LE CONTREPOIDS
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Se tourner vers l'Europe? Non l'idée n'est pas nouvelle, elle refait d'ailleurs son apparition occasionnellement lorsque le Canada connait une période de tension avec son voisin américain. Il y a déjà cinquante ans un papier du secrétaire d'état aux affaires extérieures Mitchell Sharp proposait une "troisième option" afin de faire face aux tensions apportées par la présidence de Nixon en pleine période de crise économique, celle de faire contrepoids au géant du sud en tissant des liens plus étroits avec les maitres du passé, les nations du vieux continent.
C'était ça ou préserver un statu-quo plutôt intenable ou sinon approfondir les relations avec les Etats-Unis. En fin de compte c'est cette dernière option qui a été retenue, avec le libre-échange bilatéral puis trilatéral, que l'on marque régulièrement lors du sommet Trois Amigos, réunissant les dirigeants nord-américains. Cependant ce sommet n'a pas eu lieu l'an passé, alors qu'il devait être organisé au Canada. Un autre sommet est prévu au Canada cette année, celui du G7 qui regroupe les puissances européennes et le Japon.
Est-ce un signe du besoin de raffermir les liens avec l'UE? Il y a dix ans l'idée a également croisé les esprits alors que l'environnement économique subissait d'importants change-ments, le premier ministre Harper voyant le salut dans la capacité de "diversifier nos liens économiques", son ministre du commerce se penchant sur la perspective de "nouveaux marchés... bien au-delà de l'Amérique du nord" puisque "nous ne pouvons pas dépendre d'un seul marché". Fait intéressant, le gouverneur de la banque du Canada à l'époque, Mark Carney, qui brigue la candidature du poste de chef du parti libéral, et du fait, de premier ministre, s'accordait à dire que le Canada était "surexposé aux Etats-Unis et sous-exposé" à ces autres marchés en pleine croissance.
Avec le temps le Canada a rejoint la Commission de l’Accord de partenariat transpacifique global et progressiste, dont il était le président l'an dernier, et a conclu une entente de libre échange avec l'UE, même si certains membres, dont la France, s'y sont opposés. Le Canada dépend d'un autre pays pour plusieurs de ses biens importés, mais il s'agit de la Chine. Le Canada a même vu naître une nouvelle frontière terrestre avec l'UE lorsqu'il s'est entendu pour diviser l'ile Hans avec le Danemark, mettant fin à des années d'un différend plutôt rigolo.
Mais la menace américaine de l'actuelle présidence, qui n'a rien de si drôle, pourrait-elle pousser le Canada vers l'UE? Il faut dire que le libre-échange avec l'Europe n'a pas plus réduit sa dépendance envers les Etats-Unis (75% du commerce) que le papier de la troisième option. « Du point de vue politique, je pense que c'est invraisemblable, livre à La Presse Justin Massie, spécialiste en politique étrangère à l'UQAM. Mais le Canada pourrait chercher à se rapprocher de manière beaucoup plus profonde avec l'Europe. C'est une idée que je défends depuis des années. »
Un rapprochement à la norvégienne peut-être, fortement intégrée à l'UE sans y être membre. Confronté, comme plusieurs autres pays, à la chèreté, le Canada pourrait se tourner vers le vieux continent en matière de télécommunications, le prix des services cellulaires y étant beaucoup moins cher, ou pour l'alimentaire, Carrefour étant un grand absent du marché canadien, lui qui est si visible en Europe mais aussi ailleurs dans le monde. La chaine Super U a sa seule enseigne nord-américaine... à Saint-Pierre au large de Terre-Neuve. En revanche le Canada pourrait finalement développer son réseau d'exportation energéti-que pour livrer ailleurs qu'aux Etats-Unis, et davantage diversifier la clientèle de ses minéraux. Ou l'idée n'est-elle, encore une fois, que passagère?
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ON THE BRINK?
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After years of lying precariously on the brink of full-out war over a mineral-rich region amid ethnic tensions, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo moved even closer to a regional conflict following the recent incursion of Rwandan troops in support of M23 rebels as they advanced to seize the Eastern city of Goma.
The new wave of violence sent hundreds of thousands of refugees, not for the first time, fleeing the conflict, displacing a longstanding humanitarian catastrophe compounded by the attacks of multiple rebel groups. Last week East African leaders sought to calm tensions by organizing a summit in Nairobi to bring together the leaders of the two disputing countries, but Congo's Tshisekedi declined to attend.
The conflict has been dragging on for decades in the aftermath of the Rwanda genocide which sent refugees fleeing into neighboring Congo, some of whom Kigali accuses of being behind the atrocities. Kinshasa has accused Rwanda of "declaring war" by sending its soldiers into Congo to back the M23 rebels, which have been supported by Kigali to defend Tutsis it says are being persecuted by Hutus in Congo. Kigali claimed it was acting in a self-defense and accused Kinshasa of harboring actors responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
The recent violence has killed hundreds and resulted in the death of peacekeepers who are part of a mission in place since 1999 to monitor the peace process of a previous conflict between Congo, Rwanda and Uganda. The latest violence provoked protests and unrest in Kinshasa where demonstrators attacked foreign embassies representing countries they say have done nothing to condemn Rwanda's actions.
The international community's intervention had previously ousted the rebels from Goma. While M23 is leading the offensive against Kinshasa's troops, it represents but one of some 100 militant groups active in the country. "The difference today is that it's more than just the M23," explains Rob Kabamba of Liege university. "There's a whole coalition of Congolese groups... whose claims go beyond the usual talk of protecting Tutsis. It varies from the need to improve living conditions to the legitimacy of democratic institutions."
Some groups go as far as to claim the current Congolese government isn't legitimate after what they consider sham elections in 2018 and 2023. Nor is Rwanda the only country eyeing Congo's riches, Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania and even Kenya, which sought to organize the latest summit, are closely following who controls North-Kivu's many resources, notably mineral resources such as cobalt, coltan and gold.
But Rwanda is Kinshasa's main concern and the government refuses to negotiate with the M23, which it considers a terrorist group. "The signs are unmistakable," said Congo's foreign minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner at the UN. "Rwanda is preparing to wage carnage with a brutality which harkens back to the darkest hours of our history." Not willing to let history repeat itself, Tshisekedi vowed Congo's response would be rigorous.
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LOIN DE LA PAIX
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Presque dix ans après l'accord de paix qui devait mettre fin à la violence en Colombie, celle-ci reprend de plus belle alors que la production de cocaïne atteint des sommets. En janvier le président Gustavo Petro décrétait l'état d'urgence après une semaine d'affrontements terrifiants entre différents groupes de guérilla, faisant 100 morts et 20000 déplacés en quelques jours. Il peut sembler bien lointain cet accord de 2016 conclu avec les Forces armées révolutionnaires de Colombie (FARC), qui se sont mises à épouser une approche plus politique que martiale.
L'Armée de libération nationale (ELN) cependant avait gardé le maquis. Non seulement ces derniers restent toujours actifs, menant à des éclats avec les narcotrafiquants du nord du pays, mais des anciens membres du FARC qui ont repris les armes dans le sud s'opposent à leurs anciens frères de combat, prenant la nation entière en étau. Après des décennies de guerre contre le narcotrafic, celui-ci dicte encore et toujours le cours des événements en Colombie, notamment dans le nord où fleurit cette culture lucrative.
C'est dans cette région, dans le département de Bolivar, où l'ELN se livre à une lutte féroce avec le cartel de du Clan del Golfo, tandis que plus au sud le groupe "Calarca", qui négocie la paix avec le gouvernement, s'oppose violemment à celui d'"Ivan Mordisco", qui rejette ces efforts. L'armée colombienne est en un premier temps spectatrice dans cette montée de violence, s'occupant de venir en aide aux populations prises entre les tirs.
"Nous avons aidé à la sécurité et la logistique et plus de 19 800 personnes ont été accueillies dans des refuges", résumait le général Erik Rodriguez. Les populations civiles ont entre autre cherché refuge au Venezuela, un pays lui-même peu épargné par la crise, qui a ouvert des centres de refuge près de la frontière. Mais si les forces colombiennes ne sont pas encore directement impliquées dans ce conflit mêlant guérilla, narcos et groupe paramilitaires, ça ne va pas durer.
La reprise des violences constitue un échec pour Petro, cet ancien rebelle gauchiste arrivé au pouvoir, comme d'autres avant lui, déterminé à mettre fin aux éclats. Ce dernier a dû couper court les négociations avec l'ELN, qu'il accuse de commettre des "crimes de guerre". Il estime que le groupe a "emprunté le chemin de Pablo Escobar", et par conséquent "a choisi le chemin de la guerre", ajoutant qu'en fin de compte il "aura la guerre".
Un triste dénouement dans ce pays longtemps rongé par le conflit qui tentait ces dernières années de redorer son image par le tourisme. Selon l'ONU la production de coca a augmenté de 53% par rapport à l'année précédente en 2023, représen-tant 253000 hectares de cette culture lucrative dont le trafic a augmenté la criminalité au long de son parcours, notamment en Equateur et au Mexique mais également dans les Caraïbes où une flambée de violence a mis 12 de ses nations dans la liste des plus meurtrières au monde. Il s'agissait de la dixième année de suite que la production de poudre augmentait, remontant aux débuts des accords de paix. Ceux-ci laissent par conséquent de plus en plus a désirer.
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TRUDEAU'S FALL
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The location was familiar and indeed significant, the porch of a cottage in the outskirts of Ottawa where the Canadian prime minister addressed his countrymen with regularity to keep them updated on the fight against the covid pandemic that was keeping them locked up at home. While the setting of Rideau cottage may have harkened back to a time when Trudeau rose to the occasion, leading the country in the fight against the pandemic, it also reminded some members of the public of a difficult period marked by widely unpopular covid mandates and the Emergencies Act, which in time mined his popularity and eventually gave the Conservatives a clear path to victory in 2025.
Nearly five years after that health crisis erupted, and nearly a decade after becoming the country's leader, Justin Trudeau chose the same setting to announce he would step down as Liberal party leader to allow someone else to run against the Pierre Poilievre Conservative freight train dominating the polls for over a year. The announcement was by then no longer a surprise and had been widely expected in fact after weeks of pressure not only from opposition politicians, including key partners that helped prop up his minority government, but within the Liberal party as well.
After the resignation of a number of his deputy minister and finance minister on the day she was to deliver her fall economic statement, that was too much to bear. "As you know I am a fighter," he said in his first TV address in weeks, adding "It has become obvious to me, with the internal battles, that I cannot be the one to carry the Liberal standard in the next election." He reiterated he didn't think his opponent, whose party is comfortably leading the Liberals in polls, was the right person to steer the country considering his stance on climate change and social policies.
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It didn't take long for Poilievre to release a video noting every Liberal MP and "potential Liberal member-ship contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years," pointing to high inflation and rising crime as well as the housing crisis. He reiterated calls for an immediate federal election. But Trudeau said he would stay on as Liberal leader until a new one is chosen, launching a snap leadership campaign in an election year marked by the challenge of the incoming US administration.
The Conservatives have been releasing similar campaign-looking videos of the sort for months, helped by healthy party coffers. Some of the slogans of axing the taxes, fixing the budget and building the homes have already grown old months before an expected early election. Trudeau leaves the political scene undefeated after winning three elections and prolonging his second minority mandate with the help of opposition support, but byelection losses, MP departures and dropping polls brought an end to a leadership initially launched under the international splash of "Trudeaumania".
The departure of Chrystia Freeland in December had made staying at the helm untenable. Like other leaders in the West from Britain to the United States next door, Trudeau was swept by the winds of change after a long tenure. Remarkably the prime minister seemed to think the leader eventually chosen by his party would be able to somehow eke out a win in a coming confidence vote, but opposition leaders made plain they would oust the Liberals at the first occasion.
Such a vote of confidence is expected as soon as parliament resumes after the current prorogation period, which has shuts down the work of the House of Commons until late March. A new party leader would emerge on March 9th. Soon after Trudeau's announcement potential contenders started joustling for position, among them cabinet members but also the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England; the person who was rumored to take over Freeland's job, prompting her to quit the government in a storm pre-emptively.
Time was of the essence for the party to choose a leader in time for an election campaign that looked more and more like a victory lap for the opposition. This did not prevent Freeland and Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor, from tossing their hats into the ring despite slim to non existent chances of success. As consolation, the leadership winner automatically becomes prime minister.
Carney could accomplish this without even holding a seat. Freeland, however, runs the risk of repeating the short tenure of Canada's sole female prime minister, Kim Campbell, if she were to win the leadership. Both candidates gave signs early on they may be willing to bring changes to the carbon tax, which is highly unpopular among many Canadians despite delivering regular cheques to those living in participating provinces, taking away a Tory slogan.
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CANADA'S NEW PM
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Mere days into his new role as Canadian prime minister Mark Carney was taking off on a foreign visit to France and the UK in an attempt to reinforce ties with "reliable allies" which spoke volumes about the close trans-Atlantic ties and frigid relations with the US administration. The post-Trudeau political transition has hardly been conventional. By electing their new leader, Canada's Liberals chose the country's prime minister at a time of tense trade frictions with the neighbor to the south.
In a landslide win Carney, 59, took nearly 86% of the vote in the first ballot, amounting to the coronation of a non-elected official some feared, but convincing enough to rally the troops, including his leadership rivals, to take on Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. Carney, who becomes a PM without a seat, in fact welcomed his Liberal opponent, Chrystia Freeland, into his cabinet, but not Karina Gould, another rival who ran against him.
Well before taking office Carney acknowledged the current challenges, including an increasingly aggressive US administration “will take extraordinary efforts... We will have to do things that we haven’t imagined before, at speeds we didn’t think possible,” but said he was bullish on the country's future seeing “big changes, guided by strong Canadian values.”
The former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England skyrocketed in popularity, quickly becoming the candidate preferred, not only among Liberals but in the country as a whole, to take on Donald Trump, even making the Liberals competitive nationally after being 20 points behind the Tories for the last year. Recent polls even had the Liberals leading the Tories nationally for the first time in three years.
But Carney struggled during a French TV debate and his difficulty explaining his financial holdings has been the subject of Conservative attacks, and will remain in the crossfire in the weeks ahead as the country heads straight to the polls. Carney could become Canada's most short-lived prime minister if he fails to upset Poilievre in the general election. In the mean time he wasted no time reaching out to the US administration, before his swearing in, but made plain there would be no meeting until the US toned down the rhetoric.
His first trip abroad, to Paris and London, symbolized the importance Europe was taking at a time of frigid US ties. Carney and Trudeau had by then agreed on a rapid transition. The latter, who in his final speech said the country of 41 million is facing "a nation-defining moment" leaves the highest office in the land his head high despite the party's downfall in the last year.
Trump's tariffs threat enabled him to once more play the kind of leadership role he had displayed during the pandemic, uniting the provincial premiers and Canadians against a foreign threat. While the Liberals have been pressured to call an election ever since a deal with the opposition NDP collapsed, leader Jagmeet Singh, who is tanking in the polls, said he may once again be willing to support the Grits in exchange for measures to protect Canadians affected by the tariffs. Carney however seemed ready to head right into a federal election, now that his leadership is secured with approval numbers even Trudeau had not obtained.
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PUTTING THE BREAKS ON FAST TRACKING?
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Amid cries in favor of national unity in the face of threats from the southern neighbor, Canada has seen the rise of separatist sentiment, not in French-speaking Quebec, where the approach has been to raise unified elbows like it's 1812, but in Alberta, which has long been alienated by Ottawa's energy policy, or this time, the lack of it.
To calm concerns, the federal government has toned down the green energy focus of the Trudeau years, promising in fact not only to reconsider building more pipelines in order to make the country an energy superpower, but also fast track major infra-structure projects. This attempt to quell Western alienation has however raised concerns in another community, that of the nation's Indigenous peoples, a reminder oil and the country's first people don't always mix so well.
Concern rose again recently when Alberta and Ontario inked a deal on pipelines to force Ottawa's hand, despite concerns by Indigenous people and environmen-talists. "These MOUs are about building pipelines and boosting trade that connect Canadian energy and products to the world," said Alberta premier Danielle Smith.
A group of Ontario First Nations filed a constitutional challenge against bills to speed up such energy projects. Before the pandemic changed the conversation in early 2020, protests erupted across Canada after arrests made during demonstrations against pipeline construction through British Columbia's Wet'suwet'en First Nation territory. The protests notably included blockades and rail disruption.
This summer Native groups warned against plans to fast-track investment projects without their input, as Ottawa rushed a first series of meetings to quell concerns. Alberta itself has seen confrontation over such matters in the past. In 1988 the Lubecon Cree of Little Buffalo, in northern Alberta, set up blockades and asserted their independence after the oil boom of the 1970s on their land scared away moose and other game that were such an important part of their heritage.
This brought the intervention of armed police who put an end to the protest and arrested over two dozen participants. At the heart of the dispute was the fact the Lubicon Lake Band was missed by Treaty Commissioners during Treaty 8 negotiations at the end of the 19th century and not allocated a reserve, missing out on receiving treaty benefits due to its remote location, over 460 km north of Edmonton.
Decades of disputes followed until a settlement 30 years after the 1988 incident, which included 246 square kilometers of land, $113 million in financial compensation and funding for much-needed infrastructure like housing, roads, and utilities. But some community members regret the disastrous results of oil development on the land.
"You fly out of the airport area and you see the beauty, the initial beauty of the boreal," told PBS community resident and activist Melina Laboucan-Massimo. "And then as you get more north going towards the mines, you start seeing Mordor, no longer forest, basically complete defores-tation down into the Earth’s core." Many worry this is what fast-tracking projects has in store, including fewer environmental surveys and more devastation.
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AUX ARMES
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Alors que l'Iran et Israël respectent un délicat cessez-le-feu après leurs échanges de tirs, le Japon met à l'essai un premier missile sur son territoire tandis qu'à l'autre bout de la planête le budget militaire ukrainien passe d'un milliard en 2022 à 35 milliards en 2025.
C'est à l'image de l'Otan qui annonce une augmentation sans précédent de ses dépenses militaires. Ses porte-paroles aiment dire qu'ils s'arment pour ne jamais avoir à faire la guerre et mieux préserver la paix, mais celle-ci paraît plus lointaine que jamais. C'est pourtant cette paix que voulait préserver à tout prix l'ONU lors de son lancement il y 80 ans.
A présent l'heure est grâve sur plusieurs fronts. N'a-t-on pas juste frôlé le désastre nucléaire, non au Moyen-orient, mais en Asie lors des échanges de tirs entre l'Inde et le Pakistan? On perd le compte des crises, et pour cause, selon des experts l'heure n'a jamais été aussi grâve de manière générale depuis la fin de la Seconde guerre mondiale.
Les neuf forces nucléaires du monde ont toutes augmenté leur arsenal en 2024, et si l'on pensait éliminer la menace nucléaire avec ces frappes américaines en Iran, détromprez-vous, disent les observateurs, Téhéran n'a subi que des pertes relativement modestes, lui permettant de reprendre son programme nucléaire, qui selon le régime, se veut purement énergétique. Et les frappes ont même possiblement renforcé ce besoin de se doter d'une force de disuasion nucléaire.
De manière générale le désarmement nucléaire semble avoir atteint un cul-de-sac selon l'Institut de recherche international sur la paix de Stockholm, notant le gel du dialogue entre Washington et Moscou sur les questions stratégiques. D'habitude ouverte au dialogue avec la Russie de Poutine, la Maison blanche semble avoir changé de cap depuis l'échec des pourparlers sur la paix en Ukraine. Le nombre d'armes nucléaires a grimpé lors des 12 derniers mois.
Selon l'institut le nombre d'ogives nucléaires aurait atteint 9614, soit une croissance de 0,3% depuis l'an dernier. Le total atteint 12241 si l'on compte celles qui ont été retirées. D'autant plus que, comme dans tous les autres domaines, de l'économie au militaire, la Chine effectue un travail de rattrapage, cherchant à jouer dans la cour des grands, la Russie (4300) et les Etats-Unis (3700) dépassant de loin les 600 détenues par Pékin.
Cette dernière poursuit ainsi "une modernisation et expansion importante" de son arsenal selon l'institut stockholmois. C'est tout de même déjà le double du niveau de la France (300) et de la Grande-Bretagne (225). Pékin avance au train de 100 ogives par année. Le dialogue entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine n'est guerre mieux qu'avec Moscou en raison des différends sur Taïwan. Mais Moscou et Washington, qui détiennent 90% des ogives, ne comptent pas en rester là.
"Les deux états modernisent de manière importante leurs programmes de manière à augmenter sa taille et la diversité de leurs arsenaux dans l'avenir" note l'institut. L'augmentation risque de se poursuivre si le traité actuel de limitation n'est pas renoué d'ici février. Puis la crise avec Téhéran a rompu les liens avec l'Agence internationale de l'énegie atomique, mettant fin à toute tentative de transparence du régime.
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SORRY NOT SORRY
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So it turns out, the Buy Canada movement that encouraged the citizens of the Great White North to avoid US products and travel didn't sputter and die after a few weeks, still going strong six months into the new provocative US presidency which triggered it.
Canadians it turns out are still turning their nose at US shopping, especially as new higher tariffs kick in, and this in places that are so intimately tied to the giant neighbor to the south they nearly form two threads of the same quilt. While New Brunswickers have seen a flood of visitors from neighboring provinces such as Quebec and Nova Scotia, they themselves have been cutting cross-border US travel despite a stable Canadian dollar.
On a lookout feasting the eyes over the Bay of Fundy four of the six parked vehicles are from La belle province, and while residents of the only officially bilingual province in the country will engage effortlessly in both French and English, the version of the Langue de Moliere heard here has a sharp Quebecois accent between the monoliths of the famous Hopewell Rocks at low tide. And while the locals are not of the sort to speak unkindly of anyone, they are keeping their resistance to themselves and voting with their feet by bypassing the US wherever they can.
On a ferry to Deer Island, west of Saint John, Bob looks out on the Bay of Fundy, camera in hand, for the possible dolphin, seal or even whale sighting, reminiscing how he would usually go to nearby Maine on a regular basis, whether to spend some time there or to travel across to other parts of Canada, something he rather avoids now. "I don't want to go anywhere near (the US) now" since Donald Trump has come into office, he says as the US coast comes into view.
That can be tricky in an area where the border is so close Canadian cell phones can start roaming on US networks, a costly turn of events which has surprised him more than once. "Now my phone is programmed to prevent that." He is also wary of possible cellphone searches at the border and what have become the perils of boating too close to US waters. A Quebec fisher recently found out the hard way US border guards were watching the shared waterways with zeal under the new administration, spending time in US custody before being released, a traumatizing experience from which he has yet to recover.
Avoiding the US is particularly hard for residents of an island a short ferry ride away from Deer island, Campobello island, whose only link with the mainland is to Lubec, Maine, where islanders get their supplies. New retaliatory tariff measures applied at the border meant they were at first subjected a tax levy upon returning to Canada with their loot, before the federal government granted them an exemption earlier this year "in recognition of the island's unique situation." Still some residents there, who have limited shopping choices, have started to avoid the US as much as they can.
Among them local library manager Stephanie Gough told CBC she stopped crossing the bridge into Lubec multiple times a day to go shopping or to see friends, and has chosen to avoid going as much as she can. A sad turn of events disrupting these tightly knit cross-border communities, prompted by the US president's more provocative statements, which includes calling Canadians "mean" and "nasty" for cutting travel and avoiding US products.
Not long after Maritime Swag advertised a T-shirt inscribed with "Mean and nasty Canadians eh?" around cartoons of a beaver and moose. "They called us mean and nasty," the company posted. "But we're just over here minding our own business, sipping coffee, rocking plaid, and being unapologetically Canadian." Rather it's Americans doing the apologizing, both when we visit and when they do. "We do get Americans, and they apologize" for what their leader says, points out a business owner in Ottawa's Byward market.
Travel from Canada to the US was down over 30% in June, not insignificant as Canadians are by far the largest cohort of travellers there, spending over $20 billion annually. And for the first time in years more Americans visited Canada than the other way around. But on Deer Island, where a wildlife used to human presence can be spotted easily from the road, residents shake their heads at the ongoing dispute, still flying now faded dual flags, half Maple Leaf, half Star Spangled Banner, waiting for the storm to pass but keeping their heads high. And not only here.
At the other end of the country BC resident Tod Maffin was perfecting an activity Canadians have been engaging in during the last few months. "I manually counted every type of fruit and vegetable at nine grocery stores in Nanaimo. Thousands of them," he writes. "Now I know which grocery stores had the most American produce on their shelves." Sorry not sorry. But all is not lost. Residents of St Stephen, NB and Calais, Maine still found time to carry out with their summer tradition of gathering on the international bridge linking their communities to celebrate neighborly traditions, and this year, even hug it out a little.
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LE RECUL SALVADORIEN
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Son approche autoritaire a considérablement réduit la violence des gangs et inspiré de nombreux voisins, bien que des observateurs internationaux aient condamné la méthode employée. Le président salvadorien Nayib Bukele a depuis fait de son pays un dépotoir de demandeurs d'asile refoulés, faisant de lui un ami proche du président américain; les deux partageant un intérêt pour la cryptomonnaie, qui est presque devenue une devise nationale.
Ré-élu avec 85% des voix l'an dernier, sa popularité est indéniable, mais les critiques du régime n'ont pas tardé à qualifier de "dictatoriale" sa réforme constitutionnelle mettant fin aux limites de mandat, un geste qui n'a pas échappé à l'attention de son allié américain. Avec l'importante majorité de son parti Nouvelles idées dans la législature, Bukele n'a eu aucune difficulté à faire passer le projet de loi contentieux, une date que ses opposants ont qualifié de jour de deuil de la démocratie au Salvador.
Ceux-ci fondent d'ailleurs comme une peau de chagrin suivant une série d'arrestations qui en a fait fuir plusieurs et baillonné les médias alors que le gouvernement contrôle la plupart des institutions au pays. Tous les outils du petit despote dans une région où les exemples, historiquement, ne font pas défaut. Le cheminement semblait logique après l'irruption de soldats dans la législature lors de son premier mandat, le remplacement des juges de la cour suprême par des fidèles et cette ré-élection rendue possible par une nouvelle interprétation de la constitution.
C'est à peine s'il fallait vraiment la changer. La réforme, qui aurait dû prendre plusieurs mois et exigé de nombreux débats, a d'ailleurs été effectuée en un temps record, à peine trois heures, du dépôt d'une simple proposition au passage de la loi, 57 voix contre trois. Menace à la démocratie?
Le président de l'assemblée voyait les choses autrement, Ernesto Castro trouvant dans "ces mesures décisives" l'assurance "d'une démocratie plus forte, juste et efficace." Bertha Maria Deleon, avocate qui a changé de cap après avoir travaillé pour Bukele jusqu'en 2019, y voit autre chose. "Depuis cette occupation du parlement il a clairement suivi le manuel des dictateurs," dit-elle à Reuters.
Les réformes ajoutent d'ailleurs un an au mandat présidentiel et avancent le prochain scrutin pour le fixer en 2027. Même son de cloche réprobateur de Gina Romero, rapporteur spécial des droits à la liberté aux Nations unies: "Bukele a le contrôle absolu des cours, du congrès, des médias et du narratif. Si cela n'est pas de l'autocratie je ne sais pas ce que c'est." En fait mettre fin aux limites de mandat serait, à elle seule, la moins pire des transgressions, puisqu'elles n'existent pas dans plusieurs démocraties du monde.
Bukele ne s'est pas privé de le rappeler: "Quatre vingt dix pourcent des pays développés permettent la re-éléctions indéfinie de leur chef de gouvernement et personne n'en fait une histoire, dit-il. Mais quand un petit pays pauvre comme le Salvador tente de faire la même chose, tout d'un coup c'est la fin de la démocratie."
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JAPAN'S HARD RIGHT
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Like other far-right politicians he too has a soft spot for the brash US president, rants about foreigners and is rather kind to Russia in its war against Ukraine. Having embraced social media to the point of becoming a Youtube star pushing conspiracy theories and anti-vax arguments, where he got his starts, Sohei Kamiya and his fringe Sanseito party also appeal to Japan's youth, although that may be limiting on the ageing peninsula.
But in recent elections his support, while being short of an electoral tsunami, was enough to make the 47-year-old a big winner, taking 15 seats, and a rising star in the politics hailing from the land of the rising sun. Inspired by Germany's AfD extremists, Sanseito would see Japan rise beyond the supporting role it has limited itself to since WWII, looking with nostalgia back to those days where the emperor was more than a symbolic figure but wielded power to be feared and whose voice alone moved citizens to tears.
While the political scenario was a familiar one in the West, Kamiya's sudden rise caught observers by surprise in a country not known for its outbursts. Then again Japan's relatively peaceful setting doesn't make it any safer from the occasional political assassination. "We did not expect (such a breakthrough by the hard right) in the beginning of the campaign," told La Presse Yves Tiberghien of the University of British Columbia. "It all played out in about two or three weeks."
A champion of making Japan Great Again, Kamiya rails against a "deep state" backed by globalists. "He's always adding subject matters to his political colouring board," Tiberghien says. "Kamiya is a revisionist on Japan's role in the Second World War, is pro-army, against LGBTQ equality but by grabbing on to immigration he and his party climbed in the polls in recent weeks."
Traditionally closed Japan has historically limited immigration and made access difficult for newcomers, but the previous government of Shinzo Abe lessened some of the restrictions somewhat as the workforce got older and the demographic crisis worsened. According to polls demographics is a concern for future generations due to the dismal birth rate, among the lowest in the industrialized world.
Countries have often turned to immigration to change this but migration to Japan is both limited and difficult if growing. A decade ago some 2,2 million foreigners with permits, less than 2% of the population, lived across the country, relatively low by Western standards but double what it had been 25 years before, when Koreans made the vast majority of migrants. In time this has increased xenophobia among some members of the population, which targeted this minority. A racist organization, Zatokukai, accused them of taking advantage of social and fiscal benefits.
NGOs called for a ban of their racist demonstrations and a Hate Speech Act was eventually put in place in 2016 but by some accounts remains vague in its definition of hate speech. During the recent election Liberal Democratic Party lower house lawmaker Mio Sugita lost her seat in part following the backlash related to 2016 blog posts in which she described ethnic Ainu and ethnic Korean women dressed in traditional costumes as partaking in ‘cosplay’.
Other minorities have been the subject of racist protests, notably Kawaguchi's Kurdish community. But temporary visitors have also been fingered. A cheaper yen has made visits to the country popular. A record just short of 37 million travelled there last year, some unfortunately bringing their bad manners with them. Observers say Sanseito used growing anti-foreigner sentiment this to fuel their rise. "They have spread false information about foreigners [saying that they're] creating large amounts of crime and threatening the public order," says Jeffrey Hall of Kanda University of International Studies. "They have also been fixated on the idea of foreigners buying property."​
QUI POUR DIRIGER HAITI?
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On n'avait pas tort de penser qu'Haïti était sans gouverne depuis quelques mois, mais ce n'est que la semaine dernière que le premier ministre a rendu sa démission après des semaines de pression de la part des gangs qui terrorisent cette bien torturée perle des Antilles.
A peine quelques jours en fait après la signature longuement attendue d'un accord sur l'envoi de policiers kenyans pour venir en aide à leurs collègues débordés, les évémenents en décidèrent autrement, et la mission qui devait ramener un semblant de paix était en suspens. Le premier ministre Ariel Henry annonçait son départ alors qu'un conseil présidentiel de transition se mettait à l'oeuvre afin de désigner un dirigeant intérimaire.
C'est un pacte entre les gangs qui dominent l'ile, unissant leurs forces afin de faire tomber le gouvernement, du moins ce qu'il en restait, qui a précipité la crise, suivi de l'attaque de l'aéroport - empêchant le retour du premier ministre de l'étranger - du port et de prisons, causant la libération de centaines de détenus, semant davantage la zizanie à Hispaniola où on avait déclenché l'état d'urgence.
Le secrétaire général de l'ONU Antonio Guterres a depuis fait appel à une "action urgente" de la part des états membres, mais difficile de voir comment la situation pouvait être plus urgente, l'attaque du port rendant la livraison de l'aide humanitaire presque impossible. "Si on ne peut pas avoir accès aux conteneurs Haïti va mourir de faim," estimait Laurent Uwumuremyi de l'organisme Mercy Corps. Les autorités américaines craignaient un effondrement du pouvoir imminent alors que les diplomates fuyaient le pays tandis qu'un pont aérien crucial était établi avec la République dominicaine avoisinnante.
Accusé d'être derrière ces attaques, et d'innombrables autres atrocités, Jimmy 'Barbecue' Chérizier, chef du gang G9, avait averti que sans cette démission du premier ministre le pays allait "tout droit vers une guerre civile qui conduira à un génocide". L'ancien policier de 46 ans sous le régime de sanctions de l'ONU se défend de répandre le chaos, accusant le pouvoir d'être responsable de l'écroulement de la nation.
"Ce sont les politiciens qui sont les vrais coupables. Les politiciens et oligarques corrompus ont apporté toutes les armes dans les quartiers populaires pour leur intérêt personnel mais pas pour le pays." Voilà donc depuis quelque temps qu'Haïti sombre dans le désordre perpétré par le mariage de gangs et partis politiques, notamment depuis l'assassinat du président en 2021, et l'enquête qui se poursuit sur cet événement sinistre malgré tout a porté d'étonnantes accusations, une d'elles contre la veuve du défunt chef d'état.
Henry à présent écarté, quel avenir pour ce triste pays? Washington exige une transition accélérée vers une autre gouvernance avec l'annonce prochaine d'élections. Car sur le terrain ce qu'il reste à sauver diminue peu à peu, notamment un système de santé «proche de l'effondrement», selon l'ONU, notant que «de nombreux établissements de santé sont fermés ou ont dû réduire drastiquement leurs opérations en raison d'une pénurie inquiétante de médicaments et de l'absence du personnel médical», évoquant également des pénuries de sang, d'équipements médicaux ou de lits pour traiter les blessés par balles.
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THE PERILS OF LEADERSHIP
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Less than two years into her mandate, Gatineau's first female mayor said she had had enough of the toxic environment, harassment, intimidation, and even death threats, and resigned. France Belisle wasn't alone a municipal organization noted as she bid her constituents goodbye, hundreds of other municipal leaders had done the same in previous months in Quebec.
Belisle herself said she regretted the "exodus" of officials, citing the resignation of the young mayor of the small community of Chapais and the temporary withdrawal of the mayor of another city, citing health reasons. These examples were all women, it turns out. And at a time all public officials face an increasing amount of threats and intimidation, women are often particularly targeted, it doesn't matter where they live.
In Mexico's presidential election front runner Claudia Sheinbaum says she was facing a flood of hate-filled messages after her phone number was leaked on social media. "What they want to do is obvious, once again their attacks are as crude as they are harmless," she said. Just north, the campaign of US Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley sought secret service protection after receiving a number of threats. "It's not going to stop me from doing what I need to do," Haley said defiantly after a campaign event.
It hasn't been a year since New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern quit her post after a period where she received numerous hate-filled and misogynistic messages. "Politicians are human," she said at the time. In the US, an attack at the home of then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which injured her husband, and threats against Michigan's governor, are among a series of attacks, notably against elected women, to have marked the divisive and tense political atmosphere leading to this year's elections.
In Europe a 2021 Finnish study of incidents targeting elected officials found many were facing "an elevated threat of abusive messages", mostly women. At the same the Nordic country was headed by Sanna Marin, then the youngest prime minister in the world, who headed a cabinet led by women and formed a coalition with other leaders who were also all women. Many among them were targeted by misogynistic abuse attacking their values, ridiculing their decision-making and questioning their ability to lead, the study found.
Studies have shown this sort of intimidation has discouraged women from joining politics in the first place, and shortened their careers when they tried. This is widespread. A few years ago a survey of female parliamentarians by the Inter-Parliamentary Union across 39 countries found "44 percent of surveyed women reported having received threats of death, rape, assault, or abduction. One fifth said they had been subjected to sexual violence."
In Canada according to the Privy Council Office the number of threats against federal ministers increased during the first years of the pandemic (2020-2), including 55 death threats made against the prime minister and 14 against his deputy minister, Chrystia Freeland, both of whom were caught in video footage fleeing turbulent protesters in the last years.
Twenty-six ministers received at least one reported death threat over this period, for a total of 110 in the period in a political environment charged up by divisions over vaccines and other sensitive issues often distorted by conspiracy theories on gun control and diversity "fueling violent extremist propaganda and incitement to violence". MPs and Senators have been equipped with mobile panic buttons as a result.
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HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
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How far will some countries go to track down their enemies? Israel isn't the only country that will go to the ends of the Earth to target perceived threats to the state. Foreign regimes, both friend and foe, have plotted attacks against people of interest who emigrated to North America with increasing boldness, according to multiple investigations.
One week after the RCMP staged a rare press conference to accuse Delhi of being behind the assassination of a Sikh activist in Canada, a senior Iranian military official was charged in an alleged plot to kill an Iranian-born American activist in the US. These are just the latest allegations after a series of cases of state-sponsored killings in the last years, some of which have grabbed international headlines, such as the poisoning of former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko in London and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkiye.
The new allegations have landed in North America and are now casting a new light on the investigations of previous killings. In February the US Department of Justice said it foiled four state-sponsored assassination attempts. One of them involved a Sikh activist, in an alleged murder for hire plot disrupted by the DEA. Charges were laid two months after Justin Trudeau publicly accused India of being behind the murder of a Sikh activist. Delhi denies the Canadian accusation and asked to see the evidence. Intelligence agencies have had their eyes on these sort of attacks for years.
"We face a rising threat from authoritarian regimes who seek to reach beyond their own borders to commit acts of repression, including inside the United States," stated the DOJ's Matthew Olsen two years ago. Some of the sponsors are considered rogue states, such as Russia and Iran. Brig. Gen. Ruhollah Bazghandi, a senior official in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and three other men were charged in a plot to kill Iranian-born US author and activist Masih Alinejad.
The targets or victims were often born in the countries seeking to silence them. Other regimes, such as Saudi Arabia and India, have complex relationships with Western countries whose citizens they are allegedly targeting, something that became obvious after Trudeau's and the RCMP's statements on India, sparking a diplomatic crisis, though impact on trade has not been felt. After the chill between Saudi Arabia and the US following the Khashoggi killing, relations have thawed.
Canada and India may take longer to return to the relationship they once shared, especially as previous murders are looked at in a new light. This includes the killing of a man who had been acquitted in the 1985 Air India bombing attributed to Sikh separatists. Known criminals Tanner Fox and Jose Lopez pleaded guilty to second-degree murder in the 2022 death, but the family of the victim is asking them to cooperate and reveal who hired them to carry out the hit.
Hiring criminals to carry out state-sponsored terrorism is one of the allegations the RCMP made as it launched a special unit to investigate multiple cases of extortion, coercion and violence, including murders, linked to agents of the Indian government. In the recent case of the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada police alleged diplomats collected information which they then passed on to criminals to carry out attacks. More recently Canada went further, accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of being behind a campaign of violence and intimidation targeting Sikh activists.
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L'OMBRE DE MOSCOU
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L'ombre de Moscou planait au-dessus des appels aux urnes aux frontières de l'Europe. Certes le vote référendaire sur l'adhésion à l'Union européenne est passé en Moldavie, ce petit état voisin de l'Ukraine dont une partie du territoire est semi-autonome et russophile, mais l'ingérence étrangère de Moscou a eu son impact: il est passé avec à peine plus de 50%, un résultat référendaire presque québécois.
La présidente Maia Sandu s'est empressée de dénoncer les «ingérences sordides» lors du vote, qui représente le premier d'un nombre de défis électoraux pour ce petit pays de 3 millions d'habitants. Cette «attaque sans précédent contre la démocratie» aurait selon elle été perpétrée par «des groupes criminels, agissant de concert avec des forces étrangères hostiles à nos intérêts nationaux, (qui) ont attaqué notre pays à coups de dizaines de millions d’euros, de mensonges et de propagande».
L'exercice aurait eu l'ambition d'acheter non moins de 300,000 votes, des institutions nationales ayant «documenté l'achat du vote de 150 000 personnes», un chiffre conséquent quant on considère l'écart qui a séparé les deux camps, à peine une douzaine de milliers de votes en tout.
La Géorgie pendant ce temps, elle aussi ébranlée par l'invasion de l'Ukraine, se livrait au même combat lors de sa campagne législative, même si la question de l'Europe n'a pas été posée aussi directement. Le vote avait lieu quelques mois après des mouvements de protestation contre la loi d'ingérence au goût très russe de l'oligarque influent Bidzina Ivanishvili. Ce dernier laissait entendre qu'un vote contre le parti qu'il a fondé, le Rêve géorgien, risquait la guerre dans ce pays déjà grignoté par son voisin russe, un peu à la manière de l'Ukraine.
Moldavie et Géorgie faisaient partie de l'URSS et abritent de fortes minoritiés russes sur des terres échappant paefois au contrôle du gouvernement central. Le parti au pouvoir fut donné vainqueur mais non sans la contestation de l'opposition qui dénonçait des "élections volées" et un "coup d'état constitutionnel" dans un pays où l'appui pour l'Europe est généralisé. Une enquête sur la "falsification présumée" du vote a été lancée.
Sandu pendant ce temps préparait déjà la ronde suivante en Moldavie, plus personnelle puisqu'elle devait lutter contre le candidat pro-russe Alexandru Stoianoglo au second tour de la présidentielle, quelques mois avant les législatives de l’été 2025, toutes sans aucun doute disputées sous influence. Celle-ci semblait avoir gagné son pari malgré une campagne marquée par plusieurs menaces.
S'il y a un pays de l'ancien bloc soviétique où les élections ne menaçaient pas de changer la donne il s'agit bien de la Lituanie, qui malgré son changement de cap - le pouvoir passant de la droite à la gauche - maintient son soutien indéfectible pour Kiev. Mais l'influence russe n'y a pas moins été ressentie.
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TRUMP RE-ELECTED
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Perhaps it was too much to change horse in mid-stream, perhaps the disgruntlement of Americans reeling from high prices and a sense of missing out on economic opportunities despite the generally performing economy, was too great. Maybe it was the thirst for change or perhaps America is still not ready for a female president.
In the end it didn't matter that Donald Trump had become a convicted felon, conducted a campaign high on hyperbole and merchandising and low on policy details, toyed with being a dictator on day 1 or using the army to crush dissent by political opponents, even executing them, praised Hitler, used profanity and made lewd remarks during rallies, slammed migrants for bringing in bad genes and vowed to launch mass deportations, all while suggesting Americans may no longer need to vote again after Nov. 5.
The 45th US president returned to the White House with a vengeance, something that we could be mistaken for not taking literally. Not only was he projected winner on election night scoring some 291 electors, whereas some were expecting a call days away, fearing long legal battles, but he also secured the popular vote and looked to win both houses to carry out his mandate in force, a Supreme Court already tucked into his corner, its abortion ruling not enough of a catalyst to galvanize the masses against the Republican candidate.
Those court cases against Trump would for the most part be dropped and the opposition left reeling after the new hopes that followed Kamala Harris' rise to headline the Democratic ticket, replacing an underperforming and weakened Joe Biden. The Democratic coalition failed to score where it mattered and in fact was less successful than Biden four years ago, while Trump bettered his own numbers, scoring "bigly" among Latinos, whom he had disparaged so often in the past. At least the clear result prevented the unpalatable post-election scenarios of 2020 or 2000 and voting day, despite the occasional bomb threats, was largely spared major disruptions.
The traditionally long campaign had been the most eventful in recent history, marked by a change of candidate in one camp and two assassination attempts in the other, and targeted by a campaign of influence from abroad targeting both camps. World leaders who had hoped not to relive the tensions of Trump's previous presidency, the threats to NATO, trade renegotiations and anti-immigrant policies, were left putting on a crooked smile, congratulating him for winning four more years, a rare feat after the interruption of the Biden years too many Americans decided were just not good enough to leave the Democrats in power.
Now they had to brace for measures at a critical junction in big power history, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle-East, disputes the president-elect promised to settle soon into his administration, for bad or for worse. They had to brace for possible new trade tariffs, especially Three Amigo partner Mexico, which Trump said would face massive tariffs if it could not prevent migrants from heading to the US border, despite its recent efforts on the issue. How, some wondered abroad as well as in many parts of the US who had been so anxiously anticipating the results, could n.45 be given another chance?
Perhaps it was a case of, in the words of a bumbling predecessor: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me (twice)... you're can't get fooled again." No amount of celebrity power, Taylor Swift be damned, were a match of Elon Musk it seemed, or able to prevent a stunning political comeback, sweeping most of the battleground states. "We achieved the most incredible political thing," Trump declared in his victory speech. "This will forever be remembered as the day the American people regained control of their country," vowing to close the border among other measures he now faces less opposition to carry out than eight years ago, and this time, perhaps, with a mind set on revenge. Or was this much for show?
The vitriol certainly seemed real, as well as plans to purge the civil service so it is filled with loyalists and yes men. This all seemed far removed from Kamala's hopes to "end the drama" in Washington. Unlike Trump four years ago, Harris, conceded the election hours after her rival was projected winner and promised a smooth and peaceful transition.
"The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for, but hear me when I say, the light of America's promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting," she said before tearful supporters. "While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign," While supporters hoped neck and neck polls during the campaign would hatch a secretive pro-Kamala female vote, it was the Trump support which defied expectations.
Despite a promising start, Harris failed to close the deal or distance herself enough from her unpopular president, observers say. "After a remarkable start to her campaign, Harris failed to close the deal rhetorically. In an unfortunate echo of Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, Harris spent far too much time trying to argue that Trump was unfit for the presidency and too little time delivering a coherent message about why she would be better," argued commentator Michael Hirsh in Foreign Policy. "Despite overpowering Trump in their only debate on Sept. 10 and raising more than $1 billion in donations in just three months—a new record—Harris often floundered when challenged to deliver a convincing summary of her agenda on critical issues such as the economy and immigration." Trump's election may have sent shock waves in a number of circles, it also sent stocks soaring.
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IN NEED OF A FIX
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After torrential rains provoking devastating floods from Eastern Spain to the Balkans in Europe as well as parts of Africa, the Americas and Asia, leaders at COP 29 were under no illusion they had to redouble their efforts to fight climate change after another record-setting year.
Even the Taleban, although not recognized by all participants, found the issue pressing enough to send representatives to a climate conference for the first time, seeking help developing mitigation and adaptation efforts. According to experts, this is no surprise as Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to global warming. "Climate change has resulted in higher temperatures, which reduce water sources and cause droughts," told AP Hayatullah Mashwani of Kabul University. "The reduction in water availa-bility and frequent droughts pose severe threats to agriculture, leading to food insecurity and challenges to livelihoods."
According to Save the Children the country is ranked the sixth most vulnerable country in the world with 25 of 34 provinces facing severe droughts. Nearby Pakistan was notably struck by devastating floods and extreme heat this year, hardly recovering from similar events two years ago. The repetition of such disasters and their worsening intensity is having an impact on children's mental health according to a study by the World Economic Forum this summer.
"The economic and physical health impacts of climate change are clear, Pakistan’s population is also experiencing the often overlooked mental health ramifications," the report stated. "The devastating fallout from the floods and extreme heat have stoked a sense of climate anxiety or 'eco-anxiety' in locals, a term popularly used to convey despairing sentiments around the climate crisis."
In Africa extreme heat has also made it unbearable to attend class for some children, hampering education for future generations, one that is so crucial to ensure the continent's future develop-ment and posperity. While expectations were high at the conference, some looked on with unease at the incoming US administration, more likely to abandon green measures while espousing drilling policies. The current White House meanwhile tried to reassure participants the fight against the climate crisis is bigger than any election result, but not everyone is convinced.
The US has been battered by hurricanes, tornadoes and flooding this season and wildfires scorched parts of California and New York state as the conference was starting. But a number of world leaders in fact decided to give the summit a miss, notably those of top polluters including the US, India and China. But Britain's new prime minister said he was looking forward to meeting new ambitious targets to tackle climate change. "Acts on climate now is the route towards economic growth, energy security, better jobs, and national security in the long term to deliver on the Paris agreement," he said.
The choice of venue for COP29 once more raised some eyebrows. Baku, like Dubai last year, belongs to a major oil power, sparking criticism the outcome would yield little despite rising emergencies on every continent. In fact Azerbaijani officials were using the gathering to discuss potential oil and gas deals according to the BBC, quite remote from the stated goal of negotiating compensation for impacts of climate change to poorer countries. Meanwhile oil company Shell won an appeal against a landmark ruling that required it to accelerate carbon reduction efforts. Former US vice-president and longtime climate campaigner Al Gore said the yearly gathering had to be reformed.
"I think it's absurd to have, for example, what we had last year with the CEO of one of the dirtiest oil companies on the planet serving as the president of the COP," he told EuroNews. "It's a direct conflict of interest," calling this year's host "in synch with this country's reliance on fossil fuels." He proposed that the UN's secretary general pick the venue of future summits and said relying on technology to solve the climate crisis only played into the hands of oil and gas interests, singling out carbon capture and storage meant to store away CO2 underground.
"They've been proven to be completely ridiculous and totally ineffective," he said. "Of course the fossil fuel companies want to pretend that that's the solution - anything other than reducing the amount of fossil fuels that are burned or reducing their markets." Yet, as the Economist pointed out, technology remains and "has always been a vital part of the fight to regain control over the climate" and renewables get cheaper every year.
But Gore is hardly the sole critic of the summit. More than 20 experts signed a letter saying the COP wasn't working and in need an overhaul. COP's "current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity," they wrote.
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UN NOUVEAU MODÈLE?
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L'aveu d'une défaite cinglante, la félicitation du nouveau vainqueur et la promesse d'une transition pacifique, voilà tous les éléments d'une conclusion électorate saine, signes de stabilité démocratique. Mais alors que le monde avait les yeux rivés sur l'élection américaine plusieurs ont raté la transition exemplaire au Botswana, exemple pour le continent africain mais pour le reste de la planête également.
L'élection du mois dernier était d'autant plus notable qu'elle confirmait l'alternance pour la première fois après 60 ans d'indépendance. A l'époque Duma Boko, un avocat quinquagénaire des droits humains éduqué à Harvard, n'était pas encore au monde.
En remportant 31 des 60 sièges sa coalition de gauche Umbrella for Democratic Change délogeait pour la première fois le parti au pouvoir depuis la rupture avec la couronne britannique. Et comment a réagi le dirigeant sortant Mokgweetsi Masisi? Presque avec enthousiasme: «Je veux féliciter l’opposition pour sa victoire. Nous avons eu tout faux aux yeux du peuple,» dit-il en s'engageant à faciliter la transition.
« Nous sommes tout à fait heureux de nous retirer pour devenir une opposition loyale qui demande des comptes au gouver-nement».
Il faut dire que l'état de l'économie, qui dépend notamment du diamant et du tourisme, et la corruption ont finalement eu raison du Parti démocratique du Botswana, mais le résultat n'a pas moins causé la surprise. Le signal était-il envoyé au voisin sud-africain dont le gouvernement au pouvoir depuis la fin de l'apartheid maintient sa place malgré sa cote de popularité glissante? Ce signal pourrait aussi bien traverser l'océan pour effectuer un rappel à l'administration entrante à Washington.
Reconnaissant l'«immense responsabilité» qui lui a été confiée avec «humilité », Boko a salué la «transition démocratique réussie, pacifique et ordonnée» de ce petit pays du sud du continent de 2,6 million d'âmes regroupant la plus importante population d’éléphants au monde.
Le chômage (27 %), notamment chez les jeunes, figurait au haut des préoccupations dans ce pays qui, comme son voisin, connait d'importantes inégalités. Mais la démocratie elle, se porte plutôt bien. Alors que la baisse de popularité du parti au pouvoir avait été ressentie depuis plusieurs années, sa chute a surpris plusieurs observateurs.
Un telle « probabilité semblait très faible», selon l’économiste Keith Jefferies, se livrant à l'AFP. On aurait ainsi assisté à « un raz-de-marée d’électeurs qui ont changé d’allégeance ». Une bouffée de fraicheur alors que le monde tombe dans une humeur plutôt sombre après l'éclat américain et la montée des extrémismes et des puissances autoritaires. Le salut viendrait-il de ce coin Afrique?
DEFENDING DEMOCRACIES
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As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the defenders urge supporters and suppliers not to abandon them, reiterating their struggle is the free world's, and democracy's battle against the darkness of authori-tarianism. Sadly, in a year of continuing war in Eastern Europe and conflict in the Middle East, an increasing share of the world is living under some form of authoritarianism according to both Freedom House and this year' Economist Democracy Index.
For the latter, this means just under 40%, while barely 45% of the planet lives under some form of democracy, and this includes only 7.8% of some 167 surveyed countries that are full democracies. The last year has brought the global democracy index further down, in fact to its lowest level since it was created in 2006, "suggesting authori-tarian regimes are becoming more entrenched and hybrid regimes are struggling to democratise."
The biggest damage, by this account, has been in the Middle East and North Africa, with the flare-ups in Sudan and Gaza, certainly, but also in the Caribbean and Latin America, in regions consumed by internal wars of sorts with gangs and criminality. This ensured El Salvador's increasingly autocratic leadership a sure win in this year's elections, with others looking to emulate Bukele's strong-armed formula to tame drug gangs.
The punishing method, criticized by human rights groups, has certainly dipped the level of violence in what was one of the world's most terrifying countries, but not without weakening further the state of democracy there. "His total control of government institutions means that opposition parties have little chance of challenging his re-election," the Economist Intelligence Unit's report notes. "Political reforms passed in June to reduce the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly and the number of municipalities will further constrain the chances of opposition parties to gain power," while media freedoms come under attack.
The Freedom House report downgraded Ecuador from free to partly free due to the rising gang-related violence. In that annual report political rights and civil liberties were down in 52 countries and only 21 countries improved their situation. But as co-author Yana Gorokhovskaia notes: "Even if you look at it region by region, usually we are able to say that one is an outlier, but every single region registered a decline.
The deterioration is pretty widespread." The report denounced efforts by incumbents "to control electoral competition, hinder their political opponents or prevent them from taking power" in countries including Cambodia, Turkey and Zimbabwe and -- unsuccessfully -- in Guatemala and Poland." There were however some bright spots as Thailand went from not free to partly free after relatively competitive elections, even if the regime prevented a young progressive whose party won the most seats from becoming prime minister.
"This isn't, I would say, a full-scale victory for democracy or freedom and Thailand," nuanced Gorokhovskaia. The biggest improvement? Tiny Fiji after 2022 elections which ousted longtime ruler Frank Bainimarama, who had taken over in a coup in 2006. Since then Freedom House has noted marked progress including reduced censorship and laws to improve women's participation.
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ÉCLAIRCIR LE MYSTÈRE
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Du haut de l'aéronef qui se dirige vers Malaga la vue a les délices d'une destination de choix. La mer, les yachts étincelants, une ville vibrante et grouillante de trésors andalous, et une crête de montagnes couronnée d'éoliennes pour alimenter toutes ces surprises. Mais ces derniers temps, tel Don Quichotte s'élançant vers ces géants modernes, le doute s'installe sur le virage vert qui a fait de l'Espagne, et son sud en particulier, un modèle pour le continent et cette planête surchauffée.
La panne générale qui a frappé l'Espagne et le Portugal en avril a remis en cause la transition énergétique qui a vu l'état espagnol délaisser les fossiles pour le renouvelable. Après l'arrivée d'une administration américaine pro-pétrole, le retrait des grandes banques des objectifs verts, et le rejet de l'électrique sur roues de Tesla, c'est une orientation phare du 21e siècle qui est remise en cause.
Ce virage vert a-t-il causé la panne qui a plongé des millions de citoyens dans le noir, immobilisant le réseau des transports en commun peu de temps après le jour de cette terre qu'il doit sauver, laissant le gasole voler au secours des citoyens laissés à leur sort? Alors que les autorités se bornent à dire qu'il n'en était pas la cause, celle-ci n'est toujours pas encore clairement établie.
Ca commence à faire beaucoup au long de cette côte déjà frappée par les inondations meurtrières de décembre à Valence, modèle environnemental décoré, où certains avaient, à tort ou à raison, pointé du doigt le virage vert du centre de la ville... possiblement au détriment de banlieues plus durement frappées par le désastre.
Les accusations, qui fusent des partis de l'opposition en Espagne seraient plus faciles à ignorer si un avertissement n'avait pas été émis dans un rapport soulignant le risque de ce genre de dénouement. La maison mère du gestionnaire du réseau électrique avait mis en garde "la forte pénétration de la production renouvelable sans les capacités techniques nécessaires à un comportement adéquat face aux perturbations."
Voilà qui pouvait éventuel-lement "provoquer des coupures de production... allant jusqu'à entrainer un deséquilibre entre la production et la demande, ce qui affecterait significativement l'approvi-sionnement en électricité." Une demande déjà taxée alors qu'on entre dans la période chaude. L'an dernier près de 40% de l'électricité était redevable à l'éolien ou au solaire, un bond ces dernières années, doublant ce que l'on pouvait observer la décennie précédente, et le double du nucléaire.
Ce secteur est en chute puisqu'il doit disparaitre d'ici dix ans en Espagne. Pourtant la présidente du gestionnaire, Beatriz Corredor, maintient que "relier l'incident si grâve à une pénétration des renouvelables n'est pas vrai, ce n'est pas correct." Cette semaine encore le gouvernement écartait les défaillances de couverture, de réserve ou d'infrastructure.
Mais sans véritable explication de l'incident, qui ne serait pas lié à un cas exceptionnel de cyberattaque non plus, la speculation va bon train et fourbit des armes aux sceptiques. La disparition de 15 gigawatts en quelques secondes lors de la panne pourrait être reliée à une chaine d'incidents, affectant un site de production solaire. Rien pour rassurer les sceptiques après la plus importante panne du genre dans l'histoire du réseau électrique européeen.
​THE FIGHT WITHOUT END
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There was a sense of suffocating deja vu as military planes unloaded evacuees from Northern regions of Canada while the smoke of wildfires billowed all the way to the southern US and even Europe. Demand for water bombers skyrocketed while calls increased for a dedicated wildfire fighting force across the country of over nine million square kilometres where all provinces save the smallest one are already dealing with scorched forests and destroyed homes early in the season.
Provinces struggled to accommodate a new flow of refugees, the growing victims of the climate, including Native communities which had deplored lack of resources to fight the fires, and even lack of water, any water, potable or not, able to help douse the flames. After a winter season during which Canada had sent water bombers fight the flames in California, US and other foreign fire fighters were assisting in what is becoming an annual battle, often sadly futile, to save isolated communities.
But some of them, like Flin Flon, Manitoba, were rather large, sparking fears of a repeat of recent disasters in Fort Mac and Jasper, still shadows of their former selves as the Great White North became engulfed in another season of charred forests and structures, from British Columbia to Newfoundland. With most evacuees coming from northern regions of Western Canada, hotels quickly filled up in Manitoba and Alberta, forcing some evacuees to be sent as far as Niagara Falls, leaving them to wake up, ironically, to views of a torrent of water. There was some reluctance to come this far away from their homes, but with the exhaustion and stress of the experience, some evacuees started regaining their senses and sanity after their arrival, according to evacuation coordinator Sheena Garrick.
"As soon as they started arriving here they're at ease. They're comfortable, they're well rested, they're fed." Some of these communities, such as Cornwall, had earlier served to house asylum seekers from abroad desperate for housing after their arrival in Canada. Many wildfire evacuees had to drive hours on isolated roads licked by flames to make it to safety only to find cramped cots and few resources in already overrun regions of Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Premier Wab Kinew defended evacuation efforts sending some far away from home.
"We want everyone to come home when it is safe for them to do so," he told CBC, pointing out evacuees from Northern Ontario had also gone to Manitoba for safety earlier in what is an increasingly early wildfire season. "So I think all of us are just trying to respond to this situation," but making it harder this time across the country is there are fires "everywhere at once." Kinew wasn't just struggling to house and support evacuees, he also had a number of firefights on his hands and the lack of water bombers isn't something that could domestically be changed any time soon.
The province has put down $80 million on three new water bombers that will probably not be delivered before 2031. "We're in this challenge having to respond during an emergency situation by pulling pieces that we have at our disposal." The company now building the water scoopers made famous the world over is based out of Calgary with orders primarily going to the international market, ironically, as foreign fire fighters come into Canada to support the fight. Ontario has also placed orders for the bombers. Amid so many international priorities and the current trade war, fire chiefs have renewed calls for a genuine national strategy to deal with what are reoccurring and multiplying natural disasters. In the mean time small specialized search and rescue teams have been key helping people getting out of areas only accessible by air.
"The smoke was so thick at times , it was black inside the helicopter" told CTV Bryan Preston of Manitoba Search and Rescue. He is part of Task Force 4, one of only six heavy urban rescue task forces of the sort in the country, skilled for large scale collapse structure rescues. Communication has been an issue in remote communities, making the assistance of the Canadian Armed Forces critical. While some evacuees were able to return home in some regions of Alberta, other regions of the province faced new evacuation orders. The county of Grande Prairie issued an evacuation order as the wildfire there crossed into BC.
New emergencies also developed in Squamish and Northwest Ontario's Sandy Lake Nation. Some Native communities expressed concern about the lack of assets to fight the flames. In some instances, they said, the smoke was too heavy to operate water bombers, and the fires had to be mainly battled on the ground. But lack of equipment such as hoses impeded the fight. Lack of resources or potable - sometimes any - water, is not a new problem in the North. Earlier this year the Quebec Native community of Puvirnituq lost all water after the rupture of a main line, hampering efforts to put out a house fire.
The wildfires were doing more than disrupting communities, they were destroying historical artifacts in Native communities, such as a trading post in La Ronge, Sask. In that province two people were charged with starting fires and officials were investigating the suspicious nature of other fires. The reoccurring wildfires and intensity this early in the season is renewing calls for Canada to create an agency the current US administration has ironically been cutting at home, a Canadian version of FEMA to coordinate response to natural disasters. “There needs to be something in place so that when we have fires throughout Canada, we have the ability to react quickly and move resources where they are required,” said MP Randy Hoback. And projections for the summer, and future summers, are of warmer than usual temperatures.​
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RAS-LE-BOL
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Après cinq mois de Trump, des millions d'Américains, manifestant dans de nombreuses villes du pays contre l'enfant roi étaient à se demander si le rythme effréné des crises et des bouleversements allait durer toute la longueur du second mandat du président. Après les coupures budgétaires sauvages, la guerre tarifaire et les rapts de déportations, tous multipliant les cas présentés devant les tribunaux, les éclats lors des manifestations à Los Angeles, puis ailleurs au pays, ont forcé la sortie hautement publique de l'homme présenté comme potentiel candidat à la présidence dans trois ans à un moment où l'opposition est encore sous le choc.
Après des jours d'escarmouches sous forme d'interviews télévisés et de déclarations sur les médias sociaux, le gouverneur californien Gavin Newsom s'emparait des ondes pour condamner l'immixion fédérale dans la gestion des manifestations de son état, notamment l'envoi de troupes militaires, dans une intervention télévisée qui allait bien au-delà de la crise évoluant sous son nez et qui avait toutes les allures d'un lancement de campagne.
"Il est grand temps de se tenir debout" contre Trump, lança-t-il, d'adressant pendant près de neuf minutes non seulement aux Californiens ou citoyens de la mégalopole de l'ouest, mais au peuple américain tout entier, avec un texte intitulé "la démocratie à la croisée des chemins". "Trump ne protège pas les communautés, il les traumatise, fustige l'homme de 57 ans. Les régimes autoritaires débutent en ciblant les personnes les moins aptes à se défendre, mais ils n'arrêtent pas là."
Il n'hésite pas de souligner que Trump ne s'oppose pas vraiment à la violence, soulignant ses encouragements lorsque ses supporters ont pris d'assaut le Capitole à Washington en janvier 2021. "Je veux que tout le monde prenne le temps de réfléchir à ce moment périlleux," ajoute Newsom, dénonçant "un président qui ne veut être limité pas aucune loi ou constitution," et s'acharne sur les traditions américaines en renvoyant les chiens de garde du gouvernment, déclarant la guerre aux "sciences et à la connaissance elle-même", en s'attaquant aux médias, tout en retirant le financement des universités, en visant le judiciaire qui représente sa seule entrave, et en faisant appel à l'arrestation d'un gouverneur, en l'occurence lui-même "pour la seule raison - reprenant ses propres mots - qu'il a été élu." Le défilé militaire prévu le jour de l'anniversaire de Trump est de la trempe "des dictateurs déchus du passé," ajoute-t-il.
En peu de temps les manifestations s'étendent dans plusieurs villes du pays, de New York à San Francisco en passant par le Texas, où le gouverneur n'hésite pas à faire appel à la garde nationale, étant de la même couleur que le président. Or ces gestes militaires, dont le symbole a été le plus fort lors du défilé marquant le 250e anniversaire des forces armées , ne font que gonfler la grogne, qui augmente et rappelle les manifestations qui avaient accueilli les interdictions de séjour de voyageurs de pays musulmans aux premières heures du mandat précédent.
Or perdu dans ce fracas: le retour de nouvelles interdictions touchant une douzaine de pays, terres des demandeurs d'asile les plus désespérés, d'Afghanistan, où tant d'interprètes avaient rendu les missions des GIs possibles, en Haïti, pays plongé dans la crise dont les ressortissants avaient fait l'objet de toutes les insultes. La statue de la liberté ne pouvait que pleurer sur son pédestal. Pas étonnant qu'un politicien français ait fait appel à son retour en France. Cette semaine c'était à l'ancien président Obama de faire une rare sortie, avec un appel au sacrifice de la résistance alors que le climat politique prend aux Etats-Unis de plus en plus l'allure d'une "autocratie".
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LOSING SUPPORT
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As Gaza recovered from the latest devastating Israeli bombing run and the IDF readied to expand military operations, some of the Jewish state's allies signalled a dramatic shift in their stance on the ongoing conflict, stop the offensive or face sanctions they warned. It was unheard of language from France, the UK and Canada, staunch supporters of Israel's right to exist and defend itself but determined to drive the message that its military actions had become disproportionate.
The mood has been darkening between Israel and its allies. Quickly followed Britain's decision to bring home its ambassador and suspending trade talks with Israel. The EU's foreign policy chief also asked for a review of EU-Israel agreements governing political and economic ties. Ireland meanwhile drafted a bill to ban the import of goods from Israeli settlements considered illegal under international law. This followed the International Court of Justice's statement the occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip was illegal.
But all this hardly deterred Israel from announcing its largest expansion in the West Bank in decades, with plans to develop 22 settlements. The region it seemed was being plunged decades into the past. Israelis polled were divided on the expansion of military operations that have devastated Palestinian lands and thrown the region into chaos. The humanitarian situation in the strip once home to 2 million people has become beyond dire. The UN warned some 48,000 children were facing immediate threats to their lives as conditions worsened amid an Israeli blockade, and the world body and others condemned the organization of aid delivery by a controversial US-Israeli organization after some were killed and dozens were hurt when a crowd of starving citizens overwhelmed a distribution centre.
More recently dozens were killed trying to reach the hub. Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be improvements in the distribution but stressed that Hamas was being denied the ability to use humanitarian aid as a weapon. Some NGOs said the new arrangement wasn't feasible. "Forcing a population to travel 25 kilometres to collect a food parcel under fire, are those the humanitarian conditions we want in Gaza?" questioned Antoine Renard of the World Food Programme. International Criminal Court prosecutors urged judges to reject a request by Israel to scrap arrest warrants targeting Netanyahu and his former defense minister saying there was "a reason to believe" they used "starvation as a method of warfare" by limiting humanitarian aid and targeting civilians in Gaza.
In recent days continued strikes on the territory killed dozens, including 55 on the day Netanyahu called the letter by the three countries a "huge prize" for Hamas. Days later Israel issued a travel advisory warning its citizens of growing threats for terrorist elements" in Canada. The Israeli leader reiterated his government would continue the offensive until the threat of Hamas is eradicated, vowing to take control of the strip it once relinquished. Israel also reiterated its demand for the release of the remaining hostages captured in the October 2022 attack which triggered its armed response.
But in addition to striking Gaza Israel has also turned its sights on the West Bank, where relations were only complicated when a diplomatic incident ensued after IDF troops fired warning shots near foreign officials visiting Jenin's refugee camp. Paris soon summoned its Israeli ambassador as condemnation rose from a number of European capitals and Ottawa, as four of the diplomats were Canadian. Prime Minister Mark Carney called the incident "totally unacceptable" among "many things totally unacceptable going on in the region." Israel further asserted its authority in the West Bank when Arab ministers were prevented from gathering in Ramallah for a meeting on the recognition of a Palestinian state.
The US did not echo the condemnation of the diplomatic incident or the three G7 countries' statement, but some noted possible distancing by president Donald Trump during his visit to the Middle East, which did not include a stop in Israel. The continuing war, which passed its 600th day, loomed behind violent incidents overseas as well after a Palestinian militant killed two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington. Netanyahu ordered Israeli missions around the world to ramp up security after the incident. The suspect was held in custody after reportedly yelling "Free Palestine" following the attack. “We are witness to the terrible cost of the antisemitism and wild incitement against the State of Israel,” Netanyahu said in a statement.
Days later police arrested a US citizens who plotted to attack the US embassy in Tel Aviv with Molotov cocktails and who according to reports threatened the life of the US president. Less than a week after the DC incident, a man was arrested on terror charges in Colorado after attacking participants of a protest calling for the release of the war's hostages. Protests have been rising from within Israel as well about the decision to re-occupy Gaza, which had been relinquished in 2005.
Amid the street demonstrations in Israeli cities former prime minister Ehud Olmert said "what we are doing in Gaza is close to being a war crime." Former military official and current political leader Yair Golan warned "Israel will become a pariah state, as South Africa has been, if we do not conduct ourselves as a sane state. A sane country does not wage war against civilians, does not kill babies as a pastime, and does not engage in mass population displacement.” Israel certainly seemed to become a growing stranger among its traditional allies.
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VOTES A RÉPÉTITION
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Ces élections a répétition, ce cauchemar de gouver-nements minoritaires éphémères et cette instabilité, c'est un portrait politique que le sud européen connait bien, mais il ne s'agit plus des boufonneries de la botte méditerranéenne mais d'un pays plutôt orienté sur le large atlantique.
En effet le Portugal a de nouveau été appelé aux urnes fin mai, son troisième scrutin national en autant d'années, et le résultat n'a pas vraiment changé la donne. Comme l'an dernier l’Alliance démocratique de centre droite l'a emporté mais sans laisser au premier ministre Luis Montenegro les sièges nécessaires afin d'obtenir la majorité malgré le gain de quelques sièges. Il fit par conséquent appel à la «responsabilité» des autres partis et à leur «sens de l’État» afin de le «laisser travailler».
Mais l'heure est grâve au pays 50 ans après les premières élections démocratiques qui ont suivi la dictature. C'est le fractionnement du vote ces dernières années qui rend la majorité si difficile à obtenir, notamment en raison de la montée de l'extrême droite, arrivée deuxième avec 22% des voix et remportant notamment deux des quatre circonscriptions de 'étranger. Mais l'avocat de 52 ans reporté au pouvoir refuse encore et toujours de gouverner avec les extrêmes du Chega, qui signifie "assez".
Il espérait plutôt obtenir le soutien de l'initiative libérale, qui n'a obtenu que 5% des voix. Pari perdu, mais c'est la gauche qui a été la grande perdante, le parti socialiste, avec 22% des votes, arrivant troisième avec deux sièges de moins que les 60 d'André Ventura, un ancien commentateur de football.
Le secrétaire général du PS Pedro Nuno Santos, dont le parti a perdu presque la moitié de ses sièges en trois ans, a rendu sa démission tandis que Ventura a déclaré haut et fort «la fin d’un système politique vieux de 50 ans où l’alternance n’était pas possible». Il s'agit en effet, depuis la révolution des oeillets, de la première fois que centre gauche et centre droit ne disposent plus de la majorité des deux tiers.
L'ancien ministre socialiste de la défense António Vitorino estime qu'a eu lieu au Portugal une « altération structurelle du système » avec cette élection qui pour d'autres a des allures de tremblement de terre. Pour Ventura l'élection marque «un changement profond du système politique portu-guais».
On est loin des débuts de ce parti qui déclarait vouloir "sauver le Portugal" en 2019, lorsqu'il n'a remporté qu'un siège. Montenegro a ignoré les appels du Chega de se plonger dans des réformes constitutionnelles, préférant se concentrer sur l'économique, les services publics et la santé. Pour l'heure, Ventura s'engage à ne pas immédiatement tenter de faire tomber le gouvernement, ce qui serait s'attirer la foudre d'un public las de l'appel aux urnes.
Les élections de mai ont été déclenchées à la suite d'un vote de confiance à propos des épineuses questions d'une commission parlementaire étudiant à la loupe les activités d'une société de conseil enregistrée chez Montenegro au nom de ses enfants. Celui-ci a rejetté les accusations de "mêler politique et affaires".
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CORDON SANITAIRE
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Avec cette montée des extrêmes trumpistes au Portugal et en Roumanie et le nouveau siège du parti Reform UK de Nigel Farage en Grande-bretagne, l'euroscepticisme semblait avoir le vent dans les voiles sur le vieux continent cinq ans après le choc du Brexit.
Quelques mois après l'annulation du vote présidentiel qui avait donné un inconnu d'extrême droite vainqueur à Bucarest, les électeurs semblaient favoriser George Simion dans les sondages, un jeune candidat d'extrême droite claironnant haut et fort "Make Romania Great Again" qui a promis de sabrer les soutiens à l'Ukraine. Mais pourtant le soir du vote, c'est le centriste pro-européen Nicusor Dan, maire de Bucarest, qui a remporté la présidentielle avec 54% des voix, faisant oublier ses chiffres médiocres du premier tour.
"Les élections d'aujourd'hui ont vu la victoire d'une communauté de Roumains qui souhaitent un changement profond en Roumanie, déclare l'homme de 55 ans le soir du vote. Une communauté qui veut que les institutions de l'état fonctionnent, une commu-nauté qui veut réduire la corruption, une communauté qui veut un environnement économique prospère pour les Roumains... une société de dialogue et non une société de haine."
Malgré des résultats concluants, Simion a sorti la carte trumpiste en revendiquant sa propre victoire le soir du vote tout en parlant d'un décompte parallèle de son parti qui dénicherait "toute fraude potentielle". En fin de compte il fit appel à l'annulation du vote par la cour constitutionnelle. Cette dernière cependant valida l'élection de Dan. Le scrutin de l'automne avait été annulé par le haut tribunal pour cause d'ingérence russe.
Simion insinua que la France et la Moldavie en avaient fait autant lors du dernier vote. Ce dernier s'était engagé à sabrer l'appui à l'Ukraine, risquant de mettre le pays de 19 millions d'habitants dans le camp de Viktor Orban. Soulagement à Kiev et Bruxelles, qui a accueilli un résultat qui a "choisi la promesse d'une Roumanie ouverte et prospère dans une Europe forte."
L'Union a également plutôt bien accueilli le résultat de première ronde de l'élection polonaise qui mettait en tête le candidat pro-européen Rafal Trzaskowski avec 31% des intentions de vote, même s'il ne devançait le nationaliste Karol Nawrocki que par un seul point et que la leçon du vote roumain rappellait que le premier tour n'est pas toujours le reflet du résultat final. D'autant plus que les candidats de la droite dure ont plutôt bien fait.
Alors que Nawrocki, soutenu par le parti Droit et Justice (PiS, conservateur) du président sortant, a obtenu près de 30% des suffrages, le député libertarien Slawomir Mentzen et l’eurodéputé antisémite Grzegorz Braun ont également obtenu ensemble près de 22 % des voix. Le cordon sanitaire contre les extrêmes tiendrait-t-il longtemps?
Le soir du second tour la lutte restait serrée, Trzaskowski se déclarant vainqueur en un premier temps, mais les chiffres finaux donnèrent l'élection à son opposant, qui avec son véto pourra tenir le premier ministre Donald Tusk en échec au long des prochains mois. Mais certains craignent que l'animosité entre les deux partis ne pousse les électeurs vers les partis extrémistes dans l'avenir.
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DEPORTEES INC.
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What do Papua New Guinea, Rwanda and El Salvador - sharing no borders and nowhere near each other - have in common? A will to take in other countries' deportees for money, a debate which has upset many human rights advocates, especially when the United Kingdom. considered deporting some of its unwanted guests to the African nation. In 2023 however Britain's Supreme Court ruled the agreement unconstitutional.
The incoming Labour govern-ment slammed the deal as a terrible waste of taxpayer funds after nearly 300 million pounds were paid to Kigali for, in the end, zero flights to Rwanda. That didn't stop the practice elsewhere and certainly didn't discourage the U.S., with the White House's emphasis on deportations, from reaching deals with El Salvador and other countries in what is becoming a global industry of forced displacements. The U.S. also has an agreement with Guatemala, and Mexico usually houses asylum seekers waiting for their hearings in the U.S.
More recently Kosovo, a staunch US ally which largely owes its independence to Washington, announced it too would welcome deportees from the U.S. Now that the U.S. Supreme Court has allowed deportations to third countries, Washington is asking dozens of countries to take them in, including some at war or who commit torture. What the U.S. is doing isn't new. At the other end of the world Australia had set up the Manus island detention centre in Papua New Guinea for years to detain asylum seekers intercepted on the high seas, drawing global condemnation after reports of violence and lack of health services and sanitation surfaced. The detention centre closed in 2016 after a ruling from Australia's high court, but other facilities were built on the same island, housing many of the same detainees.
A decade ago Israel deported some African asylum seekers to Rwanda and Uganda under controversial secret agreements. Denmark, which has toughened its stance on immigration, also for some time considered a similar deal with Rwanda. It later also considered outsourcing prisoners to Kosovo in a 200M euro controversial deal which some consider a possible model for Europe. Italy which receives a large number of migrants annually seeking to travel from North Africa to Europe, recently started sending asylum seekers awaiting processing to a facility in Albania.
The first case became an expensive operation however after a citizen of Bangladesh was sent to the Gjader facility in northern Albania only to be later returned to Italy before being flown back to Bangladesh, showing the costs associated with these enterprises. Sometimes reaching deals to export deportees included arm twisting, the U.S. reportedly considering an extended travel ban for a number of countries unless they accept third country nationals.
The U.S. has exported its undesirables for years, highlighted by the controversy surrounding extraordinary rendition during the Bush years and the existence of Guantanamo Bay, a facility also being used by the current administration to house detainees. The base was the home of a number of terrorists, including 9-11 detainees. Of course the tradition of sending prisoners to foreign, even far flung lands, can be found throughout history, having, ironically, led to the development of Australia itself.
At roughly the same time France sent many of its prisoners to its colony in Guyana. Whether they are deported for hard crimes or simply seeking asylum, the treatment reserved for detainees can vary little. Rwanda has notably been accused of human rights abuses on its detainees, a treatment familiar to those sent to Manus island, shipped there by a country founded with the creation of a penal colony.
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TIGHTENED BORDERS
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Historic indeed was the agreement to remove border controls between Spain and Gibraltar in the south of the old continent. Not just because the British territory lies outside the European Union, but because trends have gone in the opposite direction across the continent lately, leading to tightened borders, new checks and controls, not fewer.
While countries recently marked the 30th anniversary of the borders-opening Schengen agreement in the Luxembourg village of the same name, it faces new challenges in the face of anti-terror measures and rising anti-immigration sentiment across the zone's 29 nations. Germany's interior minister was notably absent at the commemoration, his country having slapped new controls at the Polish border two years ago, impeding the traffic of the many Poles working in Germany.
Warsaw soon slapped its own controls, turning its attention West after having focused on the Belarus border to the East amid campaigns by Minsk to use migrants at a weapon. Now nearly a dozen countries conduct some sort of checks in the Schengen zone that introduced care-free cross-border driving for years. Among them France, which was one of the original five, but also Sweden, Italy, Austria and Belgium, whose immigration minister Anneleen Van Bossuyt recently declared: "Our message is clear, Belgium will not tolerate illegal immigration and immigration shopping by asylum seekers."
All this may be spreading some confusion as Romania and Bulgaria joined as new Schengen members earlier this year. Ten years after the wave of Syrian refugees which crossed continental borders heading north, in time wearing down the European welcome toward immigrants, terrorism and security are also being mentioned as reasons for raising the barriers once more. In 2016 a Tunisian national who had committed a terror attack against a Christmas market in Germany was only neutralized later in Italy after crossing four borders.
The authors of the Bataclan and Charlie Hebdo attacks had also sought refuge outside the country they had bloodied. A number of observers are now fearing the possible domino effect of recent decisions to tighten the borders. This week the German interior minister who had been absent for the commemoration invited European colleagues to a border summit where they agreed to tighten asylum rules.
The German chancellor has also called for a strategic alliance between his country, France and the UK on illegal immigration as well as defense. Earlier the UK and France reached a deal on a new pilot project whereby small illegal boat arrivals from France to the UK will be returned to their point of origin but "an equal number of migrants will be able to come to the UK from France through a new legal route – fully documented and subject to strict security checks."
The deal was to be further scrutinized by European authorities. Berlin says the agreement should be expanded with Germany. "We want to drastically reduce illegal migration in Europe," Chancellor Merz said. "We are on a good path, but we haven't reached the target yet." In May Germany started rejecting asylum seekers at the border, a decade after Angela Merkel had opened the country's borders.
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LE COURAGE POLITIQUE
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Perdu dans le brouhaha de l'attaque américaine contre les installations nucléaires en Iran, l'assassinat de la présidente de l'assemblée du Minnesota Melissa Hortman et de son mari a suscité de nouvelles inquiétudes au sein de la classe politique autant régionale que fédérale dans le pays du deuxième amendement. Mais les risques courus par les personnes qui consacrent leur vie à la vie publique traverse facilement les frontières à une époque où les divisions internes sont exacerbées par les médias sociaux et le manque de dialogue entre les extrêmes.
Quelques jours plus tard une explosion à l'extérieur du bureau de Browinn Ma, politicienne de Colombie-britannique, semait de nouvelles craintes chez les voisins du nord. Les femmes sont particulièrement ciblées, notamment au sein de sociétés où leur place dans la vie publique est limitée. Dans une entrevue sur la situation au Kenya, la juriste et recherchiste Nanjala Nyabola déclarait: "pour être femme politique il faut être superwoman" car celles-ci "sont incroyablement discriminées et attaquées" parfois même frappées ou forcées de se dévêtir en public! Vance Boelter est accusé du double meurtre au Minnesota ainsi que dans l'attaque d'un sénateur démocrate du même état et de sa femme.
Les deux couples avaient été visés chez eux, tandis que la déflagration au Canada avait lieu à l'extérieur du bureau de la ministre de l'infrastructure de la Colombie britannique à Vancouver Nord. Alors que les motifs politiques de cette attaque restaient à être clairement établis elle avait lieu peu après la publication d'un rapport du SCRS qui "met en lumière" l'évolution des menaces qui pèse sur les élus, notamment que "des auteurs de cybermenaces de (Chine) ont pris pour cible des membres de l’Alliance interparlementaire sur la Chine en 2021, y compris de multiples députés canadiens."
Ma, dans ses premiers commentaires publics, déclarait que l'attaque, que certains de ses collègues ont qualifie d'attentat terroriste, ne parviendrait pas à l'intimider et que son bureau restait disponible et au service de ses électeurs. Cette semaine à l'autre bout du pays la police arrêtait un suspect pour avoir envoyé des menaces de mort au maire de Brampton. Bref il ne faut pas manquer de courage pour se lancer en politique dorénavant.
Le bureau du Conseil privé signallait l'an dernier l'augmentation des menaces de tout genre contre la classe politique au Canada depuis la pandémie. Lors de ces seules premières années 55 menaces de mort avaient été proférées, notamment contre le premier ministre Trudeau mais également contre une douzaine de ses ministres. Ceci s'est répandu ailleurs également, notamment en Europe, et tant au niveau municipal et provincial que fédéral. Nombre de politiciennes même au niveau municipal ont notamment décidé de jeter l'éponge au Québec.
Lors d'un sondage l'an dernier de 1380 élus municipaux 58% disaient avoir été victimes de violence verbale, 46% d'intimidation et 36% de harcèlement. Plusieurs tiennent bon mais condamnent les gestes commis, notamment sur les médias sociaux.
Une politicienne de Québec, Bianca Dussault, a récemment, après une longue réflexion sur ses quatre premières années parfois difficiles en politique, décidé de briguer un nouveau mandat, justement afin de montrer à ses détracteurs qu'elle n'allait pas se laisser intimider. "Je vais me présenter parce que j'aime trop mon travail et j'ai à coeur de servir les citoyens de mon district, dit-elle au moment de l'annonce. C'est hors de question de les laisser tomber pour des gens qui se cachent derrière leur écran pour m'attaquer."
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CHOC KÉNYAN
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Trente cinq ans après le genre de printemps kényan qui s'est élevé contre le régime de Daniel Arap Moi et pavé le chemin du multipartisme et de la démocratie, les Kényans étaient de retour dans les rues du pays pour marquer cette commémoration du Saba Saba tout en s'interrogeant sur l'alarmant cheminement du régime actuel de William Ruto.
Elu en 2022 celui-ci semble avoir pris des habitudes plutôt propres aux despotes du passé, serrant la vis sur les libertés individuelles et la presse tout en accueillant la contestation par la répression. C'est la violence dirigée contre les manifestations sur la chèreté il y a un an qui a donné un double anniversaire aux rassemblements de cet été dans plusieurs villes du pays, marqués avec l'ardeur de la jeunesse d'un mouvement associé principalement à la génération Z.
Malheureu-sement certains rassemble-ments ont donné lieu à de nouveaux éclats et l'on soupçonne que d'autres méthodes favorisées par les hommes forts n'aient été employées. Le régime a-t-il provoqué ces violences en envoyant des plombiers taper sur le tas? C'est l'analyse de certains observateurs de mouve-ments sociaux qui ont condamné l'utilisation d'agents provocateurs lors des rassemblements.
La Commission nationale kényane des droits humains a dénoncé les abus de policiers "qui opéraient habillés en civil avec des véhicules non identifiés" et collaboraient "avec des gangs de criminels" dans plusieurs villes, notamment la capitale, qui a été bouclée lors des plus récents éclats. La police a nié ces accusations. Selon certains médias les incidents se seraient étendus à 17 des 47 comtés du pays. La création de ces comtés, dirigés par des gouverneurs, a été une manière de décentraliser le pays lors des réformes du passé, mais du travail reste à faire face à un état encore omnipotent.
Rutto n'a d'ailleurs jamais caché son admiration pour ses prédécesseurs plutôt sévères et son approche rappelle celle de Moi à plusieurs égards, notamment l'affaiblissement des institutions et le creusement des clivages ethniques, portant le blâme sur l'ethnie Kikuyu. "Nous sommes très en colère, et moi aussi, je trouve qu'il n'est pas justifiable d'empêcher les gens de manifester, déclare un manifestant, Francis Awino sur les ondes de France24. C'est une erreur, on a l'impression de revenir à l'époque de Moi quand les Kényans ne pouvaient pas s'exprimer."
Sur ce fond de désordre l'ancien dirigeant Raila Odinga a proposé plusieurs réformes afin de calmer la colère, notamment de s'attaquer à l'inflation à la source du soulèvement initial, puis de rénover la police, accusée d'attiser les tensions davantage. L'ancien premier ministre a écorché les forces de l'ordre "qui tirent sur les gens en toute impunité, une force héritée des colonialistes".
Le 25 juin 19 personnes ont été tuées lors d'affrontements puis 31 le 7 juillet tandis que des commerces étaient saccagés et des véhicules incendiés. Le nombre de décès dépasse déjà celui des manifestations historiques de 1990. C'est ajouter au sanglant bilan de 60 morts en 2024, sans parler de centaines d'arrestations, la plupart sans chef d'accusation. Les concessions de 1990 n'ont de toute évidence pas mis fin aux violences, qui ont repris dès la prochaine année, pour se reproduire en 2007 lors d'importants massacres ethniques faisant plus d'un millier morts et 600000 déplacés.
Dix ans plus tard des élections donnèrent lieu à de nouveaux affrontements, moins sanglants, mais plus récents, montrant l'aspect périodique de ce genre de violence. Mais tous ne perdent pas espoir. "Bon an mal an, malgré le tribalisme, les haines politiques tenaces, les massacres, les manipulations des politiciens de tout bord, le Kenya part à la conquête de sa diversité, observe Bruno Meyerfeld dans son livret Kenya: les séismes du Rift, à petit pas certes, mais assez pour prouver qu'Harambee (unité) n'est pas un vain mot, une devise en l'air."