PLUGGING THE LEAKS

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It was weeks before Calgarians were able to go back to their showering, dish washing ways after a major water main break left city taps drying. And even then, some restrictions remained for outdoor consumption as city officials pleaded for residents to maintain water usage awareness and calling on them to pursue some of the conservation ways they had learned with great urgency over the previous weeks.

 

As the heat set in for the summer, including a major heatwave as the Stampede rolled into town, outdoor polls and splash parks remained banned. Outdoor irrigators meanwhile were growing concerned the lack of clear timelines for lifting restrictions would impact their business even more and cause job losses. In the mean time Quebec City also temporarily imposed restrictions on water use after an infrastructure mishap there and, last week, Montreal hospital services were impacted after a water main break.

 

With ageing infrastructure and growing demand for the blue gold, more incidents of the sort are sure to follow across North America. But the news hasn't been  all bad according to one report. A December 2023 study of the Utah Water Research Laboratory found that water main failures between 2018 and 2023 have in fact decreased by 20% in North America, based on some 800 reporting utilities, largely thanks to the reduction of cast iron and asbestos cement pipes being used. But the estimated average water loss to leakage rose from 10% to 11% in that period, that's 260,000 pipe failures annually. And in addition 33% of water mains are over 50 years old, representing approximately 770,000 miles in the US and Canada.

 

In 2012 and 2018, the average ages of failing water mains were reported as 47 and 50 years, respectively. Add to this the fact that about 20% of installed water mains have not been replaced due to lack of funds, representing a shortfall of $452 billion, and the recipe for disaster starts to appear. So even before dropping water tables becomes an issue in the most developed countries, such as in the hottest and driest areas of the continent, water woes can and do emerge. And this in more ways than one.

 

In addition to infrastructure woes, attacks by foreign powers can threaten the continent's drinking water, and in fact some may have already been taking place. There have been a recent string of attacks on water utilities in the US, notably in Kansas, Texas and Pennsylvania, as cyber-criminals have been taking aim at critical infrastructure.

 

A spokeswoman for the US Environmental Protection Agency told CNBC “all drinking water and wastewater systems are at risk — large and small, urban and rural.” Earlier this year the the FBI warned Congress that Chinese hackers were targeting cyber infrastructure to damage systems such as the electricity grid the US and Canada share as well as water treatment plants. China isn't alone, Russia was linked to the hack of a Texas water filtration plant in January while Iran was behind a dozen attacks of utilities across the US last year.

 

Experts note that while attacks may not cripple these infrastructures they tend to have a psychological impact on populations. Over a decade ago a Canadian intelligence report underlined jihadist threats as well.  "Infrastructure sectors and institutions in various jurisdictions that are known to have experienced insider threats from international jihadist elements in recent years include airports, airlines, energy utilities, nuclear plants, petroleum companies, university laboratories, water systems, sensitive government departments and security agencies in Denmark, the Netherlands, the U.K. and the U.S."

 

The development of artificial intelligence is in addition adding to the tools used by cybercriminals in such attacks. “Rapid advances in artificial intelligence are giving cyberthreat actors more sophisticated tactics, techniques, and procedures to penetrate operational technology that controls critical infrastructure facilities,” the EPA spokesman said. “These attacks have been linked to a variety of types of malicious actors, including hackers working on behalf of or in support of other nations who could use disruptions to U.S. critical infrastructure to their strategic advantage.”

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GUSTS OF CHANGE

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Change seems afoot amid the world's top Western democracies. As Britain switched leadership with the collapse of the conservative party this week, its Canadian counterpart looked to make major gains in the yet to be called parliamentary elec-tions. Likewise France's government seemed poised for a shake-up after the first round of snap polls gave the far-right Rassemblement National 33% of the votes, causing others to band in opposition, as it threatened to put in place the first hard right French government in the post-war era.

 

In the land of the leader of the free world meanwhile, tightening polls after the conviction of the Republican nominee once again gave Donald Trump a more comfortable lead after a disastrous debate for the incumbent. So under-whelming was Joe Biden's performance in fact, that long-time supporters called for him to make way for another Democratic candidate, four months before election night.

 

The last few weeks haven't been kind to the 81-year-old who looked every day the part for the first debate of the presidential election. His son had recently been convicted on federal gun charges, a fact that did not fail to come up, and while Biden was quick to snap back that the only convicted felon he could see was "the man I'm looking at" during the debate, his raspy voice and lack of energy left casual observers and experts alike agreeing the night had been a disaster despite an opponent refusing to say clearly he would recognise electoral defeat and making a litany of inaccurate claims, some more preposterous than the others.

 

The difference being that in doing so the former president looked not a year older, or less of a fabulist, than when he stepped out of the White House. In an election where voters indicated their dislike for both of these choices, and the preference of none of the above wasn't an option, the night's performance failed to reassure Americans Biden was indeed fit for a job he would occupy into his mid-80s. Major publications such as the Economist and New York Times called for Biden to end his bid. Even insiders of the government in Canada were privately expressing concerns about the performance of their ally.

 

But these friends were having their own troubles. Justin Trudeau's party lost a riding that had been Liberal for decades in a byelection catastrophe which has also raised calls for him not to run again in the next federal election. While this may be more than a year away, some observers say the trouble the ruling party is in is such it would make little difference to change leaders. Soon after the byelection, former cabinet minister Catherine McKenna stated "The Prime Minister has a legacy to be proud of but it's time for new ideas, new energy and a new leader." A sitting Liberal MP later echoed that sentiment.

 

In France, Trudeau ally Emmanuel Macron was successful preventing the far right from winning a majority but lost precious seats. While the battle is for the prime ministership and not the presidency, some fear the new National assembly could make coexistence difficult for Macron. In the UK meanwhile, Rishi Sunak's ousting as short lived prime minister hardly came as a surprise after a campaign where voters made plain the Tories had run their course in Great Britain after 14 years in power marked by scandals and Brexit.

 

While a weakening of the centre can be held responsible for some of the upheaval in these countries, so is the inevitable swing of the political pendulum after years of the same parties holding power. In all these cases the changes and likely changes had important ramifications in terms of policies, but nowhere was this more alarming than in Washington as some feared a new Trump presidency would diminish support to Ukraine and NATO, among other significant foreign policy changes.

 

The day after the debate Biden was back on the campaign trail vowing to continue the fight. "Folks, I might not walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to. I might not debate as well as I used to. But what I do know is how to tell the truth," he told a North Carolina crowd. "And I know what millions of Americans know. When you get knocked down you get back up." But this did not quiet the critics fearing the incumbent's chances in the fall, already challenging in the past, were now simply marked for failure regardless of this opponent's judicial distrac-tions.

 

Looking on are rival powers, from China to Russia and Iran, hardly concerned about polling of any sort and hoping the changes in Western democracies play in their favour to alter the balance of power. Biden and Trudeau vowed to stay on despite facing pressure to step down, both citing their need to confront the world's challenges to freedom. But their political wager looked as shaky as Macron's, days before second round voting in France.

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CAN SENEGAL AVOID THE SLIP?

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While much of the West African region reeled from both failed and successful coups, Senegal could always be counted on as a more stable, fair arbiter, a model of democracy in a troubled part of the world. But the nation of 17 million has been slipping from its democratic pedestal in the run up to the latest presidential election, to the point opposition legislators say it is being swept by a constitutional coup.

 

Protesters clashed with police in major cities after Senegalese president Macky Sall postponed this month's scheduled presidential election hours before campaigning was to begin. Lawmakers then voted for a potential new date only after a chaotic session of the legislature which was marked by the removal of members of the opposition. Tensions in the streets reflected this sad state of affairs, clashes leading to three deaths.

 

The charge of constitutional coup is a significant one in a region of the continent which has been rattled by numerous coups over the years and is the culmination of months of rising tensions which have often spilled into the streets after the country's constitutional council denied a number of candidates the right to participate in the vote, notably the highly popular Ousmane Sonko and Karim Wade, son of a former president. Sall defended his action saying holding the vote in view of the council's decision risked tainting the election, fearing this may just increase tensions across the country.

 

But this didn't take long to become reality. Sall, who has served a maximum two mandates, vowed to begin "an open national dialogue... to create the conditions for a free, transparent and inclusive election in a peaceful and reconciled Senegal." But the decision made the state of the nation very far from that goal amid mass protests. Some opposition politicians said they would campaign regardless.

 

The postponement is historic in the country seen as a model of democracy in the region but comes after years of grumbling, notably by supporters of Sonko, who has faced court cases he says were part of a campaign to prevent his candidacy. "This is a precedent, a dangerous precedent," said opposition candidate Khalifa Sall, who called for a boycott. Another candidate, Anta Babacar Ngom was arrested in ensuing protests.

 

The US, France and other countries expressed concern, asking the president to soon determine a new date to hold elections. Also hoping Sall would put forward a new date is the much maligned ECOWAS regional organi-zation, already reeling from the loss of three member states which have seen recent coups, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, now making a rare appeal for calm in one of its more exemplary member states.

 

Last week the group held an emergency session, something it usually does under Senegal's stewardship. But the constitutional council's ruling this week that postponing the vote was unconstitutional put matters back into the president's corner as the leadership was looking to lower tensions by releasing some detained opponents. All may not be  lost yet, and all of Africa is watching.

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UN COUP... MONTÉ?

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Tentative de coup d'état ou coup monté de toute pièce? La question se pose quelques jours après le putsch manqué de La paz dans un pays reconnu autant pour ses coups d'état que pour ses chapeaux melon.

 

Le plus récent, une curieuse affaire de quelques heures terminée avec quelques arrestations sans véritable dégât ou coup de feu, a connu un autre coup d'éclat: son auteur, le général Juan José Zúñiga Macías, a lancé que le président lui avait demandé de passer à l'acte pour faire monter ses cotes de popularité un an avant les élections qui doivent marquer le 200e anniversaire de l'indépendance.

 

En effet le président Luis Arce connait une popularité en chute libre en raison d'une crise financière et économique et aurait besoin d'un remontant. Ce dernier pointe plutôt du doigt l'ancien président Evo Morales, pourtant issu du même parti Mouvement vers le socialisme (MAS) mais qui a dû connaitre l'exil après avoir tenté de garder le pouvoir au-delà des deux mandats, dépassant la limite autorisée par la constitution. Les deux se livrent une chaude lutte, à la fois idéologique au sein du parti, et dans les sondages.

 

Morales épouse également cette version d'autocoup circulée par Zúñiga une fois les menottes aux mains, alors qu'Arce faisait appel à l'appui des foules pour condamner cet affront au nom de la démocratie. Alors que la cour constitutionnelle se range du côté de ceux qui déclarent tout retour de Morales illégal, les alliés de ce dernier rendent la vie plutôt difficile au président au sein du Congrès.

 

Faisant appel à l’ouverture d’une enquête sur la crise, Morales a ridiculisé le déroulement des incidents: « Le coup d’État commence, les ministres se promènent joyeusement sur la place Murillo, ils touchent des chars ; un coup d’État avec zéro blessé, zéro coup de feu, zéro mort ».

 

Coup en bonne et due forme ou autocoup, les tentatives se multiplient, notamment en Afrique, depuis un an, et il ne s'agit pas de la première à connaitre l'échec. En ce laps de temps le Burkina Faso a connu deux tentatives qui ont echoué, une affaire entre militaires dont la plus récente remonte en janvier.

 

Sierra Leone et Guinée-Bissau ont également connu l'échec à ce chapitre, ainsi que le géant du continent, la République démocratique du Congo, proie à une multitude de tiraillements et de rébellions, notamment avec la provocation des voisins. Le putsch raté est de plus en plus fréquent selon une étude de Harvey Kebschull, spécialiste de l'université de la Caroline du nord.

 

Est-ce parce que les gouvernements parviennent mieux à les prévenir, notamment avec une meilleure utilisation des renseignements ou est-ce parce qu'ils sont organisés par des auteurs maladroits? Par ailleurs les conséquences peuvent se faire sentir longtemps après la crise, et certains sont même parvenus à obtenir des résultats. Un putsch en Zambie en 1990 a éventuellement provoqué la libération de prisonniers politi-ques et plus tard entrainé des élections, note Kebschull. Mais il s'agit plutôt d'une exception.

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IT IS ONLY COMMERCE?

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There was something historically unnerving about the visit of Russian warships and a nuclear powered submarine to Havana in June. The Cuban embargo is still in place after all these years, but the visit harkened back fears of the blockade of the island at the height of the Cuban missile crisis.

 

Shadowed by a Canadian vessel, the visitors came and left without incident, the trip full of symbolism as Russia seeks to raise tensions abroad in an attempt to possibly distract Washington from the war in Ukraine. After Vladimir Putin's May visit to China, the Russian leader went on another trip sure to raise alarm bells in the US, to North Korea, a supplier of arms to the red army seeking to counter the allies' assistance to Ukraine, a show of support years into  sanctions that were supposed to isolate the Kremlin and choke its supply lines.

 

If it feels Moscow is multiplying its options in these times of great power rivalries, notably in the Americas, it isn't the only one. And while others aren't being so open about it, their intentions are no less concerning to North Americans. China's decade-old Belt and road initiative has spread its tentacles across the world and that includes Latin America and the Caribbean, where some are eyeing warily infrastructure investments that may one day be able to provide the rising superpower with a military foothold in the region.

 

The Americas are front and centre in the global hunger for lithium and other commodities, and China has been busy expanding its global investments there to the tune of billions, from Central America to the doorstep of the Antarctic. In 2021 Latin America and the Caribbean received between $7 billion and $10 billion in combined investment from Beijing, most of it going to Brazil at just under $6 billion in foreign direct investment, followed by Chile, Peru and Argentina.

 

The latter and Nicaragua also joined the Belt and road initiative project two years ago, which now involves over 20 countries in the region. Among them Peru is with this investment building a megaport some say could become a challenge to US influence in the region, and not just commercially.

 

While China is already a major trade partner in the region, the US fears Chinese influence in its backyard may extend to the military sphere. “This changes the game,” Eric Farnsworth of the Council of the Americas think tank tells the Wall St Journal. “It really platforms China in a major new way in South America as the gateway to global markets. It is not just a commercial issue at that point, it is a strategic issue.”

 

The port, which would be able to welcome megaships, could make Chancay a major hub for trans-Pacific trade, and adds to the dozens of sea ports controlled or operated by China across the world after injecting some $30 billion is nearly four dozen countries. While Lima says US concerns are much ado about nothing American officials point out China’s domestic law dictates its firms must take into account national defence as well as commercial needs in their operations.

 

And Chinese companies have been increasing their foothold from Brazil, which now counts China as its top trade partner, to Honduras, which cut its ties with Taiwan to draw Chinese investments. Over a decade in the making the BRI is the world's largest infrastructure undertaking, with China financing up to $1 trillion in infrastructure in nearly 150 countries.

 

Blamed of falling asleep while China was making gains in the great power rivalry, the US has been touting its own alternative to the belt and road initiative, a India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor announced at the G20 last year which would link India, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe. Not limiting itself to improving trade links, the corridor would develop electricity and digital infrastructure and promote clean hydrogen exports.

 

This could speed up trade between Europe and India and develop corridors of trade in Africa. But this all currently remains in infancy. In the mean time China has been tightening ties with Cuba itself, military ones, and recent satellite imagery suggests the development of eavesdropping stations on the island linked to China, including installations close to Guantanamo Bay, possibly to spy on anything from military bases to commercial shipping.

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​AFTER THE EURO VOTE

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It was largely expected populist and far-right parties would fare well in Europe's recent elections, though the results were not as alarming as some feared, but few anticipated the response of France's Emmanuel Macron when his country's results gave nearly a third of the vote to the far-right.

 

The French president promptly dissolved parliament and announced snap parliamentary elections right before the Olympics, daring electors to trust extremists at the national level and urging citizens to unite against them. Not everyone is convinced he will win his bet but large crowds demonstrated against the rise of the far right  and super stars such as Kylian Mbappé warned against "extremes".

 

Rarely had continental elections had such an impact on domestic politics and the gamble seemed to suit up and coming right wing politician Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement National and protégé of Marine Le Pen, just fine. The far-right made gains in other countries including Italy, Austria and Germany, but despite his party's setback at the polls, Chancellor Olaf Scholz refrained from calling an election. European Commis-sion chief Ursula von der Leyen, whose centrist alliance maintained the majority overall, still found reason to celebrate and vowed to erect a "barrier" to extremism after the June 9 vote.

 

She quickly started to work on the creation of a new coalition of centrists and allies as the success of right-wing parties could make it harder for legislation to be passed and the continent to come together on contentious issues such as Ukraine. Far right leaders including the Netherlands' Geert Wilders, Italy's Mattheo Salvini and Le Pen meanwhile were holding their own meetings to unite the continent's "center right", even though they are considered quite removed from the center. The far right itself is in fact divided.

 

While Le Pen and Italy's Giorgia Meloni found reasons to celebrate, the latter is also close to van der Leyen and hesitant to support a more radical group of parties in the European parliament. Far right parties are also divided over the war in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky is worried radical parties are more likely to be pro-Russian and  expressed his concern about the eventual dwindling of support in Europe and elsewhere, but he for now could at least count on the help of G7 summit host Meloni, who has repeated her support for Ukraine and signed on with others to the $50 billion loan Ukraine will receive, drawing on interest from frozen Russian assets.

 

Not all has been rosy for radical parties, as they failed to gain as many seats as they would have wanted overall. Among them  in fact Viktor Orban's party lost a few in the new European parliament. While his Fidesz still won the most votes, the center-right party of Peter Magyar, a former Orban disciple, got just under a third of the vote, making him a domestic challenger in future elections. “This is the beginning of the end,”

 

Magyar told crowds on election night. That may be so for Hungary, but political observers note the hard right in general has been making steady gains for the last decades in the West, notably among the founding EU members, requiring repeated calls for other parties to unite, as France is once again called to do.

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BRISE SOUVERAINISTE

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La montée  du Parti québécois dans les sondages a fait ressurgir dans le discours politique la notion de référendum et de souvenaineté, même si l'appui de la cause indépendantiste n'atteint pas le niveau de celui d'un parti en bonne posture pour mettre fin au règne de la CAQ au pouvoir.

 

Le chef du PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, qui hésitait pourtant sur la question dans le passé, gonflé par les sondages, promet désormais un référendum dès un premier mandat. Un référendum présenté comme celui de la dernière chance dans une province qui évolue, et s'éloigne de cette cause démographiquement chaque année. Un choix, selon Plamondon, entre le statu-quo et une éventuelle "disparition" et l'indépen-dance, accusant le gouvernement fédéral d'empiéter dans les compétences de la  province.

 

Mais la notion de sécession a des échos ailleurs sur le continent, dans l'ouest canadien, notamment, en Alberta, mais également aux Etats-Unis, de l'Oregon en Louisiane en passant par le Texas, où certains caressent depuis quelque temps des rêves de "Texit". Car si la notion de "république" de Californie est aussi symbolique que celle du conch (conque) à la pointe de la Floride, elle fait l'objet de projets dans un Lone Star State riche, peuplé, et de plus en plus disjoncté avec ces côtes américaines dites "libérales" dans le sens américain du terme.

 

La plupart du temps l'initiative dite sécessionniste est celle de régions républicaines cherchant à se distinguer, voire se séparer, de zones progressistes, un peu comme l'Alberta au Canada. Il s'agit notamment de parties de l'Oregon, un état côtier plutôt progressiste, qui se sentiraient plus à l'aise de rejoindre un Idaho voisin plus rural et conservateur. Le genre de redéfinition géographique si critiqué au niveau des cartes électorales.

 

Dans cet état du nord-ouest 13 comtés républicains seraient partants pour rejoindre un "grand Idaho" plus proche de leur coeur politique et idéologique. Au coeur du pays des poches démocrates peuvent bien exister, et elles peuvent à leur tour provoquer le rejet de coins plus conservateurs. C'est le cas du comté de Weld au Colorado qui rêverait de s'attacher au Wyoming voisin. Des fois ces rêves de séparation sont plus locaux et municipaux, c'est le cas de Lost Creek auTexas, qui n'aimerait rien de mieux que de se dissocier de cette Austin obstinément progressiste, une anomalie dans cet état de cowboys.

 

Plus à l'est, le quartier prospère de Buckhead se sent parfois mal à l'aise au sein de la métropole de la Géorgie. Un vote prévoyant une dissociation s'est soldé par un échec l'an dernier, car une telle déchirure aurait, craint-on, signé l'arrêt de mort économique de la capitale de l'état. Rêves utopiques pour certains, comme celui de la séparation du Texas, d'autres se sont pourtant réalisés, comme en Louisiane, où St. George, banlieue prospère de la capitale, est devenue incorporée, brisant son lien avec Bâton Rouge.

 

Entre sécession de l'union et découpage municipal, un autre projet, encore une fois plutôt utopique, est caressé par ses concepteurs. Celui d'un nouvel état tout simplement, entre l'Oregon et la Californie, états démocrates. Cette poche conservatrice du nom de Jefferson, inspiré par le président du même nom, est une idée qui remonte au 19e siècle, et qui comme tant d'autres a peu de chance de devenir réalité.

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FORGOTTEN LESSONS

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​For years the West largely ignored trouble brewing in the heart of Africa. After all to some it seemed little but more of the same, war and disease. Then suddenly it became hard to ignore. But it didn't necessarily have to happen that way The latest global health emergency hasn't exactly caught the world by surprise.

 

The spread of Mpox was well documented in the Democratic Republic of Congo in recent years and was the subject of a health emergency two years ago all the while doses of vaccines sat stockpiled in labs across the world. The development of a new more potent variant of the virus however, which has trickled beyond Africa with cases coming to light in Sweden and Thailand, has once more sounded the alarm of an urgency which officials hope will lead to increased vigilance and mobilisation. Perhaps more permanent this time.

 

In China and other countries this has meant screening arrivals for Mpox, a throwback to the pandemics of the past whose lessons were perhaps too quickly forgotten. While the world may not be on the verge of a similar pandemic, observers say the fact Mpox has once more been declared a global health emergency reflects failures to learn from the lessons of the coronavirus, including the need for constant surveillance and preparation while addressing red tape and inequities. Of course there have been plenty of reasons to be distracted in the last few years.

 

Wars from the Middle East to Ukraine meant immediate focus lied elsewhere, while Kinshasa itself was struggling with domestic instability as a rebellion raged within its borders, leaving many areas of the country, like the health crisis itself, out of control. The region most seriously affected by the outbreak is experiencing a humanitarian crisis which has displaced nearly 2 million people fleeing years of conflict.

 

An alarming rise of cases came to light in the eastern part of the country, notably carried by people residing in refugee camps, and it took little time before cases leapt over the borders to neighboring Burundi, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. Unfortunately the violence and insurgency causing the migration crisis has not abated, as fighting continued between M23 rebels, the West accused Rwanda of backing, and government troops despite recent efforts to settle the dispute.

 

Some 16,000 cases were reported in South Kivu, where fighting has been raging, and many fear that's only the tip of the iceberg considering communications issues and lack of testing, leaving many cases of infection going unreported. When the authorities weren't themselves distracted by armed conflict, they lacked the resources, and specifically vaccines, to mitigate the disaster, allowing Mpox to circulate and mutate, even if current vaccines are said of being effective against different variants of Mpox.

 

But the closer one gets to the most affected zones, the less likely authorities have access to the vaccine, which is available in some 70 countries outside the region and has been successful helping eradicate previous outbreaks, ending the emergency in place until last year, though this may have been premature. The DRC had as of early September still no doses of vaccine, and while the first shipments were awaited in Africa this week from as far away as the United States, they would be just a small trickle considering some 10 million may be needed.

 

"This is a major issue," underscored Jean Kaseya of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said it managed to secure 1 million doses just recently but decried that the continent only managed to obtain 10% of the estimated $245 million it needed to tackle the outbreak. "We need to have vaccines and it is a major challenge." Something that goes without saying years into what has been a festering health crisis.

 

Spain and Germany soon joined in committing to send tens of thousands of doses but other countries stayed silent despite sitting on mountains of reserves, drawing criticism. Observers were particularly outraged Africa was still having so much trouble accessing a vaccine after having had similar difficulties obtaining covid shots four years ago, though at the time the continent was less stricken by that virus than others.

 

The latest Mpox wave is particularly affecting young people, a concern considering the large share of the population in that age group in the DRC. "Mpox isn't the new covid-19... We already know a lot about clade II, we have to learn more about clade I," said the World Health Organization's Hans Kluge. "So will we choose to put the systems in place to control and eliminate Mpox globally? Or will we enter another cycle of panic and neglect? How we respond now and in the years to come will prove a critical test."

 

France jumped into action opening over 230 vaccination sites. But the WHO itself has come under criticism for taking until late Summer to start the process to make the vaccine available to poorer countries, something observers said should have been done much sooner. "The processes and funding for diagnostics for Mpox should have started a few years ago," told Reuters Ayoade Alakija, who chairs a global health partnership. "It is a matter of what the world considers to be a priority" and it too often neglects "diseases that primarily affect black and brown people."

 

But the WHO says it lacked the data needed to start the process earlier and in the mean time urged countries to donate some of their stockpiles. Some fear lack of confidence in the response to such international crises may only encourage nations to hang on to their vaccine stockpiles rather than donate portions of them, in case the outbreaks reach their shores.

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A L'ATTAQUE

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Depuis plus de deux ans les scènes se répètent. Alors que la menace d'une invasion armée approche les milices évacuent les communautés en bordure de la frontière afin d'éviter de nouvelles victimes civiles dans un conflit russo-ukrainien où elles ont été nombreuses, les signatures de crimes de guerre.

 

Mais en août ces images provenaient du côté russe, un territoire qui subissait sa première invasion depuis la seconde guerre mondiale, donc, depuis le développement de l'arme nucléaire. En prévision d'éventuels pourparlers de paix, Kiev lançait non pas une contre-offensive mais une incursion qui a surpris les maîtres du Kremlin. Il s'agissait après tout des mêmes stratèges qui avaient anticipé une victoire éclair sur ce plus petit pays slave à l'ouest, trop à l'ouest, de la patrie.

 

Depuis quelques temps déjà les alliés de Volodymyr Zelensky lui permettent, ancien tabou, de se servir de certaines de leurs armes à l'intérieur du territoire russe, et celles-ci, qu'il s'agisse de tanks, missiles ou drones, multiplient leurs incursions, subjugant des centaines de précieux kilomètres carrés dans la région de Koursk, elle qui partage le nom d'un sous-marin qui a connu une fin tragique il y a presque un quart de siècle.

 

Après les échanges de prisonniers, comme ceux de fin août, Moscou serait-elle prête à échanger des terres si les tirs venaient bien un jour à cesser? C'est le calcul du président ukrainien qui redoute des condition de paix désavan-tageuses au final. Evidemment ce détournement de troupes rend d'autres régions du pays plus vulnérables, et l'opération permet à Poutine de justifier ses propres attaques à titre de gestes défensifs.

 

Ceci dit les deux pays sont au bord de l'épuisement, même si Kiev accueillait favorablement l'arrivée des premiers avions de chasse livrés par ses alliés, qui n'ont pas tardé à se mettre en action. Les nouvelles recrues dans chaque camp ont un entrainement insuffisant puis hésitent et parfois refusent même de tirer, pris de panique. Puis alors que l'Ukraine disait atteindre ses objectifs de créer une zone tampon, la Russie déclarait elle aussi étendre son contrôle, notamment dans la région de Donetsk qui ne connait que la guerre depuis des années.

 

L'assaut ukrainien constitue "la troisième humiliation militaire" de Poutine depuis le début du conflit, estime l'Atlantic Council. Evidemment ce geste n'est pas sans craindre une escalade du conflit, qui a déjà dépassé les soi-disant lignes rouges du maitre du Kremlin. Mais celles-ci perdent-elles alors leur sens? Depuis Moscou riposte avec un barrage de drones et de missiles de tous genres, notamment iraniens, et avertis-sait les Américains qu'ils risquaient une troisième guerre mondiale en permettant l'Ukraine de viser si loin dans son territoire.

 

L'Ukraine vient-elle de prendre l'initiative après des années à la défensive? L'impact sera important dans le camp adverse, selon l'analyste Brian Whitmore: "L'état russe s'apparente dorénavant à un syndicat du crime organisé, écrit-il. Et le moment le plus destabilisant pour tout syndicat criminel se présente quand le caïd parait faible." L'ancien premier ministre suédois Carl Bildt pour sa part estime que Poutine, qui parfois feint de caresser ses ogives nucléaires, est tout simplement "ébranlé" par cette offensive qui vient remonter "le moral et la détermination" en Ukraine.

 

D'autres en sont moins sûrs, l'analyste Emma Ashford reste "sceptique" quant à l'impact de cette offensive, et si elle procurera réellement "un avantage politique". Elle aura du moins pu faire oublier les espoirs déçus de l'an dernier, et mis un terme à l'inévitabilité d'une impasse qui laissait la Russie avec l'avantage de nouveaux gains territoriaux, après ceux de la Crimée il y a dix ans. "Les Ukrainiens remboursent toujour leurs dettes. Et quiconque souhaite le malheur sur notre terre le trouvera chez lui avec les intérêts, prononcera le président Zelensky. Quinconque cherche à semer le mal sur notre terre en récoltera les fruits sur son propre territoire."

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ENCORE PARMI NOUS

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Les Jeux de Paris n'étaient certainement pas comme ceux de Tokyo avec leurs estrades vides et mesures de protection extrêmes, ce qui n'a pas empêché le covid de s'inviter à la compétition. Une quarantaine d'athlètes auraient été infectés durant les Jeux, parmi eux l'Américain Noah Lynes, champion du 100m qui arrive, épuisé, 3e au 200m avant de s'écrouler dans une chaise roulante.

 

Il ne s'agissait pas du seul environnement où  le virus a fait son retour, de Washington à Ottawa jusqu'au Pacifique il a rappelé son existence, comptant parmi ses victimes le président des Etats-Unis, dont l'épisode a sans doute précipité la fin de sa candidature. Plus au nord la capitale canadienne, comme d'autres communautés, enregistrait de nouveau pics d'infection, assez pour que l'on retrouve le port du masque d'usage dans plusieurs commerces, où les affiches de distanciation qui peuvent exister datent d'il y a quelques années.

 

Aux caisses de plusieurs établissements  des employés favorisent le port du masque, notamment par souci pour leur clientèle plus âgée, elle aussi favorisant l'utilisation de masques hygiéniques. Mais les athlètes de haut niveau ne sont pas plus épargnés, plusieurs membres de l'équipe australienne féminine de water-polo ont été écartées de la compétition en raison de tests positifs, ce qui n'a pas empêché la formation de multiplier les victoires et d'éventuellement se retrouver en grande finale. Certes le virus n'a plus la même urgence que dans le passé, mais le Centers for Disease Control américain sonnait pourtant l'alarme de sa propagation, notamment quelques jours avant le diagnostic du président américain.

 

"Nous sommes dans une période où le covid circule toujours, nous voyons une nouvelle augmentation des cas, note Lucia Mullen de l'OMS, et nous sous-rapportons sans doute les niveaux. Plusieurs pays ont réduit leurs mesures de surveillance." Il s'agit notamment du cas en Ontario, où les boites de tests de dépistage gratuits ne sont plus autant disponibles publique-ment.

 

La province a également décidé de mettre fin à son analyse des eaux usées, elle qui a pourtant permis non seulement de sonner l'alarme sur les pointes d'infection de covid, mais qui permettait également de surveiller le développement d'autres incidents sanitaires. Le monde traverse un pic de contagion, avec des taux de positivité de covid de plus de 10% en général (plus de 20% en Europe) chose que certains croyaient improbable en plein été, comme si la canicule pouvait embraser les branches du virus comme elle a pu griller les campagnes ravagées par les feux de forêt d'Amérique du nord jusqu'en Grèce cet été.

 

"Nous sommes en pleine vague estivale, estime le docteur Andrew Pinto the St Michael's à Toronto. Une des choses uniques du covid est qu'il nous surprend comme peu d'autres pathogènes respiratoires. Il se répand même malgré l'absence d'air très froid et sec avec beaucoup de personnes à l'intérieur, ce que l'on constate normalement avec d'autres pathogènes comme l'influenza". Mais les canicules de l'été, de plus en plus fréquentes, font aussi en sorte que la population se réfugie dans des lieux climatisés, retrouvant un environnement semblable, et l'immunité des dernières années a progressivement été réduite sans nouvelle dose de vaccin, dont l'accès est recommandé cet automne chez les populations plus à risque.

 

Entre temps les chiffres sont à la hausse et ce rhume que vous trainez cet été est sans doute une version moins sévère du covid, note Pinto, d'où l'importance de ne pas exposer des personnes plus faibles ou âgées à votre condition. La traque du virus n'est pas la seule chose qui fait regretter l'abandon d'outils comme le fait l'Ontario. L'analyse des égoûts ontarienne, un modèle imité à travers le monde qui a coûté environ 10 à 15 millions de dollars par année, a servi de système d'alerte surveillé par des experts d'une douzaine d'universités canadiennes alarmés de perdre un outil clé alors que le domaine de la santé au pays croûle sous diverses pressions, notamment au Québec et en Ontario, et pourrait le faire davantage cet automne.

 

"Ca n'a pas de sens de l'annuler à ce stade, explique au Globe & Mail Eric Arts virologue à l'université Western. Ca ne vous avertit pas avant l'éclosion des cas mais de covid, mais avant les hospitalisations, ce qui est ce qui compte." Des analystes estiment également que l'analyse des eau usées donne un aperçu des pointes des cas de virus respiratoires touchant les enfants 12 jours à l'avance. Ces coupures surviennent également alors que le système de santé fait face à de nouvelles menaces dont la grippe aviaire H1N5 et  la variole du singe, ou mpox, déclarée urgence de santé publique internationale.

 

"L'analyse des eaux usées permet notamment de surveiller l'émergence de plusieurs pathogènes à la fois, rapidement et à moindre coût", résume Fiona Brinkman de l'Université Simon Fraser, évitant une facture sanitaire plus salée en pleine explosion de cas. Pendant ce temps le gouvernement canadien mettait à jour cet été son document aux entreprises intitulé Eclosions de grippe et de maladies infectieuses - Plan de continuité des opérations, afin de permettre au privé de se préparer à toute éventualité.

 

Au moins une équipe à Paris avait anticipé la vague de covid que l'on a rencontré. Les Pays-bas ont formellement interdit les embrassades et les poignées de mains lors des compétitions, applicant une politique du "fist bump" stricte pour éviter les infections. Maintenant reste à revoir cette décision de nager dans la Seine, qui a eu ses propres conséquences...

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STUDENT POWER

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One of South Asia's most populous countries was hardly at peace this winter when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh's founding father, once listed by Forbes as one of the world's 100 most powerful women, won her fourth term. Her sweeping victory came as the opposition, which suspected the vote would not be free or fair, boycotted the poll that eventually netted her Awami league 222 of 300 parliamentary seats.

 

There was grumbling but hardly worrisome dissent despite the 76-year-old's growing autocratic tendencies, who to her credit had led the country through years of economic growth, enabling Bangladesh to make impressive headways in health, education, and women’s employment. But that dissent would explode months after that contested re-election when students protested against a controversial quota system for much-prized government jobs that they said favored supporters of the regime. In mid-July those autocratic tendencies were plain to see when protests became more intense amid curfews and shoot-to-kill orders.

 

By the end of the month over 100 had been killed, but the protests only picked up steam despite a decision by the Supreme Court to reduce the quotas of these job allocations. Demonstrators demanded an investigation into the crackdown and called for Hasina's head, defying the curfews and marching, despite an internet blackout, in great numbers into the center of Dhaka as the death toll reached 300. Instead of cracking down further, the military stood down and announced Hasina had fled the country as officials consulted with the president on the formation of an interim government, sparking nation-wide celebrations.

 

The soldiers appealed for calm as protesters ransacked Hasini's quarters, and said it would "investigate the killings and punish those responsible." Parliament was suspended and student groups warned they would not accept a military-run government. The crisis occurs as the country suffers from economic crisis and high unemployment amid criticism by rights groups of growing repression and crack downs on dissent by the regime.

 

"These are the heroes and heroines," said civil society activist Badiul Majumdar of the protesters. "We had a crazy dictator. What we are now concerned about is who will benefit from this revolution? And that, in fact, is what we are watching - a revolution." Or at very least a strong case of people power. Hours after the prime minister fled Bangladesh’s president ordered the release of jailed former prime minister and ailing opposition leader Khaleda Zia, as the country prepared for the transition before elections are eventually held to replace the leadership.

 

The military also said it was releasing some 2,000 people arrested during the protests. The brass has a “very tough job ahead,” said Irene Khan, a UN special rapporteur. “We are all hoping that the transition would be peaceful and that there will be accountability for all the human rights violations that have taken place.” In the mean time the soldiers turned to Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus to head the interim government. He founded the prize-winning Grameen Bank which provides microcredits, offering small loans to poor people who have no collateral. Drawing from civil society, his interim government will help the country on the path to peace and elections, Yunus vowed. A statement citizens hope will ring true amid calls for unity.