffs and higher defense budgets to secure the world's largest island as observers pondered how many battles Washington was willing to wage at once and whether this would cause distractions from other pressing crises. But were these still allies, bullied despite their NATO membership in the fashion of the Art of the Deal? The turbulence hit the beltway first and foremost, where lawmakers initially struggled to pass legislation extending funding and averting another government shutdown.
While they were controlling both houses and the Supreme Court, Republicans were in fact divided and fighting amongst themselves in the lead up to the transition, sparking concerns as the new lead up to mid-terms gets underway. By then the look of American and world politics is anyone's guess.
In the days before the presidential transition, anticipating a vengeful final mandate by the businessman, outgoing leader Joe Biden, who had nearly disappeared from the world stage since stepping down as a candidate, raced to pardon his son and a number of prisoners on death row, secured more financing for Ukraine and made pre-emptive moves to protect certain categories of immigrants. He managed to secure an 11th-hour ceasefire in Gaza which would be for his successor to nurture.
Meanwhile controversy swirled over Trump's cabinet picks, leaving him to rethink his initial choice of attorney general, a former congressman facing criminal charges after a House Ethics Committee report alleged he potentially committed crimes, including statutory rape. Trump himself received a light sentence for his conviction in the Stormy Daniels affair. Joining the cast of characters was so-called efficiency czar Elon Musk, whose provocative social media posts were being investigated by the UK's counter-terrorism unit amid concerns the billionaire was looking to destabilize the Labour government.
The Trump adviser labelled British Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips a "rape genocide apologist" and said she should be jailed. Phillips told the BBC that such "disinformation" was "endangering" her, amid reports she was being shadowed by security in her displacements. Germany was no less alarmed by the dual US-Canadian citizen's propping of extreme right wing party AfD.
In his farewell address Biden warned the US threatened to become an "oligarchy" run by billionaires. Meanwhile the southern California fires failed to do what natural disasters usually do, and that is unite Americans to support the survivors. Instead the inferno gave way to finger-pointing by the president-elect, blaming the Democratic governor for his response and raising the possibility of making disaster relief conditional. The battle for 2028 it seems has already begun.
Meanwhile neighbors Canada and Mexico, who have sent firefighters and water bombers to fight the flames, showed the true spirit of regional cooperation, as an administration bent on admonishing them takes over.
GROËNLAND LIBRE?
Après avoir fait bien rire tout le monde, elle a eu un autre effet cette idée saugrenue d'acheter le Groënland, l'ile la plus importante au monde regorgeant de ressources naturelles, comme les Etats-Unis auraient pu le faire avec la Louisiane ou l'Alaska: celui de donner un nouvel élan à cette ancienne idée de se séparer de la couronne danoise.
Avec ses nouvelles connections aériennes, ses ressources encore intouchées et sa position stratégique alors que la planête se réchauffe, ce territoire de 57000 habitants avoisinnant le Canada serait peu peuplé certes, mais plus que d'autres pays insulaires de la planête. Le Tuvalu en compte à peine 10000, pas bien moins que le Nauru ou Palau encore, isolés du monde dans leurs confins océaniques.
"Il est temps de prendre un pas et de former notre avenir, ainsi que de décider avec qui nous allons coopérer et développer des partenariats commerciaux", déclara le premier ministre Mute Egede lors de son allocution du nouvel an. L'idée d'indépendance a fait du progrès depuis 1953 quand l'ile a cessé d'être une colonie danoise pour éventuellement établir son propre parlement. Il y a deux ans le Groënland proposait une première ébauche de constitution.
"Il nous est venu le temps de prendre le prochain pas, dit-il. Comme d'autres pays dans le monde nous devons oeuvrer afin de retirer les obstacles à la coopération - que nous pouvons décrire à titre de boulets du colonialisme - et aller de l'avant."
La proposition de Donald Trump, la seconde en six ans visant le Groënland, a provoqué une levée des boucliers à Copenhague, qui a aussitôt décerné plus d'un milliard d'euros à la défense du territoire de 2 millions de kilomètres carrés, un geste symbolique qui en préparait peut-être un autre.
Plus récemment la première ministre danoise affirmait que "Le Groënland est aux Groënlandais," une déclara-tion qui a fait plaisir aux sécessionsistes. L'Europe n'a pas tardé à réagir également à ces déclarations expansi-onnistes délirantes, s'engageant à protéger ce terrain jusqu'à tout récemment plutôt ignoré.
L'ile est sujette à toutes les convoitises, hébergeant une base militaire et regorgeant de plusieurs minéraux recherchés par les grandes puissances, notamment des matières associées aux technologies de pointe. Mais pour l'instant le Groënland tente de développer son tourisme et dépend toujours de la pêche et des versements généreux du petit royaume européen.
Alors que les citoyens doivent se présenter aux urnes en avril aucune date n'a encore été fixée en vue d'un éventuel référendum sur la question, que propose de soumettre au peuple éventuellement le jeune premier ministre de 37 ans. En attendant la Russie suit avec intérêt les déclarations américaines sur le Groënland, elle qui considère l'Arctique comme sa chasse gardée, y versant des milliards en investissements malgré les sanctions et la guerre en Ukraine. Les enjeux pourraient vite s'y déplacer.
THE FIGHT FOR TURKIYE
In an age where authoritarian regimes are seeing their influence rise, some populations are willing to stand up for democratic rights and confront the strongmen of the world at a time freedoms are being restricted in many countries. The most impressive protests in a dozen years have been sweeping Turkiye after opposition figure and Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested days before he was to be nominated as the opposition Republican People’s Party’s presidential candidate, years before an expected challenge to the decades-long rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Hundreds were arrested as protesters clashed with police in major cities across the country in the most important unrest since 2013, leaving some demonstrators dead. Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian over the years, and while the government denied any involvement in the decision, pointing to the independence of the judiciary, the strongman's hand could not be far removed from the stated accusations of links to corruption and terror organizations. Imamoglu denied the allegations and called them politically motivated.
"I will never bow", he said after being remanded in custody - pending trial. The sidelining of political opponents has been common practice in countries such as Belarus and Russia, where Alexei Navalny died in a penal colony just over a year ago, after years of being a thorn in Vladimir Putin's side. Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya took on the role after her husband, Syarhei Tsikhanou-ski was arrested after running in the 2020 presidential election against strongman and Putin ally Aleksandr Lukashenko.
The man often called Europe's last dictator is beginning his seventh term in office after January elections broadly seen as neither free not fair. Not without irony he claimed Belarus "has its own standards for holding elections, which can become an international benchmark." Ten Belarusian human rights groups stated that the vote was "held in a deep human rights crisis, in an atmosphere of total fear caused by repressions against civil society, independent media, the opposition, and all dissenters."
Imamoglu's arrest sparked widespread protest, notably at universities, who engaged in boycott and faced violent crackdowns. Over 1500 people were arrested within days including dozens of journalists, increasing concerns about the fate of democracy in such a key strategic NATO member the West is relying on this stand up to Putin. Reporters Without Borders denounced the journalists' arrests as "scandalous", local repre-sentative Erol Onderoglu saying it "reflects a very serious situation in Turkey".
The leader of Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party, or CHP, Ozgur Ozel, met with the incarcerated mayor in a West Istanbul prison, emerging to state he was “ashamed on behalf of those who govern Turkey of the atmosphere I am in and the situation that Turkey is being put through.” With two other CHP district mayors languishing behind bars, he spoke of “three lions inside, standing tall, with their heads held high … proud of themselves, their families, their colleagues, not afraid.”
With Imamoglu removed from the post after his arrest, prosecutors asked for his posters to be removed from public spaces, but supporters defiantly said more portraits of the suspended mayor would appear across the capital shortly. “You will see more of Mayor Ekrem on the balconies of houses, in squares, on the streets and on the walls,” the head of the CHP’s Istanbul branch said on social media. Imamoglu, 47, denied the charges against him, which included suspicion of running a criminal organization, accepting bribes, extortion, illegally recording personal data and bid-rigging.
The U.N. Human Rights Office condemned “widespread detentions” and asked that “all those detained for the legitimate exercise of their rights must be released immediately and unconditionally.” While the presidential election isn't scheduled for another three years there are rumors Erdogan may move them up to secure another term and extend his 22 years in power.
Carnegie Europe says growing democratic crackdowns of the sort in a number of countries show that “autocrats and would-be autocrats” are “much more connected in their policies and goals than we have been assuming,” adding that these leaders are “sniffing the change in the geopolitical air, and reckoning they’re on the cusp of a new era.” That slide toward autocracy indeed seems quantifiable. According to Sweden's V-Dem Institute the world counted more autocracies in 2024, defined as governments with “insuf-ficient” levels of democratic freedoms, than democracies for the first time in more than two decades, 45 in all were “autocratizing” last year.
ENCORE DÉCHIRÉ
Déjà divisé afin de mettre un terme à la guerre en 2011, le Soudan pourrait-il être scindé à nouveau alors que se prolonge le plus récent conflit à le décimer depuis plus d'un an? C'est un scénario de plus en plus probable alors que l'armée reprend le contrôle de la capitale près de deux ans après le début des éclats avec les Forces de soutien rapide.
Cette reprise est plutôt symbolique car le FSR domine le paysage au sud et à l'ouest du pays de 50 millions d'habitants, notamment la région du Darfour qui avait tant fait parler du Soudan lors des atrocités des décennies précédentes. Celles-ci se poursuivent toujours, tout comme les massacres qui ont fait des dizaines de milliers de victimes ces dernières années, laissant plus de la moitié de la population entière dans le besoin urgent.
Le FSR travaille depuis quelque temps déjà sur un projet de gouvernement parallèle, comme il peut en exister dans cet autre pays instable de la région, la Libye. Ce gouvernement aurait pignon sur rue à Nyala, une importante ville du Darfour, et serait en mesure d'imprimer sa propre monnaie et son propre passeport.
Cette perspective alarme les instances internationales dont l'Union africaine et les Nations unies, alors que certains pays de la région, dont le Kenya, semblent plutôt approuver un tel projet. L'UA a partagé sa "condamnation" d'une telle division, soulignant les dangers de partition du pays. Etats-Unis et Union européenne ont également affiché leur opposition, une rare occasion de trouver une ligne commune étant données les tensions actuelles.
L'UE a réitéré son "engagement en vue de l'unité et de l'integrité territoriale du Soudan", craignant que le projet ne mette en péril les aspirations démocratiques de ses citoyens. Le RSF s'est engagé à créer un état laïc et non centralisé, déclarant la "naissance d'un nouveau Soudan". Selon Jonas Horner du European Council of Foreign Relations une telle division "ne ferait que reconfigurer le conflit" tout en destabilisant davantage le pays.
En attendant la région elle-même baigne dans l'instabilité, le Tchad voisin se disant préoccupé par "des menaces explicites à l'égard de la sécurité et de l'intégrité territoriale" de la part de Khartoum, des "propos irresponsables qui peuvent être interprêtés comme une déclaration de guerre." Le Tchad accuse le Soudan de le menacer d'instabilité en orchestrant des rébellions tout en appuyant le groupe extrémiste Boko Haram.
Anciennement partie du Soudan, le Soudan du sud plonge également dans la crise, l'Allemagne y fermant son ambassade en raison de l'instabilité qui place le pays "au bord de la guerre civile". Selon Berlin le président Salva Kiir et son rival le vice président Riek Machar ''sont en train de plonger le pays dans une spirale de violence". Ce sont des tensions dans le nord du pays entre les troupes gouvernementales et les rebelles qui agitent le pays.
Les tensions grimpent "notamment alors que nous approchons des élections et alors que la compétition politique augmente entre les joueurs principaux," selon le représentant de l'ONU Nicholas Haysom. Le manque de confiance entre Machar et Kiir en est largement responsable selon lui. "La désinformation et les discours haineux font monter la tension d'un cran et creusent les divisions ethniques et augmentent les craintes, nous devons conclure que le Soudan du sud risque de replonger dans une guerre civile."
THE CUTS THAT RUN DEEP
When it hasn't been targeting countries directly with tariffs and intimidation tactics, the new US administration has impacted nations around the world by proceeding with massive internal changes to its bureaucracy, slashing staff and budgets in departments ranging from foreign aid to health agencies, disrupting everything from humanita-rian supplies to monitoring diseases at a time a number of them are threatening vulnerable populations, including Americans.
The budgetary measures have admittedly gone too far in some areas, cuts to units monitoring Ebola and bird flu, at a time the latter has made victims in the US and decimated chicken stocks, having been reversed after stunning international observers and alarming experts. More recently the USDA, which among things supports education, child development and food security in poor countries, was forced to hire back all 6,000 of its fired workers.
The White House's announcement it was pulling out of the World Health Organization, at a time a new covid variant has been raising concern in China and a disease in Congo has lethally spread, killing dozens within hours, has left physicians across the world fearing the worst, including a possible failure to prevent a future pandemic. The result is changing the image of the US into that of an unreliable health or defense partner, disrupting international systems and hampering cooperation on a number of levels.
Weather experts in Canada say they are having a hard time hearing from their NOAA counterparts, the sharing of information, so critical to developing detailed forecasts, with implications on both sides of the border, having been severed. Likewise cuts expected at the Environmental Protection Agency have sparked concern of not being able to prevent future disasters in shared waterways. This upheaval is taking place as Washington's decision to pull out of the Paris climate accord, not for the first time, has also alarmed countries battling against global warming, doubly concerned about America's determination to slash mitigation budgets and increase its reliance on fossil fuels as it seeks to power energy-hungry data centres at the heart of the Artificial Intelligence revolution.
Among all the measures impacting organizations well beyond the beltway, cutting USAID and US foreign aid in general, slashing some $60 billion in funding, had an immediate effect on the ground, stopping the delivery of medical and food supplies in countries in a state of emergency. Among them, Congo will see aid group Action Against Hunger no longer be able to treat tens of thousands of malnourished children this Spring, putting them in “mortal danger.”
In Ethiopia this means an end to food assistance for more than 1 million people, according to the Tigray Disaster Risk Management Commission, while in South Sudan, the International Rescue Committee said it closed a project providing access to quality health care and nutrition services to more than 115,000 people.
From Afghanistan to the Philippines everything from food aid to health care and other supports have been terminated, ending America's reputation as a humanitarian benefactor while curtailing its ability to develop a capital of sympathy. Upheaval and dismissals at the US' intelligence agencies is also hampering international intelligence cooperation, and the White House's picks of director of national intelligence and director of the FBI "will likely force key U.S. regional allies – like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan – to (partially) shift away from Washington’s network and establish intelligence pacts outside of Trump’s influence," according to a critique in The Diplomat.
Asia is not alone to be concerned about the future of key intelligence alliances, threats by a US official to remove Canada from the Five Eyes also sparking questions about Washington's divisive moves since January 20th. The decision to temporarily suspend US intelligence to Ukraine, along with military aid, possibly as a negotiating tactic to force Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table, also showed how quickly Washington could change its stance and alter alliances. This has in turn left some allies to consider limiting intelligence with a partner increasingly cosy with Moscow.
Cuts to the US Agency for Global Media, which funds pro-democracy media outlets, likewise had global implications, the silencing of networks such as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe undoing decades of efforts to combat authoritarian propaganda at a time of growing misinformation. Sometimes it wasn't cuts hampering business but the inability of public servants to do their work that had an impact far and wide.
Under new rules millions of them were forced to abandon telework and returned to offices which were often not ready to receive them. According to CNN in one Department of Health and Human Services office there was no Wi-Fi or even full electricity and other offices were missing desks and other key equipments. More uncertainty about cuts and budgets with consequences across the world came from the courts, actively engaged in reviewing impacts to US department budgets. While a court decision ultimately allowed USAID cuts to continue, Supreme Court justices rejected the administration's emergency request to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid.
Another judge later ordered thousands of federal workers to be reinstated. Other court battles are pending. The result of all this is a cataclysm of uncertainty affecting support programs across the globe in unsettled times, and transforming the image of a country which once valued soft power influence.
A LA DÉRIVE
Elles voguent au large de Panama, du Nauru ou de l'Australie, mais font toutes face au même défi, celui d'être englouties progressi-vement par la montée des eaux liée aux changements climatiques. Certaines de ces îles ont déjà commencé le déménagement de leurs populations, malgré la résistance farouche de certains résidents de longue date dont la culture est liée à cette terre ancestrale.
D'autres tentent par tous les moyens de trouver une solution, souvent coûteuse, parfois ingénieuse, à l'énigme climatique de notre époque. Les réfugiés du climat font partie de l'actualité, notam-ment en Australie, où l'on prépare déjà l'évacuation des iles Coco, menacées comme de nombreuses îles du monde par l'érosion des côtes.
Ces 27 petits atolls à presque 3000 kilomètres de la côte ouest de l'Australie abritent quelques 600 habitants dont on propose la relocalisation lors des prochaines décennies, l'option la plus «viable pour protéger les vies d'une manière socialement, économiquement et écologi-quement respectueuse» selon un rapport du gouvernement, qui ne précise pas la destination.
Face à une montée de eaux de l'ordre de 18 centimètres d'ici 2030, les élus régionaux regrettent que le gouvernement n'envisage pas des stratégies à long terme qui permettraient de rester sur place, n'excluant pas des recours devant les tribunaux. Il ne s'agit pour l'instant que d'une proposition, mais ce genre de transfert n'est pas sans précédent. Les îles Fiji ont déjà relocalisé des centaines de leurs communautés depuis une décennie. De plus l'an dernier l'Australie concluait un traité avec le Tuvalu permettant à ses habitants le droit de vivre down under si le pays devenait invivable.
A l'autre bout du monde la relocalisation de l'île panaméenne de Gardi Sugdub ne s'est pas faite sans résistance. Alors que 1000 personnes ont quitté cette communauté de cabanes de bois et de tôle collées les unes sur les autres l'an dernier, 100 autres sont restées, incapables de trouver où se loger sur le continent ou refusant de quitter la maison de leur enfance. Première île à subir ce sort dans la région, il ne s'agira pas de la dernière puisque selon les experts la plupart des îles de la Guna devront être relocalisées dans l'avenir.
Au large du Sierra Leone, même désespoir face au besoin d'abandonner l'île de Nyangai. Peu de coins du monde sont épargnés. Mais souvent il s'agit de pays entiers menacés par les flots. Longtemps symbole des effets des changements climatiques et de la montée des eaux, le Vanuatu a vu le niveau de la mer augmenter autour de l'archipel de 6 millimètres par an entre 1990 et 2010, soit bien plus rapidement que la moyenne mondiale.
Et la tendance n'y est pas à la baisse. Ce pays insulaire de 10000 habitants, tout comme d'autres tels la Papouasie-Nouvelle Guinée ou la Micronésie, auraient déjà perdu «plus de 1% de leur PIB en raison de la montée des eaux», selon Rosanne Martyr, de l'institut Climate Analytics. Le Vanuatu ainsi que d'autres sont par conséquent à la recherche de «solutions de financement climatique afin de construire des infrastructures résilientes» selon un ministre.
Possiblement à l'instar du Fiji, un genre de marché d'obligations vertes pour obtenir des fonds en vue de développer des projets environnementaux. D'autres états du Pacifique ont choisi de taxer les combustibles fossiles. Le Nauru quant à lui monnaye depuis novembre sa nationalité pour financer un déménagement futur de sa population menacée par la montée des eaux, malgré les risques associés à ce système de «passeport doré».
LE VOISIN INFLUENT
Il s'agit d'un des grands attraits de la capitale laotienne, le marché à ciel ouvert de nuit à deux pas du mythique Mekong dans cette région relativement tranquille de l'Asie du sud-est. Pas loin des nombreux temples scintillants surveillés par des bonzes vêtus de robes couleur safran et des bouddhas de bronze, il expose ses nombreux étalages multicolores quotidiennement, mais le choix offert ne semble pas émouvoir un visiteur chinois logé au V hotel à quelques rues: "c'est à 90% du vêtement" se plaint-il.
En effet peu d'artisanat local mais des montagnes de chemises, vestes et autres accoutrements, produits du voisin vietnamien entre autre, mais surtout portant des étiquettes en chinois. Ce pays de 7 millions d'habitants n'a pas besoin d'un rappel de sa géographie fragile, coincé entre les grandes nations que sont la Thaïlande, la Chine et le Vietnam, d'où provient la grande majorité de ces tristes produits marqués "New York", "Paris" ou "Sanamonica" à l'orthographe douteuse, semblables à ce que l'on peut retrouver partout ailleurs.
L'influence, l'invasion silencieuse diront certains, du "parrain" voisin, prend plusieurs formes au Laos, notamment avec ses projets de "nouvelle route de la soie", ici comme ailleurs. Déjà elle remplace l'architecture du protectorat français d'antan par des développements massifs des temps modernes, avec ses centres d'achats et immeubles commerciaux sans charme poussant comme des champignons, résultat d'une spéculation chinoise dopée par son importante diaspora, le "réseau de bambou".
Le train à grande vitesse qui a considérablement réduit le trajet de Vientiane à Luang Prabang, l'ancienne capitale, est un petite tronçon d'une ligne reliant la Chine à la Thaïlande qui ne fait que passer par ce pays d'arrière pensée, comme il pouvait l'être perçu à l'époque par les maitres d'Indochine. Le projet titanesque, que n'aurait jamais pu se payer le Laos, comme tant de projets de l'initiative ceinture et route, a été financé à 70% par la Chine, le reste revenant à Vientiane, en passant par une banque évidemment chinoise. Les projets du genre sont nombreux, posant entre autre des barrages sur les cours d'eau en vue de faire du Laos "la batterie de l'Asie du sud-est" en exportant sont électricité. Mais du coup en augmentant sa dépendance envers l'empire du milieu.
"Quand les Chinois pissent dans le Mekong ça coule sur nous" a un jour prononcé un proche du régime laotien. Cette invasion est d'autant plus importante au marché de nuit au long du quai Fa Ngum, produits après produits provenant du grand frère au-delà des montagnes plutôt que de l'artisanat lao. Le Laos n'est pas le seul à faire face à cette avalanche de produits bon marché. La region entière souffre de ce déversement de produits chinois, de Ho Chi Minh ville à Bangkok en passant par Jakarta, pourtant plutôt éloignée.
La raison principale de ce dumping se doit notamment au ralentissement de la consommation chinoise. Résultat: une chute de produits manufacturés de l'ordre de 11% en Thaïlande ces dernières années alors que l'industrie indonésienne du textile a perdu des milliers d'emplois selon le magazine Economist.
Ces pays ont décidé de répliquer en imposant des taxes à l'importation ou en limitant, voire interdisant les achats sur les sites de commerce électronique des géants chinois. Ces mesures protectionnistes ont connu plus ou moins de succès ailleurs, les plus récentes ayant été annoncées aux Etats-Unis, un pays qui menace également d'imposer des tarifs contre l'Asie du sud-est pour corriger sa balance commerciale.
Le flot chinois reste malgré tout difficile à arrêter, la zone de l'Association des nations de l'Asie du Sud-Est ayant conclu une entente de libre-échange avec la Chine il y a plus de 20 ans. Puis ce dumping permet aux étalages de Vientiane d'offrir des produits plus abordables dans un des pays les plus pauvres de la région. Triste consolation.
LASHING BACK
The scene was quite moving. On a mid-September day over 100,000 Canadians packed Parliament Hill to honour their neighbors in their darkest hour, a gathering so unique it was eventually marked on a bubble gum card. A few years after that tribute to 9-11, fans were booing the US national anthem at hockey games in protest of the war against Iraq. Relations between the US and Canada have had their ups and downs.
This Winter before tariffs were even in effect on goods exported to the US the damage was already done between the two, even three North American neighbors. Canadians and Americans booed each other's national anthems at sports events and snowbirds cancelled their trips south while a Buy Canadian movement was hard to distinguish from a boycott of US products. It wasn't just the threat of tariffs, which had been hovering for weeks, but the tone of a disrespectful and unappreciative US leader. It also didn't help that the tense-filled early days of February came shortly after Amazon shut down its operations in Quebec.
The online giant denied it had anything to do with a warehouse joining a union, but Quebecers had seen this before from American corporations, from McDonald's to Walmart, shutting down operations after workers elected to express their right to unionize. For many, perhaps just for a time, enough was enough. Ontario put on hold its decision to ban stocking American alcohol in its LCBO outlets, but consumers had made up their mind to drop California wines for European or Chilean ones while Canada provided strong alternatives to the harder stuff.
In fact searching for Canadian substitutes to popular American products became quite the trend, even a national Winter sport, but one not without its challenges. The maker of a baseball cap popularized by Ontario premier Rob Ford with the inscription "Canada is not for sale" struggled to find a domestic manufacturer able to satisfy the surge of some 45,000 orders he soon received. The trade crisis in many ways has shown, as the pandemic had before, how dependent Canada was to foreign manufacturing and processing, from the confection of masks to refining oil. In an ironic twist, the great white north was finding out what some in the US administration were complaining about: the outsourcing of production which had over the years caused many jobs, and in fact capabilities, to be lost.
Lists of substitute items flooded the internet while grocery, liquor and other stores made a point of lining shelves with Made in Canada signs. Their accuracy however sometimes left to be desired, prompting some to develop an app to help consumers determine if a product was in fact made in Canada after scanning the code bar. A movement calling for a ban of Amazon in Quebec over the closure of local operations grew with the rare wave of pan-Canadian patriotism. The neighbors down south, it seemed, had touched a nerve.
Some of it reached surprising proportions: "I have rarely said this in my life but: Go Trudeau! Give them hell, your hour has come!" opined a separatist Montrealer who in normal times would vote Yes in a future referendum. On the political scene premiers lined up behind a suddenly surging outgoing federal leader, his Conservative opponent even briefly going so far as to say something nice about him as he struggled to find his own voice in a national debate which became radically different from what it was just weeks ago. How much of an impact would this have on the election campaign? Certainly the narrative has changed from axing the carbon tax. Who is more likely to be tougher on Trump is now the more probable debate sure to dominate the coming election by many accounts.
And this vote may come sooner rather than later, not just because the opposition promised to bring down the government at the first occasion, but because Liberal candidate Mark Carney, who is sky rocketing in the polls, could call an election right away if he is elected Liberal party leader. But despite the show of unity Canadian leaders are aware there is work left to be done domestically. First Alberta remains an outlier due to its dependence on energy production, and second inter-provincial trade barriers need to go.
Solving that issue may go further than any boycott of American goods, some analysts note, since Canada's internal trade represents the larger share of its GDP. And after all the interconnected nature of production in North America means boycotts could impact Canadian jobs as well. "Supporting Canadian busi-nesses is important, but the approach needs to be realistic and beneficial to everyone," wrote one commentator on Reddit. "Instead of extreme measures, let’s focus on practical ways to strengthen our economy without hurting consumers and small businesses." While some have committed to cutting travel to the US, something which may bring more business to Canadian destinations, "What happens if Americans do the same to us?" he asked.
In Quebec a poll revealed three quarters of participants said they would reduce travel to the US and consumption of US goods. Of course the low Canadian dollar may have played a part in this, one of the many effects of the simple threats of US tariffs - which ironically made them more bearable to Americans by making Canadian imports cheaper. Among the boo birds, there was no doubt everyday citizens pondered their own way of voicing their discontent. Not quite comfortable enough to join the jeers at the Raptors game, Joseph Chua sat in silence instead of standing during Star Spangled banner, and considered other ways to protest.
"We were already talking about what businesses are Canadian, specifically what are American, specifically what to avoid. I definitely will be trying to avoid American products and groceries," he said. And while more efforts are being made by some to read labels in grocery stores more closely to make out where their food comes from, there's also a limit to what some are willing to do in protest. "I will not be stopping to consume US platforms," said one Ottawa resident, drawing the line at cancelling Netflix.
TOUS À BORD?
L’annonce ferroviaire est tombée à un drôle de moment, alors qu’un train de marchandises accidenté bloquait la circulation des inter-cités et après une tempête de neige qui avait paralisé le transport en commun dans les trois grandes métropoles de l’est canadien. Toute la gamme des difficultés dans la mire du projet semblaient illustrées en temps réel sur les antennes de télévision.
Après des années d’analyses et d’étude le gouvernement du Canada, dernier pays du G7 sans train à grande vitesse, annonçait le consortium élu pour faire progresser le chemin de fer rapide de Toronto à Québec. Windsor devra attendre mais plusieurs petites stations, de Peterborough à Trois Rivières allaient être reliées. Éventuellement.
Il faut dire que ce genre de projet remonte à plusieurs décennies, mais ces derniers temps les projets nationaux ont la cote: voir est-ouest plutôt nord-sud sur un continent où le voisin n’a plus la faveur du peuple. En fin de compte à «Alto » de décider du tracé définitif de ce rêve lors des cinq prochaines années au coût de 3,9 milliards de dollars. D'ici là aucun véritable échéancier ou coût final, seulement une lueur d'espoir d'un gouvernement, lui, sur le départ.
« On entend souvent que les trains ne sont pas assez rapides, pas assez fréquents et qu’ils sont trop souvent retardés parce qu’on n’a pas une voie dédiée aux passagers, a déclaré le premier ministre Justin Trudeau. Le service n’est tout simplement pas à la hauteur des Canadiens, mais ça va changer. »
Il faut l'espérer parce qu'au même moment le déraillement d'un train de marchandise, qui a priorité sur le transport passager sur ce même réseau ferroviaire, retardait ou annulait la circulation des trains VIA du corridor clé rejoignant des provinces regroupant plus de la moitié de la population canadienne. Ce partage des voies ne peut certes pas durer mais sera la réalité pendant plusieurs années encore.
Par ailleurs le transport ferroviaire léger dans trois métropoles de cette même région laissait à désirer après une semaine de tempêtes de neige qui a retardé les utilisateurs de Toronto à Montréal, où le REM si récemment inauguré, a été paralisé et fait l'objet d'une enquête. On se serait cru à Ottawa, où le train léger souffrait toujours et encore, au long de ses trois lignes, dont deux fraîchement inaugurées.
Les leçons ont été cinglantes ces dernières semaines: LRT à Ottawa et REM montréalais manquent de fiabilité, ayant été mal conçus pour nos hivers rigoureux. Incroyable. D'ailleurs cet argument n'avait-il pas dans le passé été avancé lors des débats sur le chemin de fer à haute vitesse, plutôt coûteux, dans ce pays trop grand à la population trop éparpillée? Des sommes au-delà de 100 milliards ont été évoquées pour mener ce projet à bien, mais l'occasion est bonne pour faire fonctionner une économie menacée de tarifs par son partenaire commercial principal.
« On va bâtir un projet qui sera économique pour les Canadiens, a ajouté Trudeau. On doit s’assurer de coûts responsables pour cet investissement. En même temps, on sait que le Canada est un grand producteur d’acier, d’aluminium, de cuivre, de ressources de grande qualité avec des entreprises de grande qualité à travers le pays, qui peuvent contribuer à ce projet. »
LE DÉMÉNAGEMENT
L'idée paraît farfelue, déplacer une capitale de 16 millions d'habitants sur 1000 kilomètres, un méga-projet comme peuvent en rêver les émirs richissimes de la région du Golfe persique. Le nouveau site de la capitale iranienne serait d'ailleurs pas si loin des villes de l'excès de Dubai ou d'Abou Dhabi, sur le Golfe d'Oman au eaux turquoises.
Mais le rêve est ni entièrement nouveau, car il fait partie du discours des dirigeants de la république islamique depuis des années, ni sans exemple concret dans d'autres pays autoritaires. De Birmanie en Indonésie, en Egypte même, ces projets pharaoniques ont caressé l'imaginaire, parfois pour mieux exercer leur contrôle, parfois par nécessité, comme dans cette Jakarta menacée par les eaux.
En Iran, c'est pour échapper à une pollution légendaire entre autre que l'idée circule, et a été reprise dans le discours du nouveau président Massoud Pezesh-kian. Mais on ne s'est pas seulement contenté de la répéter mais de proposer un site bien précis, dans la région du Makran, face aux Emirats et juste à l'ouest de la frontière pakistanaise. Le projet est de la trempe des créations titanesques de cette région de l'or noir, mais les sanctions économiques permettront-elles un tel excès? L'idée est possiblement de réduire leur impact entre autre.
D'une part la logique serait, en plus de désengorger Téhéran, de répandre le développement à une autre région du pays, comme on a pu le faire au Brésil avec le développement de Brasilia, et avec la relocalisation de la capitale nigériane depuis Lagos. Un ministre iranien a évoqué Makran à titre de "futur centre économique de l'Iran et de la région". Selon Banafsheh Keynoush, de l'Institut international d'études iraniennes, le site proposé a un intérêt stratégique.
"L'Iran cherche à concurrencer les ports maritimes de Dubaï et Gwadar", dit-elle sur les médias sociaux, y voyant d'ailleurs la possibilité de limiter l'effet des sanctions en développant le commerce dans l'océan indien tout en renforçant l'influence dans le Golfe persique. Son développement pourrait créer de nouveaux liens gaziers avec la Chine et le Pakistan. Keynoush ajoute qu'elle y connait "une des côtes et dunes de sable les plus splendides", ce qui fait d'ailleurs craindre l'impact environnemental d'un tel projet, un impact qui fait craindre le pire dans le cas du déplacement de Jakarta au nouveau site de Bornéo.
D'ailleurs emménager dans cette région aride déjà touchée par les changements climatiques serait de la folie pure et simple rien que pour son impact environnemental selon certains. "Les températures vont continuer à s'élever avec le dérèglement climatique, entraînant une série de problèmes, fait noter à France 24 l'analyste Jonathan Piron.
La région étant dépourvue d'eau, il va falloir installer des usines de dessalement géantes. Mais elles coûtent très cher, nécessitent d'être alimentée par des centrales électriques et créent de gros problèmes de pollution". Puis le projet nécessiterait une climatisation importante rendue difficile par la crise énergétique du pays.
LE VOTE ANNULÉ
L'automne avait laissé le pays, ainsi que le reste du continent, dans un état de choc. Premièrement parce que l'élection avait, contre toute attente, donné vainqueur un inconnu issu de l'extrême doite, puis ensuite parce que le scrutin avait été annulé, soupçonné d'avoir été fortement influencé par une campagne de médias sociaux sans précédent fortement imprégnée d'une ingérence russe. Depuis la Roumanie vit des heures d'incertitude dans un monde plongé dans l'instabilité.
C'en était de trop pour le président Klaus Iohannis, lui qui était déjà menacé de destitution, qui en fin de compte a annoncé sa démission "afin d'épargner à la Roumanie et aux citoyens roumains une crise", en prévision d'un nouveau vote au printemps. Or cette crise bat déjà son plein, même si la nouvelle a été accueillie avec liesse par des manifestants qui se sont emparés des rues, et une opposition, qui n'a jamais pardonné l'annulation de l'élection.
Accusé de mettre en place un véritable "coup d'état" le sexagénaire au pouvoir depuis plus de dix ans a affirmé "n'avoir jamais violé la Constitution". Qualifiant la démission de "victoire du peuple roumain", le vainqueur surprise du premier tour, Calin Georgescu, a lancé: "il est temps de renouer avec l'État de droit. Reprenons le second tour".
Un autre chef de parti de l'opposition a déclaré sans gêne, dans ce pays dirigé sans merci par Ceausescu pendant des décennies: "Nous avons réussi à pousser au départ l'individu le plus arrogant de l'histoire de la Roumanie". Mais l'affaire de l'annulation du vote n'est pas terminée pour autant, la Commission européenne ayant ouvert une enquête sur les accusations de soutien illicite par le biais de Tiktok, une plateforme chinoise qui a fait l'objet de plusieurs enquêtes pour ingérence ailleurs dans le monde.
Entre temps les partis roumains font front commun contre cette montée sans précédent de l'extrême droite, plusieurs partis pro-européens souhaitant présenter un candidat unique: Crin Antonescu. A 65 ans cet ancien président du Sénat pro-européen a été jugé capable de séduire l’électorat social-démocrate et celui des libéraux.
"Il a fallu trouver une personnalité qui réunisse les deux électorats," résume le politologue Sergiu Miscoiu, qui le qualifie de "bon orateur". Antonescu s'était déjà présenté à la présidentielle de 2009, terminant troisième. Depuis la chute de Ceaucescu le Parti social-démocrate (PSD) et le Parti national libéral (PNL), tous deux pro-européens, se succèdent au pouvoir, leur exclusion du second tour vient donc bouleverser la donne.
Anciennement affilié à l’extrême droite, Georgescu participe au scrutin en tant qu'indépendant, sans parti ni fonds de campagne, et prononce un discours radical familier qui dénonce la mondialisation, l’immigration, l’OTAN, l’Union européenne, les vaccins de COVID et l'appui financier à l'Ukraine, de quoi plaire à la fronde anti-occidentale et pro-russe du continent.
SCRUTIN ENTRE LES BALLES
Son pays est en pleine crise économique et proie à une violence extrême de la part des gangs qui terrorisent les politiciens et font fuir les touristes, mais le jeune président Daniel Noboa a tout de même crié victoire au premier tour de l'élection écuadorienne, son parti ayant récolté le plus de voix, soit 44,1% du vote, mais pas assez pour éviter un second tour.
La rivale de la gauche, Luisa Gonzalez, qui aspire à être la première présidente élue de ce pays de 17 millions d'habitants, le suit de près avec 43,9%, préparant un second tour encore plus serré que le scrutin précédent il y a 15 mois. Celle-ci serait-elle près de lui ravir le poste lors de ce qui a l'apparence d'un référendum sur son court mandat?
En quelques années le taux d'homicides a explosé de 400% dans ce pays rongé par une guerre au narcotrafic liée à sa situation géographique stratégique sur la route de la drogue latinoaméricaine vers les grand marchés de l'ouest. Plusieurs apprécient cependant les efforts du jeune dirigeant de 37 ans dans ce combat sanglant qui l'a obligé à décréter l'état d'urgence.
Les observateurs huma-nitaires prétendent cependant que l'armée a été abusive dans l'exercice de ses fonctions, notamment après la découverte de la dépouille de quatre jeunes dont les corps calcinés ont été retrouvés près d'une base militaire. Les soldats étaient bien en évidence lors de l'organisation et la logistique du premier tour, alors que la frontière était fermée pendant trois jours. Les militaires voulaient éviter un nouvel assassinat après celui d'un candidat d'envergure lors de la dernière campagne.
"L'Équateur traverse un moment très difficile, je pense que c'est la pire crise depuis notre retour à la démocratie" il y a presque un demi-siècle, estime l'analyste politique Leonardo Laso. Pas moins déterminée à mettre fin à la crise sécuritaire, l'ex-deputée Gonzalez prône une approche différente. "Il est urgent que nous changions le pays, non pas avec des déclarations de guerre, qui ne mèneront nulle part, mais en bâtissant la paix", a déclaré cette dernière. Celle-ci a causé une surprise d'envergure alors que certains prognostics annonçaient Noboa gagnant dès le premier tour.
"Il s'agit d'une lutte à la David et Goliath," dit-elle, ce qui "montre que les gens veulent du changement." L'économie a notamment été pertubée par la crise sécuritaire, qui a découragé les investissements vers ce pays traditionnellement stable et paisible d'Amérique du sud, qui a le malheur d'être coincé entre le Pérou et à la Colombie, grand producteurs de coca. Noboa a dénoncé de «nombreuses irrégularités» lors du premier tour même si les missions de supervision électorale estiment ne pas avoir observé de «fraude» ayant pu « altérer les résultats».
Il estime avoir obtenu un « meilleur résultat » dans certaines provinces que les chiffres du dépouillement officiel, même si le résultat final n'a pas encore été affiché. Le chef de la Mission électorale de L'UE Gabriel Mato, a indiqué pour sa part n’avoir « pas un seul élément objectif indiquant qu’il y a eu le moindre type de fraude» et « regrette profondément » que la polarisation des débats «ait été associée à un certain récit de fraude ». Pour le politologue Santiago Cahuasqui « c’est la première fois » en un demi siècle que l’Équateur « possède un tel niveau extrême de polarisation».
WAR IN 2025
Drones versus drones, targeting communications connectivity and EMP weapons - as war continues to rage in Eastern Europe and global rivalries intensify in a time of shifting world order, offensive action isn't limited to conventional methods such as small arms fire, mortar or tank firing.
At the end of December, the war of the 21st century was in full display in the battle of Kharkiv, in northern Ukraine, where Kyiv's forces sent an all-robotic assault against the invaders in the form of drones in the air supporting automated ground units below, all the tools of Terminator in a war which has claimed thousands of human lives on both sides of the border. While minelaying drones took to the skies gun-armed bots rolled below, some carrying a Browning 12.7 mm machine gun, according to Forbes.
"We are talking about dozens of units of robotic and unmanned equipment simultaneously on a small section of the front," boasted a spokesperson for the 13th National Guard Brigade. Sea drones and terrifying so-called dragon drones, spewing thermite, which is not unlike throwing molten lava onto a battlefield, have been part of Ukraine's arsenal as it uses technology to try to compensate for its dwindling troop levels.
All technology has its weaknesses however, notably radio-waves which, blasted at incoming technology, can fry its electronics before it hits a target. The United Kingdom is notably working to deploy its Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon, which can hit targets a mile away at minimal cost, according to the Telegraph.
“We are already a force to be reckoned with on science and technology, and developments like RFDEW not only make our personnel more lethal and better protected on the battlefield, but also keep the UK a world leader on innovative military kit," said the country's minister for defence procurement last summer. “As we ramp up our defence spending in the coming years, our Defence Drone Strategy will ensure we are at the forefront of this war-fighting evolution.”
It's not yet the great EMP weapon some fear may one day threaten to plunge countries into the stone age, but possible baby steps leading there. In the mean time drone operators are developing ways around the more common defenses put up against them: signal jamming. To accomplish this some UAVs are tethered by the way of an ultra-thin fibre-optic cable than allows them to fly undetected and unhindered by jammers. Ukraine is experimenting with such devices in its war against Russian positions.
"This is a technological war," tells the CBC, a member of the Ukrainian military. "It is our job to develop and stay ahead." This is certainly true to both sides of the battlefield, as Russia has made use of similar devices as well, making the search for ways to neutralize the less-dectable, jam-proof wired drones the new high-tech race of the battlefield. In the great tech battle being waged connectivity is key, and severing it and the cables that make it possible can be a strategy with an impact at the military and civilian level as well.
The recent targeting of undersea cables by suspected Russia-backed and Chinese-backed ships in Europe and Asia are growing threats against the tech infrastructure and connectivity of the West and its allies. Shortly after the new year rang in such a telecommunications cable was damaged off Taiwan just days after Moscow was accused of similar suspected sabotage in the Baltic Sea off Finland, among NATO's newest members. Helsinki seized the ship.
These were among the latest incidents in a string of suspicious activity which included damage to two fibre-optic cables in the Baltic Sea last year near Sweden, another recent NATO member. A Chinese vessel was placed under investigation by Swedish authorities after that incident. The alliance has since deployed new assets in the Baltic Sea in an operation called "Baltic Sentry" to deter such attacks.
Suspected in the Baltic incidents are low-tech saboteur vessels circulating without proper insurance, believed to be behind everything from sabotage operations to efforts to circumvent sanctions faced by Russia since it launched the war in Ukraine. What it lacks in tech this "shadow fleet" compensates in numbers as Russia is suspected of having as many as 1,400 ships. In January a meeting of NATO's Baltic states focused on "measures required to secure the critical underwater infrastructure" and "respond-ing to the threat posed by Russia's shadow fleet," according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Days later an investigation was launched after a cable linking Sweden to Latvia was also damaged.
LE CONTREPOIDS
Se tourner vers l'Europe? Non l'idée n'est pas nouvelle, elle refait d'ailleurs son apparition occasionnellement lorsque le Canada connait une période de tension avec son voisin américain. Il y a déjà cinquante ans un papier du secrétaire d'état aux affaires extérieures Mitchell Sharp proposait une "troisième option" afin de faire face aux tensions apportées par la présidence de Nixon en pleine période de crise économique, celle de faire contrepoids au géant du sud en tissant des liens plus étroits avec les maitres du passé, les nations du vieux continent.
C'était ça ou préserver un statu-quo plutôt intenable ou sinon approfondir les relations avec les Etats-Unis. En fin de compte c'est cette dernière option qui a été retenue, avec le libre-échange bilatéral puis trilatéral, que l'on marque régulièrement lors du sommet Trois Amigos, réunissant les dirigeants nord-américains. Cependant ce sommet n'a pas eu lieu l'an passé, alors qu'il devait être organisé au Canada. Un autre sommet est prévu au Canada cette année, celui du G7 qui regroupe les puissances européennes et le Japon.
Est-ce un signe du besoin de raffermir les liens avec l'UE? Il y a dix ans l'idée a également croisé les esprits alors que l'environnement économique subissait d'importants change-ments, le premier ministre Harper voyant le salut dans la capacité de "diversifier nos liens économiques", son ministre du commerce se penchant sur la perspective de "nouveaux marchés... bien au-delà de l'Amérique du nord" puisque "nous ne pouvons pas dépendre d'un seul marché". Fait intéressant, le gouverneur de la banque du Canada à l'époque, Mark Carney, qui brigue la candidature du poste de chef du parti libéral, et du fait, de premier ministre, s'accordait à dire que le Canada était "surexposé aux Etats-Unis et sous-exposé" à ces autres marchés en pleine croissance.
Avec le temps le Canada a rejoint la Commission de l’Accord de partenariat transpacifique global et progressiste, dont il était le président l'an dernier, et a conclu une entente de libre échange avec l'UE, même si certains membres, dont la France, s'y sont opposés. Le Canada dépend d'un autre pays pour plusieurs de ses biens importés, mais il s'agit de la Chine. Le Canada a même vu naître une nouvelle frontière terrestre avec l'UE lorsqu'il s'est entendu pour diviser l'ile Hans avec le Danemark, mettant fin à des années d'un différend plutôt rigolo.
Mais la menace américaine de l'actuelle présidence, qui n'a rien de si drôle, pourrait-elle pousser le Canada vers l'UE? Il faut dire que le libre-échange avec l'Europe n'a pas plus réduit sa dépendance envers les Etats-Unis (75% du commerce) que le papier de la troisième option. « Du point de vue politique, je pense que c'est invraisemblable, livre à La Presse Justin Massie, spécialiste en politique étrangère à l'UQAM. Mais le Canada pourrait chercher à se rapprocher de manière beaucoup plus profonde avec l'Europe. C'est une idée que je défends depuis des années. »
Un rapprochement à la norvégienne peut-être, fortement intégrée à l'UE sans y être membre. Confronté, comme plusieurs autres pays, à la chèreté, le Canada pourrait se tourner vers le vieux continent en matière de télécommunications, le prix des services cellulaires y étant beaucoup moins cher, ou pour l'alimentaire, Carrefour étant un grand absent du marché canadien, lui qui est si visible en Europe mais aussi ailleurs dans le monde. La chaine Super U a sa seule enseigne nord-américaine... à Saint-Pierre au large de Terre-Neuve. En revanche le Canada pourrait finalement développer son réseau d'exportation energéti-que pour livrer ailleurs qu'aux Etats-Unis, et davantage diversifier la clientèle de ses minéraux. Ou l'idée n'est-elle, encore une fois, que passagère?
ON THE BRINK?
After years of lying precariously on the brink of full-out war over a mineral-rich region amid ethnic tensions, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo moved even closer to a regional conflict following the recent incursion of Rwandan troops in support of M23 rebels as they advanced to seize the Eastern city of Goma.
The new wave of violence sent hundreds of thousands of refugees, not for the first time, fleeing the conflict, displacing a longstanding humanitarian catastrophe compounded by the attacks of multiple rebel groups. Last week East African leaders sought to calm tensions by organizing a summit in Nairobi to bring together the leaders of the two disputing countries, but Congo's Tshisekedi declined to attend.
The conflict has been dragging on for decades in the aftermath of the Rwanda genocide which sent refugees fleeing into neighboring Congo, some of whom Kigali accuses of being behind the atrocities. Kinshasa has accused Rwanda of "declaring war" by sending its soldiers into Congo to back the M23 rebels, which have been supported by Kigali to defend Tutsis it says are being persecuted by Hutus in Congo. Kigali claimed it was acting in a self-defense and accused Kinshasa of harboring actors responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
The recent violence has killed hundreds and resulted in the death of peacekeepers who are part of a mission in place since 1999 to monitor the peace process of a previous conflict between Congo, Rwanda and Uganda. The latest violence provoked protests and unrest in Kinshasa where demonstrators attacked foreign embassies representing countries they say have done nothing to condemn Rwanda's actions.
The international community's intervention had previously ousted the rebels from Goma. While M23 is leading the offensive against Kinshasa's troops, it represents but one of some 100 militant groups active in the country. "The difference today is that it's more than just the M23," explains Rob Kabamba of Liege university. "There's a whole coalition of Congolese groups... whose claims go beyond the usual talk of protecting Tutsis. It varies from the need to improve living conditions to the legitimacy of democratic institutions."
Some groups go as far as to claim the current Congolese government isn't legitimate after what they consider sham elections in 2018 and 2023. Nor is Rwanda the only country eyeing Congo's riches, Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania and even Kenya, which sought to organize the latest summit, are closely following who controls North-Kivu's many resources, notably mineral resources such as cobalt, coltan and gold.
But Rwanda is Kinshasa's main concern and the government refuses to negotiate with the M23, which it considers a terrorist group. "The signs are unmistakable," said Congo's foreign minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner at the UN. "Rwanda is preparing to wage carnage with a brutality which harkens back to the darkest hours of our history." Not willing to let history repeat itself, Tshisekedi vowed Congo's response would be rigorous.
LOIN DE LA PAIX
Presque dix ans après l'accord de paix qui devait mettre fin à la violence en Colombie, celle-ci reprend de plus belle alors que la production de cocaïne atteint des sommets. En janvier le président Gustavo Petro décrétait l'état d'urgence après une semaine d'affrontements terrifiants entre différents groupes de guérilla, faisant 100 morts et 20000 déplacés en quelques jours. Il peut sembler bien lointain cet accord de 2016 conclu avec les Forces armées révolutionnaires de Colombie (FARC), qui se sont mises à épouser une approche plus politique que martiale.
L'Armée de libération nationale (ELN) cependant avait gardé le maquis. Non seulement ces derniers restent toujours actifs, menant à des éclats avec les narcotrafiquants du nord du pays, mais des anciens membres du FARC qui ont repris les armes dans le sud s'opposent à leurs anciens frères de combat, prenant la nation entière en étau. Après des décennies de guerre contre le narcotrafic, celui-ci dicte encore et toujours le cours des événements en Colombie, notamment dans le nord où fleurit cette culture lucrative.
C'est dans cette région, dans le département de Bolivar, où l'ELN se livre à une lutte féroce avec le cartel de du Clan del Golfo, tandis que plus au sud le groupe "Calarca", qui négocie la paix avec le gouvernement, s'oppose violemment à celui d'"Ivan Mordisco", qui rejette ces efforts. L'armée colombienne est en un premier temps spectatrice dans cette montée de violence, s'occupant de venir en aide aux populations prises entre les tirs.
"Nous avons aidé à la sécurité et la logistique et plus de 19 800 personnes ont été accueillies dans des refuges", résumait le général Erik Rodriguez. Les populations civiles ont entre autre cherché refuge au Venezuela, un pays lui-même peu épargné par la crise, qui a ouvert des centres de refuge près de la frontière. Mais si les forces colombiennes ne sont pas encore directement impliquées dans ce conflit mêlant guérilla, narcos et groupe paramilitaires, ça ne va pas durer.
La reprise des violences constitue un échec pour Petro, cet ancien rebelle gauchiste arrivé au pouvoir, comme d'autres avant lui, déterminé à mettre fin aux éclats. Ce dernier a dû couper court les négociations avec l'ELN, qu'il accuse de commettre des "crimes de guerre". Il estime que le groupe a "emprunté le chemin de Pablo Escobar", et par conséquent "a choisi le chemin de la guerre", ajoutant qu'en fin de compte il "aura la guerre".
Un triste dénouement dans ce pays longtemps rongé par le conflit qui tentait ces dernières années de redorer son image par le tourisme. Selon l'ONU la production de coca a augmenté de 53% par rapport à l'année précédente en 2023, représen-tant 253000 hectares de cette culture lucrative dont le trafic a augmenté la criminalité au long de son parcours, notamment en Equateur et au Mexique mais également dans les Caraïbes où une flambée de violence a mis 12 de ses nations dans la liste des plus meurtrières au monde. Il s'agissait de la dixième année de suite que la production de poudre augmentait, remontant aux débuts des accords de paix. Ceux-ci laissent par conséquent de plus en plus a désirer.
TRUDEAU'S FALL
The location was familiar and indeed significant, the porch of a cottage in the outskirts of Ottawa where the Canadian prime minister addressed his countrymen with regularity to keep them updated on the fight against the covid pandemic that was keeping them locked up at home. While the setting of Rideau cottage may have harkened back to a time when Trudeau rose to the occasion, leading the country in the fight against the pandemic, it also reminded some members of the public of a difficult period marked by widely unpopular covid mandates and the Emergencies Act, which in time mined his popularity and eventually gave the Conservatives a clear path to victory in 2025.
Nearly five years after that health crisis erupted, and nearly a decade after becoming the country's leader, Justin Trudeau chose the same setting to announce he would step down as Liberal party leader to allow someone else to run against the Pierre Poilievre Conservative freight train dominating the polls for over a year. The announcement was by then no longer a surprise and had been widely expected in fact after weeks of pressure not only from opposition politicians, including key partners that helped prop up his minority government, but within the Liberal party as well.
After the resignation of a number of his deputy minister and finance minister on the day she was to deliver her fall economic statement, that was too much to bear. "As you know I am a fighter," he said in his first TV address in weeks, adding "It has become obvious to me, with the internal battles, that I cannot be the one to carry the Liberal standard in the next election." He reiterated he didn't think his opponent, whose party is comfortably leading the Liberals in polls, was the right person to steer the country considering his stance on climate change and social policies.
It didn't take long for Poilievre to release a video noting every Liberal MP and "potential Liberal member-ship contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years," pointing to high inflation and rising crime as well as the housing crisis. He reiterated calls for an immediate federal election. But Trudeau said he would stay on as Liberal leader until a new one is chosen, launching a snap leadership campaign in an election year marked by the challenge of the incoming US administration.
The Conservatives have been releasing similar campaign-looking videos of the sort for months, helped by healthy party coffers. Some of the slogans of axing the taxes, fixing the budget and building the homes have already grown old months before an expected early election. Trudeau leaves the political scene undefeated after winning three elections and prolonging his second minority mandate with the help of opposition support, but byelection losses, MP departures and dropping polls brought an end to a leadership initially launched under the international splash of "Trudeaumania".
The departure of Chrystia Freeland in December had made staying at the helm untenable. Like other leaders in the West from Britain to the United States next door, Trudeau was swept by the winds of change after a long tenure. Remarkably the prime minister seemed to think the leader eventually chosen by his party would be able to somehow eke out a win in a coming confidence vote, but opposition leaders made plain they would oust the Liberals at the first occasion.
Such a vote of confidence is expected as soon as parliament resumes after the current prorogation period, which has shuts down the work of the House of Commons until late March. A new party leader would emerge on March 9th. Soon after Trudeau's announcement potential contenders started joustling for position, among them cabinet members but also the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England; the person who was rumored to take over Freeland's job, prompting her to quit the government in a storm pre-emptively.
Time was of the essence for the party to choose a leader in time for an election campaign that looked more and more like a victory lap for the opposition. This did not prevent Freeland and Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor, from tossing their hats into the ring despite slim to non existent chances of success. As consolation, the leadership winner automatically becomes prime minister.
Carney could accomplish this without even holding a seat. Freeland, however, runs the risk of repeating the short tenure of Canada's sole female prime minister, Kim Campbell, if she were to win the leadership. Both candidates gave signs early on they may be willing to bring changes to the carbon tax, which is highly unpopular among many Canadians despite delivering regular cheques to those living in participating provinces, taking away a Tory slogan.
CANADA'S NEW PM
Mere days into his new role as Canadian prime minister Mark Carney was taking off on a foreign visit to France and the UK in an attempt to reinforce ties with "reliable allies" which spoke volumes about the close trans-Atlantic ties and frigid relations with the US administration. The post-Trudeau political transition has hardly been conventional. By electing their new leader, Canada's Liberals chose the country's prime minister at a time of tense trade frictions with the neighbor to the south.
In a landslide win Carney, 59, took nearly 86% of the vote in the first ballot, amounting to the coronation of a non-elected official some feared, but convincing enough to rally the troops, including his leadership rivals, to take on Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. Carney, who becomes a PM without a seat, in fact welcomed his Liberal opponent, Chrystia Freeland, into his cabinet, but not Karina Gould, another rival who ran against him.
Well before taking office Carney acknowledged the current challenges, including an increasingly aggressive US administration “will take extraordinary efforts... We will have to do things that we haven’t imagined before, at speeds we didn’t think possible,” but said he was bullish on the country's future seeing “big changes, guided by strong Canadian values.”
The former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England skyrocketed in popularity, quickly becoming the candidate preferred, not only among Liberals but in the country as a whole, to take on Donald Trump, even making the Liberals competitive nationally after being 20 points behind the Tories for the last year. Recent polls even had the Liberals leading the Tories nationally for the first time in three years.
But Carney struggled during a French TV debate and his difficulty explaining his financial holdings has been the subject of Conservative attacks, and will remain in the crossfire in the weeks ahead as the country heads straight to the polls. Carney could become Canada's most short-lived prime minister if he fails to upset Poilievre in the general election. In the mean time he wasted no time reaching out to the US administration, before his swearing in, but made plain there would be no meeting until the US toned down the rhetoric.
His first trip abroad, to Paris and London, symbolized the importance Europe was taking at a time of frigid US ties. Carney and Trudeau had by then agreed on a rapid transition. The latter, who in his final speech said the country of 41 million is facing "a nation-defining moment" leaves the highest office in the land his head high despite the party's downfall in the last year.
Trump's tariffs threat enabled him to once more play the kind of leadership role he had displayed during the pandemic, uniting the provincial premiers and Canadians against a foreign threat. While the Liberals have been pressured to call an election ever since a deal with the opposition NDP collapsed, leader Jagmeet Singh, who is tanking in the polls, said he may once again be willing to support the Grits in exchange for measures to protect Canadians affected by the tariffs. Carney however seemed ready to head right into a federal election, now that his leadership is secured with approval numbers even Trudeau had not obtained.
PUTTING THE BREAKS ON FAST TRACKING?
Amid cries in favor of national unity in the face of threats from the southern neighbor, Canada has seen the rise of separatist sentiment, not in French-speaking Quebec, where the approach has been to raise unified elbows like it's 1812, but in Alberta, which has long been alienated by Ottawa's energy policy, or this time, the lack of it.
To calm concerns, the federal government has toned down the green energy focus of the Trudeau years, promising in fact not only to reconsider building more pipelines in order to make the country an energy superpower, but also fast track major infra-structure projects. This attempt to quell Western alienation has however raised concerns in another community, that of the nation's Indigenous peoples, a reminder oil and the country's first people don't always mix so well.
Concern rose again recently when Alberta and Ontario inked a deal on pipelines to force Ottawa's hand, despite concerns by Indigenous people and environmen-talists. "These MOUs are about building pipelines and boosting trade that connect Canadian energy and products to the world," said Alberta premier Danielle Smith.
A group of Ontario First Nations filed a constitutional challenge against bills to speed up such energy projects. Before the pandemic changed the conversation in early 2020, protests erupted across Canada after arrests made during demonstrations against pipeline construction through British Columbia's Wet'suwet'en First Nation territory. The protests notably included blockades and rail disruption.
This summer Native groups warned against plans to fast-track investment projects without their input, as Ottawa rushed a first series of meetings to quell concerns. Alberta itself has seen confrontation over such matters in the past. In 1988 the Lubecon Cree of Little Buffalo, in northern Alberta, set up blockades and asserted their independence after the oil boom of the 1970s on their land scared away moose and other game that were such an important part of their heritage.
This brought the intervention of armed police who put an end to the protest and arrested over two dozen participants. At the heart of the dispute was the fact the Lubicon Lake Band was missed by Treaty Commissioners during Treaty 8 negotiations at the end of the 19th century and not allocated a reserve, missing out on receiving treaty benefits due to its remote location, over 460 km north of Edmonton.
Decades of disputes followed until a settlement 30 years after the 1988 incident, which included 246 square kilometers of land, $113 million in financial compensation and funding for much-needed infrastructure like housing, roads, and utilities. But some community members regret the disastrous results of oil development on the land.
"You fly out of the airport area and you see the beauty, the initial beauty of the boreal," told PBS community resident and activist Melina Laboucan-Massimo. "And then as you get more north going towards the mines, you start seeing Mordor, no longer forest, basically complete defores-tation down into the Earth’s core." Many worry this is what fast-tracking projects has in store, including fewer environmental surveys and more devastation.
AUX ARMES
Alors que l'Iran et Israël respectent un délicat cessez-le-feu après leurs échanges de tirs, le Japon met à l'essai un premier missile sur son territoire tandis qu'à l'autre bout de la planête le budget militaire ukrainien passe d'un milliard en 2022 à 35 milliards en 2025.
C'est à l'image de l'Otan qui annonce une augmentation sans précédent de ses dépenses militaires. Ses porte-paroles aiment dire qu'ils s'arment pour ne jamais avoir à faire la guerre et mieux préserver la paix, mais celle-ci paraît plus lointaine que jamais. C'est pourtant cette paix que voulait préserver à tout prix l'ONU lors de son lancement il y 80 ans.
A présent l'heure est grâve sur plusieurs fronts. N'a-t-on pas juste frôlé le désastre nucléaire, non au Moyen-orient, mais en Asie lors des échanges de tirs entre l'Inde et le Pakistan? On perd le compte des crises, et pour cause, selon des experts l'heure n'a jamais été aussi grâve de manière générale depuis la fin de la Seconde guerre mondiale.
Les neuf forces nucléaires du monde ont toutes augmenté leur arsenal en 2024, et si l'on pensait éliminer la menace nucléaire avec ces frappes américaines en Iran, détromprez-vous, disent les observateurs, Téhéran n'a subi que des pertes relativement modestes, lui permettant de reprendre son programme nucléaire, qui selon le régime, se veut purement énergétique. Et les frappes ont même possiblement renforcé ce besoin de se doter d'une force de disuasion nucléaire.
De manière générale le désarmement nucléaire semble avoir atteint un cul-de-sac selon l'Institut de recherche international sur la paix de Stockholm, notant le gel du dialogue entre Washington et Moscou sur les questions stratégiques. D'habitude ouverte au dialogue avec la Russie de Poutine, la Maison blanche semble avoir changé de cap depuis l'échec des pourparlers sur la paix en Ukraine. Le nombre d'armes nucléaires a grimpé lors des 12 derniers mois.
Selon l'institut le nombre d'ogives nucléaires aurait atteint 9614, soit une croissance de 0,3% depuis l'an dernier. Le total atteint 12241 si l'on compte celles qui ont été retirées. D'autant plus que, comme dans tous les autres domaines, de l'économie au militaire, la Chine effectue un travail de rattrapage, cherchant à jouer dans la cour des grands, la Russie (4300) et les Etats-Unis (3700) dépassant de loin les 600 détenues par Pékin.
Cette dernière poursuit ainsi "une modernisation et expansion importante" de son arsenal selon l'institut stockholmois. C'est tout de même déjà le double du niveau de la France (300) et de la Grande-Bretagne (225). Pékin avance au train de 100 ogives par année. Le dialogue entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine n'est guerre mieux qu'avec Moscou en raison des différends sur Taïwan. Mais Moscou et Washington, qui détiennent 90% des ogives, ne comptent pas en rester là.
"Les deux états modernisent de manière importante leurs programmes de manière à augmenter sa taille et la diversité de leurs arsenaux dans l'avenir" note l'institut. L'augmentation risque de se poursuivre si le traité actuel de limitation n'est pas renoué d'ici février. Puis la crise avec Téhéran a rompu les liens avec l'Agence internationale de l'énegie atomique, mettant fin à toute tentative de transparence du régime.
SORRY NOT SORRY
So it turns out, the Buy Canada movement that encouraged the citizens of the Great White North to avoid US products and travel didn't sputter and die after a few weeks, still going strong six months into the new provocative US presidency which triggered it.
Canadians it turns out are still turning their nose at US shopping, especially as new higher tariffs kick in, and this in places that are so intimately tied to the giant neighbor to the south they nearly form two threads of the same quilt. While New Brunswickers have seen a flood of visitors from neighboring provinces such as Quebec and Nova Scotia, they themselves have been cutting cross-border US travel despite a stable Canadian dollar.
On a lookout feasting the eyes over the Bay of Fundy four of the six parked vehicles are from La belle province, and while residents of the only officially bilingual province in the country will engage effortlessly in both French and English, the version of the Langue de Moliere heard here has a sharp Quebecois accent between the monoliths of the famous Hopewell Rocks at low tide. And while the locals are not of the sort to speak unkindly of anyone, they are keeping their resistance to themselves and voting with their feet by bypassing the US wherever they can.
On a ferry to Deer Island, west of Saint John, Bob looks out on the Bay of Fundy, camera in hand, for the possible dolphin, seal or even whale sighting, reminiscing how he would usually go to nearby Maine on a regular basis, whether to spend some time there or to travel across to other parts of Canada, something he rather avoids now. "I don't want to go anywhere near (the US) now" since Donald Trump has come into office, he says as the US coast comes into view.
That can be tricky in an area where the border is so close Canadian cell phones can start roaming on US networks, a costly turn of events which has surprised him more than once. "Now my phone is programmed to prevent that." He is also wary of possible cellphone searches at the border and what have become the perils of boating too close to US waters. A Quebec fisher recently found out the hard way US border guards were watching the shared waterways with zeal under the new administration, spending time in US custody before being released, a traumatizing experience from which he has yet to recover.
Avoiding the US is particularly hard for residents of an island a short ferry ride away from Deer island, Campobello island, whose only link with the mainland is to Lubec, Maine, where islanders get their supplies. New retaliatory tariff measures applied at the border meant they were at first subjected a tax levy upon returning to Canada with their loot, before the federal government granted them an exemption earlier this year "in recognition of the island's unique situation." Still some residents there, who have limited shopping choices, have started to avoid the US as much as they can.
Among them local library manager Stephanie Gough told CBC she stopped crossing the bridge into Lubec multiple times a day to go shopping or to see friends, and has chosen to avoid going as much as she can. A sad turn of events disrupting these tightly knit cross-border communities, prompted by the US president's more provocative statements, which includes calling Canadians "mean" and "nasty" for cutting travel and avoiding US products.
Not long after Maritime Swag advertised a T-shirt inscribed with "Mean and nasty Canadians eh?" around cartoons of a beaver and moose. "They called us mean and nasty," the company posted. "But we're just over here minding our own business, sipping coffee, rocking plaid, and being unapologetically Canadian." Rather it's Americans doing the apologizing, both when we visit and when they do. "We do get Americans, and they apologize" for what their leader says, points out a business owner in Ottawa's Byward market.
Travel from Canada to the US was down over 30% in June, not insignificant as Canadians are by far the largest cohort of travellers there, spending over $20 billion annually. And for the first time in years more Americans visited Canada than the other way around. But on Deer Island, where a wildlife used to human presence can be spotted easily from the road, residents shake their heads at the ongoing dispute, still flying now faded dual flags, half Maple Leaf, half Star Spangled Banner, waiting for the storm to pass but keeping their heads high. And not only here.
At the other end of the country BC resident Tod Maffin was perfecting an activity Canadians have been engaging in during the last few months. "I manually counted every type of fruit and vegetable at nine grocery stores in Nanaimo. Thousands of them," he writes. "Now I know which grocery stores had the most American produce on their shelves." Sorry not sorry. But all is not lost. Residents of St Stephen, NB and Calais, Maine still found time to carry out with their summer tradition of gathering on the international bridge linking their communities to celebrate neighborly traditions, and this year, even hug it out a little.
LE RECUL SALVADORIEN
Son approche autoritaire a considérablement réduit la violence des gangs et inspiré de nombreux voisins, bien que des observateurs internationaux aient condamné la méthode employée. Le président salvadorien Nayib Bukele a depuis fait de son pays un dépotoir de demandeurs d'asile refoulés, faisant de lui un ami proche du président américain; les deux partageant un intérêt pour la cryptomonnaie, qui est presque devenue une devise nationale.
Ré-élu avec 85% des voix l'an dernier, sa popularité est indéniable, mais les critiques du régime n'ont pas tardé à qualifier de "dictatoriale" sa réforme constitutionnelle mettant fin aux limites de mandat, un geste qui n'a pas échappé à l'attention de son allié américain. Avec l'importante majorité de son parti Nouvelles idées dans la législature, Bukele n'a eu aucune difficulté à faire passer le projet de loi contentieux, une date que ses opposants ont qualifié de jour de deuil de la démocratie au Salvador.
Ceux-ci fondent d'ailleurs comme une peau de chagrin suivant une série d'arrestations qui en a fait fuir plusieurs et baillonné les médias alors que le gouvernement contrôle la plupart des institutions au pays. Tous les outils du petit despote dans une région où les exemples, historiquement, ne font pas défaut. Le cheminement semblait logique après l'irruption de soldats dans la législature lors de son premier mandat, le remplacement des juges de la cour suprême par des fidèles et cette ré-élection rendue possible par une nouvelle interprétation de la constitution.
C'est à peine s'il fallait vraiment la changer. La réforme, qui aurait dû prendre plusieurs mois et exigé de nombreux débats, a d'ailleurs été effectuée en un temps record, à peine trois heures, du dépôt d'une simple proposition au passage de la loi, 57 voix contre trois. Menace à la démocratie?
Le président de l'assemblée voyait les choses autrement, Ernesto Castro trouvant dans "ces mesures décisives" l'assurance "d'une démocratie plus forte, juste et efficace." Bertha Maria Deleon, avocate qui a changé de cap après avoir travaillé pour Bukele jusqu'en 2019, y voit autre chose. "Depuis cette occupation du parlement il a clairement suivi le manuel des dictateurs," dit-elle à Reuters.
Les réformes ajoutent d'ailleurs un an au mandat présidentiel et avancent le prochain scrutin pour le fixer en 2027. Même son de cloche réprobateur de Gina Romero, rapporteur spécial des droits à la liberté aux Nations unies: "Bukele a le contrôle absolu des cours, du congrès, des médias et du narratif. Si cela n'est pas de l'autocratie je ne sais pas ce que c'est." En fait mettre fin aux limites de mandat serait, à elle seule, la moins pire des transgressions, puisqu'elles n'existent pas dans plusieurs démocraties du monde.
Bukele ne s'est pas privé de le rappeler: "Quatre vingt dix pourcent des pays développés permettent la re-éléctions indéfinie de leur chef de gouvernement et personne n'en fait une histoire, dit-il. Mais quand un petit pays pauvre comme le Salvador tente de faire la même chose, tout d'un coup c'est la fin de la démocratie."
JAPAN'S HARD RIGHT
Like other far-right politicians he too has a soft spot for the brash US president, rants about foreigners and is rather kind to Russia in its war against Ukraine. Having embraced social media to the point of becoming a Youtube star pushing conspiracy theories and anti-vax arguments, where he got his starts, Sohei Kamiya and his fringe Sanseito party also appeal to Japan's youth, although that may be limiting on the ageing peninsula.
But in recent elections his support, while being short of an electoral tsunami, was enough to make the 47-year-old a big winner, taking 15 seats, and a rising star in the politics hailing from the land of the rising sun. Inspired by Germany's AfD extremists, Sanseito would see Japan rise beyond the supporting role it has limited itself to since WWII, looking with nostalgia back to those days where the emperor was more than a symbolic figure but wielded power to be feared and whose voice alone moved citizens to tears.
While the political scenario was a familiar one in the West, Kamiya's sudden rise caught observers by surprise in a country not known for its outbursts. Then again Japan's relatively peaceful setting doesn't make it any safer from the occasional political assassination. "We did not expect (such a breakthrough by the hard right) in the beginning of the campaign," told La Presse Yves Tiberghien of the University of British Columbia. "It all played out in about two or three weeks."
A champion of making Japan Great Again, Kamiya rails against a "deep state" backed by globalists. "He's always adding subject matters to his political colouring board," Tiberghien says. "Kamiya is a revisionist on Japan's role in the Second World War, is pro-army, against LGBTQ equality but by grabbing on to immigration he and his party climbed in the polls in recent weeks."
Traditionally closed Japan has historically limited immigration and made access difficult for newcomers, but the previous government of Shinzo Abe lessened some of the restrictions somewhat as the workforce got older and the demographic crisis worsened. According to polls demographics is a concern for future generations due to the dismal birth rate, among the lowest in the industrialized world.
Countries have often turned to immigration to change this but migration to Japan is both limited and difficult if growing. A decade ago some 2,2 million foreigners with permits, less than 2% of the population, lived across the country, relatively low by Western standards but double what it had been 25 years before, when Koreans made the vast majority of migrants. In time this has increased xenophobia among some members of the population, which targeted this minority. A racist organization, Zatokukai, accused them of taking advantage of social and fiscal benefits.
NGOs called for a ban of their racist demonstrations and a Hate Speech Act was eventually put in place in 2016 but by some accounts remains vague in its definition of hate speech. During the recent election Liberal Democratic Party lower house lawmaker Mio Sugita lost her seat in part following the backlash related to 2016 blog posts in which she described ethnic Ainu and ethnic Korean women dressed in traditional costumes as partaking in ‘cosplay’.
Other minorities have been the subject of racist protests, notably Kawaguchi's Kurdish community. But temporary visitors have also been fingered. A cheaper yen has made visits to the country popular. A record just short of 37 million travelled there last year, some unfortunately bringing their bad manners with them. Observers say Sanseito used growing anti-foreigner sentiment this to fuel their rise. "They have spread false information about foreigners [saying that they're] creating large amounts of crime and threatening the public order," says Jeffrey Hall of Kanda University of International Studies. "They have also been fixated on the idea of foreigners buying property."