AFRIQUE SANS FRONTIÈRES
En pleine pandémie mondiale, alors que le monde fermait ses frontières, une Afrique du sud jusqu'alors épargnée proposait une politique frontalière plutôt particulière: ouvrir ses frontières aux citoyens du continent en les fermant aux pays avec des taux importants d'infection.
Le covid est toujours parmi nous mais alors que certains pays du continent africain ont épousé cette politique d'ouverture envers leurs voisins l'Afrique du sud n'est pas parmi eux. Par contre, au début de l'année, le Ghana est devenu le cinquième pays africain à ne plus exiger de visa aux citoyens du continent, rejoignant un club unique composé des Seychelles, du Bénin, du Rwanda et de la Gambie, cinq pays dispersés à travers le continent. D'ailleurs, étonnamment, ces cinq pays ne partagent aucune frontière commune.
Tandis que certains pays du continent, de la Namibie au Sénégal, proposent des politiques réciproques (lire plus restrictives) avec les pays qui ont tendance à rejeter leurs citoyens, les cinq proposent une vision pan-africaine prometteuse pour le commerce et le tourisme. Le président ghanéen sortant Nana Akufo-Addo y voyait notamment la perspective de «créer un marché unique homogène» à travers le continent.
«Un geste conforme aux objectifs de la Zone de libre-échange continentale africaine (ZLECAf), afin de stimuler la croissance économique, la création d’emplois et l’éradication de la pauvreté ». Le problème des visas est familier aux citoyens du continent, plutôt étonnés, voir outrés, de constater la facilité avec laquelle les étrangers occidentaux circulent entre leurs pays alors qu'ils ne peuvent le faire eux-mêmes, note Mehari Taddele Maru de l'Institut de l'université européenne à Florence.
"L'individu le plus riche d'Afrique, Aliko Dangote, a besoin de 35 visas pour voyager en Afrique, note Maru, il se retrouve enchaîné par ces mêmes frontières qu'il veut ouvrir avec son vaste empire commercial." Le continent, dont les citoyens connaissent souvent l'échec lorsqu'ils tentent de visiter l'Europe, a pourtant bien besoin d'investisseurs mais empêche ses propres citoyens de traverser leurs frontières, soulignent cerrtains observateurs.
L'ironie du sort, note Maru, est que les états africains se retrouvent ainsi à renforcer du coup des frontières artificielles, vestiges du colonialisme européen, au lieu de faciliter le mouvement des citoyens africains. Mais certaines capitales, sans encore éliminer le besoin de visas africains, passent à l'acte pour “rendre la pareille” à l’Union européenne en matière de visas.
Dakar compte ainsi appliquer “le principe de réciprocité pour la délivrance de visas aux ressortissants de certains pays l’exigeant à nos ressortissants”. Les pays qui imposent “des procédures complexes et coûteuses aux Sénégalais devront désormais s’attendre à la pareille”, déclarait le premier ministre en début d'année. Mais pourquoi ne pas entre temps appliquer de réciprocité avec son voisin gambien bien connu et si exemplaire côté visa, lui dont le territoire est en fait presque entièrement englouti par le Sénégal géographiquement.
COLD WINTER AHEAD?
At the end of another year of fighting and destruction, Ukraine is contemplating a cold winter after many of its power plants were targeted by Russia while hot war continues in the East. Kyiv's offensive has largely fallen flat, losing some of the lands gained in its bold offensive inside Russia's Kursk region, which has sputtered out.
Months away from entering into another year of war, and weeks before a potentially less supportive US administration takes over, President Volodymyr Zelensky is starting to explore making concessions, for now, to silence the guns. But not at any cost, and that may not be enough for the Kremlin. The defense of the homeland has been impressive, fighting off its powerful neighbor - which has had to find its own supports overseas - and striking deep into Russia.
But despite finally obtaining the permission and means to do so, this has only provoked Moscow to up the stakes, tweaking its military doctrine and using an intermediate-range missile it warns could be nuclear tipped, all the while bringing in foreign fighters. Putin warned “we believe that we have the right to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities."
Some European countries had been toying with the idea of sending troops into the fight of what could become a broader conflict. To prevent all this, Zelensky told Sky News he could consider temporarily abandoning the land Russia has gained during the conflict, if the rest of the country could fall under a "NATO umbrella". The rest Kyiv would later seek to reacquire "diplomatically." This is quite the departure from not dropping the weapons until all of the land lost, including Crimea a decade ago is regained.
It wouldn't mean NATO membership but a security umbrella of NATO members to ensure the peace. Of course none of this has formally been proposed, and remains hopeful reverie at this stage. Moscow is unlikely to welcome any NATO involvement so close to its borders. A conflict which has make remarkable use of unmanned drone technologies has still amassed a large death toll sparking desertion on both sides.
Recently the US urged Ukraine to change mobilization laws so it could drop the age of conscription to 18 to boost its ranks, but Zelensky has signaled this is something he will not consider. Even amid the brave resisting Ukrainian population, war wariness is settling in. That wariness is seeping deeper into Western Europe, concerned the Oreshnik missiles recently used against Ukraine could be difficult to intercept and could spread mass destruction elsewhere in Europe even if they were armed with conventional warheads.
Last summer the United States and Germany said they would rotate intermediate-range missiles into Germany as of 2026, further raising Moscow's ire, which, to some observers, brings Europe into a "new missile age." “We are in an arms race, and it’s going to develop over the next 20 years,” told the Washington Post Alexander Graef of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy. “And so what I think is going to happen is that these different parties — Russia, states in Europe, the United States — are growing their arsenals because they don’t have the numbers yet to use these weapons effectively and to destroy the many targets that are possibly there.”
Zelensky said this week Ukraine would accelerate missile production. Would this end with peace in Ukraine? Russia may not be willing to contemplate years of continuing war against its neighbor. The Kremlin is finding out the conflict has had an impact on its operations elsewhere in the world, where it hopes to wield broader influence. Its offensive in Ukraine has to some extent made it lose sight of other developments further away, such as in Syria, where rebels and jihadists hostile to the Russia-supported government have made substantial gains in Aleppo, Syria's second largest city.
The heavy engagement of its military assets in Ukraine slowed its response to the rebel offensive in Syria, Turkish security sources told Middle East Eye. “Russia is not a bystander, but we are likely witnessing the limits of the Russian military,” told the news site Omer Ozkizilcik of the Atlantic Council. “The two-day performance of Russia indicates that much of its air force capability has been redeployed to Ukraine.” But there's no denying Russia's gains against Ukrainian forces have been constant in recent months.
"This fall has been grim for Ukraine," wrote Emil Kastehelmi an analyst of the Black Bird Group. "According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 square kilometres in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 square kilometres in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses." Speaking to Newsweek he added: "If we assume that the Russians have enough manpower and equipment for the coming months, it's likely they will continue attacking aggres-sively. There are no immediate indications that the Russians would run out of steam in the near future."
UNE PREMIÈRE PRÉSIDENTE
D'abord le Botswana, bientôt la Namibie? Pas si vite. Si en fin de compte cet autre pays voisin de l'Afrique du sud n'est pas encore parvenu à déloger le parti au pouvoir depuis l'indépendance il a par contre élu la première femme au poste de président de son histoire.
Avant son décès plus tôt cette année le président Hage Geingob avait choisi comme successeure sa vice-présidente de 72 ans Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, donnant un petit air de changement dans la continuité politique du pays de trois millions d'habitants. Celle-ci a récupéré 57% des intentions de votes, permettant à l'Organisation du peuple du Sud-Ouest africain (Swapo) de poursuivre son règne pour l'instant.
"Merci pour votre confiance" a déclaré l'heureuse élue, qui devient seulement la deuxième femme chef d'état sur le grand continent. Au pouvoir depuis 1990, l'ancien mouvement de libération n'a plus la cote qu'il avait cependant. Corruption, chômage et inégalités, sans parler de l'usure du pouvoir, ont avec le temps miné l'appui swapiste.
On ne semble plus aux beaux jours du slogan « La Swapo, c'est la nation, et la nation, c'est la Swapo ». Comme au Botswana plus tôt cet automne, la jeune nation atteint une certaine maturité politique avec la montée des oppositions face à un parti hégémonique. Mais une véritable alternance devra attendre et pour certains "NNN" incarne tout le même un certain changement.
"Elle va gagner et changer les choses", déclarait Josephina Shitotoka à Voice of America. Le pays est un important exportateur d'uranium et de diamants et a fait d'importantes découvertes en matière d'hydrocarbures récemment, pourtant ces entrées bénéficient rarement le plus commun des mortels. "Il y a beaucoup d'activité minière à travers le pays mais cela n'améliore en rien les infrastructures ou les débouchés sur le marché du travail," déplore l'analyste Marisa Lourenco.
NNN s'engage à créer 250000 emplois en cinq ans en attirant des investissements "grâce à la diplomatie politique." L'oppo-sition a cependant dénoncé plusieurs irrégularités lors du vote, qui a dû être prolongé pendant quelques jours. Le président du parti des Patriotes indépendants pour le changement, Panduleni Itula, a fait savoir qu'il n'allait pas reconnaitre le vote mais plutôt saisir la cour afin d'obtenir "justice" suite aux élections.
«Nous ne pouvons qualifier ces élections de libres, équitables et légitimes », a-t-il dénoncé. Un certain vent de changement balaye l'Afrique australe cette année, car en plus des résultats moins reluisants obtenus par l'ANC en Afrique du sud l'ile Maurice a été témoin de la chute du gouvernement de Pravind Kumar Jugnauth.
THE MARCH OF THE MAORI
Its powerful theatrics plant the seeds of doubt and fear in the hearts of grown men, that certainly is the intent when it is uttered, nay acted out, before All Black rugby games, the performance itself being half the battle it is said. But it was in New Zealand's parliament where the ceremonial haka echoed thunderously last month when Māori lawmakers rose to object to a newly introduced bill to reinterpret the country's founding treaty.
Launched defiantly by a document-tearing opposition MP, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, the chant and choreography of hand gestures and dance movements rose from the floor of the legislature high into the rafters, echoed by loud participants in the gallery before the session was suspended and the gallery cleared.
The Māori's awesome tradition of resistance in full display. Meanwhile a national march against the proposed legislation was snaking its way from the north of the country to the capital Wellington led by bare-chested Maori men on a nine day peaceful marathon of protest. At the heart of the dispute is a bill introduced by a party of the ruling conservative coalition arguing the sacrosanct principles of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi had to be legally defined, a move critics fear would undermine the indigenous rights the country is famous for championing.
The party, Act, says the treaty has divided the country by race, leading to "ethnic quotas in public institutions", but the blowback has itself created palpable divisions as the parliament's events unfolded and marches progressed. Even Prime Minister Christopher Luxon conceded the proposed legislation was "divisive", despite stemming from a member of his right of centre coalition.
Since taking power last year the conservatives have introduced measures that have upset the Māori, who make 19% of the population. The closure of the Māori Health Authority, set up under the previous Labour government, was one of them as was favouring once more English over Māori in the official naming of government organisations.
Meanwhile the Waitangi Tribunal, which looks into breaches of the treaty, said the bill "purposefully excluded any consultation with Māori, breaching the principle of partnership, the Crown’s good-faith obligations, and the Crown’s duty to actively protect Māori rights and interests" and in turn "caused significant prejudice to Māori". In the end the bill has little chance of making it into legislation, lacking the support to see it through, but the damage is done.
The Māori had been here before, some twenty years after the original treaty tensions rose and led to conflict. The Māori were forced to assimilate after the treaty was declared a legal nullity in 1877. A Māori protest movement in the 1960s brought about a revival of indigenous culture, placing it at the heart of the nation's identity.
But now what Quebec would call "the peace of the brave" has been shattered, if only for a moment, though without barricades held by armed men as seen during the summer of 1990 in Canada or more recently in New Caledonia, where the indigenous population resisted new voting policies, seen as diluting their political weight, with deadly clashes.
There as well peace endured until legislation stirred the pot after being introduced without consulting those it affected the most. The controversial proposal in New Caledonia was abandoned as well after the eruption of violence which has claimed over a dozen deaths since may, but the tensions endure to this day.
QUI POUR DIRIGER HAITI?
On n'avait pas tort de penser qu'Haïti était sans gouverne depuis quelques mois, mais ce n'est que la semaine dernière que le premier ministre a rendu sa démission après des semaines de pression de la part des gangs qui terrorisent cette bien torturée perle des Antilles.
A peine quelques jours en fait après la signature longuement attendue d'un accord sur l'envoi de policiers kenyans pour venir en aide à leurs collègues débordés, les évémenents en décidèrent autrement, et la mission qui devait ramener un semblant de paix était en suspens. Le premier ministre Ariel Henry annonçait son départ alors qu'un conseil présidentiel de transition se mettait à l'oeuvre afin de désigner un dirigeant intérimaire.
C'est un pacte entre les gangs qui dominent l'ile, unissant leurs forces afin de faire tomber le gouvernement, du moins ce qu'il en restait, qui a précipité la crise, suivi de l'attaque de l'aéroport - empêchant le retour du premier ministre de l'étranger - du port et de prisons, causant la libération de centaines de détenus, semant davantage la zizanie à Hispaniola où on avait déclenché l'état d'urgence.
Le secrétaire général de l'ONU Antonio Guterres a depuis fait appel à une "action urgente" de la part des états membres, mais difficile de voir comment la situation pouvait être plus urgente, l'attaque du port rendant la livraison de l'aide humanitaire presque impossible. "Si on ne peut pas avoir accès aux conteneurs Haïti va mourir de faim," estimait Laurent Uwumuremyi de l'organisme Mercy Corps. Les autorités américaines craignaient un effondrement du pouvoir imminent alors que les diplomates fuyaient le pays tandis qu'un pont aérien crucial était établi avec la République dominicaine avoisinnante.
Accusé d'être derrière ces attaques, et d'innombrables autres atrocités, Jimmy 'Barbecue' Chérizier, chef du gang G9, avait averti que sans cette démission du premier ministre le pays allait "tout droit vers une guerre civile qui conduira à un génocide". L'ancien policier de 46 ans sous le régime de sanctions de l'ONU se défend de répandre le chaos, accusant le pouvoir d'être responsable de l'écroulement de la nation.
"Ce sont les politiciens qui sont les vrais coupables. Les politiciens et oligarques corrompus ont apporté toutes les armes dans les quartiers populaires pour leur intérêt personnel mais pas pour le pays." Voilà donc depuis quelque temps qu'Haïti sombre dans le désordre perpétré par le mariage de gangs et partis politiques, notamment depuis l'assassinat du président en 2021, et l'enquête qui se poursuit sur cet événement sinistre malgré tout a porté d'étonnantes accusations, une d'elles contre la veuve du défunt chef d'état.
Henry à présent écarté, quel avenir pour ce triste pays? Washington exige une transition accélérée vers une autre gouvernance avec l'annonce prochaine d'élections. Car sur le terrain ce qu'il reste à sauver diminue peu à peu, notamment un système de santé «proche de l'effondrement», selon l'ONU, notant que «de nombreux établissements de santé sont fermés ou ont dû réduire drastiquement leurs opérations en raison d'une pénurie inquiétante de médicaments et de l'absence du personnel médical», évoquant également des pénuries de sang, d'équipements médicaux ou de lits pour traiter les blessés par balles.
THE PERILS OF LEADERSHIP
Less than two years into her mandate, Gatineau's first female mayor said she had had enough of the toxic environment, harassment, intimidation, and even death threats, and resigned. France Belisle wasn't alone a municipal organization noted as she bid her constituents goodbye, hundreds of other municipal leaders had done the same in previous months in Quebec.
Belisle herself said she regretted the "exodus" of officials, citing the resignation of the young mayor of the small community of Chapais and the temporary withdrawal of the mayor of another city, citing health reasons. These examples were all women, it turns out. And at a time all public officials face an increasing amount of threats and intimidation, women are often particularly targeted, it doesn't matter where they live.
In Mexico's presidential election front runner Claudia Sheinbaum says she was facing a flood of hate-filled messages after her phone number was leaked on social media. "What they want to do is obvious, once again their attacks are as crude as they are harmless," she said. Just north, the campaign of US Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley sought secret service protection after receiving a number of threats. "It's not going to stop me from doing what I need to do," Haley said defiantly after a campaign event.
It hasn't been a year since New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern quit her post after a period where she received numerous hate-filled and misogynistic messages. "Politicians are human," she said at the time. In the US, an attack at the home of then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which injured her husband, and threats against Michigan's governor, are among a series of attacks, notably against elected women, to have marked the divisive and tense political atmosphere leading to this year's elections.
In Europe a 2021 Finnish study of incidents targeting elected officials found many were facing "an elevated threat of abusive messages", mostly women. At the same the Nordic country was headed by Sanna Marin, then the youngest prime minister in the world, who headed a cabinet led by women and formed a coalition with other leaders who were also all women. Many among them were targeted by misogynistic abuse attacking their values, ridiculing their decision-making and questioning their ability to lead, the study found.
Studies have shown this sort of intimidation has discouraged women from joining politics in the first place, and shortened their careers when they tried. This is widespread. A few years ago a survey of female parliamentarians by the Inter-Parliamentary Union across 39 countries found "44 percent of surveyed women reported having received threats of death, rape, assault, or abduction. One fifth said they had been subjected to sexual violence."
In Canada according to the Privy Council Office the number of threats against federal ministers increased during the first years of the pandemic (2020-2), including 55 death threats made against the prime minister and 14 against his deputy minister, Chrystia Freeland, both of whom were caught in video footage fleeing turbulent protesters in the last years.
Twenty-six ministers received at least one reported death threat over this period, for a total of 110 in the period in a political environment charged up by divisions over vaccines and other sensitive issues often distorted by conspiracy theories on gun control and diversity "fueling violent extremist propaganda and incitement to violence". MPs and Senators have been equipped with mobile panic buttons as a result.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
How far will some countries go to track down their enemies? Israel isn't the only country that will go to the ends of the Earth to target perceived threats to the state. Foreign regimes, both friend and foe, have plotted attacks against people of interest who emigrated to North America with increasing boldness, according to multiple investigations.
One week after the RCMP staged a rare press conference to accuse Delhi of being behind the assassination of a Sikh activist in Canada, a senior Iranian military official was charged in an alleged plot to kill an Iranian-born American activist in the US. These are just the latest allegations after a series of cases of state-sponsored killings in the last years, some of which have grabbed international headlines, such as the poisoning of former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko in London and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkiye.
The new allegations have landed in North America and are now casting a new light on the investigations of previous killings. In February the US Department of Justice said it foiled four state-sponsored assassination attempts. One of them involved a Sikh activist, in an alleged murder for hire plot disrupted by the DEA. Charges were laid two months after Justin Trudeau publicly accused India of being behind the murder of a Sikh activist. Delhi denies the Canadian accusation and asked to see the evidence. Intelligence agencies have had their eyes on these sort of attacks for years.
"We face a rising threat from authoritarian regimes who seek to reach beyond their own borders to commit acts of repression, including inside the United States," stated the DOJ's Matthew Olsen two years ago. Some of the sponsors are considered rogue states, such as Russia and Iran. Brig. Gen. Ruhollah Bazghandi, a senior official in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and three other men were charged in a plot to kill Iranian-born US author and activist Masih Alinejad.
The targets or victims were often born in the countries seeking to silence them. Other regimes, such as Saudi Arabia and India, have complex relationships with Western countries whose citizens they are allegedly targeting, something that became obvious after Trudeau's and the RCMP's statements on India, sparking a diplomatic crisis, though impact on trade has not been felt. After the chill between Saudi Arabia and the US following the Khashoggi killing, relations have thawed.
Canada and India may take longer to return to the relationship they once shared, especially as previous murders are looked at in a new light. This includes the killing of a man who had been acquitted in the 1985 Air India bombing attributed to Sikh separatists. Known criminals Tanner Fox and Jose Lopez pleaded guilty to second-degree murder in the 2022 death, but the family of the victim is asking them to cooperate and reveal who hired them to carry out the hit.
Hiring criminals to carry out state-sponsored terrorism is one of the allegations the RCMP made as it launched a special unit to investigate multiple cases of extortion, coercion and violence, including murders, linked to agents of the Indian government. In the recent case of the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada police alleged diplomats collected information which they then passed on to criminals to carry out attacks. More recently Canada went further, accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of being behind a campaign of violence and intimidation targeting Sikh activists.
L'OMBRE DE MOSCOU
L'ombre de Moscou planait au-dessus des appels aux urnes aux frontières de l'Europe. Certes le vote référendaire sur l'adhésion à l'Union européenne est passé en Moldavie, ce petit état voisin de l'Ukraine dont une partie du territoire est semi-autonome et russophile, mais l'ingérence étrangère de Moscou a eu son impact: il est passé avec à peine plus de 50%, un résultat référendaire presque québécois.
La présidente Maia Sandu s'est empressée de dénoncer les «ingérences sordides» lors du vote, qui représente le premier d'un nombre de défis électoraux pour ce petit pays de 3 millions d'habitants. Cette «attaque sans précédent contre la démocratie» aurait selon elle été perpétrée par «des groupes criminels, agissant de concert avec des forces étrangères hostiles à nos intérêts nationaux, (qui) ont attaqué notre pays à coups de dizaines de millions d’euros, de mensonges et de propagande».
L'exercice aurait eu l'ambition d'acheter non moins de 300,000 votes, des institutions nationales ayant «documenté l'achat du vote de 150 000 personnes», un chiffre conséquent quant on considère l'écart qui a séparé les deux camps, à peine une douzaine de milliers de votes en tout.
La Géorgie pendant ce temps, elle aussi ébranlée par l'invasion de l'Ukraine, se livrait au même combat lors de sa campagne législative, même si la question de l'Europe n'a pas été posée aussi directement. Le vote avait lieu quelques mois après des mouvements de protestation contre la loi d'ingérence au goût très russe de l'oligarque influent Bidzina Ivanishvili. Ce dernier laissait entendre qu'un vote contre le parti qu'il a fondé, le Rêve géorgien, risquait la guerre dans ce pays déjà grignoté par son voisin russe, un peu à la manière de l'Ukraine.
Moldavie et Géorgie faisaient partie de l'URSS et abritent de fortes minoritiés russes sur des terres échappant paefois au contrôle du gouvernement central. Le parti au pouvoir fut donné vainqueur mais non sans la contestation de l'opposition qui dénonçait des "élections volées" et un "coup d'état constitutionnel" dans un pays où l'appui pour l'Europe est généralisé. Une enquête sur la "falsification présumée" du vote a été lancée.
Sandu pendant ce temps préparait déjà la ronde suivante en Moldavie, plus personnelle puisqu'elle devait lutter contre le candidat pro-russe Alexandru Stoianoglo au second tour de la présidentielle, quelques mois avant les législatives de l’été 2025, toutes sans aucun doute disputées sous influence. Celle-ci semblait avoir gagné son pari malgré une campagne marquée par plusieurs menaces.
S'il y a un pays de l'ancien bloc soviétique où les élections ne menaçaient pas de changer la donne il s'agit bien de la Lituanie, qui malgré son changement de cap - le pouvoir passant de la droite à la gauche - maintient son soutien indéfectible pour Kiev. Mais l'influence russe n'y a pas moins été ressentie.
TRUMP RE-ELECTED
Perhaps it was too much to change horse in mid-stream, perhaps the disgruntlement of Americans reeling from high prices and a sense of missing out on economic opportunities despite the generally performing economy, was too great. Maybe it was the thirst for change or perhaps America is still not ready for a female president.
In the end it didn't matter that Donald Trump had become a convicted felon, conducted a campaign high on hyperbole and merchandising and low on policy details, toyed with being a dictator on day 1 or using the army to crush dissent by political opponents, even executing them, praised Hitler, used profanity and made lewd remarks during rallies, slammed migrants for bringing in bad genes and vowed to launch mass deportations, all while suggesting Americans may no longer need to vote again after Nov. 5.
The 45th US president returned to the White House with a vengeance, something that we could be mistaken for not taking literally. Not only was he projected winner on election night scoring some 291 electors, whereas some were expecting a call days away, fearing long legal battles, but he also secured the popular vote and looked to win both houses to carry out his mandate in force, a Supreme Court already tucked into his corner, its abortion ruling not enough of a catalyst to galvanize the masses against the Republican candidate.
Those court cases against Trump would for the most part be dropped and the opposition left reeling after the new hopes that followed Kamala Harris' rise to headline the Democratic ticket, replacing an underperforming and weakened Joe Biden. The Democratic coalition failed to score where it mattered and in fact was less successful than Biden four years ago, while Trump bettered his own numbers, scoring "bigly" among Latinos, whom he had disparaged so often in the past. At least the clear result prevented the unpalatable post-election scenarios of 2020 or 2000 and voting day, despite the occasional bomb threats, was largely spared major disruptions.
The traditionally long campaign had been the most eventful in recent history, marked by a change of candidate in one camp and two assassination attempts in the other, and targeted by a campaign of influence from abroad targeting both camps. World leaders who had hoped not to relive the tensions of Trump's previous presidency, the threats to NATO, trade renegotiations and anti-immigrant policies, were left putting on a crooked smile, congratulating him for winning four more years, a rare feat after the interruption of the Biden years too many Americans decided were just not good enough to leave the Democrats in power.
Now they had to brace for measures at a critical junction in big power history, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle-East, disputes the president-elect promised to settle soon into his administration, for bad or for worse. They had to brace for possible new trade tariffs, especially Three Amigo partner Mexico, which Trump said would face massive tariffs if it could not prevent migrants from heading to the US border, despite its recent efforts on the issue. How, some wondered abroad as well as in many parts of the US who had been so anxiously anticipating the results, could n.45 be given another chance?
Perhaps it was a case of, in the words of a bumbling predecessor: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me (twice)... you're can't get fooled again." No amount of celebrity power, Taylor Swift be damned, were a match of Elon Musk it seemed, or able to prevent a stunning political comeback, sweeping most of the battleground states. "We achieved the most incredible political thing," Trump declared in his victory speech. "This will forever be remembered as the day the American people regained control of their country," vowing to close the border among other measures he now faces less opposition to carry out than eight years ago, and this time, perhaps, with a mind set on revenge. Or was this much for show?
The vitriol certainly seemed real, as well as plans to purge the civil service so it is filled with loyalists and yes men. This all seemed far removed from Kamala's hopes to "end the drama" in Washington. Unlike Trump four years ago, Harris, conceded the election hours after her rival was projected winner and promised a smooth and peaceful transition.
"The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for, but hear me when I say, the light of America's promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting," she said before tearful supporters. "While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign," While supporters hoped neck and neck polls during the campaign would hatch a secretive pro-Kamala female vote, it was the Trump support which defied expectations.
Despite a promising start, Harris failed to close the deal or distance herself enough from her unpopular president, observers say. "After a remarkable start to her campaign, Harris failed to close the deal rhetorically. In an unfortunate echo of Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, Harris spent far too much time trying to argue that Trump was unfit for the presidency and too little time delivering a coherent message about why she would be better," argued commentator Michael Hirsh in Foreign Policy. "Despite overpowering Trump in their only debate on Sept. 10 and raising more than $1 billion in donations in just three months—a new record—Harris often floundered when challenged to deliver a convincing summary of her agenda on critical issues such as the economy and immigration." Trump's election may have sent shock waves in a number of circles, it also sent stocks soaring.
IN NEED OF A FIX
After torrential rains provoking devastating floods from Eastern Spain to the Balkans in Europe as well as parts of Africa, the Americas and Asia, leaders at COP 29 were under no illusion they had to redouble their efforts to fight climate change after another record-setting year.
Even the Taleban, although not recognized by all participants, found the issue pressing enough to send representatives to a climate conference for the first time, seeking help developing mitigation and adaptation efforts. According to experts, this is no surprise as Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to global warming. "Climate change has resulted in higher temperatures, which reduce water sources and cause droughts," told AP Hayatullah Mashwani of Kabul University. "The reduction in water availa-bility and frequent droughts pose severe threats to agriculture, leading to food insecurity and challenges to livelihoods."
According to Save the Children the country is ranked the sixth most vulnerable country in the world with 25 of 34 provinces facing severe droughts. Nearby Pakistan was notably struck by devastating floods and extreme heat this year, hardly recovering from similar events two years ago. The repetition of such disasters and their worsening intensity is having an impact on children's mental health according to a study by the World Economic Forum this summer.
"The economic and physical health impacts of climate change are clear, Pakistan’s population is also experiencing the often overlooked mental health ramifications," the report stated. "The devastating fallout from the floods and extreme heat have stoked a sense of climate anxiety or 'eco-anxiety' in locals, a term popularly used to convey despairing sentiments around the climate crisis."
In Africa extreme heat has also made it unbearable to attend class for some children, hampering education for future generations, one that is so crucial to ensure the continent's future develop-ment and posperity. While expectations were high at the conference, some looked on with unease at the incoming US administration, more likely to abandon green measures while espousing drilling policies. The current White House meanwhile tried to reassure participants the fight against the climate crisis is bigger than any election result, but not everyone is convinced.
The US has been battered by hurricanes, tornadoes and flooding this season and wildfires scorched parts of California and New York state as the conference was starting. But a number of world leaders in fact decided to give the summit a miss, notably those of top polluters including the US, India and China. But Britain's new prime minister said he was looking forward to meeting new ambitious targets to tackle climate change. "Acts on climate now is the route towards economic growth, energy security, better jobs, and national security in the long term to deliver on the Paris agreement," he said.
The choice of venue for COP29 once more raised some eyebrows. Baku, like Dubai last year, belongs to a major oil power, sparking criticism the outcome would yield little despite rising emergencies on every continent. In fact Azerbaijani officials were using the gathering to discuss potential oil and gas deals according to the BBC, quite remote from the stated goal of negotiating compensation for impacts of climate change to poorer countries. Meanwhile oil company Shell won an appeal against a landmark ruling that required it to accelerate carbon reduction efforts. Former US vice-president and longtime climate campaigner Al Gore said the yearly gathering had to be reformed.
"I think it's absurd to have, for example, what we had last year with the CEO of one of the dirtiest oil companies on the planet serving as the president of the COP," he told EuroNews. "It's a direct conflict of interest," calling this year's host "in synch with this country's reliance on fossil fuels." He proposed that the UN's secretary general pick the venue of future summits and said relying on technology to solve the climate crisis only played into the hands of oil and gas interests, singling out carbon capture and storage meant to store away CO2 underground.
"They've been proven to be completely ridiculous and totally ineffective," he said. "Of course the fossil fuel companies want to pretend that that's the solution - anything other than reducing the amount of fossil fuels that are burned or reducing their markets." Yet, as the Economist pointed out, technology remains and "has always been a vital part of the fight to regain control over the climate" and renewables get cheaper every year.
But Gore is hardly the sole critic of the summit. More than 20 experts signed a letter saying the COP wasn't working and in need an overhaul. COP's "current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity," they wrote.
UN NOUVEAU MODÈLE?
L'aveu d'une défaite cinglante, la félicitation du nouveau vainqueur et la promesse d'une transition pacifique, voilà tous les éléments d'une conclusion électorate saine, signes de stabilité démocratique. Mais alors que le monde avait les yeux rivés sur l'élection américaine plusieurs ont raté la transition exemplaire au Botswana, exemple pour le continent africain mais pour le reste de la planête également.
L'élection du mois dernier était d'autant plus notable qu'elle confirmait l'alternance pour la première fois après 60 ans d'indépendance. A l'époque Duma Boko, un avocat quinquagénaire des droits humains éduqué à Harvard, n'était pas encore au monde.
En remportant 31 des 60 sièges sa coalition de gauche Umbrella for Democratic Change délogeait pour la première fois le parti au pouvoir depuis la rupture avec la couronne britannique. Et comment a réagi le dirigeant sortant Mokgweetsi Masisi? Presque avec enthousiasme: «Je veux féliciter l’opposition pour sa victoire. Nous avons eu tout faux aux yeux du peuple,» dit-il en s'engageant à faciliter la transition.
« Nous sommes tout à fait heureux de nous retirer pour devenir une opposition loyale qui demande des comptes au gouver-nement».
Il faut dire que l'état de l'économie, qui dépend notamment du diamant et du tourisme, et la corruption ont finalement eu raison du Parti démocratique du Botswana, mais le résultat n'a pas moins causé la surprise. Le signal était-il envoyé au voisin sud-africain dont le gouvernement au pouvoir depuis la fin de l'apartheid maintient sa place malgré sa cote de popularité glissante? Ce signal pourrait aussi bien traverser l'océan pour effectuer un rappel à l'administration entrante à Washington.
Reconnaissant l'«immense responsabilité» qui lui a été confiée avec «humilité », Boko a salué la «transition démocratique réussie, pacifique et ordonnée» de ce petit pays du sud du continent de 2,6 million d'âmes regroupant la plus importante population d’éléphants au monde.
Le chômage (27 %), notamment chez les jeunes, figurait au haut des préoccupations dans ce pays qui, comme son voisin, connait d'importantes inégalités. Mais la démocratie elle, se porte plutôt bien. Alors que la baisse de popularité du parti au pouvoir avait été ressentie depuis plusieurs années, sa chute a surpris plusieurs observateurs.
Un telle « probabilité semblait très faible», selon l’économiste Keith Jefferies, se livrant à l'AFP. On aurait ainsi assisté à « un raz-de-marée d’électeurs qui ont changé d’allégeance ». Une bouffée de fraicheur alors que le monde tombe dans une humeur plutôt sombre après l'éclat américain et la montée des extrémismes et des puissances autoritaires. Le salut viendrait-il de ce coin Afrique?
DEFENDING DEMOCRACIES
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the defenders urge supporters and suppliers not to abandon them, reiterating their struggle is the free world's, and democracy's battle against the darkness of authori-tarianism. Sadly, in a year of continuing war in Eastern Europe and conflict in the Middle East, an increasing share of the world is living under some form of authoritarianism according to both Freedom House and this year' Economist Democracy Index.
For the latter, this means just under 40%, while barely 45% of the planet lives under some form of democracy, and this includes only 7.8% of some 167 surveyed countries that are full democracies. The last year has brought the global democracy index further down, in fact to its lowest level since it was created in 2006, "suggesting authori-tarian regimes are becoming more entrenched and hybrid regimes are struggling to democratise."
The biggest damage, by this account, has been in the Middle East and North Africa, with the flare-ups in Sudan and Gaza, certainly, but also in the Caribbean and Latin America, in regions consumed by internal wars of sorts with gangs and criminality. This ensured El Salvador's increasingly autocratic leadership a sure win in this year's elections, with others looking to emulate Bukele's strong-armed formula to tame drug gangs.
The punishing method, criticized by human rights groups, has certainly dipped the level of violence in what was one of the world's most terrifying countries, but not without weakening further the state of democracy there. "His total control of government institutions means that opposition parties have little chance of challenging his re-election," the Economist Intelligence Unit's report notes. "Political reforms passed in June to reduce the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly and the number of municipalities will further constrain the chances of opposition parties to gain power," while media freedoms come under attack.
The Freedom House report downgraded Ecuador from free to partly free due to the rising gang-related violence. In that annual report political rights and civil liberties were down in 52 countries and only 21 countries improved their situation. But as co-author Yana Gorokhovskaia notes: "Even if you look at it region by region, usually we are able to say that one is an outlier, but every single region registered a decline.
The deterioration is pretty widespread." The report denounced efforts by incumbents "to control electoral competition, hinder their political opponents or prevent them from taking power" in countries including Cambodia, Turkey and Zimbabwe and -- unsuccessfully -- in Guatemala and Poland." There were however some bright spots as Thailand went from not free to partly free after relatively competitive elections, even if the regime prevented a young progressive whose party won the most seats from becoming prime minister.
"This isn't, I would say, a full-scale victory for democracy or freedom and Thailand," nuanced Gorokhovskaia. The biggest improvement? Tiny Fiji after 2022 elections which ousted longtime ruler Frank Bainimarama, who had taken over in a coup in 2006. Since then Freedom House has noted marked progress including reduced censorship and laws to improve women's participation.