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Biden leaves seat to Donald Trump in US presidential transition NPU file Photo
Trudeau's Fall
The location was familiar and indeed significant, the porch of a cottage in the outskirts of Ottawa where the Canadian prime minister addressed his countrymen with regularity to keep them updated on the fight against the covid pandemic that was keeping them locked up at home. While the setting of Rideau cottage may have harkened back to a time when Trudeau rose to the occasion, leading the country in the fight against the pandemic, it also reminded some members of the public of a difficult period marked by widely unpopular covid mandates and the Emergencies Act, which in time mined his popularity and eventually gave the Conservatives a clear path to victory in 2025. Nearly five years after that health crisis erupted, and nearly a decade after becoming the country's leader, Justin Trudeau chose the same setting to announce he would step down as Liberal party leader to allow someone else to run against the Pierre Poilievre Conservative freight train dominating the polls for over a year. The announcement was by then no longer a surprise and had been widely expected in fact after weeks of pressure not only from opposition politicians, including key partners that helped prop up his minority government, but within the Liberal party as well. After the resignation of a number of his deputy minister and finance minister on the day she was to deliver her fall economic statement, that was too much to bear. "As you know I am a fighter," he said in his first TV address in weeks, adding "It has become obvious to me, with the internal battles, that I cannot be the one to carry the Liberal standard in the next election." He reiterated he didn't think his opponent, whose party is comfortably leading the Liberals in polls, was the right person to steer the country considering his stance on climate change and social policies. It didn't take long for Poilievre to release a video noting every Liberal MP and "potential Liberal member-ship contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years," pointing to high inflation and rising crime as well as the housing crisis. He reiterated calls for an immediate federal election. But Trudeau said he would stay on as Liberal leader until a new one is chosen, launching a snap leadership campaign in an election year marked by the challenge of the incoming US administration. The Conser-vatives have been releasing similar campaign-looking videos of the sort for months, helped by healthy party coffers. Some of the slogans of axing the taxes, fixing the budget and building the homes have already grown old months before an expected early election. Trudeau leaves the political scene undefeated after winning three elections and prolonging his second minority mandate with the help of opposition support, but byelection losses, MP departures and dropping polls brought an end to a leadership initially launched under the international splash of "Trudeaumania". The depar-ture of Chrystia Freeland in December had made staying at the helm untenable. Like other leaders in the West from Britain to the United States next door, Trudeau was swept by the winds of change after a long tenure. Remarkably the prime minister seemed to think the leader eventually chosen by his party would be able to somehow eke out a win in a coming confidence vote, but opposition leaders made plain they would oust the Liberals at the first occasion. Such a vote of confidence is expected as soon as parliament resumes after the current prorogation period, which has shuts down the work of the House of Commons until late March. A new party leader would emerge on March 9th. Soon after Trudeau's announcement potential contenders started joustling for position, among them cabinet members but also the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England; the person who was rumored to take over Freeland's job, prompting her to quit the government in a storm pre-emptively. Time was of the essence for the party to choose a leader in time for an election campaign that looked more and more like a victory lap for the opposition. This did not prevent Freeland and Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor, from tossing their hats into the ring despite slim to non existent chances of success. As consolation, the leadership winner automatically becomes prime minister. Carney could accomplish this without even holding a seat. Freeland, however, runs the risk of repeating the short tenure of Canada's sole female prime minister, Kim Campbell, if she were to win the leadership. Both candidates gave signs early on they may be willing to bring changes to the carbon tax, which is highly unpopular among many Canadians despite delivering regular cheques to those living in participating provinces, taking away a Tory slogan.
Freedom under attack
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the defenders urge supporters and suppliers not to abandon them, reiterating their struggle is the free world's, and democracy's battle against the darkness of authori-tarianism. Sadly, in a year of continuing war in Eastern Europe and conflict in the Middle East, an increasing share of the world is living under some form of authoritarianism according to both Freedom House and this year' Economist Democracy Index. For the latter, this means just under 40%, while barely 45% of the planet lives under some form of democracy, and this includes only 7.8% of some 167 surveyed countries that are full democracies. The last year has brought the global democracy index further down, in fact to its lowest level since it was created in 2006, "suggesting authori-tarian regimes are becoming more entrenched and hybrid regimes are struggling to democratise." The biggest damage, by this account, has been in the Middle East and North Africa, with the flare-ups in Sudan and Gaza, certainly, but also in the Caribbean and Latin America, in regions consumed by internal wars of sorts with gangs and criminality. This ensured El Salvador's increasingly autocratic leadership a sure win in this year's elections, with others looking to emulate Bukele's strong-armed formula to tame drug gangs. The punishing method, criticized by human rights groups, has certainly dipped the level of violence in what was one of the world's most terrifying countries, but not without weakening further the state of democracy there. "His total control of government institutions means that opposition parties have little chance of challenging his re-election," the Economist Intelligence Unit's report notes. "Political reforms passed in June to reduce the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly and the number of municipalities will further constrain the chances of opposition parties to gain power," while media freedoms come under attack. The Freedom House report downgraded Ecuador from free to partly free due to the rising gang-related violence. In that annual report political rights and civil liberties were down in 52 countries and only 21 countries improved their situation. But as co-author Yana Gorokhovskaia notes: "Even if you look at it region by region, usually we are able to say that one is an outlier, but every single region registered a decline. The deterioration is pretty widespread." The report denounced efforts by incumbents "to control electoral competition, hinder their political opponents or prevent them from taking power" in countries including Cambodia, Turkey and Zimbabwe and -- unsuccessfully -- in Guatemala and Poland." There were however some bright spots as Thailand went from not free to partly free after relatively competitive elections, even if the regime prevented a young progressive whose party won the most seats from becoming prime minister. "This isn't, I would say, a full-scale victory for democracy or freedom and Thailand," nuanced Gorokhovskaia. The biggest improvement? Tiny Fiji after 2022 elections which ousted longtime ruler Frank Bainimarama, who had taken over in a coup in 2006. Since then Freedom House has noted marked progress including reduced censorship and laws to improve women's participation.
Dry cities
Media literacy resources
It's been another year of record hot temperatures and another punishing one may be in the forecast. Certainly Canadian authorities are already gearing up for what could be a summer wildfire season not unlike last year's devastating months of blazes, some of which were never fully extinguished and kept burning over the winter. Some Canadian communities have in fact already been under evacuation alerts due to wildfires. All this as the planet is struggling with water shortages the UN says are threatening half the world's population, many of them in major cities. And this drive to quench the thirst of those dehydrated millions is having another consequence on communities. Bogota, one of the world's highest cities, has started rationing water as reservoirs fell to critical levels. The capital and surrounding towns have been divided into nine zones that face rotating 24 hour water cuts as the country struggles with a drought made more severe by the year's El Nino weather phenomenon. Mayor Carlos Fernando Galán pleaded the millions under the rotating cuts to embrace “a behavioral change that is sustainable over time and guarantees that water is enough for everyone,” citing the dwindling water levels in the reservoirs supplying the city. Cities from Bengaluru, India to Cape Town have faced water restrictions over the years and struggle with supplying their residents with water, but Bogota's situation is particularly tricky due to its reliance on rainwater, tells CNN Armando Sarmiento of Bogota University. “Most cities around the world depend on aquifers for their water supplies. Bogota is different in that almost all our supply comes from surface waters like reservoirs, which are more susceptible to rain patterns,” he says. In Togo water shortages in parts of the country have made them a major electoral campaign issue, but these don't just happen in the global south either or developing countries for that matter. In North America Mexico has been facing the same emergency, leaving some neighborhoods dry for weeks at a time, and even Hawaii is said of being on the verge of catastrophe as it faces its own water crisis. As it heads to the polls this year Mexico's capital isn't only dealing with low reservoirs but leaking infrastructures, leaving its 22 million citizens struggling with often empty taps. Meanwhile in the US state where “water is life” locals are fearing a catastrophe after years of reduced rains and continued chemical leaks into water sources, especially on the island of Oahu. "We are in a water crisis, that has to be made very clear," says Wayne Tanaka, director of Sierra Club of Hawaii. "We may come to a point where we have to decide … who gets water and who doesn't." And tourism isn't helping either, the industry's needs squeezing available freshwater, not easily found despite the insular environment. Like Bogota, the island depends on rainfall, which has been in freefall as of late in some parts. "Hawaii is getting drier and drier, particularly since the 1980s," climatologist Pao-Shin Chu tells CBS. "...The consecutive dry days become longer and longer. That's very clear." And there are in fact a number of US cities facing water shortages, even if they have not all resorted to rotating cuts yet. They include San Antonio, San Diego and Las Vegas, where lavish pubic fountain displays come at a high cost. In Canada the Alberta city of Lethbridge is among a number of communities in the region to seek reductions in water usage as the province gears up for a potential drought. For now residents are being asked to curb their consumption voluntarily. Over-seas more alarming droughts-stricken urban areas include Delhi, Tokyo and Beijing, according to Seametrics, and the latter is among a number of Chinese cities facing another emergency, that of the sinking city, in part due to constant pumping of groundwater to quench the thirst of the masses on the surface amid frenzied development. The ironic consequence of this sinking is that, with rising water levels coastal cities face the possibility of catastrophic flooding in their future. An exaggeration? Excessive pumping of groundwater was a major contributor to the sinking of Indonesia's capital of over 10 million, exposing it further to surrounding waters. The accelerated sinking, while the Java Sea rises, would leave over a third of Jakarta submerged by 2050.As a result the government is moving the capital to a newly-built community in Borneo, which sadly, may cause further environmental damage to the massive island north of Java known for its rare species and ecosystems. Nusantara is expected to be inaugurated next year though it will take years to finalize. Its sprawling 256,000-hectares would mean mass deforestation in East Kalimantan province, which is home to Borneo's famed orangutans, leopards and other wildlife. But that is another tragic environmental story altogether.
Not all going up
While a number of advanced countries have sought to clamp down on immigration as of late, others are looking to welcome migrants with open arms in view of dropping birth rates. South Korea, which at 0.7% has one of the world's lowest rates and risks seeing its population drop over the next decades, is considering such a shift, ending a history of restrictive policies which have made it hard to move there for work. The East Asian country isn't the only one facing such a dilemma, neighbor Japan, currently home to the world's oldest person, has the same ageing demographics, putting the country on a path of declining population. Portugal and Hungary have turned to immigration to prevent population declines. Even globally the growth of populations is slowing down. It took twelve years for the world to grow from seven to eight billion inhabitants, a milestone reached in the Fall of 2022. It will take slightly longer, a projected 15 years, to grow to nine billion, in part due to lower fertility rates in more advanced countries, as those with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita, leaving growth to be increasingly concentrated in poorer countries, notably in sub-Saharan Africa. Oddly emigration, which is a major issue in these countries as well, is driving population shrinkage elsewhere. Eastern Europe is expected, in the decades ahead, to experience "the most significant population decline, largely due to emigration, with Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Latvia facing over 20% reductions by 2050", according to the World Population Review. Some 40 of 236 countries and territories around the world have shrinking populations, according to data compiled by the CIA's World Factbook. The Baltic states and other Eastern European countries such as Romania and Poland are listed among the fastest shrinking countries, but so are a number of islands, from the Cook islands (shrinking by some 2.2% annually) and American Samoa to Puerto Rico and Micronesia. South Korea's population, currently sitting just above 50 million, could drop by some 20 million inhabitants by 2070 without immigration, according to some projections. But down the road no country faces a population decline like the nation which was until recently the most populated on Earth. And it's desperate to try to do something about it. After decades of limiting couples to a single child, China is seeing its population steadily decline, and the drop could accelerate to catastrophic levels. According to some studies its 1.4 billion-plus population could be more than halved before the end of the century if Beijing doesn't manage to radically change this mindset and put in place policies encouraging couples to have more children, in a complete reversal of decades of one-child policy, which it dropped in 2016. Five years later, in a complete reversal, it espoused a three-child policy, promoting tax and other incentives. Last year it lost two million citizens, the second consecutive year of decline.
Into 2025
Days into the new year 2025 is already putting Western democracies to the test. Amid the G7 group of countries alone instability rocks a number of powers from Europe to North America as the new year is ushered in. While Canada's Trudeau government possibly lives its final weeks the incoming Trump administration has already lashed out against political opponents, the media, friends and foe alike.
The US was barely able to escape a government shut down one week before Christmas. In Europe meanwhile Germany and France are in transition as the first goes to the polls and the second tries to avoid a new election call. A bit further away in Georgia protesters are still spilling into the streets after what they view as having been an election interfered with to benefit a pro-Russian candidate.
Ironically, standing relatively quiet amid all this and surprisingly stable is a country usually known for its political chaos, Italy. Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has in fact praised her government as one living a rare period of calm amid the surrounding chaos and upheaval. The boot of Europe has had its share, and others' too, of short-lived govern-ments. Dozens in fact in the post-war era. Meloni embraced this rare moment - fleeting perhaps - of stability "compared to the political turbulence that several large European nations are facing".
France's Macron next door was until recently struggling to form a government after naming a new prime minister in the aftermath of the first removal of the head of government under the current republic. The country is also seized with the crisis in faraway Mayotte, ravaged by a recent cyclone. Germany meanwhile is carrying out its election after the collapse of its government in December, a campaign punctuated by a terror attack which killed five people. The suspect, a 50-year old doctor who came from Saudi Arabia in 2006, was reported as an Islamophobe who praised far-right groups looking to make a historic impact during the election.
Those groups had also collected the praise of billionaire and Trump's so-called "efficiency Czar" Elon Musk, who played no small role in the government shut down debate and will clearly have an influential one in the incoming administration. Musk was condemned by Berlin for election interference after backing the Alternative for Germany far right party, and even compared his public statements to Vladimir Putin's campaign of interference.
"They both want to influence our elections and support the AfD, which is hostile to democracy," noted Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) now sitting third in the polls, going on to say they both wanted "Germany to be weakened and pushed into chaos".
Everywhere countries were bracing for the change of government in Washington, threatening tariffs against its neighbors, China and Europe, but the US was itself in a state of upheaval after a terror attack sparked concerns of copycat incidents and narrowly averting a government shutdown while Maga supporters squared off against Republicans as well as Democrats in the lead up to inauguration day. The latest squabble involved an issue which galvanized GOP supporters.
Some immigration hardliners say visas for skilled workers take jobs away from U.S. workers, but proponents, which include Musk and Trump himself, say America benefits from hiring them as they draw talent from all over the world, talent rivals such as Canada would only be too happy to welcome themselves.
The northern neighbor meanwhile was the first to suffer from whiplash at a time of tariff threats as Trudeau's crumbling government struggled to resist calls for early elections. The first week of January Trudeau called it quits after weeks of turmoil and uncertainty. A week before Christmas Trudeau had orchestrated another cabinet change amid growing calls from both opponents and members of his own party to resign.
This time the NDP was calling for him to step down after months of propping up his minority government, but its leader wasn't necessarily ready to back a no confidence motion initiated by the conservatives. The grumbling has been intensifying within Trudeau's own inner circle, with Liberal MPs pressuring him to make up his mind about whether to resign, while a major business group decried the uncertainty and "chaos" in Ottawa. A majority of caucus members from Ontario "overwhelmingly" agreed he must resign, according to one MP, and others from his home province agreed Trudeau's time had come to step aside. Trudeau said he would resign as soon as a new party leader is chosen to compete in this year's election.
In the meantime Matthew Holmes of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce said business groups were edgy in view of the political drama. "There's just a vacuum right now and there's chaos at the centre," he told the Toronto Star. "We need clear actions from the government and the business community needs certainty."
LENDEMAIN DE DAMAS
Un mois après la victoire éclair des rebelles en Syrie et le renversement d'un régime tyrannique en place depuis 54 ans quel avenir pour ce pays dont le bouleversement a secoué la région? Les premiers signes semblent encourageants après une campagne d'ouverture du régime transitoire en place.
En peu de temps le chef rebelle victorieux Abou Mohammed al-Charaa a échangé sa veste kaki pour un complet avec cravate, abandonné son nom de guerre et choisi plusieurs ministres dont celui des affaires extérieures après avoir rencontré les membres de diverses minorités pour les rassurer. C'est tant mieux car la chute en quelques jours de la maison alawite alors que le monde était distrait par le conflit au Liban, apportait un changement titanesque à une région a présent redéfinie par cet affront aux intérêts iraniens et russes, en partie à l'avantage de la Turquie, qui a soutenu les rebelles.
Alors que les soutiens externes du régime sortant étaient affaiblis par la guerre contre Israel et distraits par le conflit russo-ukrainien, les opposants du régime Assad ont pu mettre fin à une révolte commencée lors du printemps arabe et mise en pause par un cessez-le-feu fragile.
Les scénarios étaient multiples après la chute de Damas: soit un nouvel Afghanistan, sous le régime d'une possible tyrannie islamiste, ou le chaos qu'a connu un autre pays qui avait renversé sa dictature il y a treize ans, la Libye. Al-Charaa, chef du groupe Hayat Tahrir al-Cham, qui dit avoir changé de cap depuis ses débuts extrémistes avec al-Qaida, s'est empressé de mettre en place des contacts avec l'occident et de donner des entrevues, notamment avec des femmes, promettant une approche plus inclusive afin de rassurer les minoritiés kurdes, druzes et chrétiennes.
Etait-ce le genre de promesse sans lendemain qui avait été faite par les Talibans en Afghanistan? "Les gens qui se méfient des gouvernements islamistes en ont peut-être vu de mauvais exemples," assure-t-il. Ce dernier semble avoir convaincu les Américains, qui l'ont retiré de la liste des plus recherchés, même si Washington n'est pas entièrement rassurée à propos de la stabilité du pays. Car des éclats ont tout de même eu lieu avec les fidèles de l'ancien régime.
Les Etats-Unis ont par ailleurs multiplié les frappes contre des positions de l'Etat islamique, jurant que le groupe terroriste ne serait plus hébergé en Syrie, mais l'administration entrante à la Maison blanche sera-t-elle aussi attentive, elle qui cherchera à minimiser ses interventions à l'étranger?
Cette semaine la Syrie recevait la visite des chefs de la diplomatie allemande et française, mais Al-Charaa, qui a nommé un premier ministre intérimaire, a mis en garde qu'il pourrait s'écouler quatre ans avant la tenue d'élections en bonne et due forme. Pendant ce temps des milliers d'expatriés sont sur le chemin du retour, eux qui avaient fui la région en grand nombre il y a dix ans. Ils étaient 17,000 selon Ankara à effectuer un retour depuis la Turquie en premier lieu, malgré les appel à la vigilence des observateurs.
KOREAN DRAMA
In a few hours the damage was done. Protesters had gathered in the streets while special forces were dispatched to the parliament where lawmakers overturned an infuriating declaration of martial law, and within hours the president was facing a first impeachment process. South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol’s hours-long martial law declaration in early December had stunned political supporters and rivals alike and shattered the image of stability and progress of the Asian tiger.
A month later the capital a stone's throw from the famous demilitarized zone is still awaiting the conclusion of this K-pop political soap opera in which lawmakers scuffled with armed special forces, the country's defense minister attempted to commit suicide while North Korean leaders accused their neighbor of becoming a "fascist dictatorship", the Constitutional Court having yet to rule whether, after the fury of events which eventually brought on a successful impeachment, Yoon will be reinstated or formally removed for initiating a rebellion.
In the mean time the acting leader, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, was stirring up controversy announcing plans to veto a number of bills backed by the opposition party, which has a majority in the national assembly. It wasn't long before the opposition impeached him as well, for counselling his predecessor of imposing martial law and refusing to complete Yoon's impeach-ment process. Still following?
There was more, the second impeachment was passed with only 151 votes, lower than the votes required in the first one, causing ruling party MPs to gather in the middle of the voting chamber claiming "abuse of power" and declaring that vote "invalid". They called for the speaker to step down. A third president hence took the helm in less than a month, the minister of finance, all the while the Constitutional Court now weighs on two impeachments.
Meanwhile another court approved an arrest warrant for Yoon, the first time a sitting South Korean president has faced an arrest warrant, but the security detail of the former leader scuffled with police trying to exercize the warrant and in the end managed to prevent his detention. The warrant detailed charges of abuse of authority and orchestrating a rebellion and was issued after Yoon refused to answer three summonses by investigators in recent weeks asking for his cooperation, according to the Corruption Investigation Office.
Yoon is now wanted for questioning in multiple investigations, including accusations of leading an insurrection, a crime punishable by life in prison or even the death penalty in South Korea. According to documents Yoon had allegedly instructed the military to “shoot the doors to break in and remove” lawmakers when they gathered to vote down martial law.“Break down the doors and drag them out!” he allegedly said at the time, according to prosecution summary.
The chaos has driven down the country's currency. With the northern neighbor ramping up rocket production as well as rhetoric and the region living under the threat of war in the China Sea in a period of geopolitical realignment, the moment was hardly ideal for this sort of crisis on the Korean peninsula.
COLD WINTER AHEAD?
At the end of another year of fighting and destruction, Ukraine is contemplating a cold winter after many of its power plants were targeted by Russia while hot war continues in the East. Kyiv's offensive has largely fallen flat, losing some of the lands gained in its bold offensive inside Russia's Kursk region, which has sputtered out.
Months away from entering into another year of war, and weeks before a potentially less supportive US administration takes over, President Volodymyr Zelensky is starting to explore making concessions, for now, to silence the guns. But not at any cost, and that may not be enough for the Kremlin. The defense of the homeland has been impressive, fighting off its powerful neighbor - which has had to find its own supports overseas - and striking deep into Russia.
But despite finally obtaining the permission and means to do so, this has only provoked Moscow to up the stakes, tweaking its military doctrine and using an intermediate-range missile it warns could be nuclear tipped, all the while bringing in foreign fighters. Putin warned “we believe that we have the right to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities."
Some European countries had been toying with the idea of sending troops into the fight of what could become a broader conflict. To prevent all this, Zelensky told Sky News he could consider temporarily abandoning the land Russia has gained during the conflict, if the rest of the country could fall under a "NATO umbrella". The rest Kyiv would later seek to reacquire "diplomatically." This is quite the departure from not dropping the weapons until all of the land lost, including Crimea a decade ago is regained.
It wouldn't mean NATO membership but a security umbrella of NATO members to ensure the peace. Of course none of this has formally been proposed, and remains hopeful reverie at this stage. Moscow is unlikely to welcome any NATO involvement so close to its borders. A conflict which has make remarkable use of unmanned drone technologies has still amassed a large death toll sparking desertion on both sides.
Recently the US urged Ukraine to change mobilization laws so it could drop the age of conscription to 18 to boost its ranks, but Zelensky has signaled this is something he will not consider. Even amid the brave resisting Ukrainian population, war wariness is settling in. That wariness is seeping deeper into Western Europe, concerned the Oreshnik missiles recently used against Ukraine could be difficult to intercept and could spread mass destruction elsewhere in Europe even if they were armed with conventional warheads.
Last summer the United States and Germany said they would rotate intermediate-range missiles into Germany as of 2026, further raising Moscow's ire, which, to some observers, brings Europe into a "new missile age." “We are in an arms race, and it’s going to develop over the next 20 years,” told the Washington Post Alexander Graef of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy. “And so what I think is going to happen is that these different parties — Russia, states in Europe, the United States — are growing their arsenals because they don’t have the numbers yet to use these weapons effectively and to destroy the many targets that are possibly there.”
Zelensky said this week Ukraine would accelerate missile production. Would this end with peace in Ukraine? Russia may not be willing to contemplate years of continuing war against its neighbor. The Kremlin is finding out the conflict has had an impact on its operations elsewhere in the world, where it hopes to wield broader influence. Its offensive in Ukraine has to some extent made it lose sight of other developments further away, such as in Syria, where rebels and jihadists hostile to the Russia-supported government have made substantial gains in Aleppo, Syria's second largest city.
The heavy engagement of its military assets in Ukraine slowed its response to the rebel offensive in Syria, Turkish security sources told Middle East Eye. “Russia is not a bystander, but we are likely witnessing the limits of the Russian military,” told the news site Omer Ozkizilcik of the Atlantic Council. “The two-day performance of Russia indicates that much of its air force capability has been redeployed to Ukraine.” But there's no denying Russia's gains against Ukrainian forces have been constant in recent months.
"This fall has been grim for Ukraine," wrote Emil Kastehelmi an analyst of the Black Bird Group. "According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 square kilometres in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 square kilometres in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses." Speaking to Newsweek he added: "If we assume that the Russians have enough manpower and equipment for the coming months, it's likely they will continue attacking aggres-sively. There are no immediate indications that the Russians would run out of steam in the near future."
UNE PREMIÈRE PRÉSIDENTE
D'abord le Botswana, bientôt la Namibie? Pas si vite. Si en fin de compte cet autre pays voisin de l'Afrique du sud n'est pas encore parvenu à déloger le parti au pouvoir depuis l'indépendance il a par contre élu la première femme au poste de président de son histoire.
Avant son décès plus tôt cette année le président Hage Geingob avait choisi comme successeure sa vice-présidente de 72 ans Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, donnant un petit air de changement dans la continuité politique du pays de trois millions d'habitants. Celle-ci a récupéré 57% des intentions de votes, permettant à l'Organisation du peuple du Sud-Ouest africain (Swapo) de poursuivre son règne pour l'instant.
"Merci pour votre confiance" a déclaré l'heureuse élue, qui devient seulement la deuxième femme chef d'état sur le grand continent. Au pouvoir depuis 1990, l'ancien mouvement de libération n'a plus la cote qu'il avait cependant. Corruption, chômage et inégalités, sans parler de l'usure du pouvoir, ont avec le temps miné l'appui swapiste.
On ne semble plus aux beaux jours du slogan « La Swapo, c'est la nation, et la nation, c'est la Swapo ». Comme au Botswana plus tôt cet automne, la jeune nation atteint une certaine maturité politique avec la montée des oppositions face à un parti hégémonique. Mais une véritable alternance devra attendre et pour certains "NNN" incarne tout le même un certain changement.
"Elle va gagner et changer les choses", déclarait Josephina Shitotoka à Voice of America. Le pays est un important exportateur d'uranium et de diamants et a fait d'importantes découvertes en matière d'hydrocarbures récemment, pourtant ces entrées bénéficient rarement le plus commun des mortels. "Il y a beaucoup d'activité minière à travers le pays mais cela n'améliore en rien les infrastructures ou les débouchés sur le marché du travail," déplore l'analyste Marisa Lourenco.
NNN s'engage à créer 250000 emplois en cinq ans en attirant des investissements "grâce à la diplomatie politique." L'oppo-sition a cependant dénoncé plusieurs irrégularités lors du vote, qui a dû être prolongé pendant quelques jours. Le président du parti des Patriotes indépendants pour le changement, Panduleni Itula, a fait savoir qu'il n'allait pas reconnaitre le vote mais plutôt saisir la cour afin d'obtenir "justice" suite aux élections.
«Nous ne pouvons qualifier ces élections de libres, équitables et légitimes », a-t-il dénoncé. Un certain vent de changement balaye l'Afrique australe cette année, car en plus des résultats moins reluisants obtenus par l'ANC en Afrique du sud l'ile Maurice a été témoin de la chute du gouvernement de Pravind Kumar Jugnauth.
THE MARCH OF THE MAORI
Its powerful theatrics plant the seeds of doubt and fear in the hearts of grown men, that certainly is the intent when it is uttered, nay acted out, before All Black rugby games, the performance itself being half the battle it is said. But it was in New Zealand's parliament where the ceremonial haka echoed thunderously last month when Māori lawmakers rose to object to a newly introduced bill to reinterpret the country's founding treaty.
Launched defiantly by a document-tearing opposition MP, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, the chant and choreography of hand gestures and dance movements rose from the floor of the legislature high into the rafters, echoed by loud participants in the gallery before the session was suspended and the gallery cleared.
The Māori's awesome tradition of resistance in full display. Meanwhile a national march against the proposed legislation was snaking its way from the north of the country to the capital Wellington led by bare-chested Maori men on a nine day peaceful marathon of protest. At the heart of the dispute is a bill introduced by a party of the ruling conservative coalition arguing the sacrosanct principles of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi had to be legally defined, a move critics fear would undermine the indigenous rights the country is famous for championing.
The party, Act, says the treaty has divided the country by race, leading to "ethnic quotas in public institutions", but the blowback has itself created palpable divisions as the parliament's events unfolded and marches progressed. Even Prime Minister Christopher Luxon conceded the proposed legislation was "divisive", despite stemming from a member of his right of centre coalition.
Since taking power last year the conservatives have introduced measures that have upset the Māori, who make 19% of the population. The closure of the Māori Health Authority, set up under the previous Labour government, was one of them as was favouring once more English over Māori in the official naming of government organisations.
Meanwhile the Waitangi Tribunal, which looks into breaches of the treaty, said the bill "purposefully excluded any consultation with Māori, breaching the principle of partnership, the Crown’s good-faith obligations, and the Crown’s duty to actively protect Māori rights and interests" and in turn "caused significant prejudice to Māori". In the end the bill has little chance of making it into legislation, lacking the support to see it through, but the damage is done.
The Māori had been here before, some twenty years after the original treaty tensions rose and led to conflict. The Māori were forced to assimilate after the treaty was declared a legal nullity in 1877. A Māori protest movement in the 1960s brought about a revival of indigenous culture, placing it at the heart of the nation's identity.
But now what Quebec would call "the peace of the brave" has been shattered, if only for a moment, though without barricades held by armed men as seen during the summer of 1990 in Canada or more recently in New Caledonia, where the indigenous population resisted new voting policies, seen as diluting their political weight, with deadly clashes.
There as well peace endured until legislation stirred the pot after being introduced without consulting those it affected the most. The controversial proposal in New Caledonia was abandoned as well after the eruption of violence which has claimed over a dozen deaths since may, but the tensions endure to this day.
IN NEED OF A FIX
After torrential rains provoking devastating floods from Eastern Spain to the Balkans in Europe as well as parts of Africa, the Americas and Asia, leaders at COP 29 were under no illusion they had to redouble their efforts to fight climate change after another record-setting year.
Even the Taleban, although not recognized by all participants, found the issue pressing enough to send representatives to a climate conference for the first time, seeking help developing mitigation and adaptation efforts. According to experts, this is no surprise as Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to global warming. "Climate change has resulted in higher temperatures, which reduce water sources and cause droughts," told AP Hayatullah Mashwani of Kabul University. "The reduction in water availa-bility and frequent droughts pose severe threats to agriculture, leading to food insecurity and challenges to livelihoods."
According to Save the Children the country is ranked the sixth most vulnerable country in the world with 25 of 34 provinces facing severe droughts. Nearby Pakistan was notably struck by devastating floods and extreme heat this year, hardly recovering from similar events two years ago. The repetition of such disasters and their worsening intensity is having an impact on children's mental health according to a study by the World Economic Forum this summer.
"The economic and physical health impacts of climate change are clear, Pakistan’s population is also experiencing the often overlooked mental health ramifications," the report stated. "The devastating fallout from the floods and extreme heat have stoked a sense of climate anxiety or 'eco-anxiety' in locals, a term popularly used to convey despairing sentiments around the climate crisis."
In Africa extreme heat has also made it unbearable to attend class for some children, hampering education for future generations, one that is so crucial to ensure the continent's future develop-ment and posperity. While expectations were high at the conference, some looked on with unease at the incoming US administration, more likely to abandon green measures while espousing drilling policies. The current White House meanwhile tried to reassure participants the fight against the climate crisis is bigger than any election result, but not everyone is convinced.
The US has been battered by hurricanes, tornadoes and flooding this season and wildfires scorched parts of California and New York state as the conference was starting. But a number of world leaders in fact decided to give the summit a miss, notably those of top polluters including the US, India and China. But Britain's new prime minister said he was looking forward to meeting new ambitious targets to tackle climate change. "Acts on climate now is the route towards economic growth, energy security, better jobs, and national security in the long term to deliver on the Paris agreement," he said.
The choice of venue for COP29 once more raised some eyebrows. Baku, like Dubai last year, belongs to a major oil power, sparking criticism the outcome would yield little despite rising emergencies on every continent. In fact Azerbaijani officials were using the gathering to discuss potential oil and gas deals according to the BBC, quite remote from the stated goal of negotiating compensation for impacts of climate change to poorer countries. Meanwhile oil company Shell won an appeal against a landmark ruling that required it to accelerate carbon reduction efforts. Former US vice-president and longtime climate campaigner Al Gore said the yearly gathering had to be reformed.
"I think it's absurd to have, for example, what we had last year with the CEO of one of the dirtiest oil companies on the planet serving as the president of the COP," he told EuroNews. "It's a direct conflict of interest," calling this year's host "in synch with this country's reliance on fossil fuels." He proposed that the UN's secretary general pick the venue of future summits and said relying on technology to solve the climate crisis only played into the hands of oil and gas interests, singling out carbon capture and storage meant to store away CO2 underground.
"They've been proven to be completely ridiculous and totally ineffective," he said. "Of course the fossil fuel companies want to pretend that that's the solution - anything other than reducing the amount of fossil fuels that are burned or reducing their markets." Yet, as the Economist pointed out, technology remains and "has always been a vital part of the fight to regain control over the climate" and renewables get cheaper every year.
But Gore is hardly the sole critic of the summit. More than 20 experts signed a letter saying the COP wasn't working and in need an overhaul. COP's "current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity," they wrote.
UN NOUVEAU MODÈLE?
L'aveu d'une défaite cinglante, la félicitation du nouveau vainqueur et la promesse d'une transition pacifique, voilà tous les éléments d'une conclusion électorate saine, signes de stabilité démocratique. Mais alors que le monde avait les yeux rivés sur l'élection américaine plusieurs ont raté la transition exemplaire au Botswana, exemple pour le continent africain mais pour le reste de la planête également.
L'élection du mois dernier était d'autant plus notable qu'elle confirmait l'alternance pour la première fois après 60 ans d'indépendance. A l'époque Duma Boko, un avocat quinquagénaire des droits humains éduqué à Harvard, n'était pas encore au monde.
En remportant 31 des 60 sièges sa coalition de gauche Umbrella for Democratic Change délogeait pour la première fois le parti au pouvoir depuis la rupture avec la couronne britannique. Et comment a réagi le dirigeant sortant Mokgweetsi Masisi? Presque avec enthousiasme: «Je veux féliciter l’opposition pour sa victoire. Nous avons eu tout faux aux yeux du peuple,» dit-il en s'engageant à faciliter la transition.
« Nous sommes tout à fait heureux de nous retirer pour devenir une opposition loyale qui demande des comptes au gouver-nement».
Il faut dire que l'état de l'économie, qui dépend notamment du diamant et du tourisme, et la corruption ont finalement eu raison du Parti démocratique du Botswana, mais le résultat n'a pas moins causé la surprise. Le signal était-il envoyé au voisin sud-africain dont le gouvernement au pouvoir depuis la fin de l'apartheid maintient sa place malgré sa cote de popularité glissante? Ce signal pourrait aussi bien traverser l'océan pour effectuer un rappel à l'administration entrante à Washington.
Reconnaissant l'«immense responsabilité» qui lui a été confiée avec «humilité », Boko a salué la «transition démocratique réussie, pacifique et ordonnée» de ce petit pays du sud du continent de 2,6 million d'âmes regroupant la plus importante population d’éléphants au monde.
Le chômage (27 %), notamment chez les jeunes, figurait au haut des préoccupations dans ce pays qui, comme son voisin, connait d'importantes inégalités. Mais la démocratie elle, se porte plutôt bien. Alors que la baisse de popularité du parti au pouvoir avait été ressentie depuis plusieurs années, sa chute a surpris plusieurs observateurs.
Un telle « probabilité semblait très faible», selon l’économiste Keith Jefferies, se livrant à l'AFP. On aurait ainsi assisté à « un raz-de-marée d’électeurs qui ont changé d’allégeance ». Une bouffée de fraicheur alors que le monde tombe dans une humeur plutôt sombre après l'éclat américain et la montée des extrémismes et des puissances autoritaires. Le salut viendrait-il de ce coin Afrique?
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
How far will some countries go to track down their enemies? Israel isn't the only country that will go to the ends of the Earth to target perceived threats to the state. Foreign regimes, both friend and foe, have plotted attacks against people of interest who emigrated to North America with increasing boldness, according to multiple investigations.
One week after the RCMP staged a rare press conference to accuse Delhi of being behind the assassination of a Sikh activist in Canada, a senior Iranian military official was charged in an alleged plot to kill an Iranian-born American activist in the US. These are just the latest allegations after a series of cases of state-sponsored killings in the last years, some of which have grabbed international headlines, such as the poisoning of former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko in London and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkiye.
The new allegations have landed in North America and are now casting a new light on the investigations of previous killings. In February the US Department of Justice said it foiled four state-sponsored assassination attempts. One of them involved a Sikh activist, in an alleged murder for hire plot disrupted by the DEA. Charges were laid two months after Justin Trudeau publicly accused India of being behind the murder of a Sikh activist. Delhi denies the Canadian accusation and asked to see the evidence. Intelligence agencies have had their eyes on these sort of attacks for years.
"We face a rising threat from authoritarian regimes who seek to reach beyond their own borders to commit acts of repression, including inside the United States," stated the DOJ's Matthew Olsen two years ago. Some of the sponsors are considered rogue states, such as Russia and Iran. Brig. Gen. Ruhollah Bazghandi, a senior official in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and three other men were charged in a plot to kill Iranian-born US author and activist Masih Alinejad.
The targets or victims were often born in the countries seeking to silence them. Other regimes, such as Saudi Arabia and India, have complex relationships with Western countries whose citizens they are allegedly targeting, something that became obvious after Trudeau's and the RCMP's statements on India, sparking a diplomatic crisis, though impact on trade has not been felt. After the chill between Saudi Arabia and the US following the Khashoggi killing, relations have thawed.
Canada and India may take longer to return to the relationship they once shared, especially as previous murders are looked at in a new light. This includes the killing of a man who had been acquitted in the 1985 Air India bombing attributed to Sikh separatists. Known criminals Tanner Fox and Jose Lopez pleaded guilty to second-degree murder in the 2022 death, but the family of the victim is asking them to cooperate and reveal who hired them to carry out the hit.
Hiring criminals to carry out state-sponsored terrorism is one of the allegations the RCMP made as it launched a special unit to investigate multiple cases of extortion, coercion and violence, including murders, linked to agents of the Indian government. In the recent case of the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada police alleged diplomats collected information which they then passed on to criminals to carry out attacks. More recently Canada went further, accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of being behind a campaign of violence and intimidation targeting Sikh activists.
L'OMBRE DE MOSCOU
L'ombre de Moscou planait au-dessus des appels aux urnes aux frontières de l'Europe. Certes le vote référendaire sur l'adhésion à l'Union européenne est passé en Moldavie, ce petit état voisin de l'Ukraine dont une partie du territoire est semi-autonome et russophile, mais l'ingérence étrangère de Moscou a eu son impact: il est passé avec à peine plus de 50%, un résultat référendaire presque québécois.
La présidente Maia Sandu s'est empressée de dénoncer les «ingérences sordides» lors du vote, qui représente le premier d'un nombre de défis électoraux pour ce petit pays de 3 millions d'habitants. Cette «attaque sans précédent contre la démocratie» aurait selon elle été perpétrée par «des groupes criminels, agissant de concert avec des forces étrangères hostiles à nos intérêts nationaux, (qui) ont attaqué notre pays à coups de dizaines de millions d’euros, de mensonges et de propagande».
L'exercice aurait eu l'ambition d'acheter non moins de 300,000 votes, des institutions nationales ayant «documenté l'achat du vote de 150 000 personnes», un chiffre conséquent quant on considère l'écart qui a séparé les deux camps, à peine une douzaine de milliers de votes en tout.
La Géorgie pendant ce temps, elle aussi ébranlée par l'invasion de l'Ukraine, se livrait au même combat lors de sa campagne législative, même si la question de l'Europe n'a pas été posée aussi directement. Le vote avait lieu quelques mois après des mouvements de protestation contre la loi d'ingérence au goût très russe de l'oligarque influent Bidzina Ivanishvili. Ce dernier laissait entendre qu'un vote contre le parti qu'il a fondé, le Rêve géorgien, risquait la guerre dans ce pays déjà grignoté par son voisin russe, un peu à la manière de l'Ukraine.
Moldavie et Géorgie faisaient partie de l'URSS et abritent de fortes minoritiés russes sur des terres échappant paefois au contrôle du gouvernement central. Le parti au pouvoir fut donné vainqueur mais non sans la contestation de l'opposition qui dénonçait des "élections volées" et un "coup d'état constitutionnel" dans un pays où l'appui pour l'Europe est généralisé. Une enquête sur la "falsification présumée" du vote a été lancée.
Sandu pendant ce temps préparait déjà la ronde suivante en Moldavie, plus personnelle puisqu'elle devait lutter contre le candidat pro-russe Alexandru Stoianoglo au second tour de la présidentielle, quelques mois avant les législatives de l’été 2025, toutes sans aucun doute disputées sous influence. Celle-ci semblait avoir gagné son pari malgré une campagne marquée par plusieurs menaces.
S'il y a un pays de l'ancien bloc soviétique où les élections ne menaçaient pas de changer la donne il s'agit bien de la Lituanie, qui malgré son changement de cap - le pouvoir passant de la droite à la gauche - maintient son soutien indéfectible pour Kiev. Mais l'influence russe n'y a pas moins été ressentie.
TRUMP RE-ELECTED
Perhaps it was too much to change horse in mid-stream, perhaps the disgruntlement of Americans reeling from high prices and a sense of missing out on economic opportunities despite the generally performing economy, was too great. Maybe it was the thirst for change or perhaps America is still not ready for a female president.
In the end it didn't matter that Donald Trump had become a convicted felon, conducted a campaign high on hyperbole and merchandising and low on policy details, toyed with being a dictator on day 1 or using the army to crush dissent by political opponents, even executing them, praised Hitler, used profanity and made lewd remarks during rallies, slammed migrants for bringing in bad genes and vowed to launch mass deportations, all while suggesting Americans may no longer need to vote again after Nov. 5.
The 45th US president returned to the White House with a vengeance, something that we could be mistaken for not taking literally. Not only was he projected winner on election night scoring some 291 electors, whereas some were expecting a call days away, fearing long legal battles, but he also secured the popular vote and looked to win both houses to carry out his mandate in force, a Supreme Court already tucked into his corner, its abortion ruling not enough of a catalyst to galvanize the masses against the Republican candidate.
Those court cases against Trump would for the most part be dropped and the opposition left reeling after the new hopes that followed Kamala Harris' rise to headline the Democratic ticket, replacing an underperforming and weakened Joe Biden. The Democratic coalition failed to score where it mattered and in fact was less successful than Biden four years ago, while Trump bettered his own numbers, scoring "bigly" among Latinos, whom he had disparaged so often in the past. At least the clear result prevented the unpalatable post-election scenarios of 2020 or 2000 and voting day, despite the occasional bomb threats, was largely spared major disruptions.
The traditionally long campaign had been the most eventful in recent history, marked by a change of candidate in one camp and two assassination attempts in the other, and targeted by a campaign of influence from abroad targeting both camps. World leaders who had hoped not to relive the tensions of Trump's previous presidency, the threats to NATO, trade renegotiations and anti-immigrant policies, were left putting on a crooked smile, congratulating him for winning four more years, a rare feat after the interruption of the Biden years too many Americans decided were just not good enough to leave the Democrats in power.
Now they had to brace for measures at a critical junction in big power history, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle-East, disputes the president-elect promised to settle soon into his administration, for bad or for worse. They had to brace for possible new trade tariffs, especially Three Amigo partner Mexico, which Trump said would face massive tariffs if it could not prevent migrants from heading to the US border, despite its recent efforts on the issue. How, some wondered abroad as well as in many parts of the US who had been so anxiously anticipating the results, could n.45 be given another chance?
Perhaps it was a case of, in the words of a bumbling predecessor: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me (twice)... you're can't get fooled again." No amount of celebrity power, Taylor Swift be damned, were a match of Elon Musk it seemed, or able to prevent a stunning political comeback, sweeping most of the battleground states. "We achieved the most incredible political thing," Trump declared in his victory speech. "This will forever be remembered as the day the American people regained control of their country," vowing to close the border among other measures he now faces less opposition to carry out than eight years ago, and this time, perhaps, with a mind set on revenge. Or was this much for show?
The vitriol certainly seemed real, as well as plans to purge the civil service so it is filled with loyalists and yes men. This all seemed far removed from Kamala's hopes to "end the drama" in Washington. Unlike Trump four years ago, Harris, conceded the election hours after her rival was projected winner and promised a smooth and peaceful transition.
"The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for, but hear me when I say, the light of America's promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting," she said before tearful supporters. "While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign," While supporters hoped neck and neck polls during the campaign would hatch a secretive pro-Kamala female vote, it was the Trump support which defied expectations.
Despite a promising start, Harris failed to close the deal or distance herself enough from her unpopular president, observers say. "After a remarkable start to her campaign, Harris failed to close the deal rhetorically. In an unfortunate echo of Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016, Harris spent far too much time trying to argue that Trump was unfit for the presidency and too little time delivering a coherent message about why she would be better," argued commentator Michael Hirsh in Foreign Policy. "Despite overpowering Trump in their only debate on Sept. 10 and raising more than $1 billion in donations in just three months—a new record—Harris often floundered when challenged to deliver a convincing summary of her agenda on critical issues such as the economy and immigration." Trump's election may have sent shock waves in a number of circles, it also sent stocks soaring.
SECRET D'ÉTAT
Triste constat, lorsqu'un poste présidentiel a des allures de mandat à vie en Afrique, la santé du chef de l'état peut devenir une affaire de secret défense. Pourtant tous les régimes du continent ne réagissent pas nécessairement de la même façon lorsque des rumeurs circulent sur le dirigeant en question.
Absent de l'arène publique pendant sept semaines, le genre d'absence normalement associé à un voyage à l'étranger dont le moment fort a lieu dans un cabinet de médecin, le président camerounais Paul Biya a fait l'objet de plusieurs rumeurs sur son état de santé, des rumeurs qui se sont butées au deni des autoritiés assurant l'"excellente santé" du nonagénaire au pouvoir depuis 1982.
Les détails ont été cependant plutôt rares puisque les médias ont fait face à l'interdiction d'enquêter ou d'en glisser mot. Cette absence a notamment inspiré une chanson populaire par l'artiste rappeur engagé Xzafrane, "rentre à la maison président" qui a connu un franc succès sur les réseaux sociaux camerounais, attirant plus d'un million d'écoutes. "Si le chef d'état est bien portant pourquoi ne peut-on pas poser de questions sur sa santé?" entonne-t-il.
Au Malawi, ou un relativement plus jeune, quasi septuagénaire, à la tête du pays fit également parler de lui, le parlement a cherché à se faire rassurant en faisant circuler des vidéos d'un Lazarus Chakwera pétant de santé, finissant ses parcours de jogging avec une série de pompes. La santé des chefs d'état fait beaucoup parler d'elle depuis la fin de la candidature de Joe Biden, et la question est particulièrement délicate en Afrique selon certains observateurs.
"Vous devez refléter un certain type d'homme afin de dominer en politique, note à la BBC Miles Tendi, enseignant à Oxford, vous ne pouvez laisser paraitre de faiblesse ou de vulnerabilité." La "performance masculine" définit ainsi la politique africaine, ajoute-t-il, notant qu'il n'y a qu'une seule femme à la tête d'un pays africain, la tanzanienne Samia Suluhu Hassa, qui a hérité du pouvoir à la mort de son patron masculin.
Résultat, selon Adekeye Adebajo de l'université de Johannesbourg, les dirigeants "laissent l'impression que la santé du pays est intimement liée à leur santé personnelle." Ces réflexes sont les plus forts dans les pays où les institutions sont les plus faibles et lorsque la succession baigne dans l'incertitude. Le secret d'état a été parfaitement préservé pendant quelque temps après le décès de Laurent-Désiré Kabila au Congo en 2001, période pendant laquelle la version officielle voulait qu'il soit en voyage au Zimbabwe pour subir un traitement médical.
En fin de compte les pires rumeurs sur Biya, certains avaient évoqué l'hypothèse de sa mort, se sont avérées fausses, ce dernier a finalement fait un retour au pays, sans pour autant fournir de réponse ou d'expliquer les blancs de son calendrier depuis son départ, début septembre, pour un forum de la coopération sino-africaine en Chine.
Son absence à l'Assemblée générale de l'ONU ainsi qu'au sommet de la francophonie avait alimenté les premières rumeurs. Un meilleur effort de transparence dans la communication présidentielle aurait évité ce genre de spéculation, qui peuvent parfois sur ce continent inspirer certains opposants à passer à l'acte...
BEYOND THE LINES
After years of Russian offensives in Ukraine, and new Ukrainian incursions in Western Russia, it would be wrong to assume the war has been confined to these parts of Eastern Europe. The conflict has in fact extended its tentacles well beyond the front lines and further West. Since the first Russian tanks crossed into Eastern Ukraine Russia has also been carrying on with a "reckless campaign of sabotage" in countries supportive of Kyiv according to the heads of Western intelligence agencies keeping tabs on a number of suspicious fires and other incidents from the British isles to the Baltics.
“The risk level has changed,” told Reuters Vice Admiral Nils Andreas Stensønes, head of Norway's Intelligence Service. “We believe sabotage is more likely, and we see acts of sabotage happening in Europe now which indicate that they have moved a bit on that scale.” In his annual update on security threats to the British homeland, the head of MI5 concurred earlier this month Russia's intelligence agency has been active generating "sustained mayhem on British and European streets".
Ken McCallum said the Kremlin's spies had been responsible for acts of "arson, sabotage and more dangerous actions conducted with increasing recklessness" across Great Britain, because of London's staunch support of Volodymyr Zelensky. "The first 20 years of my career here were crammed full of terrorist threats," he noted. "We now face those alongside state-backed assassination and sabotage plots, against the backdrop of a major European land war."
The expulsion of over 700 Russian diplomats from Europe, "the great majority of them" spies, has put a dent in these efforts, requiring Moscow to turn to proxies, such as mercenaries or simple criminals, to carry on with these missions to do "their dirty work".
This poses problems on many levels according to the US army's top general in Europe, most notably because these actors have not been trained to recognize the red lines that have prevented catastrophic outcomes in the past. Such a "miscalculation" could be very perilous. "We could tumble into this thing because of the people that are currently snooping around Europe and causing mischief in all our backyards," stressed Gen. Darryl Williams during a recent panel discussion.
Among the many incidents of note was the fire at a DHL logistics facility in Leipzig this summer which German officials said was a result of Russian sabotage. "We are seeing sabotage across Europe," agreed warfare expert Jack Watling, citing other acts of arson as well as the attempted assassination of the chief executive of Germany's leading arms manufacturer. "And we have had Russian weapons fly through NATO airspace on their route to Ukraine multiple times," he added, "So this is very real and it could escalate."
Sharing their first ever joint remarks, the heads of MI6 and the CIA, Sir Richard Moore and Bill Burns, also sounded the alarm on the Kremlin's disinformation campaign and its "cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation designed to drive wedges between us", perhaps the most damaging of all. Not unrelated, are fears of growing Russian activity near undersea cables.
DÉJÀ MONDIALE?
Alors que Moscou brandit la menace nucléaire et laisse planer la catastrophe d'une guerre mondiale, celle-ci est-elle déjà en train de se former dans une certaine mesure? Alors que les volontaires de l'ouest affluent appuyer leurs confrères ukrainiens au front on ne compte plus les nationalités qui se rangent également dans l'autre camp, bien souvent pour des raisons financières.
Cubains, Biélorusses d'abord puis Nord-coréens et Népalais aussi, autant de participants pour en faire un conflit international alors que les deux capitales comptent sur l'appui de pays partageant leur interpretation de l'ordre mondial qui doit régner dans l'avenir. A l'avant plan de ces campagnes de recrutement côté russe, encore et toujours, cette Wagner indifférente au sort de son ancien dirigeant, qui poursuit ses activités au coeur même de l'Afrique.
La semaine dernière l'opposition à Bangui dénonçait le recrutement de Centrafricains pour aller se battre sur le front ukrainien. "Ces compatriotes ainsi largués sont utilisés comme des éclaireurs, sans protection, dans le conflit russo-ukrainien et n'ont aucun espoir de rentrer un jour au pays retrouver leurs familles, a déclaré Martin Ziguelé, porte-parole du Bloc républicain pour la défense de la Constitution.
Le BRDC s'indigne et exige des explications du pouvoir, tout en appelant les organisations de défense des droits humains à mutualiser leurs efforts afin de dénoncer et documenter ces dérives ». Le gouvernement assure que les informations de l'opposition sont fausses, mais le modus operandi semble familier. Le gouvernement cubain avait également dénoncé ces opérations de recrutement de jeunes qui espéraient ainsi pouvoir quitter le pays pour trouver des horizons plus prometteurs, même s'ils doivent passer par les affres de la guerre. Pour certains observateurs africains, une telle campagne rappelle une pratique plutôt familière.
"Voilà que les Russes cherchent aussi des tirailleurs comme la France à l'époque, note un commentateur sur un site de nouvelles camerounais, quelques semaines après la commémoration du 80e anniversaire du débarquement de Provence des tirailleurs d’Afrique du Nord et d’Afrique subsaharienne. En tout cas le noir sera toujours esclave aux yeux des blancs."
A des milliers de kilomètres de là, des campagnes de recrutement brandissent la promesse de contrats lucratifs ou même de citoyenneté russe, jusqu'au Sri Lanka, note Deutsche Welle. Richement payés à coup de 2000$ au moment de la signature avec promesse d'en recevoir autant chaque mois, ils ont été nombreux à s'engager. Mais plusieurs ont été surpris de se retrouver au front plutôt qu'à l'arrière pour assurer le ravitaillement, comme on leur avait dit pour les rassurer.
Quitter avant la fin de leur contrat serait passible de plusieurs années de prison. Ils viendraient des anciennes républiques soviétiques, du Kyrgyzstan ou du Tajikistan, mais aussi du Népal, ils seraient plusieurs milliers à eux seuls, ou de l'Inde voisine. Récemment le président ukrainien dénonçait pour sa part "une alliance grandissante entre la Russie et des régimes comme la Corée du Nord" comprenant "l'envoi de personnes... dans les forces armées de l'occupant."
Peu à peu tous les continents seraient ainsi représentés dans ce choc d'Europe de l'est qui ne s'essouffle pas mais qui pourrait prendre une tournure différente si l'administration venait à changer à Washington, allié le plus important de Kiev.
VOISINS ENVIEUX
Après la crainte sénégalaise puis la réaffirmation de son exception, les citoyens des pays voisins d'Afrique de l'ouest critiquent chez eux la lenteur de la transition après les coups d'états, dénonçant l'emprise des militaires souvent sur un fond d'insécurité. Cette prise de courage n'a pas toujours eu les effets espérés.
Alors que l'impatience monte et que les partis politiques et la société civile en Guinée et au Mali faisaient appel au retour à l'ordre constitutionnel après les récents coups d'état, le Tchad et le Togo débutaient enfin leur campagne électorale après un nouveau délai, semant le doute au sein de l'opposition. Si le scénario n'est pas sans rappeler celui de Dakar plus tôt cette année autant se souvenir qu'on n'en est pas au premier report du scrutin. Même cri de coeur des opposants dans un Burkina Faso en pleine tourmente.
Une attaque revendiquée par le Jnim (groupe islamiste), faisait 73 victimes au début du mois. Le gouvernement de transition, comme d'autres également issu d'un coup d'état, annonça du coup le prolongement de la mobilisation générale des citoyens de 18 ans et plus afin de «poursuivre la lutte contre le terrorisme». Mais la société civile s'organise à Ouaga afin de prévoir le retour des civils à la tête du pays de 22 millions d'habitants. Le Front pour la Défense de la République veut engager la transition civile et préparer les prochaines élections, denonçant la "répression" d'une "tyrannie sans nom" ainsi que les civils tués et les enlèvements depuis la prise de pouvoir des militaires en 2022.
Au Mali où insécurité va de pair avec la crise humanitaire, la junte a répondu aux appels de l'opposition avec la suspension des activités des partis et associations politiques "pour des raisons d'ordre public". Elle a également interdit la couverture médiatique de ces partis. Ceci des semaines après ce qui devait être la fin de la période de transition de la junte au pouvoir.
Plus de 80 partis politiques avaient fait appel à la tenue d'élections et à la fin de la période de transition militaire qui a suivi deux coups d'états en autant d'années. Un décret présidentiel avait fixé au 28 mars l'échéancier mais aucune date électorale n'est encore prévue, la présidentielle ayant été reportée sine die. Les organisations proches du pouvoir estiment que la "mission" des autorités n'est pas encore terminée.
Des douzaines de partis politiques dénoncent un "vide juridique et institutionnel" au pays, exigeant l'organisation d'élections "dans les meilleurs délais". Les opposants redoutent l'indépendance de la cour constitutionnelle qui doit doit trancher sur ce débat capital. En Guinée en même temps, les partis politiques exigeaient un retour à l'ordre constitutionnel avant la fin de l'année, un échéancier initialement prévu dont on craint le report là aussi.
Selon Abdoulaye Oumou Sow, porte-parole du Front national pour la défense de la Constitution, rien n’empêche les autorités de la transition d’organiser des élections, et l'opposition menace de ne plus reconnaitre le pouvoir transitionnel si ses revendications sont ignorées. «Si on s’en tenait à l’accord de la Cédéao, c’est sûr qu’à partir de ce mois de mars, on aurait déjà une Constitution, on aurait déjà des élus à la base, notamment, les élections communales et communautaires se seraient déjà déroulées, dit-il. Mais malheureusement, comme la junte n’a pas de volonté, elle n’a rien fait pour mettre en œuvre le chronogramme de la Cédéao.»
Par conséquent l'opposition a proposé une révision constitutionnelle soumise à référendum, ajoutant: «rien ne peut empêcher qu’on parte maintenant aux élections, sauf la mauvaise volonté de la junte qui veut, de manière dilatoire, confisquer le pouvoir. » Même cri de l'opposition au Togo, où l'opposant Jean-Pierre Fabre condamnait le report des législatives et régionales, dont la campagne commence tout juste, de "pure provocation". L'opposition dénonce, autre terme familier, un "coup d'état constitutionnel" avec l'adop-tion surprise et controversée de la nouvelle Constitution.
Le ministre de la fonction publique se défend: « Il est nécessaire d’établir les principes de fonctionnement de la nouvelle législature avant qu’elle ne soit mise en place ». Mais là comme ailleurs dans la région, on est à bout de patience. Car pour l'opposition, la nouvelle Constitution laisse à désirer et cache une intention bien claire: «Personne n'est dupe, déclare l'opposant Jean-Pierre Fabre, accusant le président de vouloir échapper aux limites de mandat et d'ignorer l'opinion de la population.
Le Togo est devenu le champ d'expérimentation d'une poignée d'affairistes africains.» Pendant ce temps le président et chef de la junte tchadien Mahamat Idriss Déby tentait de se faire rassurant à propos de la limite de deux mandats successifs: "Je vais respecter la constitution", dit-il. Mais l'opposition dénonce la position moins que neutre de l'armée. Là également, beaucoup semble se jouer dans les casernes.
AFFORDABLE THREATS FOM ABOVE
They menacingly crisscross Eastern European and Middle Eastern skies, and far beyond. Increasingly the weapon of choice for low budgeted forces from Yemen to Ukraine, drones have been multiplying over the battlefields of the planet.
So Myanmar's military junta need not have been so surprised when they showed up over the capital Nya Pyi Taw this month as the insurgents of the government in exile launched a coordinated attack in its ongoing war against the regime that once welcomed and later removed Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. In terms of military operation it had limited success, it was certainly less effective than previous attacks along the country's borders with India and China which extended the group's territorial claims over large swaths of the country.
The exiled national unity government claims it controls 60% of the 676,000 sq. kilometre nation of 54 million. But the victimless aerial attack on the airport and military installations allowed it, like Ukraine's armed forces or Yemen's Houthi's, to extend its reach and hit targets further away, amid a period of anxiety for the regime. And the anti-coup forces had a reason to rejoice days later after capturing another key town on the eastern border with Thailand.
Troops surrendered in the town of Myawaddy, a strategic location where most of Myanmar's overland trade with Thailand takes place. The junta's war, ongoing since Suu Kyi was removed from the government in 2021, has forced authorities to enforce manda-tory conscription, including not only young able bodied men but women as well, amid reports of high levels of defection. Joining the anti-coup forces is an embattled group which has been fighting for self-rule since the country's independence in 1948, the Karen National Union. It has helped train fighters from all over the country.
Drones are now adding a new dimension to the conflict, but other high-tech tools are also taking over the battlefront. In the war in Ukraine artificial intelligence is increasingly being used to avoid Russian jamming, which seeks to prevent drone attacks, but also to help find targets, collecting all sorts of data including social media postings and other less publicly available information. The strike of a humanitarian convoy in Gaza however, which the Israeli military admitted had been an error, was also reportedly the result of AI searches for targets, bringing to light the imperfections and risks involved.
Drones themselves are not always ideal tools of the battlefield. According to the Wall St. Journal many US-manufactured drones sent to Ukraine malfunc-tioned due to glitches or were countered by Russian jamming, making Kyiv consider an alternative supplier: China.
The alternative is also cheaper, making it an option for one-way missions where drones are used as explosive-strapped kamizakes in a conflict that is decimating huge stockpiles of the device. China may in fact be feeding both sides of the conflict with its technology and more affordable prices. In multiple areas of the country, Myanmar has become a war of drones, notes analyst David Scott Mathieson.
"It appears that the fixed-wing drones are craft-manufactured, possibly from established kits or through 3D printing, which various resistance forces have been using for some time," he writes in the Asia Sentinel. Armed groups are assembling drones "by studying YouTube videos and sourcing online shopping options. These are then modified by young technicians from tech-savvy resistance fighters who have modified quadcopters, multi-rotor drones, and fixed-wing craft, attaching mortar rounds to bomb SAC bases, convoys, and personnel, and in a number of dramatic incidents also helicopters."
They may not have been inflicting mass damage or casualties, but are having an impact on already slipping morale in a conflict the regime has encountered numerous losses.
LE SOULAGEMENT
Après les émeutes et la rage, la liesse au Sénégal. Les incidents de l'hiver n'étaient-ils qu'une étape, fâcheuse mais nécessaire, de l'évolution de cette hésitante démocratie à saveur Yassa, qui aime se placer au bord du gouffre pour mieux se justifier?
Le lendemain de l'élection déjà le candidat du pouvoir, qui espérait au pire un second tour, avouait la défaite et félicitait l'opposant Bassirou Diomaye Faye pour sa victoire au premier tour (54%). Les partisans de ce dernier n'avaient pas attendu les résultats officiels pour manifester, avec joie cette fois, le sacre d'un personnage qui avait été en prison quelques jours plus tôt.
"En m'élisant président de la République, le peuple sénégalais a fait le choix de la rupture," déclara l'ancien inspecteur des finances publiques, protégé du populaire Ousmane Sonko, qu'il a nommé le chef de son gouvernement. Les deux rendaient récemment visite au président sortant tout sourires, comme si les derniers mois appartenaient déjà à un passé lointain digne d'un conte d'Amadou Koumba.
La victoire du candidat anti-système n'a évidemment pas plu à tout le monde, notamment les partisans de la continuité et du camp d'Amadou Ba, sous le choc. Dix-sept candidats en tout participaient à cette course - un vrai sprint en raison du calendrier écourté - à la présidence lors de ce scrutin finalement tenu un mois plus tard que prévu, mais au moment d'aller voter l'exercice s'est fait dans le calme et l'enthousiasme, des taux de participation importants étant enregistrés tandis que la paix régnait autour des bureaux de scrutin.
Selon l'analyste Babacar Ndiaye "Le Sénégal a toujours été un phare de la démocratie" et l'élection aura perpétué cette tradition. "A chaque fois que nous ayons pu craindre des moments difficiles, au bord du précipice, le peuple a pu manifester son opinion dans les urnes." Le dur chapitre de l'hiver semblerait donc déjà derrière nous, alors qu'on craignait un coup d'état constitutionnel, le genre de langage qui a mieux sa place ailleurs en Afrique.
"C'est bien parti pour que cette page (de période de trouble) se tourne bien", s'accorde à dire à France24 l'analyste Christophe Bois-bouvier, prenant note de l'"attachement des Sénégalais au droit, à la loi... c'est cela qui a permis au conseil constitutionnel de prendre le dessus" sur la volonté de reporter l'élection à la fin de l'année.
A présent, les attentes sont importantes suite à l'assermentation cette semaine du plus jeune président de l'histoire du pays alors qu'il traverse une période de chômage élevé. Promettant de rester un allié «pour tout partenaire qui s’engagera, avec [le Sénégal], dans une coopération vertueuse, respectueuse et mutuellement productive » il s'en engagé à prioriser la « baisse du coût de la vie », la « lutte contre la corruption » et la «réconciliation nationale ». Il devra le faire en forgeant des alliances car son parti n'a pas de majorité à l'assemblée.
IS MACRON WRONG ON TROOPS?
At a time NATO raises the Swedish flag at its headquarters in Brussels and closes its growing ranks to show a common front more than ever in the face of Russian aggression, did the French president go too far suggesting combat boots on the ground can't be excluded in the future if the invaders break through defense lines?
This did not fail to further enrage a Kremlin threatening to use strategic weapons if further NATO involvement follows, as Russian troops threatened to overcome Ukraine's Eastern defences. As leaks from German communications suggest foreign troops have already been aiding Ukrainians to train on their home soil, and as Canada and other countries hint sending troops for this sort of non-combat role may be future options, the West is dangerously coming close to a possible line in the sand on the Eastern front.
While Russia's actions have been catalysts for a strengthened Atlantic alliance, which added a 32nd member when traditionally neutral Sweden formally joined its ranks this month, NATO has faced a number of internal divisions among members, and this is but the latest as Emmanuel Macron refused to walk back his comments on possible ground involvement. Other NATO members distanced themselves from these suggestions, but they were not without echo.
Poland's foreign minister Radek Sikorski agreed the presence of NATO troops "is not unthinkable", deepening the debate among members at a crossroads at a time the continent is pressured to shore up defenses in case it must contend with an American partner less willing to support Ukraine after November's elections. In terms of lines in the sand they have been shifting steadily during the war.
NATO's fears sending battle tanks would trigger wider war gave way to similar thoughts about providing fighter jets and other heavy weaponry. Foreign troops on the ground are already a reality, according to the leaked German conference call which referred to the assistance of British and French personnel in Ukraine. Berlin resisted addings its troops by fear of bringing the conflict to a point of no return.
“The issue of sending European forces to help Ukraine was never one to be dismissed — it was always a possibility,” noted Phillips O'Brien a professor of strategic studies at Scotland's University of St. Andrews. “In fact it has become more of one as the USA has stepped back and withdrawn aid. Europe is now faced with a terrible dilemma — watching Ukraine potentially run out of ammunition, or stepping in and helping Ukraine more directly.”
Determined to support Kyiv, French lawmakers approved a security agreement with Ukraine last week. Paris didn't stop there. Soon after Moldova's Russian break-away enclave called for Russia's assistance, in a scenario not unlike the lead up to the invasion of Eastern Ukraine, Macron said France had the small West-leaning country's back, in a continuing act of defiance toward Russian aggression.
France signed a security agreement with Moldova whose break-away republic of Transnistria is home to some 1500 troops and a nationalist Russian minority implanted there by Josef Stalin, who had done the same in Crimea. A century after the Russian revolutionary took the helm of the great Soviet Union, the impact of his policies are very much in evidence today.
LE DRAME DE GAZA
Tôt ou tard il fallait s'attendre à ces scènes épouvantables d’innocents affamés écrasés par d'autres à Gaza qui ont depuis longtemps dépassé le point de désespoir pour se ruer sur la nourriture qu’on peut leur lancer ou leur larguer sur la tête en se sauvant, comme des bêtes, des prisonniers faméliques, ce qu'ils sont devenus après des mois de siège. Le voisin égyptien construit d'ailleurs un mur encore plus haut pour enclaver davantage un triste territoire coupé du reste du monde depuis des lunes malgré un accès, illusoir, à la mer.
L’offensive de Gaza qui n'en finit plus est allée trop loin, ça fait déjà des semaines qu’on le crie dans les rues du monde entier. La cour internationale parle même d'un risque de génocide. Après cette destruction systématique de Gaza com-ment espérer un bonvoisinage éventuel entre ces deux communautés déchirées? Comment vivre avec quelconque illusion de paix dans n’importe quel scénario d'avenir?
Trente mille morts plus tard on a presque oublié l’élément déclencheur, justificateur, si c’est bien le mot à employer. Voilà déjà des semaines que ni courant, ni aide ou eau suffisante, ne circule dans ce laboratoire de la misère humaine, plus un quartier ou une ville, mais bien un territoire entier devenu un camp de réfugié sans possibilité de refuge. Un dépotoir de débris contrôlé par des milices qu'on n'a plus la force de défier.
On n'est plus au bord de la famine, qui menacerait des centaines de milliers d'habitants, un quart de la population en tout, on y est déjà. Car les victimes, non des bombes, des tirs - bien que certains aient eu lieu lors d'une livraison de nourriture catastrophique et mortelle -, du manque de médicament ou de l'écroulement de ce qui peut rester d'infrastructure, mais de malnutrition, sont déjà comptées. Au moins une douzaine d'enfants, pourtant les premiers à devoir être nourris quand les parents passent leur tour, sont morts de faim à Gaza.
D'ailleurs alors que la mortalité infantile atteint son plus bas niveau dans le monde, plus d'enfants sont morts à Gaza depuis le début de la crise que pendant les quatre années antérieures. Cette semaine l'ONU affirmait que les restrictions à l'aide "pourraient constituer du crime de guerre". De son côté le secrétaire d'État américain Antony Blinken affirmait que "Selon la mesure la plus respectée en la matière, 100 % de la population de Gaza est dans une situation d'insécurité alimentaire grave. C'est la première fois qu'une population entière est ainsi classée".
Et quand cette misère cessera, si ce n'est pas avec la mort, ce sera sous un état de siège total, selon les plans du premier ministre israélien, qui s'attire dorénavant les reproches de ses propres alliés. Début mars, la vice-présidente américaine elle-même faisait appel au cessez-le-feu durant le ramadan, mais quelques semaines plus tard on l'attend toujours. Une frappe israélienne durant cette période importante du calendrier musulman fit encore une soixantaine de victimes, un drame presque devenu banal.
En attendant Washington multiplie les efforts, parachutant de l'aide humanitaire encore insuf-fisante et en quantité qui n'a rien à voir avec le passage d'un seul convoi humanitaire, et s'engage à construire un quai pour recevoir une aide future par la mer. Mais cela prendra des semaines à compléter. En attendant un pont maritime était en développement vers Chypre, pas pour y évacuer femmes et enfants, mais pour faire transiter l'aide humanitaire afin de retrouver une certaine humanité. Par ailleurs on levait la suspension du financement de l'Office controversé de secours et de travaux des Nations Unies pour les réfugiés de Palestine pour le Proche-Orient.
Mais rien pour changer cette souffrance continue à court et moyen terme, ou proposer quelque solution de sortie de crise. Car le premier ministre Netanyahou promet de poursuivre l'offensive à Rafah, lieu de refuge de centaines de milliers ayant été évincés ailleurs dans la bande, malgré les condamnations interna-tionales. Le président américain affirmait même que Bibi "fait plus de mal que de bien à Israël" alors que d'autres font appel à la tenue de nouvelles élections dans le pays hébreu.
Et même si l'offensive s'arrêtait maintenant, les conséquences de ces mois de bombardement feront des victimes pendant plusieurs années encore. "On estime que 45 000 bombes ont été larguées sur la bande de Gaza lors des trois premiers mois du conflit, résume Anne Héry de l'organisme Handicap International. Or, en se basant sur un taux d'échec se situant entre 9 et 14 %, il est possible que plusieurs milliers de bombes n'aient pas fonctionné comme prévu et qu'elles n'aient pas explosé à l'impact et se retrouvent disséminées dans les ruines et sur toutes les surfaces du territoire".
QUI POUR DIRIGER HAITI?
On n'avait pas tort de penser qu'Haïti était sans gouverne depuis quelques mois, mais ce n'est que la semaine dernière que le premier ministre a rendu sa démission après des semaines de pression de la part des gangs qui terrorisent cette bien torturée perle des Antilles.
A peine quelques jours en fait après la signature longuement attendue d'un accord sur l'envoi de policiers kenyans pour venir en aide à leurs collègues débordés, les évémenents en décidèrent autrement, et la mission qui devait ramener un semblant de paix était en suspens. Le premier ministre Ariel Henry annonçait son départ alors qu'un conseil présidentiel de transition se mettait à l'oeuvre afin de désigner un dirigeant intérimaire.
C'est un pacte entre les gangs qui dominent l'ile, unissant leurs forces afin de faire tomber le gouvernement, du moins ce qu'il en restait, qui a précipité la crise, suivi de l'attaque de l'aéroport - empêchant le retour du premier ministre de l'étranger - du port et de prisons, causant la libération de centaines de détenus, semant davantage la zizanie à Hispaniola où on avait déclenché l'état d'urgence.
Le secrétaire général de l'ONU Antonio Guterres a depuis fait appel à une "action urgente" de la part des états membres, mais difficile de voir comment la situation pouvait être plus urgente, l'attaque du port rendant la livraison de l'aide humanitaire presque impossible. "Si on ne peut pas avoir accès aux conteneurs Haïti va mourir de faim," estimait Laurent Uwumuremyi de l'organisme Mercy Corps. Les autorités américaines craignaient un effondrement du pouvoir imminent alors que les diplomates fuyaient le pays tandis qu'un pont aérien crucial était établi avec la République dominicaine avoisinnante.
Accusé d'être derrière ces attaques, et d'innombrables autres atrocités, Jimmy 'Barbecue' Chérizier, chef du gang G9, avait averti que sans cette démission du premier ministre le pays allait "tout droit vers une guerre civile qui conduira à un génocide". L'ancien policier de 46 ans sous le régime de sanctions de l'ONU se défend de répandre le chaos, accusant le pouvoir d'être responsable de l'écroulement de la nation.
"Ce sont les politiciens qui sont les vrais coupables. Les politiciens et oligarques corrompus ont apporté toutes les armes dans les quartiers populaires pour leur intérêt personnel mais pas pour le pays." Voilà donc depuis quelque temps qu'Haïti sombre dans le désordre perpétré par le mariage de gangs et partis politiques, notamment depuis l'assassinat du président en 2021, et l'enquête qui se poursuit sur cet événement sinistre malgré tout a porté d'étonnantes accusations, une d'elles contre la veuve du défunt chef d'état.
Henry à présent écarté, quel avenir pour ce triste pays? Washington exige une transition accélérée vers une autre gouvernance avec l'annonce prochaine d'élections. Car sur le terrain ce qu'il reste à sauver diminue peu à peu, notamment un système de santé «proche de l'effondrement», selon l'ONU, notant que «de nombreux établissements de santé sont fermés ou ont dû réduire drastiquement leurs opérations en raison d'une pénurie inquiétante de médicaments et de l'absence du personnel médical», évoquant également des pénuries de sang, d'équipements médicaux ou de lits pour traiter les blessés par balles.
THE PERILS OF LEADERSHIP
Less than two years into her mandate, Gatineau's first female mayor said she had had enough of the toxic environment, harassment, intimidation, and even death threats, and resigned. France Belisle wasn't alone a municipal organization noted as she bid her constituents goodbye, hundreds of other municipal leaders had done the same in previous months in Quebec.
Belisle herself said she regretted the "exodus" of officials, citing the resignation of the young mayor of the small community of Chapais and the temporary withdrawal of the mayor of another city, citing health reasons. These examples were all women, it turns out. And at a time all public officials face an increasing amount of threats and intimidation, women are often particularly targeted, it doesn't matter where they live.
In Mexico's presidential election front runner Claudia Sheinbaum says she was facing a flood of hate-filled messages after her phone number was leaked on social media. "What they want to do is obvious, once again their attacks are as crude as they are harmless," she said. Just north, the campaign of US Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley sought secret service protection after receiving a number of threats. "It's not going to stop me from doing what I need to do," Haley said defiantly after a campaign event.
It hasn't been a year since New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern quit her post after a period where she received numerous hate-filled and misogynistic messages. "Politicians are human," she said at the time. In the US, an attack at the home of then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which injured her husband, and threats against Michigan's governor, are among a series of attacks, notably against elected women, to have marked the divisive and tense political atmosphere leading to this year's elections.
In Europe a 2021 Finnish study of incidents targeting elected officials found many were facing "an elevated threat of abusive messages", mostly women. At the same the Nordic country was headed by Sanna Marin, then the youngest prime minister in the world, who headed a cabinet led by women and formed a coalition with other leaders who were also all women. Many among them were targeted by misogynistic abuse attacking their values, ridiculing their decision-making and questioning their ability to lead, the study found.
Studies have shown this sort of intimidation has discouraged women from joining politics in the first place, and shortened their careers when they tried. This is widespread. A few years ago a survey of female parliamentarians by the Inter-Parliamentary Union across 39 countries found "44 percent of surveyed women reported having received threats of death, rape, assault, or abduction. One fifth said they had been subjected to sexual violence."
In Canada according to the Privy Council Office the number of threats against federal ministers increased during the first years of the pandemic (2020-2), including 55 death threats made against the prime minister and 14 against his deputy minister, Chrystia Freeland, both of whom were caught in video footage fleeing turbulent protesters in the last years.
Twenty-six ministers received at least one reported death threat over this period, for a total of 110 in the period in a political environment charged up by divisions over vaccines and other sensitive issues often distorted by conspiracy theories on gun control and diversity "fueling violent extremist propaganda and incitement to violence". MPs and Senators have been equipped with mobile panic buttons as a result.
LATIN AMERICA'S CONTESTED BORDERS
It hasn't been easy trying to gather security forces for an eventual international operation to stabilize gang-infested Haiti. First the country that would lead the mission, Kenya, has hit a snag, and when the issue of sending troops came up in Belize's parliament some may have been surprised by the reaction of opposition leader Shyne Barrow, who asked: "You want to go to Haiti while at the Sarstoon (river border area) Guatemalan armed forces are undermining our soverei-gnty?"
The argument may have been a valid one considering the tiny Central American country's military is limited to about 2,000 personnel in uniform. But what it also did was raise a longstanding border dispute that festers between the two neighbors, not just since the country's independence in the 80s, but going much further back to the 19th century and British rule. Like the Venezuelan dispute with neighboring Guyana, the matter has since been raised and remains unsettled at the International Court of Justice, leaving things to be fiercely debated locally and politically exploited.
As a result cries are now rising in Belize about the lack of government will to tackle the dispute against the much larger neighbor of some 18 million (nearly 40 times its population). As a result some have resorted to launching citizen patrols of the waterways mentioned by Barrow, which have since created enough of a stir as to send Belizean soldiers man a local outpost, but without bringing the issue any closer to being resolved.
In Latin America, this is yet another border dispute raising tempers without ever inching closer to a solution. Sending soldiers to defend the Belize border is hardly new, as the British did the same just under a century ago in what is arguably one of the oldest border feuds on the continent. With Belize's independence Guatemala's territorial claims were silenced somewhat for a time, it even eventually recognized Belize's independence in the 1990s, but by the end of the decade the dispute was again being raised, sending troops back at the border.
While the matter is now at the hands of international justice, long delays, as in the case of Guyana's Essequibo region further south, have left the dispute alive to fester. In fact Guatemala's government has suggested for years that the country's maps should include Belize. "Guatemalans have been brought up to believe that part of their country was stolen by the British," tells the New York Times historian Victor Bulmer-Thomas.
For a small region the continent's umbilical cord has seen a number of territorial disputes over time. El Salvador and Honduras are two other countries which have sparred over their border, another fault-line of former British and Spanish colonial masters. This is further raising instability as the region reels with drug-related violence fueling an exodus of migrants heading north to the US border.
As for Haiti, it awaits the arrival of foreign security forces after a Nairobi tribunal halted the dispatching of 1000 Kenyan poilice officers in January. The crisis there surpasses any border issues elsewhere, having killed 5000 in 2023.
APRÈS NAVALNY
Ebranlée par la nouvelle du décès soudain de son mari, Ioulia Navalnaïa n'a eu besoin que de quelques minutes pour choisir ses mots et s'adresser aux participants d'une conférence sur la sécurité à Munich où elle était de passage. Les responsables, et on sait bien de qui il s'agit, auraient des comptes à rendre, et pour ceci elle faisait appel à la communauté internationale pour lui prêter main forte.
Cette dernière, la mort d'Alexeï pas encore confirmée, s'est empressée de condamner son décès dans un pénitentier en Sibérie, car on connaissait depuis longtemps la faiblesse physique du bagnard le plus reconnu et le refus de lui porter toute aide médicale. Cette incarcération avait été une mise à mort, car on connait le sort réservé aux opposants du régime, qu'il soit question d'anciens espions, de mutins de la dernière heure ou d'opposants politiques. La liste s'est allongée depuis la mort de Alexander Litvinenko, empoisonné au polonium en 2006.
L'an dernier c'était au tour de Yevgeny Prigozhin, le patron de Wagner, proche de Poutine jusqu'à la mutinerie de ses mercenaires. L'écrasement mystérieux de l'aéronef le transportant était dans la tradition des morts étranges d'opposants du régime à travers les années, pas immédiatement après leurs actes contre le régime, mais quelque peu plus tard, à l'abri des regards.
Journalistes, politiciens, oligarques même ou anciens espions, les victimes sont nombreuses, certains ayant presque la chance de se retrouver derrière les barreaux, d'autres dans un lit d'hôpital, comme l'ancien agent double Sergei Skripal, qui survécut à un empoisonnement, comme Navalny avait pu le faire en 2015. Malgré ce sort, c'est avec aplomb et le courage de son mari que Navalnaïa annonçait "poursuivre le combat" des opposants de Poutine, du moins ceux qu'il reste, quelques jours après le décès, mais au vu de sa sortie immédiate dans les premiers instants, cette décision pouvait paraître sans surprise. Car Moscou avait mis à mort un martyre dont le travail ne risquait pas d'être si tôt oublié.
Les critiques du régime, qu'elles en veulent au Kremlin pour l'envoi de leurs jeunes au front ou pour leur refuser le droit de parole, ou même de pleurer leurs morts sur la place publique, auraient une nouvelle incarnation de l'espoir aux heures sombres de Vladimir Poutine, alors qu'on faisait déjà le deuil de tout ce qui pouvait rester d'opposition en Russie. Les centaines incarcérées pour avoir osé poser des gerbes de fleur à la mémoire du défunt, ou pleuré les soldats envoyés au front en Ukraine, auraient une personne à suivre, un idéal à entretenir.
«Avec lui, (Poutine) a voulu tuer notre espoir, notre liberté, notre avenir, dit-elle alors, je poursuivrai l’œuvre d’Alexeï Navalny. Je continuerai pour notre pays, avec vous. Et je vous appelle tous à vous tenir près de moi, poursuit-elle. Ce n’est pas une honte de faire peu, c’est une honte de ne rien faire, c’est une honte de se laisser effrayer ». Et vaincre la peur c'est rassembler non seulement les amis d'Alexeï, ses supporters, ceux qu'il a pu inspirer, mais ceux qui en veulent à Poutine pour les sanctions, les fils au front et les frontières fermées.
En cette veille d'élection bidon, une opposition tente encore et toujours de se lever pour signaler sa présence. Navalnaïa aura-t-elle un impact de l'étranger cependant? Voilà qui reste à voir, car ces actes exigent le sacrifice ultime de rester fidèle à la nation. Navalny lui-même n'était-il pas rentré chez lui après sa récupération à l'étranger malgré tout? Mais un acte de courage, comme on sait à quoi elle s'expose déjà, peut en inspirer d'autres.
Lui-même dans une prison russe, Ilia Iachine accuse Poutine de meurtre et compare son régime à une organisation mafieuse. Les risques associés à ce genre de déclaration sont d'autant plus importants quand on est déjà sous les verroux. Et ils ne sont pas limités à la Russie de Poutine. Le voisin biélorusse n'est pas moins oppresseur et revanchard. Quelques jours après le décès de Navalny c'était au militant d'opposition biélorusse Igar Lednik de périr en prison où il purgeait une peine pour «diffamation» du président Alexandre Loukachenko.
Plus d'un millier de prisonniers politiques sont incarcérés chez celui que l'on a longtemps dénommé le dernier despote d'Europe, grand ami de Poutine. Si les méthodes de répression chez les deux voisins sont similaires, la réaction des opposants l'est aussi. L'activiste biélorusse Syarhei Tsikhanou-ski une fois en prison, c'est sa femme Sviatlanta Tsikhanou-skaïa qui a porté le flambeau de la résistance.
A présent dirigeante des forces démocratiques bélarusses et cheffe de file du cabinet de transition unie, cette dernière était elle aussi à Munich le jour où on a appris le décès de Nalvalny et partagea ses condoléances avec Navalnaïa. Comme elle, Tsikhanouskaïa s'était placée à l'avant plan après l'arrestation de son mari, obtenant un résultat étonnant lors de la présidentielle de 2020 avant de devoir s'exiler.
THE LAST COLONY?
They have been referred to as Africa's last colony, and the handful of islands of the Indian Ocean, remnants of the old British empire, don't seem like much to argue about in the general scheme of things. Spread out between Mauritius and the Maldives, their 53 square kilometers do not have much in the way of natural resources besides fish and coconuts. But their location made them a key strategic area for the British, who took control of the archipelago over a century ago, and the United States, which maintain a major air base there that proved essential during the Gulf wars. Now their status is more than ever a matter of big power geopolitics.
After decades of dispute involving their deported natives, the Chagos islands will return to Mauritius following a historic deal years in the making. It includes the atoll of Diego Garcia, where the US base is located, but the strategic port and air bomber landing pad will remain British for "an initial period" of 99 years. The deal is a "clear demonstration that through diplomacy and partnership, countries can overcome longstanding historical challenges to reach peaceful and mutually beneficial outcomes," noted US president Joe Biden. But Republican opponents disagreed, calling the move a threat to national security and a gift to rival China.
The agreement will notably include financial support to Mauritius and will begin a programme of reset-tlement on the islands, excluding the one housing the base. But some Chagossians, who have been forcefully relocated to Mauritius to the south, the Seychelles to the West, and Britain thousands of miles away, aren't entirely satisfied by the deal. Among them Frankie Bontemps told the BBC he felt "betrayed" and "angry" because "Chagossians have never been involved" in the talks leading to the agreement some hoped would "address wrongs of the past".
Among them was the claim the islands, which remained British when Mauritius obtained indepen-dence in the 1960s, were uninhabited, while in fact they were home to a "flourishing, contented and permanent population in Diego Garcia and on half a dozen other islands in the group" according to Simon Winchester in his book Outposts, some 2000 people in all, more than lived in the Falklands at the time the British Indian Ocean Territory was established. Then as now "British officials did not consult the islanders," he writes, and went on to forcibly deport them from a home they had been living in for two centuries and were forbidden to return to.
The British government eventually apologized for the forced removal and promised to hand back the islands to Mauritius when they were no longer needed. Mauritius pressed on and eventually put together an international campaign for their return, gathering the support of African countries and supporters from across the world. In 2019 the International Court of Justice issued a non-biding opinion which stated London "has an obligation to bring to an end its administration of the Chagos Archipelago as rapidly as possible and that all member states must cooperate with the United Nations to complete the decolonization of Mauritius."
Two years later the UN General Assembly approved a resolution which proclaimed this, symbolically preventing British stamps from being used there. Some British politicians also balked at the agreement, including Tory leadership candidate Tom Tugendhat, who called the deal a "shameful retreat undermining our security and leaving our allies exposed" at a time of competing rivalries with countries seeking to shake up the world order. Other British subjects, other "outposts", have also sought reassurance in light of the agreement.
Tens of thousands of kilometres away the governor of the Falkland Islands, over which blood was shed over four decades ago, sought to allay concerns in light of Buenos Aires' renewed focus on the Malvinas. Governor Alison Blake told residents: "The UK government remains committed to defending the Falkland Islanders' right of self-deter-mination, and the UK's unwavering commitment to defend UK sovereignty remains undiminished." As a shared British-US territory, Diego Garcia has not been without controversy over the years. A UN special rapporteur once said there existed credible evidence it was used as a base for ships as black sites, and a former British foreign minister apologized after two US extraordinary rendition flights refueled there. Rumor had it a number of high value detainees were held there and interrogated over the years.
At the recent UN General Assembly, Mauritius president Prithvirajsing Roopun had raised the issue of the archipelago, urging the UK to conclude an "agreement that would complete the decolonization of Mauritius and the implementation of a resettlement programme" for its former inhabitants, stressing the agreement would "protect and preserve vital security interests on Diego Garcia."
Those security interests are increasingly something regio-nal and growing global power India has had in its sights, and Delhi may have had more than a small part in the agreement. The Times of India reported that according to its sources "India had steadfastly and unwaveringly advocated for 'the need to do away with the last vestiges of colonisation' during the negotiations," pointing out the joint statement between the two countries stressed "we have enjoyed the full support and assistance of our close partners, the United States of America, and the Republic of India." India has already been increasing its influence in the Indian Ocean where it is wary of China's activities. “Illegal unauthorised and unreported Chinese fishing is a problem in the region.
China’s intrusive maritime activities in the waters around Chagos may increase,” notes Stratnews Global. And what better way to keep an eye on the rival power than by getting a foothold on Diego Garcia itself, a reminder of Delhi's growing importance as the West seeks to counter Beijing's growing influence. The strategic affairs site reports that with the agreement on Chagos "the door could now be open 'for India to utilise the operational facilities on the island of Diego Garcia if invited to do so by the UK and the US'.” Big power politics have always made those few dozen square kilometers of land in the Indian Ocean a giant strategic footprint, and what Mauritius views as this "partial" resolution of the dispute, may owe everything to the great powers game at play.
LES CLÔTURES
Qu'elle semble bien lointaine dorénavant cette Europe sans frontières, ce havre de libertés ouvert au monde toujours baigné dans l'esprit des lumières. Il faut se le dire quand environ trois décennies après les débuts de l'espace Schengen, nommé d'après ce petit patelin luxembourgeois à la croisée de la France, de la Belgique et de l'Allemagne, même la Norvège érige des barrières, comme sa soeur nordique finnoise.
Au sud, à Ceuta et Mellila, territoires espagnols en terre marocaine, ces barrières existent depuis des lunes séparant la grande Europe des contrées du Maghreb, alors qu'à l'est elles gardent cette Russie blanche de l'autre côté de la clôture de l'UE. Un peu plus coupée du monde, puisqu'elle exigera bientôt un nouveau visa électronique même à ses alliés nord-américains, l'UE retrouve ses barrières peu à peu, et ce même entre ses membres, depuis l'imposition de nouveaux contrôles à la frontière allemande.
Plus que jamais, le déplacement est une affaire de saut de haies moins de dix ans après ces vagues de réfugiés se sauvant des horreurs de la guerre en Syrie. C'est souvent contre eux que les barrières cicatrisent à nouveau le vieux continent, aux frontières du berceau de la démocratie comme à l'aurée de la nouvelle Europe de l'est, où ces miséreux ambulants peuvent servir de chair à cannon géopolitique. Et il ne s'agit plus de gestes sauvages allant contre les volontés de cette union continentale.
"J'ai pris position, il y a plusieurs années déjà, en faveur du soutien de l'Union européenne pour sécuriser les frontières extérieures de l'Union européenne, déclare le président du Conseil européen Charles Michel alors qu'il s'apprête à quitter ses fonctions. J’y suis favorable dès lors que c'est compatible avec le fait qu'il y a des points de passage sécurisés pour permettre une immigration régulière contrôlée. Je n'accepte pas que ce soient les passeurs, les trafiquants, les criminels qui décident qui a le droit de rentrer sur le sol européen".
Mais les barbelés ne se ressemblent pas tous. Des fois les "passeurs" et "trafiquants" ont une nature plutôt officielle. Alors que la clôture entre Grèce et Turquie tente de ralentir la marche des désespérés, celle qui sépare la Biélorussie de la Pologne, ou la Finlande de la Russie, veut parer la politisation de la crise migratoire par les maitres du Kremlin et leurs vassaux. Fin 2023 Helsinki fermait toutes ses frontières terrestres avec la Russie voisine, après l'arrivée de 1300 sans papiers en trois mois, un chiffre astronomique pour ce petit pays nordique qui n'était pas sans lien sans doute avec son adhésion à l'Otan quelques mois plus tôt.
Accusant Moscou de partir une "guerre hybride", Helsinki a lancé la construction de clôtures de 200 kilomètres au long de la frontière, un geste qui a suscité une certaine attention en Norvège, craignant de pareilles arrivées de masse. "Une clôture à la frontière est très intéressante dans la mesure où elle peut,non seulement agir comme dissuasif mais peut être équipée de technologie de détection pour nous alerter de l'approche de personnes à la frontière," déclarait récemment la ministre norvégienne de la justice Emilie Enger Mehl.
Une telle clôture pourrait faire ses preuves tout au long, ou dans certains secteur, du pays, note la ministre. La Norvège est membre de l'Otan, non de l'UE, mais également associée à l'ensemble Schengen. Celui-ci s'apprête d'ailleurs à imposer d'autres mesures à ses visiteurs qui n'ont pas besoin de visa.
Le système entrée-sortie de l'espace Schengen qui devait entrer en vigueur en novembre a été repoussé pour l'instant. Il exigera éventuellement l'enregistrement électronique de visiteurs de courte durée avec prise de mesures biométriques, un geste qui fera ralentir les entrées. Les Pays-bas, la France et l'Allemagne ne sont pas prêts à mettre ces mesures en place pour l'instant, donnant aux visiteurs quelques semaines supplémentaires de répit.