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Mass protests take over city streets on anniversary of Oct. 7 attacks. NPU file Photo
Too hot for the next Games?
After an initial downpour the Olympic Games took place amid majestic monuments, but often under torrid conditions, as had been the case in Tokyo where some 100 athletes had suffered from heat-related illness. This was only a sign of things to come. As the closing ceremonies took place In Paris, Athens, 2000km away, was, like most of the nearby Balkans, baking in heat, and in addition threatened by surrounding fires. Not everybody is willing to shelve millions and billions to hold the Olympics, and some are thinking they may ultimately be held in the same location in the future, making Greece a possible choice. But Greece, like many potential host countries, will eventually have to contend with even more stifling temperatures in the future, making hosting the Games, at least in the Summer, an increasingly challenging matter. Perhaps Qatar's decision to host the World Cup in the Fall was a glimpse into the future of world competitions. Just consider Los Angeles just four years down the road, already baking in the 2024 Summer marked by large California wildfires dangerously close to the metropolis. What will it be in 2028, and in the years after that? By some accounts some cities will be off limits in the future to host the Summer Games as a result of climate change. The Gulf states, so eager to host world events, especially Saudi Arabia, already have to contend with 50C temperatures. But comparatively cooler locales will also leave future outdoor athletes gasping for air in the hot season. Brisbane is to host the 2032 Summer Games, a city stifling in the Summer but saved by the fact that July is in the midst of its Winter, where temperatures are quite cooler. But any city in the Northern hemisphere is sure to face challenges anywhere in the Mediterranean or the North American East Coast according to climate science and analytics-focused nonprofit CarbonPlan. By 2050 cities in that region of the US at least would average well over temperatures recommended for hosting outdoor sport events, perhaps making Atlanta an unlikely repeat host. The same would be the case for much of eastern China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong and large parts of Southeast Asia. Rio was only able to hold the 2016 Games in August, when it is cooler. London, which has hosted the Olympics only twice, one less than Canada, could however still comfortably host, as well as cities of northern Europe in Scandinavia. They are however in smaller countries which may not be willing to bear the costly brunt of hosting the Games, unless, as with the Euro and future World Cup, it can be shared between nations. A shared bid had once been considered for the Winter Games between northern New York and Montreal, two previous hosts, a novel idea which was eventually dropped, but not forgotten. Perhaps that too was a look into the future. “Throughout much of the world, the worst heat of the year unfortunately coincides with when the Summer Olympics are typically held,” Oriana Chegwidden of CarbonPlan told CNN. “And heat could indeed pose significant risks in the countries bidding for the Olympics in 2036.” And well beyond. Among the 2036 bidders is India, eager to make its international splash, but at what cost.
Freedom under attack
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the defenders urge supporters and suppliers not to abandon them, reiterating their struggle is the free world's, and democracy's battle against the darkness of authori-tarianism. Sadly, in a year of continuing war in Eastern Europe and conflict in the Middle East, an increasing share of the world is living under some form of authoritarianism according to both Freedom House and this year' Economist Democracy Index. For the latter, this means just under 40%, while barely 45% of the planet lives under some form of democracy, and this includes only 7.8% of some 167 surveyed countries that are full democracies. The last year has brought the global democracy index further down, in fact to its lowest level since it was created in 2006, "suggesting authori-tarian regimes are becoming more entrenched and hybrid regimes are struggling to democratise." The biggest damage, by this account, has been in the Middle East and North Africa, with the flare-ups in Sudan and Gaza, certainly, but also in the Caribbean and Latin America, in regions consumed by internal wars of sorts with gangs and criminality. This ensured El Salvador's increasingly autocratic leadership a sure win in this year's elections, with others looking to emulate Bukele's strong-armed formula to tame drug gangs. The punishing method, criticized by human rights groups, has certainly dipped the level of violence in what was one of the world's most terrifying countries, but not without weakening further the state of democracy there. "His total control of government institutions means that opposition parties have little chance of challenging his re-election," the Economist Intelligence Unit's report notes. "Political reforms passed in June to reduce the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly and the number of municipalities will further constrain the chances of opposition parties to gain power," while media freedoms come under attack. The Freedom House report downgraded Ecuador from free to partly free due to the rising gang-related violence. In that annual report political rights and civil liberties were down in 52 countries and only 21 countries improved their situation. But as co-author Yana Gorokhovskaia notes: "Even if you look at it region by region, usually we are able to say that one is an outlier, but every single region registered a decline. The deterioration is pretty widespread." The report denounced efforts by incumbents "to control electoral competition, hinder their political opponents or prevent them from taking power" in countries including Cambodia, Turkey and Zimbabwe and -- unsuccessfully -- in Guatemala and Poland." There were however some bright spots as Thailand went from not free to partly free after relatively competitive elections, even if the regime prevented a young progressive whose party won the most seats from becoming prime minister. "This isn't, I would say, a full-scale victory for democracy or freedom and Thailand," nuanced Gorokhovskaia. The biggest improvement? Tiny Fiji after 2022 elections which ousted longtime ruler Frank Bainimarama, who had taken over in a coup in 2006. Since then Freedom House has noted marked progress including reduced censorship and laws to improve women's participation.
Dry cities
Media literacy resources
It's been another year of record hot temperatures and another punishing one may be in the forecast. Certainly Canadian authorities are already gearing up for what could be a summer wildfire season not unlike last year's devastating months of blazes, some of which were never fully extinguished and kept burning over the winter. Some Canadian communities have in fact already been under evacuation alerts due to wildfires. All this as the planet is struggling with water shortages the UN says are threatening half the world's population, many of them in major cities. And this drive to quench the thirst of those dehydrated millions is having another consequence on communities. Bogota, one of the world's highest cities, has started rationing water as reservoirs fell to critical levels. The capital and surrounding towns have been divided into nine zones that face rotating 24 hour water cuts as the country struggles with a drought made more severe by the year's El Nino weather phenomenon. Mayor Carlos Fernando Galán pleaded the millions under the rotating cuts to embrace “a behavioral change that is sustainable over time and guarantees that water is enough for everyone,” citing the dwindling water levels in the reservoirs supplying the city. Cities from Bengaluru, India to Cape Town have faced water restrictions over the years and struggle with supplying their residents with water, but Bogota's situation is particularly tricky due to its reliance on rainwater, tells CNN Armando Sarmiento of Bogota University. “Most cities around the world depend on aquifers for their water supplies. Bogota is different in that almost all our supply comes from surface waters like reservoirs, which are more susceptible to rain patterns,” he says. In Togo water shortages in parts of the country have made them a major electoral campaign issue, but these don't just happen in the global south either or developing countries for that matter. In North America Mexico has been facing the same emergency, leaving some neighborhoods dry for weeks at a time, and even Hawaii is said of being on the verge of catastrophe as it faces its own water crisis. As it heads to the polls this year Mexico's capital isn't only dealing with low reservoirs but leaking infrastructures, leaving its 22 million citizens struggling with often empty taps. Meanwhile in the US state where “water is life” locals are fearing a catastrophe after years of reduced rains and continued chemical leaks into water sources, especially on the island of Oahu. "We are in a water crisis, that has to be made very clear," says Wayne Tanaka, director of Sierra Club of Hawaii. "We may come to a point where we have to decide … who gets water and who doesn't." And tourism isn't helping either, the industry's needs squeezing available freshwater, not easily found despite the insular environment. Like Bogota, the island depends on rainfall, which has been in freefall as of late in some parts. "Hawaii is getting drier and drier, particularly since the 1980s," climatologist Pao-Shin Chu tells CBS. "...The consecutive dry days become longer and longer. That's very clear." And there are in fact a number of US cities facing water shortages, even if they have not all resorted to rotating cuts yet. They include San Antonio, San Diego and Las Vegas, where lavish pubic fountain displays come at a high cost. In Canada the Alberta city of Lethbridge is among a number of communities in the region to seek reductions in water usage as the province gears up for a potential drought. For now residents are being asked to curb their consumption voluntarily. Over-seas more alarming droughts-stricken urban areas include Delhi, Tokyo and Beijing, according to Seametrics, and the latter is among a number of Chinese cities facing another emergency, that of the sinking city, in part due to constant pumping of groundwater to quench the thirst of the masses on the surface amid frenzied development. The ironic consequence of this sinking is that, with rising water levels coastal cities face the possibility of catastrophic flooding in their future. An exaggeration? Excessive pumping of groundwater was a major contributor to the sinking of Indonesia's capital of over 10 million, exposing it further to surrounding waters. The accelerated sinking, while the Java Sea rises, would leave over a third of Jakarta submerged by 2050.As a result the government is moving the capital to a newly-built community in Borneo, which sadly, may cause further environmental damage to the massive island north of Java known for its rare species and ecosystems. Nusantara is expected to be inaugurated next year though it will take years to finalize. Its sprawling 256,000-hectares would mean mass deforestation in East Kalimantan province, which is home to Borneo's famed orangutans, leopards and other wildlife. But that is another tragic environmental story altogether.
Not all going up
One year on
While a number of advanced countries have sought to clamp down on immigration as of late, others are looking to welcome migrants with open arms in view of dropping birth rates. South Korea, which at 0.7% has one of the world's lowest rates and risks seeing its population drop over the next decades, is considering such a shift, ending a history of restrictive policies which have made it hard to move there for work. The East Asian country isn't the only one facing such a dilemma, neighbor Japan, currently home to the world's oldest person, has the same ageing demographics, putting the country on a path of declining population. Portugal and Hungary have turned to immigration to prevent population declines. Even globally the growth of populations is slowing down. It took twelve years for the world to grow from seven to eight billion inhabitants, a milestone reached in the Fall of 2022. It will take slightly longer, a projected 15 years, to grow to nine billion, in part due to lower fertility rates in more advanced countries, as those with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita, leaving growth to be increasingly concentrated in poorer countries, notably in sub-Saharan Africa. Oddly emigration, which is a major issue in these countries as well, is driving population shrinkage elsewhere. Eastern Europe is expected, in the decades ahead, to experience "the most significant population decline, largely due to emigration, with Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Latvia facing over 20% reductions by 2050", according to the World Population Review. Some 40 of 236 countries and territories around the world have shrinking populations, according to data compiled by the CIA's World Factbook. The Baltic states and other Eastern European countries such as Romania and Poland are listed among the fastest shrinking countries, but so are a number of islands, from the Cook islands (shrinking by some 2.2% annually) and American Samoa to Puerto Rico and Micronesia. South Korea's population, currently sitting just above 50 million, could drop by some 20 million inhabitants by 2070 without immigration, according to some projections. But down the road no country faces a population decline like the nation which was until recently the most populated on Earth. And it's desperate to try to do something about it. After decades of limiting couples to a single child, China is seeing its population steadily decline, and the drop could accelerate to catastrophic levels. According to some studies its 1.4 billion-plus population could be more than halved before the end of the century if Beijing doesn't manage to radically change this mindset and put in place policies encouraging couples to have more children, in a complete reversal of decades of one-child policy, which it dropped in 2016. Five years later, in a complete reversal, it espoused a three-child policy, promoting tax and other incentives. Last year it lost two million citizens, the second consecutive year of decline.
One year after the terror attack which relaunched hostilities between Hamas and Israel the conflict has expanded as Israeli troops conducted limited ground incursions into neighboring Lebanon to root out Hezbollah all the while the Jewish state considered how to respond to Iran's latest rocket attack.
As embattled prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the UN Secuity Council, a day after having been accused of genocide by the Palestinian leader, the IDF targeted Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, killing leader Hassan Nasrallah, who hadn't been seen in public in years. The death of the leader who had had such a sweeping influence in the region was felt all the way in Tehran, where supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was moved to a secure location as the regime plotted its reaction.
An Iranian commander was also killed in the attack, showing the close ties between Iran and the terrorist group based in Lebanon. Tehran, which earlier this year had targeted Israeli territory for the first time, promptly retaliated by sending nearly 200 rockets towards Israel, causing little damage and few injuries. It's not the first time such a clash shakes the region, even strikes by the Islamic Republic are not unexpected, an indication itself of the new more volatile realities one year after the October 7 attacks.
Less than twenty years ago, a similar conflict with Hezbollah also left thousands on the move in an attempt to flee the hostilities. 2006 was also the year Hamas gained power in elections in Gaza, forever changing the relationship with its neighbor. The cedar nation has seen little peace since, rocked by a financial crisis and more recently the blast of the port of Beirut, which years later may create complications in any effort to evacuate the capital's citizens and expats.
Thousands were trying to move away from the violence, leaving some in the path of strikes as Israel vowed to root out the evil which had been sending rockets into its territory despite calls by allies for a ceasefire. None seemed likely before new hostilities as Iran warned the targeting of its allies in southern Beirut constituted a game-changing escalation that will “bring its perpetrator an appropriate punishment.”
Nasrallah had led Hezbollah since 1992 when former leader Abbas-al-Musawi was killed by an Israeli helicopter strike. Instead of bringing and end to threats from southern Lebanon the killing unleashed a torrent of attacks and bombings, not only in Israel, which was targeted by rocket attacks, but in Turkey and most notably Argentina, where the bombing of the Israeli embassy killed 29 people.
Hezbollah has extended its reach and strengthened ties with Iran since, as shown in the response to Israel's ground incursion. The 1992 killing showed the impact of such clashes can be more than regional, but also that the group can survive decapitation attempts. Over the last year however Israel has methodically taken out a number of Hezbollah commanders, leaving the group depleted and unable to respond to Nasrallah's assassination in Beirut. Still some fear an Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon may give Hezbollah's recruitment a boost, the group maintaining a large arsenal of rockets to target Israel in the weeks ahead.
VISIT FROM THE TROPICS
Their buzzing is the annoying soundtrack of summer evenings spent outdoors and their bite an itchy discomfort in normal times. But in the course of history mosquitoes have proven the deadliest animal known to man, resulting in about a million deaths worldwide, spreading a number of infections from Malaria to Zika.
The development of the Panama Canal alone was marked by such a heavy human toll due to mosquito-borne infections as man attempted to tame the jungles of the Central American country that intial French efforts had to be abandoned. And while taking precautions against these flying hazards is usually something for travellers heading to rural areas of the tropical world to consider, that may be about to change.
With climate change countries further north, and especially their urban settings, are becoming new areas of concern. This was hardly more apparent than following a series of incidents over the summer which saw a Canadian citizen die of the extremely rare mosquito-borne Eastern equine encephalitis, while further south former top infectious diseases expert Dr. Anthony Fauci contracted another virus carried by mosquitoes, the West Nile virus.
EEE had even prompted officials in Massachusetts to take the extreme measures of shutting down public parks in some towns where the rare but deadly virus had been detected. Fewer people now think these decisions were exaggerated in view of the potential threat posed.
Health officials in Canada's capital are now dispensing the sort of health advice more familiar to travellers heading for tropical destinations known for their health risks. While vaccines do exist for some mosquito-borne infections such as the chikungunya virus, yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis and dengue, West Nile Virus, the most common of these infections in the US, and EEE are best avoided by covering up, wearing deet, avoiding outdoor activities when mosquitoes are out and getting rid of standing water that facilitates breeding.
The latter may not always seem that easy after a summer season marked by heavy rains in some parts, which followed a particularly warm winter that allowed mosquitoes to multiply sooner. "While it's true that so few mosquitoes are infected, the higher number of mosquitoes makes it more likely that such an encounter will happen," told TIME Dr. Photini Sinnis of the Malaria Research Institute at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. "Mosquito populations are really climate-driven and habitat-driven."
And changing climates mean some infections previously found in tropical climates may now make their way north to more temperate environments. Battles against those invaders are also taking place in the form of genetic modifications of mosquitoes or infecting them with a virus-killing bacteria, as tested in parts of Southeast Asia and Australia to fight the spread of dengue. Now these efforts were sure to be emulated in countries of the northern hemisphere dealing with a new stinging reality, as global warming extends the dangers posed by mosquitoes, taking new dimensions even in areas they were known to spread.
LÉGERS DÉLAIS
Il n'y a nul doute, le développement du chemin de fer trans-canadien d'un océan à l'autre a joué un rôle capital dans l'unification et la croissance du pays, mais qu'en est-il de l'état de ce parcours de fer au premier quart du XXIe siècle? Alors que le court lock-out du fret par rail a eu un impact important au niveau du commerce national et nord-américain, l'immobilisation d'un train dans un corridor essentiel de l'est du pays a rappelé les retards à combler au niveau passager dans ce triste réseau bien maigrichon.
Car les tracés de fer sont bien rares à travers cette étendue de 10 millions de kilomètres carrés, étant plutôt concentrés dans le centre du pays. Et pourtant c'est là qu'ont été bloqués des passagers d'un train assurant la liaison entre Québec et Montréal, la plus importante dans la province, pendant 10 heures lors de la haute saison touristique. Pas de quoi impressionner ces visiteurs asiatiques et européens dont les nations roulent sur lignes à haute vitesse depuis des lunes. Le Canada est le seul pays du G7 à ne pas avoir de telles lignes, malgré les décennies de projets dans ce sens, laissés au stade de rêve.
En ce moment les futurs plans parlent de réseau à haute fréquence plutôt qu'à haute vitesse. Le train VIA qui a fait la manchette était pourtant dernier cri, dans le sens canadien du terme, soit un engin vieux de quelques années, un "bolide" pouvant atteindre presque 200km par heure... C'est plutôt loin des 460 km-heure du maghlev assurant la liaison Pudong-Shanghai ou des Shinkanzen nippons. La Chine a vite rattrapé son retard et trône dorénavant au classement mondial avec 40,000 kilomètres de rails à haute vitesse.
Ils ne sont pas les seuls, alors que l'Europe est couverte de lignes à TGVs le continent asiatique étend ses réseaux d'Indonésie en Thailande. Pendant ce temps cet été un sondage sur le corridor central Québec-Toronto laissait paraitre cette faim indubitable pour des lignes à grande vitesse, laissant de côté les rails actuels où les trains à marchandise ont d'ailleurs la priorité, car il s'agit des mêmes parcours. Ceci a posé problème pour plusieurs passagers de trains de banlieue, privés de service lors du lock-out.
Déjà faut-il s'étonner du manque de connections au niveau national, le plus flagrant empêchant les deux métropoles de l'Alberta d'être liées par un chemin de fer, puisque le trans-canadien passe uniquement par Edmonton avant de poursuivre son chemin dans les Rocheuses. Evidemment celui-ci est de toute beauté, mais il faut croire que le développement du réseau passager au pays a été plutôt limité depuis la pose du dernier piton en Colombie-britannique, un événement dont le 140e arriversaire sera célébré l'an prochain.
Quatre des sept grandes lignes au pays sont de simples "routes aventures panoramiques". De nombreux rails ne servent qu'au loisir, reliant des destinations jadis desservies par les grandes lignes, comme ce Southern Prairie Railway faisant quelques kilomètres à partir de Régina, ville-reine abandonnée malgré ses liens royaux. Calgary et Régina ont cessé d'être desservies avec le temps, une décision qui a semé la consternation. Des projets provinciaux sont pourtant en branle pour relier les villes albertaines, un projet dont une étude serait preparée l'an prochain en vue d'une mise en service... dans les années 40 (ce qui parait aussi lointain qu'ancien).
C'est un retour en arrière puisque Calgary et Edmonton ont déjà été reliées par le rail. D'autres tronçons disparus s'étendaient sur l'ile de Vancouver, puis à Prince Albert dans le centre du pays et à Gaspé dans l'est. Ce pays trop grand, trop vide, est saupoudré de petites gares abandonnées depuis des lunes, dans des communautés comme Killaloe ou au centre d'Owen Sound en Ontario, ou à Wakefield au Québec encore, souvent converties en boutiques, d'où ne partent que des trains fantômes aussi mobiles que le VIA 622 pris entre Montréal et Québec a pu l'être pendant ces longues heures.
Alors que la ligne de Winnipeg, coeur du pays, vers Churchill dans le nord, existe toujours, elle a connu des hics lors des dernières années qui ont fait souffrir les habitants de cette petite communauté du nord connue pour ses ours polaires. Ceci dit des projets de train à haute fréquence, diminuant le trajet entre Montréal et Toronto à moins de quatre heures, sont bel et bien en développement nous rassure-t-on, mais pas pour la première fois.
Ces 1000 kilomètres et fer relieraient Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montréal, Trois-Rivières et Québec à partir du milieu des années 30. Raison principale de cette accélération? La fin du partage des lignes avec le transport de fret. Ca c'est le point de départ, et ce n'est pas l'espace qui manque. Pourtant ce partage des rails n'avait rien à faire avec le calvaire du train 622, qui n'a pas seulement retardé les passagers d'une demi-journée, mais les a privé d'eau et d'électricité (donc d'air climatisé) pendant plus d'une heure.
Y avait-il une armée d'employés alignés, la tête baissée implorant le pardon, à leur débarquement, comme il se produit au Japon après un bref retard? Non mais le ministre du transport allait tout de même demander des comptes à la compagnie ferroviaire et exiger des changements. «Au-delà de cet incident... c’est extrêmement révélateur de la désuétude du service ferroviaire de passagers au Québec et Canada,» a fait remarquer le chef du Bloc québécois Yves Francois-Blanchet.
La peur d'une grève à Air Canada et la fin du service de bus Greyhound ont également mis en évidence le manque d'alternatives pour voyager au pays. Puis le projet haute vitesse oublie l'ouest du pays, note le journaliste Doug Todd qui a déjà travaillé dans le milieu ferroviaire. Ce dernier n'en revient pas qu'on utilise encore les locomotives de son époque, contruites en 1950. «C'est ridicule, écrit-il, et pas seulement du point de vue entretien et sécurité.» Puis un projet d'envergure à la taille du pays pourrait soigner bien des maux: «A une époque où les divisions sont importantes, ce serait une excellente manière de tisser de nouveaux liens entre les gens à travers ce magnifique pays.» Se rapprocher de l'esprit unificateur de 1885.
THE TERROR THAT LINGERS
Governments have come and gone, all promising ruthless crackdowns on Islamist militants in the north of Nigeria, but little has changed. Ten years after the kidnapping of over 200 girls from a school in Chibok in the country's restless Borno state, Boko Haram is still spreading its unforgiving dose of violence and terror against innocent civilians, killing up to a 100 in Mafa when men on motorbikes stormed into town and attacked a local market.
Days later 200 escaped a prison in Maiduguri, east of Mafa, when flood waters destroyed a wall, freeing Boko Haram commanders among them, promising more pain for the millions already exposed to the group's senseless violence, which has jumped borders into neighboring Cameroon, Chad, and Niger.
"Despite intensified offensives by the Nigerian military, the movement and its offshoot — the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) — have persisted as a significant threat to Nigeria and its neighboring states in the Lake Chad region," summarized a report by Armed Conflict Location & Event Data this Spring. "The audacious attacks perpetrated by both factions on civilians and security posts, coupled with the adverse effects of their activities on vulnerable populations, underscore their adaptability and resilience in the face of sustained national and regional military campaigns by the Lake Chad Basin Multinational Joint Task Force over the past decade."
The Task Force is comprised of some 10000 troops from half a dozen countries including Nigeria, Cameroon and Benin, with the support of the US and EU, It's mandate is to "checkmate trans-border armed banditry around the general area of Lake Chad Basin" established three decades ago, a goal with limited success however.
While the terror organization lost some territory after the initial response of the Nigerian military and its partners following the Chibok incident, which drew global attention to the crisis, it remains as dangerous as ever after it split up into two groups in 2016, which have engaged in deadly clashes since. Militant activity, when curtailed in the restive northeast of the country, has been carried out in areas of the northwest, taking more victims.
One of the splinter groups, the Islamic State of West Africa Province, has in fact over time evolved into "an alternative to the state" in some areas according to the report, as Islamist groups have attempted to do elsewhere. "This strategy aims to disrupt the civil-military relationship between government security forces and affected communities in the region. The group provides security, services, and livelihoods in communities it controls, allowing it to sustain itself within a competitive ecosystem of contested governance."
The Task Force has attempted to strike back with measures of its own including "community-based quick-impact projects... instrumental in delivering medical supplies and treatment to communities in areas controlled by Boko Haram." Observers agree security efforts have registered some success after the arrest and killing of a number of Boko Haram’s foot soldiers and key commanders, as well as the surrendering of "over 100,000 Boko Haram associates and combatants" but the lack of funds and disputes involving their disbursement have hampered some of the security efforts. While the Nigerian government has been able to rescue 20 of the missing Chibok girls over time, over 90 girls remain missing, with some feared dead.
FORGOTTEN LESSONS
For years the West largely ignored trouble brewing in the heart of Africa. After all to some it seemed little but more of the same, war and disease. Then suddenly it became hard to ignore. But it didn't necessarily have to happen that way The latest global health emergency hasn't exactly caught the world by surprise.
The spread of Mpox was well documented in the Democratic Republic of Congo in recent years and was the subject of a health emergency two years ago all the while doses of vaccines sat stockpiled in labs across the world. The development of a new more potent variant of the virus however, which has trickled beyond Africa with cases coming to light in Sweden and Thailand, has once more sounded the alarm of an urgency which officials hope will lead to increased vigilance and mobilisation. Perhaps more permanent this time.
In China and other countries this has meant screening arrivals for Mpox, a throwback to the pandemics of the past whose lessons were perhaps too quickly forgotten. While the world may not be on the verge of a similar pandemic, observers say the fact Mpox has once more been declared a global health emergency reflects failures to learn from the lessons of the coronavirus, including the need for constant surveillance and preparation while addressing red tape and inequities. Of course there have been plenty of reasons to be distracted in the last few years.
Wars from the Middle East to Ukraine meant immediate focus lied elsewhere, while Kinshasa itself was struggling with domestic instability as a rebellion raged within its borders, leaving many areas of the country, like the health crisis itself, out of control. The region most seriously affected by the outbreak is experiencing a humanitarian crisis which has displaced nearly 2 million people fleeing years of conflict.
An alarming rise of cases came to light in the eastern part of the country, notably carried by people residing in refugee camps, and it took little time before cases leapt over the borders to neighboring Burundi, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. Unfortunately the violence and insurgency causing the migration crisis has not abated, as fighting continued between M23 rebels, the West accused Rwanda of backing, and government troops despite recent efforts to settle the dispute.
Some 16,000 cases were reported in South Kivu, where fighting has been raging, and many fear that's only the tip of the iceberg considering communications issues and lack of testing, leaving many cases of infection going unreported. When the authorities weren't themselves distracted by armed conflict, they lacked the resources, and specifically vaccines, to mitigate the disaster, allowing Mpox to circulate and mutate, even if current vaccines are said of being effective against different variants of Mpox.
But the closer one gets to the most affected zones, the less likely authorities have access to the vaccine, which is available in some 70 countries outside the region and has been successful helping eradicate previous outbreaks, ending the emergency in place until last year, though this may have been premature. The DRC had as of early September still no doses of vaccine, and while the first shipments were awaited in Africa this week from as far away as the United States, they would be just a small trickle considering some 10 million may be needed.
"This is a major issue," underscored Jean Kaseya of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said it managed to secure 1 million doses just recently but decried that the continent only managed to obtain 10% of the estimated $245 million it needed to tackle the outbreak. "We need to have vaccines and it is a major challenge." Something that goes without saying years into what has been a festering health crisis.
Spain and Germany soon joined in committing to send tens of thousands of doses but other countries stayed silent despite sitting on mountains of reserves, drawing criticism. Observers were particularly outraged Africa was still having so much trouble accessing a vaccine after having had similar difficulties obtaining covid shots four years ago, though at the time the continent was less stricken by that virus than others.
The latest Mpox wave is particularly affecting young people, a concern considering the large share of the population in that age group in the DRC. "Mpox isn't the new covid-19... We already know a lot about clade II, we have to learn more about clade I," said the World Health Organization's Hans Kluge. "So will we choose to put the systems in place to control and eliminate Mpox globally? Or will we enter another cycle of panic and neglect? How we respond now and in the years to come will prove a critical test."
France jumped into action opening over 230 vaccination sites. But the WHO itself has come under criticism for taking until late Summer to start the process to make the vaccine available to poorer countries, something observers said should have been done much sooner. "The processes and funding for diagnostics for Mpox should have started a few years ago," told Reuters Ayoade Alakija, who chairs a global health partnership. "It is a matter of what the world considers to be a priority" and it too often neglects "diseases that primarily affect black and brown people."
But the WHO says it lacked the data needed to start the process earlier and in the mean time urged countries to donate some of their stockpiles. Some fear lack of confidence in the response to such international crises may only encourage nations to hang on to their vaccine stockpiles rather than donate portions of them, in case the outbreaks reach their shores.
A L'ATTAQUE
Depuis plus de deux ans les scènes se répètent. Alors que la menace d'une invasion armée approche les milices évacuent les communautés en bordure de la frontière afin d'éviter de nouvelles victimes civiles dans un conflit russo-ukrainien où elles ont été nombreuses, les signatures de crimes de guerre.
Mais en août ces images provenaient du côté russe, un territoire qui subissait sa première invasion depuis la seconde guerre mondiale, donc, depuis le développement de l'arme nucléaire. En prévision d'éventuels pourparlers de paix, Kiev lançait non pas une contre-offensive mais une incursion qui a surpris les maîtres du Kremlin. Il s'agissait après tout des mêmes stratèges qui avaient anticipé une victoire éclair sur ce plus petit pays slave à l'ouest, trop à l'ouest, de la patrie.
Depuis quelques temps déjà les alliés de Volodymyr Zelensky lui permettent, ancien tabou, de se servir de certaines de leurs armes à l'intérieur du territoire russe, et celles-ci, qu'il s'agisse de tanks, missiles ou drones, multiplient leurs incursions, subjugant des centaines de précieux kilomètres carrés dans la région de Koursk, elle qui partage le nom d'un sous-marin qui a connu une fin tragique il y a presque un quart de siècle.
Après les échanges de prisonniers, comme ceux de fin août, Moscou serait-elle prête à échanger des terres si les tirs venaient bien un jour à cesser? C'est le calcul du président ukrainien qui redoute des condition de paix désavan-tageuses au final. Evidemment ce détournement de troupes rend d'autres régions du pays plus vulnérables, et l'opération permet à Poutine de justifier ses propres attaques à titre de gestes défensifs.
Ceci dit les deux pays sont au bord de l'épuisement, même si Kiev accueillait favorablement l'arrivée des premiers avions de chasse livrés par ses alliés, qui n'ont pas tardé à se mettre en action. Les nouvelles recrues dans chaque camp ont un entrainement insuffisant puis hésitent et parfois refusent même de tirer, pris de panique. Puis alors que l'Ukraine disait atteindre ses objectifs de créer une zone tampon, la Russie déclarait elle aussi étendre son contrôle, notamment dans la région de Donetsk qui ne connait que la guerre depuis des années.
L'assaut ukrainien constitue "la troisième humiliation militaire" de Poutine depuis le début du conflit, estime l'Atlantic Council. Evidemment ce geste n'est pas sans craindre une escalade du conflit, qui a déjà dépassé les soi-disant lignes rouges du maitre du Kremlin. Mais celles-ci perdent-elles alors leur sens? Depuis Moscou riposte avec un barrage de drones et de missiles de tous genres, notamment iraniens, et avertis-sait les Américains qu'ils risquaient une troisième guerre mondiale en permettant l'Ukraine de viser si loin dans son territoire.
L'Ukraine vient-elle de prendre l'initiative après des années à la défensive? L'impact sera important dans le camp adverse, selon l'analyste Brian Whitmore: "L'état russe s'apparente dorénavant à un syndicat du crime organisé, écrit-il. Et le moment le plus destabilisant pour tout syndicat criminel se présente quand le caïd parait faible." L'ancien premier ministre suédois Carl Bildt pour sa part estime que Poutine, qui parfois feint de caresser ses ogives nucléaires, est tout simplement "ébranlé" par cette offensive qui vient remonter "le moral et la détermination" en Ukraine.
D'autres en sont moins sûrs, l'analyste Emma Ashford reste "sceptique" quant à l'impact de cette offensive, et si elle procurera réellement "un avantage politique". Elle aura du moins pu faire oublier les espoirs déçus de l'an dernier, et mis un terme à l'inévitabilité d'une impasse qui laissait la Russie avec l'avantage de nouveaux gains territoriaux, après ceux de la Crimée il y a dix ans. "Les Ukrainiens remboursent toujour leurs dettes. Et quiconque souhaite le malheur sur notre terre le trouvera chez lui avec les intérêts, prononcera le président Zelensky. Quinconque cherche à semer le mal sur notre terre en récoltera les fruits sur son propre territoire."
ENCORE PARMI NOUS
Les Jeux de Paris n'étaient certainement pas comme ceux de Tokyo avec leurs estrades vides et mesures de protection extrêmes, ce qui n'a pas empêché le covid de s'inviter à la compétition. Une quarantaine d'athlètes auraient été infectés durant les Jeux, parmi eux l'Américain Noah Lynes, champion du 100m qui arrive, épuisé, 3e au 200m avant de s'écrouler dans une chaise roulante.
Il ne s'agissait pas du seul environnement où le virus a fait son retour, de Washington à Ottawa jusqu'au Pacifique il a rappelé son existence, comptant parmi ses victimes le président des Etats-Unis, dont l'épisode a sans doute précipité la fin de sa candidature. Plus au nord la capitale canadienne, comme d'autres communautés, enregistrait de nouveau pics d'infection, assez pour que l'on retrouve le port du masque d'usage dans plusieurs commerces, où les affiches de distanciation qui peuvent exister datent d'il y a quelques années.
Aux caisses de plusieurs établissements des employés favorisent le port du masque, notamment par souci pour leur clientèle plus âgée, elle aussi favorisant l'utilisation de masques hygiéniques. Mais les athlètes de haut niveau ne sont pas plus épargnés, plusieurs membres de l'équipe australienne féminine de water-polo ont été écartées de la compétition en raison de tests positifs, ce qui n'a pas empêché la formation de multiplier les victoires et d'éventuellement se retrouver en grande finale. Certes le virus n'a plus la même urgence que dans le passé, mais le Centers for Disease Control américain sonnait pourtant l'alarme de sa propagation, notamment quelques jours avant le diagnostic du président américain.
"Nous sommes dans une période où le covid circule toujours, nous voyons une nouvelle augmentation des cas, note Lucia Mullen de l'OMS, et nous sous-rapportons sans doute les niveaux. Plusieurs pays ont réduit leurs mesures de surveillance." Il s'agit notamment du cas en Ontario, où les boites de tests de dépistage gratuits ne sont plus autant disponibles publique-ment.
La province a également décidé de mettre fin à son analyse des eaux usées, elle qui a pourtant permis non seulement de sonner l'alarme sur les pointes d'infection de covid, mais qui permettait également de surveiller le développement d'autres incidents sanitaires. Le monde traverse un pic de contagion, avec des taux de positivité de covid de plus de 10% en général (plus de 20% en Europe) chose que certains croyaient improbable en plein été, comme si la canicule pouvait embraser les branches du virus comme elle a pu griller les campagnes ravagées par les feux de forêt d'Amérique du nord jusqu'en Grèce cet été.
"Nous sommes en pleine vague estivale, estime le docteur Andrew Pinto the St Michael's à Toronto. Une des choses uniques du covid est qu'il nous surprend comme peu d'autres pathogènes respiratoires. Il se répand même malgré l'absence d'air très froid et sec avec beaucoup de personnes à l'intérieur, ce que l'on constate normalement avec d'autres pathogènes comme l'influenza". Mais les canicules de l'été, de plus en plus fréquentes, font aussi en sorte que la population se réfugie dans des lieux climatisés, retrouvant un environnement semblable, et l'immunité des dernières années a progressivement été réduite sans nouvelle dose de vaccin, dont l'accès est recommandé cet automne chez les populations plus à risque.
Entre temps les chiffres sont à la hausse et ce rhume que vous trainez cet été est sans doute une version moins sévère du covid, note Pinto, d'où l'importance de ne pas exposer des personnes plus faibles ou âgées à votre condition. La traque du virus n'est pas la seule chose qui fait regretter l'abandon d'outils comme le fait l'Ontario. L'analyse des égoûts ontarienne, un modèle imité à travers le monde qui a coûté environ 10 à 15 millions de dollars par année, a servi de système d'alerte surveillé par des experts d'une douzaine d'universités canadiennes alarmés de perdre un outil clé alors que le domaine de la santé au pays croûle sous diverses pressions, notamment au Québec et en Ontario, et pourrait le faire davantage cet automne.
"Ca n'a pas de sens de l'annuler à ce stade, explique au Globe & Mail Eric Arts virologue à l'université Western. Ca ne vous avertit pas avant l'éclosion des cas mais de covid, mais avant les hospitalisations, ce qui est ce qui compte." Des analystes estiment également que l'analyse des eau usées donne un aperçu des pointes des cas de virus respiratoires touchant les enfants 12 jours à l'avance. Ces coupures surviennent également alors que le système de santé fait face à de nouvelles menaces dont la grippe aviaire H1N5 et la variole du singe, ou mpox, déclarée urgence de santé publique internationale.
"L'analyse des eaux usées permet notamment de surveiller l'émergence de plusieurs pathogènes à la fois, rapidement et à moindre coût", résume Fiona Brinkman de l'Université Simon Fraser, évitant une facture sanitaire plus salée en pleine explosion de cas. Pendant ce temps le gouvernement canadien mettait à jour cet été son document aux entreprises intitulé Eclosions de grippe et de maladies infectieuses - Plan de continuité des opérations, afin de permettre au privé de se préparer à toute éventualité.
Au moins une équipe à Paris avait anticipé la vague de covid que l'on a rencontré. Les Pays-bas ont formellement interdit les embrassades et les poignées de mains lors des compétitions, applicant une politique du "fist bump" stricte pour éviter les infections. Maintenant reste à revoir cette décision de nager dans la Seine, qui a eu ses propres conséquences...
STUDENT POWER
One of South Asia's most populous countries was hardly at peace this winter when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh's founding father, once listed by Forbes as one of the world's 100 most powerful women, won her fourth term. Her sweeping victory came as the opposition, which suspected the vote would not be free or fair, boycotted the poll that eventually netted her Awami league 222 of 300 parliamentary seats.
There was grumbling but hardly worrisome dissent despite the 76-year-old's growing autocratic tendencies, who to her credit had led the country through years of economic growth, enabling Bangladesh to make impressive headways in health, education, and women’s employment. But that dissent would explode months after that contested re-election when students protested against a controversial quota system for much-prized government jobs that they said favored supporters of the regime. In mid-July those autocratic tendencies were plain to see when protests became more intense amid curfews and shoot-to-kill orders.
By the end of the month over 100 had been killed, but the protests only picked up steam despite a decision by the Supreme Court to reduce the quotas of these job allocations. Demonstrators demanded an investigation into the crackdown and called for Hasina's head, defying the curfews and marching, despite an internet blackout, in great numbers into the center of Dhaka as the death toll reached 300. Instead of cracking down further, the military stood down and announced Hasina had fled the country as officials consulted with the president on the formation of an interim government, sparking nation-wide celebrations.
The soldiers appealed for calm as protesters ransacked Hasini's quarters, and said it would "investigate the killings and punish those responsible." Parliament was suspended and student groups warned they would not accept a military-run government. The crisis occurs as the country suffers from economic crisis and high unemployment amid criticism by rights groups of growing repression and crack downs on dissent by the regime.
"These are the heroes and heroines," said civil society activist Badiul Majumdar of the protesters. "We had a crazy dictator. What we are now concerned about is who will benefit from this revolution? And that, in fact, is what we are watching - a revolution." Or at very least a strong case of people power. Hours after the prime minister fled Bangladesh’s president ordered the release of jailed former prime minister and ailing opposition leader Khaleda Zia, as the country prepared for the transition before elections are eventually held to replace the leadership.
The military also said it was releasing some 2,000 people arrested during the protests. The brass has a “very tough job ahead,” said Irene Khan, a UN special rapporteur. “We are all hoping that the transition would be peaceful and that there will be accountability for all the human rights violations that have taken place.” In the mean time the soldiers turned to Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus to head the interim government. He founded the prize-winning Grameen Bank which provides microcredits, offering small loans to poor people who have no collateral. Drawing from civil society, his interim government will help the country on the path to peace and elections, Yunus vowed. A statement citizens hope will ring true amid calls for unity.
UN AIR FAMILIER
L'an prochain les Nord-américains devront obtenir une autorisation électronique pour visiter la vieille Europe, mais à l'heure actuelle il y existe un territoire européen que les Canadiens peuvent visiter sans même avoir de passeport. Peut-être ne faut-il pas tant s'en étonner.
En arrivant sur place le paysage peut paraitre familier à première vue. Des maisons ont un filet de hockey sur leur terrain, la patinoire municipale est en plein centre-ville et un Home Hardware et Rona pas très loin. Des voitures circulent même avec des plaques de Terre-Neuve. Alors que les Américains viennent au Québec pour y faire une expérience plus européenne près de chez eux, les Canadiens peuvent prendre un court vol, ou faire un bref trajet en traversier, pour rendre visite aux cousins français de St Pierre et Miquelon.
Une pièce d'identité du gouvernement avec photo suffit et le dollar canadien y est même le bienvenu dans certains commerces. Ce dernier bastion français en Amérique du nord l'est resté malgré multe occupations britanniques entre 1713 et 1816, année où l'archipel a finalement pu garder son pavillon tricolore. Il s'agit d'une terre d'exception, la devise locale, à plusieurs égards. On peut y effectuer un retour dans le temps, littéralement.
Certes le paysage est plus rural et relaxant, et certains lieux, comme l'Hôtel Robert, nous renvoient même à un passé prohibitinniste où St Pierre servait de base aux opérations d'Al Capone, qui y a séjourné. Mais pour effectuer un véritable retour dans le temps prenez le traversier de St Pierre vers Fortune, à Terre Neuve. Lors de ce passage vers l'est et vous... gagnez une précieuse demi-heure grâce à un fuseau horaire drôlement dessiné qui place l'archipel à l'heure du Groenland. Ou est-ce alors Terre-Neuve qui fait figure d'exception?
Ce n'est pas tout, alors qu'on se rôtit à Halifax sur la côte est canadienne cet été, les îles au sud-ouest de Terre-neuve peuvent exiger le port du pull en raison de températures insulaires beaucoup plus fraiches. Ces îles de quelques 6000 habitants ont bien souffert lors de l'écroulement de l'industrie de la pêche qui assurait leur survie, se tournant alors vers le tourisme; ce secteur pourrait-il profiter de ces températures plus clémentes durant la saison des grandes chaleurs et devenir une destination fraicheur?
C'est le genre de promotion que la ville de San Francisco a notamment développé, elle qui depuis un certain temps a besoin de redorer son blazon et profite de températures plus fraiches dans un état grillé par les feux de forêts et les records de température. Certes le mercure a grimpé dans ces iles ces dernières années, mais les pics atteignent des 25C bien plus agréables que ceux du continent.
Reste à gérer le flux de ces touristes, qui arrivent entre autre par bateau de croisière, créant des pointes de visiteurs pendant la journée qui ne passent pas la nuit en ville. Voilà qui permet aux résidents de reprendre entre eux leur train de vie de fêtes de quartier, de rassemblements de transats et de parties de pétanque ou de pelote basquaise dans l'intimité.
A NEW RACE
America's once discrete vice president has been thrust into the spotlight with the historic decision by an incumbent president to step aside and end his campaign, a stark contrast with the aftermath of the 2020 election marked by a defeated president's reluc-tance to relinquish the White House.
Now Kamala Harris, just confirmed as the Democratic nominee, could once more make history, this time by becoming the first female president of the United States. Of course we've already been here before. Lyndon Johnson had stepped aside in the 1968 presidential race, which did not prevent the Democrats in their chaotic state from losing the White House, even if the switch was done with much more time to spare. And the current Republican nominee has defeated a female opponent seeking to shatter the glass ceiling just eight years ago, and may do so yet again.
But the Sunday afternoon surprise of Joe Biden's decision's to step aside sets the stage for an entirely new narrative in this already long and eventful presidential race, one that is no longer consumed by the age of the candidates. It doesn't make it any more pleasant to follow however as attacks on Harris' gender and race, both in social media and from her opponent, started almost immediately.
Donald Trump, who had questioned Obama's birth certificate, wasted no time turning his sights on his opponent's origins, claiming Harris, born to Indian and Jamaican parents, had misled voters about her race and eventually "turned Black" over the years. "Somebody should look into that," he said in a TV interview to a room full of stunned Black journalists. Seen as a sign of growing panic by some, it was only the latest outrageous statement uttered by the Republican nominee after he had told a gathering of Christian supporters they "won't have to vote anymore" following the November elections.
Confusion set into the Republican camp, doubly troubled by divisions over the pick of Trump running mate JD Vance, a candidate seen as being able to move the MAGA torch forward criticized for this past statements. Meanwhile Harris enjoyed an immediate boost as all fifty state Democratic chairs promptly backed her and donors who may have been withholding funds as Biden was hanging on, opened the floodgates of campaign cash. Some $310 million flooded to her coffers soon after Biden's endorsement.
While Democrats didn't want her nomination to amount to a coronation, Harris, who spent a part of her youth in Montreal, quickly gathered the support of enough Democratic delegates to secure the nomination, which was confirmed ahead of the DNC convention in Chicago. In no time the star-power support which had started abandoning Biden had returned to boost the Democratic ticket, actor George Clooney, who had asked the current president to step aside, joining other celebrities backing Harris. But no endorsement mattered more than that of former president Barack Obama, who behind the scenes had been trying to limit the fallout of Biden's TV debate and save the party in power.
Early polls showed Harris not only gaining on Trump in the popular vote but getting slightly ahead of him, though winning it has proven insufficient for Demo-crats to secure the White House in the past. Numbers showed Harris gaining on her opponent notably in some battleground states, but is this bump sustainable or is it coming too soon? Democrats were hoping her pick of a running mate and the coming convention would keep the momentum going. With weeks to go before the election, a period which may include TV debates and more action in the courts involving Trump, some wondered what else could possibly be in store in what has been an eventful electoral year.
NO MAS
Basta le tourisme, scandaient des Barcelonais en juillet, mois par excellence du tourisme de masse, et non pour la première fois. Cette fois cependant le message, "touristes rentrez chez vous" était plus direct car crié entre jets de pistolets à eau. Pendant ce temps la capitale de l'Alaska proposait d'interdir les bateaux de croisière d'accoster les samedis, pour donner un peu de repit aux citoyens de Juneau.
Ces gestes se multiplient à travers le monde dans les coins les plus achalandés. Or pourtant d'autres suivent cette évolution avec envie, songeant plutôt aux retombées financières rattachées au secteur du loisir. C'est presque à penser qu'il n'y a pas de juste milieu entre ces extrêmes, un peu comme la politique ces derniers temps. On n'en était évidemment pas au premier mouvement du genre dans la métropole catalane, deuxième destination touristique au monde. Ils étaient près de 3000 à manifester cet été sous la bannière «Ça suffit! Mettons des limites au tourisme», un écho entendu dans plusieurs villes populaires de la Méditerranée.
«Nous n’avons rien contre le tourisme, mais contre l’excès de tourisme... parce qu’il rend la ville invivable», expliquait Jordi Guiu, sociologue barcelonais septuagénaire qui depuis des années vit cette même invasion de touristes des quatre coins du monde. Ces hordes de quelques 12 millions de visiteurs y auraient fait grimper le loyer de 68% lors de la dernière décennie, et modifié la nature des commerces des quartiers de manière à la rendre méconnaissable aux habitants. De Venise aux Canaries en passant par la Corse, qui ont connu de semblables mouvements, la résistance s'étend à travers le continent, et sur d'autres rives bien plus éloignées encore.
Cet automne la ville américaine de Juneau compte proposer une interdiction visant l'arrivée des bateaux de croisière un jour par semaine, le samedi, pour permettre à ses habitants de s'y retrouver et de reprendre leurs forces avant le prochain déversement. Parfois même les retombées financières alléchantes ne suffisent plus à faire passer la pilule. Mais d'autres suivent ces débats avec un regard plutôt envieux.
Si au moins il y avait moyen de trouver un juste milieu global. Des opérateurs indigènes au Canada regrettent que le gouvernement fédéral n'ait pas été plus actif pour les soutenir, eux qui avaient été durement atteints par la pandémie. Il s'agissait après tout, en 2019, du secteur du tourisme enregistrant la meilleure croissance au pays, générant près de 2 milliards en revenus, près du tiers en Ontario. Cette part est en déclin, mais pourtant, selon l'Association du tourisme autochtone du Canada, un tiers des visiteurs internationaux seraient en quête d'une destination autochtone authentique, et plus de la moitié des voyageurs nationaux également.
Le potentiel est donc important. "Nous savons que le Canada serait un leader mondial, mais cela va exiger de l'investissement sérieux." explique Keith Henry de l'Association. Le Canada a bien versé, avec son budget de 2022, quelques 20 millions de dollars pour cette industrie, mais ces dépôts au compte-goutte n'ont pas l'impact désiré semble-t-il. Selon la ministre du tourisme Soraya Martinez Ferrada, les efforts du fédéral sont au rendez-vous, mais évidemment il faudrait en faire beaucoup plus. "Les gens désirent un tourisme qui est vrai et authentique, dit-elle, ils ont très envie de choses vraies et d'expériences uniques." Comment trouver un équilibre?
Le Dane-mark a peut-être trouvé une solution: récompenser les touristes prêts à faire un geste environ-nemental. Cet été un projet pilote récom-pense les visiteurs faisant des choix verts, comme le déplacement à pied ou à vélo, ou aidant à ramasser quelques détritus, leur permettant de mériter des cafés ou des balades en kayak gratuits à l'aide d'un système d'accumulation des bonnes actions dénommé Copenpay.
"C'est une question de créer des expériences à la fois mémorables et responsables," résume le PDG de Wonderful Copenhagen, Mikkel Aaro. Arrivez eu musée national en vélo ou en transport en commun et méritez une glace. La collecte de quelques déchets dans le secteur BaneGaarden vous vaudrait même un repas gratuit. Il suffirait de se prendre en photo ou de montrer vos billets de train. Copenhague reçoit déjà 12 millions de nuitées, il n'est donc pas nécessairement question d'augmenter le tourisme mais de le rendre plus responsable, d'une manière bien scandinave. Mais d'autres vont plus loin et sont rendus au point de faire de l'anti-promotion de leur destination.
C'est le cas d'Amsterdam avec sa compagne "stay away" visant notamment les jeunes hommes de 18 à 35 ans trop friands d'aventures. La méthode était plutôt stricte mais efficace. "Ça n'a pas mis fin aux fêtes mais cela a créé une certaine prise de conscience que la ville a changé les règles du jeu," résume Sebastian Zenker, professeur de tourisme à Copenhague. En fait, il n'est pas vraiment question de guerre entre les touristes et locaux, mais plutôt de mettre fin au tourisme mal géré.
ANOTHER SHAM VOTE
The end of the Chavista era? Few Venezuelans truly believed in it in the lead up to the country's latest presidential vote, and indeed there was something familiar about how it all played out. The regime after all has gathered too many powers, placed too many institutions in its pockets, and has too many tricks ups its sleeve to allow the true nature of voting to come out despite polls showing an overwhelming push for change, not only one favoring the opposition, but doing so with a landslide.
Consider the opposition's dominant figure, Maria Corina Machado, was prevented from running, leaving in her stead 74-year-old diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. Not stopping there, the regime jailed some 100 opponents, prevented international observers from overseeing the election and closed the borders to keep returning Venezuelans from casting ballots not sure to support Maduro. Nor did the latter fail to warn that not being re-elected would plunge the country into a bloodbath sure to lead to all out civil war.
After a dozens years of his rule, the opposition claims returns show over 70% of electors chose Gonzalez, reflecting polls showing time was up after a quarter century of Chavist rule. (Page 3) (From Cover) - The regime-backing National electoral council however came to another conclusion, giving Maduro a bare majority of votes, 51%, as if to show the contest had been close, but didn't change the outcome.
Opponents, who rushed to appeal to institutions no less ruled by the regime, expected little else. As he did five years ago, the strongman of Caracas clings to power, facing a new round of sanctions he uses to justify the country's many challenges, running the risk of losing millions more of fleeing citizens in the process, tired of corruption and years of economic crisis despite sitting on massive oil reserves.
While the regime's Cuban and Russian allies congratulated Maduro on his re-election, Western countries and neighbors questioned the results, asking for detailed breakdowns of the tally after official results Chile's president called "hard to believe." His Uruguayan counterpart dismissed the whole affair saying the regime was going to declare itself the winner "no matter the actual results", while Peru recalled its ambassador.
Argentina openly recognized Gonzalez as the winner, as did the US. Five years ago a similar divide had led many in the West to back opposition figure Juan Guaido for some time, without changing anything about the regime's grip on power. If anything relations with Washington had recently improved, while Caracas' allies enabled Maduro to survive the latest round of sanctions. As then demonstrations once more spilled into the streets, some clashes leading to fatalities.
The military's support of the Maduro regime remains key, its loyalty preventing any change to the current leadership despite interna-tional condemnation. Maduro was soon enough back to not only placing opposition supporters in jail, but asking citizens to snitch on anyone questioning the results of the election. Machado went into hiding, fearing for her life
CAMPAIGN CHAOS
In the early goings of this US election year there was already much concern and something of a collective groan. In retrospect these were the good old days. With one presidential candidate surviving an assassination attempt and another facing new pressures to end his candidacy while battling a bout of covid, the campaign entered a chaotic final stretch in the lead up to November's vote.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump had not spoken together since the debate that caused many to doubt the incumbent's faculties, lead-ing to calls to step aside, but when they did chat briefly it was to allow Biden to express his concern after the assassination attempt. It wasn't the first time Trump had been threatened, nor a president shot at, something sadly too familiar in this republic where four sitting presidents were killed and three others injured.
As far back as eight years ago a British national was arrested for attempting to grab a policeman's gun and shoot Trump during a Las Vegas rally. Another threatened his motorcade with a forklift in the first year of his presidency. Later a woman was sentenced to over 20 years in prison for mailing a threatening letter containing the poison ricin to the Trump White House. Biden has, like many politicians in the US and elsewhere, been threatened while in office, though never so directly. Earlier this year the prime minister of Slovakia was hit by an assassin's bullet but survived. In 2022 Japan's prime minister wasn't so lucky, dying from injuries after being shot at a political event.
The toxic political environment has been palpable in many countries but the US, like Slovakia, has more than its share of firearms in circulation. Gun violence is something Biden was denouncing in his latest speeches, in fact he was speaking about banning assault weapons hours before the shooting in Pennsylvania. In addition Americans are now able to obtain ammunition with greater ease, using distributors as they would to obtain a soft drink. "We cannot be like this" Biden said soon after the shooting, briefly addressing Americans as presidents have throughout the years following mass gun shootings.
But all the while the sitting president has in his way been coming under fire, ever since a poor performance during his only TV debate with Trump this year, which a first televised national press conference after the NATO summit failed to put behind him. Dozens of sitting lawmakers of his own party have called for him to leave the presidential race. In a plea to donors at one point, Biden asked that Trump be the campaign’s “bullseye,” an unfortunate choice of words which did not fail to be slammed by his critics in the aftermath of the shooting amid calls to tone down the rhetoric of the campaign.
As both sides called for calm and unity, a tidal wave of misinformation and conspiracy theories swept the land. Lost in all this and now belonging to the past lied the conviction of Donald Trump and his legal woes, forgotten were it not for the furious merchandizing of his own campaign machinery, including items featuring the infamous mug shot made available on T-shirts and other products under the words "never surrender".
It didn't take long after the shooting for his campaign to double down on the slogan. The following day in fact it was the only message sent from his campaign to supporters in one email seeking donations. The campaign and election had to go on and indeed did even as the Biden camp pulled back some ads out of respect.
A few days later Trump appeared, as scheduled, at the Republican National Convention to accept his nomination and unveil his pick of Ohio Senator JD Vance as vice-president - a young choice decades his junior who had once been an ardent critic, even comparing him to Hitler - in an election that more and more seems Trump's to lose, his aura augmented as the candidate who defied legal consequences now also seemed to be able to dodge bullets as well, swiping at them as they whizzed by his ears before raising a defiant fist over his bloodied face.
In a campaign where image is everything, and - with its unending court cases, blood curdling shooting and unfettered capitalism - more American than apple pie -, the incident had plunged much of what had happened in the previous months into oblivion, possibly leaving Democrats to wonder whether it was even worth replacing their frail candidate at this stage. Calls for Biden's removal initially slowed as his camp considered a campaign reset ahead of the Democratic National Convention.
But contracting covid-19 seemed to condemn Biden to abandon the race, some redoubling calls for him to do so amid slipping support as Americans tried to grapple with a growingly absurd reality during what are usually slow and uneventful summer months. In a recent poll four out of five of them agreed with the sentiment their country was "spiralling out of control."
VIRAGE... A GAUCHE?
A nouveau les Français se sont présentés aux urnes et ont dû faire un choix difficile, contre leur gré parfois, méritant sans doute une première médaille alors que commencent les Jeux Olympiques qui devraient leur donner un peu de répit.
Au lieu d'avoir une vague bleue, c'est un flot rouge qui a été déversé sur leur rive après le désistement de centaines de candidats alarmés par les résultats du premier tour. Un vote à nouveau contre une vision du pays plutôt qu'en faveur d'une préférence politique. Un tel vote stratégique était-il un message à retenir aux Etats-Unis pour l'automne?
Le président américain Joe Biden a affirmé que la France avait "rejeté l'extrémisme" et était confiant que "les Démocrates le rejetteront aussi". Malheureusement cet extrémiste allait se manifester de manière tragique lors de la tentative d'assassinat de l'ancien président. Emmanuel Macron n'a qu'en partie gagné son pari, celui du rejet de la droite dure, mais a perdu des sièges et sacrifié son premier ministre, rendant sa présidence plus difficile à trois ans de la prochaine élection.
L'Europe a pu souffler après le choc du mois de juin, même si à Bruxelles les partis de droite se regroupent. Le Rassemblement National s'est tout de même vanté d'avoir effectué sa plus importante percée, condamnant "l'alliance du deshonneur" pour reprendre les dires de son chef Jordan Bardella, qui a accusé le président de "priver des millions de Français de la possibilité de voir leur idée portée au pouvoir" et de pousser le pays vers "l'incertitude et l'instabilité".
Pourtant ce n'est pas le parti du chef de l'état qui a brillé lors de ce nouveau vote de barrage, mais une gauche enhardie par une version du Front Populaire nouveau cru, cette nouvelle coalition de partis se dressant contre l'extrême droite, sans laquelle elle n'aurait pas lieu d'être.
D'ailleurs cet assem-blement de partis, dont le Parti socialiste et le Parti communiste - qui comme les autres formations politiques, n'a pas obtenu de majorité - survivra-t-il bien longtemps la soirée électorale maintenant du passé? Jusqu'ici sa campagne a été efficace et concluante, s'étirant même outre-mer où des prospectus étaient distribués aux téléspectateurs des matchs de l'Euro à Montréal.
Au sein de cet électorat plutôt progressiste de plusieurs milliers d'expatriés les messages du barrage étaient omniprésents. "On ne peut pas laisser l'extrême droite au pouvoir, ce serait une insulte à notre diversité, à ce qu'on est," explique un militant, les tracts à la main.
Mais en métropole, après plusieurs jours de tractations infructueuses et devant l'impasse qui perdure Macron a dû accepter cette semaine la démission de Gabriel Attal et de tous les ministres, qui devront assurer "le traitement des affaires courantes du pays jusqu'à la nomination d'un nouveau gouvernement." La trêve olympique commence ainsi avec son lot d'inconnu.
VOISINS ENVIEUX
Après la crainte sénégalaise puis la réaffirmation de son exception, les citoyens des pays voisins d'Afrique de l'ouest critiquent chez eux la lenteur de la transition après les coups d'états, dénonçant l'emprise des militaires souvent sur un fond d'insécurité. Cette prise de courage n'a pas toujours eu les effets espérés.
Alors que l'impatience monte et que les partis politiques et la société civile en Guinée et au Mali faisaient appel au retour à l'ordre constitutionnel après les récents coups d'état, le Tchad et le Togo débutaient enfin leur campagne électorale après un nouveau délai, semant le doute au sein de l'opposition. Si le scénario n'est pas sans rappeler celui de Dakar plus tôt cette année autant se souvenir qu'on n'en est pas au premier report du scrutin. Même cri de coeur des opposants dans un Burkina Faso en pleine tourmente.
Une attaque revendiquée par le Jnim (groupe islamiste), faisait 73 victimes au début du mois. Le gouvernement de transition, comme d'autres également issu d'un coup d'état, annonça du coup le prolongement de la mobilisation générale des citoyens de 18 ans et plus afin de «poursuivre la lutte contre le terrorisme». Mais la société civile s'organise à Ouaga afin de prévoir le retour des civils à la tête du pays de 22 millions d'habitants. Le Front pour la Défense de la République veut engager la transition civile et préparer les prochaines élections, denonçant la "répression" d'une "tyrannie sans nom" ainsi que les civils tués et les enlèvements depuis la prise de pouvoir des militaires en 2022.
Au Mali où insécurité va de pair avec la crise humanitaire, la junte a répondu aux appels de l'opposition avec la suspension des activités des partis et associations politiques "pour des raisons d'ordre public". Elle a également interdit la couverture médiatique de ces partis. Ceci des semaines après ce qui devait être la fin de la période de transition de la junte au pouvoir.
Plus de 80 partis politiques avaient fait appel à la tenue d'élections et à la fin de la période de transition militaire qui a suivi deux coups d'états en autant d'années. Un décret présidentiel avait fixé au 28 mars l'échéancier mais aucune date électorale n'est encore prévue, la présidentielle ayant été reportée sine die. Les organisations proches du pouvoir estiment que la "mission" des autorités n'est pas encore terminée.
Des douzaines de partis politiques dénoncent un "vide juridique et institutionnel" au pays, exigeant l'organisation d'élections "dans les meilleurs délais". Les opposants redoutent l'indépendance de la cour constitutionnelle qui doit doit trancher sur ce débat capital. En Guinée en même temps, les partis politiques exigeaient un retour à l'ordre constitutionnel avant la fin de l'année, un échéancier initialement prévu dont on craint le report là aussi.
Selon Abdoulaye Oumou Sow, porte-parole du Front national pour la défense de la Constitution, rien n’empêche les autorités de la transition d’organiser des élections, et l'opposition menace de ne plus reconnaitre le pouvoir transitionnel si ses revendications sont ignorées. «Si on s’en tenait à l’accord de la Cédéao, c’est sûr qu’à partir de ce mois de mars, on aurait déjà une Constitution, on aurait déjà des élus à la base, notamment, les élections communales et communautaires se seraient déjà déroulées, dit-il. Mais malheureusement, comme la junte n’a pas de volonté, elle n’a rien fait pour mettre en œuvre le chronogramme de la Cédéao.»
Par conséquent l'opposition a proposé une révision constitutionnelle soumise à référendum, ajoutant: «rien ne peut empêcher qu’on parte maintenant aux élections, sauf la mauvaise volonté de la junte qui veut, de manière dilatoire, confisquer le pouvoir. » Même cri de l'opposition au Togo, où l'opposant Jean-Pierre Fabre condamnait le report des législatives et régionales, dont la campagne commence tout juste, de "pure provocation". L'opposition dénonce, autre terme familier, un "coup d'état constitutionnel" avec l'adop-tion surprise et controversée de la nouvelle Constitution.
Le ministre de la fonction publique se défend: « Il est nécessaire d’établir les principes de fonctionnement de la nouvelle législature avant qu’elle ne soit mise en place ». Mais là comme ailleurs dans la région, on est à bout de patience. Car pour l'opposition, la nouvelle Constitution laisse à désirer et cache une intention bien claire: «Personne n'est dupe, déclare l'opposant Jean-Pierre Fabre, accusant le président de vouloir échapper aux limites de mandat et d'ignorer l'opinion de la population.
Le Togo est devenu le champ d'expérimentation d'une poignée d'affairistes africains.» Pendant ce temps le président et chef de la junte tchadien Mahamat Idriss Déby tentait de se faire rassurant à propos de la limite de deux mandats successifs: "Je vais respecter la constitution", dit-il. Mais l'opposition dénonce la position moins que neutre de l'armée. Là également, beaucoup semble se jouer dans les casernes.
AFFORDABLE THREATS FOM ABOVE
They menacingly crisscross Eastern European and Middle Eastern skies, and far beyond. Increasingly the weapon of choice for low budgeted forces from Yemen to Ukraine, drones have been multiplying over the battlefields of the planet.
So Myanmar's military junta need not have been so surprised when they showed up over the capital Nya Pyi Taw this month as the insurgents of the government in exile launched a coordinated attack in its ongoing war against the regime that once welcomed and later removed Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. In terms of military operation it had limited success, it was certainly less effective than previous attacks along the country's borders with India and China which extended the group's territorial claims over large swaths of the country.
The exiled national unity government claims it controls 60% of the 676,000 sq. kilometre nation of 54 million. But the victimless aerial attack on the airport and military installations allowed it, like Ukraine's armed forces or Yemen's Houthi's, to extend its reach and hit targets further away, amid a period of anxiety for the regime. And the anti-coup forces had a reason to rejoice days later after capturing another key town on the eastern border with Thailand.
Troops surrendered in the town of Myawaddy, a strategic location where most of Myanmar's overland trade with Thailand takes place. The junta's war, ongoing since Suu Kyi was removed from the government in 2021, has forced authorities to enforce manda-tory conscription, including not only young able bodied men but women as well, amid reports of high levels of defection. Joining the anti-coup forces is an embattled group which has been fighting for self-rule since the country's independence in 1948, the Karen National Union. It has helped train fighters from all over the country.
Drones are now adding a new dimension to the conflict, but other high-tech tools are also taking over the battlefront. In the war in Ukraine artificial intelligence is increasingly being used to avoid Russian jamming, which seeks to prevent drone attacks, but also to help find targets, collecting all sorts of data including social media postings and other less publicly available information. The strike of a humanitarian convoy in Gaza however, which the Israeli military admitted had been an error, was also reportedly the result of AI searches for targets, bringing to light the imperfections and risks involved.
Drones themselves are not always ideal tools of the battlefield. According to the Wall St. Journal many US-manufactured drones sent to Ukraine malfunc-tioned due to glitches or were countered by Russian jamming, making Kyiv consider an alternative supplier: China.
The alternative is also cheaper, making it an option for one-way missions where drones are used as explosive-strapped kamizakes in a conflict that is decimating huge stockpiles of the device. China may in fact be feeding both sides of the conflict with its technology and more affordable prices. In multiple areas of the country, Myanmar has become a war of drones, notes analyst David Scott Mathieson.
"It appears that the fixed-wing drones are craft-manufactured, possibly from established kits or through 3D printing, which various resistance forces have been using for some time," he writes in the Asia Sentinel. Armed groups are assembling drones "by studying YouTube videos and sourcing online shopping options. These are then modified by young technicians from tech-savvy resistance fighters who have modified quadcopters, multi-rotor drones, and fixed-wing craft, attaching mortar rounds to bomb SAC bases, convoys, and personnel, and in a number of dramatic incidents also helicopters."
They may not have been inflicting mass damage or casualties, but are having an impact on already slipping morale in a conflict the regime has encountered numerous losses.
LE SOULAGEMENT
Après les émeutes et la rage, la liesse au Sénégal. Les incidents de l'hiver n'étaient-ils qu'une étape, fâcheuse mais nécessaire, de l'évolution de cette hésitante démocratie à saveur Yassa, qui aime se placer au bord du gouffre pour mieux se justifier?
Le lendemain de l'élection déjà le candidat du pouvoir, qui espérait au pire un second tour, avouait la défaite et félicitait l'opposant Bassirou Diomaye Faye pour sa victoire au premier tour (54%). Les partisans de ce dernier n'avaient pas attendu les résultats officiels pour manifester, avec joie cette fois, le sacre d'un personnage qui avait été en prison quelques jours plus tôt.
"En m'élisant président de la République, le peuple sénégalais a fait le choix de la rupture," déclara l'ancien inspecteur des finances publiques, protégé du populaire Ousmane Sonko, qu'il a nommé le chef de son gouvernement. Les deux rendaient récemment visite au président sortant tout sourires, comme si les derniers mois appartenaient déjà à un passé lointain digne d'un conte d'Amadou Koumba.
La victoire du candidat anti-système n'a évidemment pas plu à tout le monde, notamment les partisans de la continuité et du camp d'Amadou Ba, sous le choc. Dix-sept candidats en tout participaient à cette course - un vrai sprint en raison du calendrier écourté - à la présidence lors de ce scrutin finalement tenu un mois plus tard que prévu, mais au moment d'aller voter l'exercice s'est fait dans le calme et l'enthousiasme, des taux de participation importants étant enregistrés tandis que la paix régnait autour des bureaux de scrutin.
Selon l'analyste Babacar Ndiaye "Le Sénégal a toujours été un phare de la démocratie" et l'élection aura perpétué cette tradition. "A chaque fois que nous ayons pu craindre des moments difficiles, au bord du précipice, le peuple a pu manifester son opinion dans les urnes." Le dur chapitre de l'hiver semblerait donc déjà derrière nous, alors qu'on craignait un coup d'état constitutionnel, le genre de langage qui a mieux sa place ailleurs en Afrique.
"C'est bien parti pour que cette page (de période de trouble) se tourne bien", s'accorde à dire à France24 l'analyste Christophe Bois-bouvier, prenant note de l'"attachement des Sénégalais au droit, à la loi... c'est cela qui a permis au conseil constitutionnel de prendre le dessus" sur la volonté de reporter l'élection à la fin de l'année.
A présent, les attentes sont importantes suite à l'assermentation cette semaine du plus jeune président de l'histoire du pays alors qu'il traverse une période de chômage élevé. Promettant de rester un allié «pour tout partenaire qui s’engagera, avec [le Sénégal], dans une coopération vertueuse, respectueuse et mutuellement productive » il s'en engagé à prioriser la « baisse du coût de la vie », la « lutte contre la corruption » et la «réconciliation nationale ». Il devra le faire en forgeant des alliances car son parti n'a pas de majorité à l'assemblée.
IS MACRON WRONG ON TROOPS?
At a time NATO raises the Swedish flag at its headquarters in Brussels and closes its growing ranks to show a common front more than ever in the face of Russian aggression, did the French president go too far suggesting combat boots on the ground can't be excluded in the future if the invaders break through defense lines?
This did not fail to further enrage a Kremlin threatening to use strategic weapons if further NATO involvement follows, as Russian troops threatened to overcome Ukraine's Eastern defences. As leaks from German communications suggest foreign troops have already been aiding Ukrainians to train on their home soil, and as Canada and other countries hint sending troops for this sort of non-combat role may be future options, the West is dangerously coming close to a possible line in the sand on the Eastern front.
While Russia's actions have been catalysts for a strengthened Atlantic alliance, which added a 32nd member when traditionally neutral Sweden formally joined its ranks this month, NATO has faced a number of internal divisions among members, and this is but the latest as Emmanuel Macron refused to walk back his comments on possible ground involvement. Other NATO members distanced themselves from these suggestions, but they were not without echo.
Poland's foreign minister Radek Sikorski agreed the presence of NATO troops "is not unthinkable", deepening the debate among members at a crossroads at a time the continent is pressured to shore up defenses in case it must contend with an American partner less willing to support Ukraine after November's elections. In terms of lines in the sand they have been shifting steadily during the war.
NATO's fears sending battle tanks would trigger wider war gave way to similar thoughts about providing fighter jets and other heavy weaponry. Foreign troops on the ground are already a reality, according to the leaked German conference call which referred to the assistance of British and French personnel in Ukraine. Berlin resisted addings its troops by fear of bringing the conflict to a point of no return.
“The issue of sending European forces to help Ukraine was never one to be dismissed — it was always a possibility,” noted Phillips O'Brien a professor of strategic studies at Scotland's University of St. Andrews. “In fact it has become more of one as the USA has stepped back and withdrawn aid. Europe is now faced with a terrible dilemma — watching Ukraine potentially run out of ammunition, or stepping in and helping Ukraine more directly.”
Determined to support Kyiv, French lawmakers approved a security agreement with Ukraine last week. Paris didn't stop there. Soon after Moldova's Russian break-away enclave called for Russia's assistance, in a scenario not unlike the lead up to the invasion of Eastern Ukraine, Macron said France had the small West-leaning country's back, in a continuing act of defiance toward Russian aggression.
France signed a security agreement with Moldova whose break-away republic of Transnistria is home to some 1500 troops and a nationalist Russian minority implanted there by Josef Stalin, who had done the same in Crimea. A century after the Russian revolutionary took the helm of the great Soviet Union, the impact of his policies are very much in evidence today.
LE DRAME DE GAZA
Tôt ou tard il fallait s'attendre à ces scènes épouvantables d’innocents affamés écrasés par d'autres à Gaza qui ont depuis longtemps dépassé le point de désespoir pour se ruer sur la nourriture qu’on peut leur lancer ou leur larguer sur la tête en se sauvant, comme des bêtes, des prisonniers faméliques, ce qu'ils sont devenus après des mois de siège. Le voisin égyptien construit d'ailleurs un mur encore plus haut pour enclaver davantage un triste territoire coupé du reste du monde depuis des lunes malgré un accès, illusoir, à la mer.
L’offensive de Gaza qui n'en finit plus est allée trop loin, ça fait déjà des semaines qu’on le crie dans les rues du monde entier. La cour internationale parle même d'un risque de génocide. Après cette destruction systématique de Gaza com-ment espérer un bonvoisinage éventuel entre ces deux communautés déchirées? Comment vivre avec quelconque illusion de paix dans n’importe quel scénario d'avenir?
Trente mille morts plus tard on a presque oublié l’élément déclencheur, justificateur, si c’est bien le mot à employer. Voilà déjà des semaines que ni courant, ni aide ou eau suffisante, ne circule dans ce laboratoire de la misère humaine, plus un quartier ou une ville, mais bien un territoire entier devenu un camp de réfugié sans possibilité de refuge. Un dépotoir de débris contrôlé par des milices qu'on n'a plus la force de défier.
On n'est plus au bord de la famine, qui menacerait des centaines de milliers d'habitants, un quart de la population en tout, on y est déjà. Car les victimes, non des bombes, des tirs - bien que certains aient eu lieu lors d'une livraison de nourriture catastrophique et mortelle -, du manque de médicament ou de l'écroulement de ce qui peut rester d'infrastructure, mais de malnutrition, sont déjà comptées. Au moins une douzaine d'enfants, pourtant les premiers à devoir être nourris quand les parents passent leur tour, sont morts de faim à Gaza.
D'ailleurs alors que la mortalité infantile atteint son plus bas niveau dans le monde, plus d'enfants sont morts à Gaza depuis le début de la crise que pendant les quatre années antérieures. Cette semaine l'ONU affirmait que les restrictions à l'aide "pourraient constituer du crime de guerre". De son côté le secrétaire d'État américain Antony Blinken affirmait que "Selon la mesure la plus respectée en la matière, 100 % de la population de Gaza est dans une situation d'insécurité alimentaire grave. C'est la première fois qu'une population entière est ainsi classée".
Et quand cette misère cessera, si ce n'est pas avec la mort, ce sera sous un état de siège total, selon les plans du premier ministre israélien, qui s'attire dorénavant les reproches de ses propres alliés. Début mars, la vice-présidente américaine elle-même faisait appel au cessez-le-feu durant le ramadan, mais quelques semaines plus tard on l'attend toujours. Une frappe israélienne durant cette période importante du calendrier musulman fit encore une soixantaine de victimes, un drame presque devenu banal.
En attendant Washington multiplie les efforts, parachutant de l'aide humanitaire encore insuf-fisante et en quantité qui n'a rien à voir avec le passage d'un seul convoi humanitaire, et s'engage à construire un quai pour recevoir une aide future par la mer. Mais cela prendra des semaines à compléter. En attendant un pont maritime était en développement vers Chypre, pas pour y évacuer femmes et enfants, mais pour faire transiter l'aide humanitaire afin de retrouver une certaine humanité. Par ailleurs on levait la suspension du financement de l'Office controversé de secours et de travaux des Nations Unies pour les réfugiés de Palestine pour le Proche-Orient.
Mais rien pour changer cette souffrance continue à court et moyen terme, ou proposer quelque solution de sortie de crise. Car le premier ministre Netanyahou promet de poursuivre l'offensive à Rafah, lieu de refuge de centaines de milliers ayant été évincés ailleurs dans la bande, malgré les condamnations interna-tionales. Le président américain affirmait même que Bibi "fait plus de mal que de bien à Israël" alors que d'autres font appel à la tenue de nouvelles élections dans le pays hébreu.
Et même si l'offensive s'arrêtait maintenant, les conséquences de ces mois de bombardement feront des victimes pendant plusieurs années encore. "On estime que 45 000 bombes ont été larguées sur la bande de Gaza lors des trois premiers mois du conflit, résume Anne Héry de l'organisme Handicap International. Or, en se basant sur un taux d'échec se situant entre 9 et 14 %, il est possible que plusieurs milliers de bombes n'aient pas fonctionné comme prévu et qu'elles n'aient pas explosé à l'impact et se retrouvent disséminées dans les ruines et sur toutes les surfaces du territoire".
QUI POUR DIRIGER HAITI?
On n'avait pas tort de penser qu'Haïti était sans gouverne depuis quelques mois, mais ce n'est que la semaine dernière que le premier ministre a rendu sa démission après des semaines de pression de la part des gangs qui terrorisent cette bien torturée perle des Antilles.
A peine quelques jours en fait après la signature longuement attendue d'un accord sur l'envoi de policiers kenyans pour venir en aide à leurs collègues débordés, les évémenents en décidèrent autrement, et la mission qui devait ramener un semblant de paix était en suspens. Le premier ministre Ariel Henry annonçait son départ alors qu'un conseil présidentiel de transition se mettait à l'oeuvre afin de désigner un dirigeant intérimaire.
C'est un pacte entre les gangs qui dominent l'ile, unissant leurs forces afin de faire tomber le gouvernement, du moins ce qu'il en restait, qui a précipité la crise, suivi de l'attaque de l'aéroport - empêchant le retour du premier ministre de l'étranger - du port et de prisons, causant la libération de centaines de détenus, semant davantage la zizanie à Hispaniola où on avait déclenché l'état d'urgence.
Le secrétaire général de l'ONU Antonio Guterres a depuis fait appel à une "action urgente" de la part des états membres, mais difficile de voir comment la situation pouvait être plus urgente, l'attaque du port rendant la livraison de l'aide humanitaire presque impossible. "Si on ne peut pas avoir accès aux conteneurs Haïti va mourir de faim," estimait Laurent Uwumuremyi de l'organisme Mercy Corps. Les autorités américaines craignaient un effondrement du pouvoir imminent alors que les diplomates fuyaient le pays tandis qu'un pont aérien crucial était établi avec la République dominicaine avoisinnante.
Accusé d'être derrière ces attaques, et d'innombrables autres atrocités, Jimmy 'Barbecue' Chérizier, chef du gang G9, avait averti que sans cette démission du premier ministre le pays allait "tout droit vers une guerre civile qui conduira à un génocide". L'ancien policier de 46 ans sous le régime de sanctions de l'ONU se défend de répandre le chaos, accusant le pouvoir d'être responsable de l'écroulement de la nation.
"Ce sont les politiciens qui sont les vrais coupables. Les politiciens et oligarques corrompus ont apporté toutes les armes dans les quartiers populaires pour leur intérêt personnel mais pas pour le pays." Voilà donc depuis quelque temps qu'Haïti sombre dans le désordre perpétré par le mariage de gangs et partis politiques, notamment depuis l'assassinat du président en 2021, et l'enquête qui se poursuit sur cet événement sinistre malgré tout a porté d'étonnantes accusations, une d'elles contre la veuve du défunt chef d'état.
Henry à présent écarté, quel avenir pour ce triste pays? Washington exige une transition accélérée vers une autre gouvernance avec l'annonce prochaine d'élections. Car sur le terrain ce qu'il reste à sauver diminue peu à peu, notamment un système de santé «proche de l'effondrement», selon l'ONU, notant que «de nombreux établissements de santé sont fermés ou ont dû réduire drastiquement leurs opérations en raison d'une pénurie inquiétante de médicaments et de l'absence du personnel médical», évoquant également des pénuries de sang, d'équipements médicaux ou de lits pour traiter les blessés par balles.
THE PERILS OF LEADERSHIP
Less than two years into her mandate, Gatineau's first female mayor said she had had enough of the toxic environment, harassment, intimidation, and even death threats, and resigned. France Belisle wasn't alone a municipal organization noted as she bid her constituents goodbye, hundreds of other municipal leaders had done the same in previous months in Quebec.
Belisle herself said she regretted the "exodus" of officials, citing the resignation of the young mayor of the small community of Chapais and the temporary withdrawal of the mayor of another city, citing health reasons. These examples were all women, it turns out. And at a time all public officials face an increasing amount of threats and intimidation, women are often particularly targeted, it doesn't matter where they live.
In Mexico's presidential election front runner Claudia Sheinbaum says she was facing a flood of hate-filled messages after her phone number was leaked on social media. "What they want to do is obvious, once again their attacks are as crude as they are harmless," she said. Just north, the campaign of US Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley sought secret service protection after receiving a number of threats. "It's not going to stop me from doing what I need to do," Haley said defiantly after a campaign event.
It hasn't been a year since New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern quit her post after a period where she received numerous hate-filled and misogynistic messages. "Politicians are human," she said at the time. In the US, an attack at the home of then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which injured her husband, and threats against Michigan's governor, are among a series of attacks, notably against elected women, to have marked the divisive and tense political atmosphere leading to this year's elections.
In Europe a 2021 Finnish study of incidents targeting elected officials found many were facing "an elevated threat of abusive messages", mostly women. At the same the Nordic country was headed by Sanna Marin, then the youngest prime minister in the world, who headed a cabinet led by women and formed a coalition with other leaders who were also all women. Many among them were targeted by misogynistic abuse attacking their values, ridiculing their decision-making and questioning their ability to lead, the study found.
Studies have shown this sort of intimidation has discouraged women from joining politics in the first place, and shortened their careers when they tried. This is widespread. A few years ago a survey of female parliamentarians by the Inter-Parliamentary Union across 39 countries found "44 percent of surveyed women reported having received threats of death, rape, assault, or abduction. One fifth said they had been subjected to sexual violence."
In Canada according to the Privy Council Office the number of threats against federal ministers increased during the first years of the pandemic (2020-2), including 55 death threats made against the prime minister and 14 against his deputy minister, Chrystia Freeland, both of whom were caught in video footage fleeing turbulent protesters in the last years.
Twenty-six ministers received at least one reported death threat over this period, for a total of 110 in the period in a political environment charged up by divisions over vaccines and other sensitive issues often distorted by conspiracy theories on gun control and diversity "fueling violent extremist propaganda and incitement to violence". MPs and Senators have been equipped with mobile panic buttons as a result.
APRÈS NAVALNY
Ebranlée par la nouvelle du décès soudain de son mari, Ioulia Navalnaïa n'a eu besoin que de quelques minutes pour choisir ses mots et s'adresser aux participants d'une conférence sur la sécurité à Munich où elle était de passage. Les responsables, et on sait bien de qui il s'agit, auraient des comptes à rendre, et pour ceci elle faisait appel à la communauté internationale pour lui prêter main forte.
Cette dernière, la mort d'Alexeï pas encore confirmée, s'est empressée de condamner son décès dans un pénitentier en Sibérie, car on connaissait depuis longtemps la faiblesse physique du bagnard le plus reconnu et le refus de lui porter toute aide médicale. Cette incarcération avait été une mise à mort, car on connait le sort réservé aux opposants du régime, qu'il soit question d'anciens espions, de mutins de la dernière heure ou d'opposants politiques. La liste s'est allongée depuis la mort de Alexander Litvinenko, empoisonné au polonium en 2006.
L'an dernier c'était au tour de Yevgeny Prigozhin, le patron de Wagner, proche de Poutine jusqu'à la mutinerie de ses mercenaires. L'écrasement mystérieux de l'aéronef le transportant était dans la tradition des morts étranges d'opposants du régime à travers les années, pas immédiatement après leurs actes contre le régime, mais quelque peu plus tard, à l'abri des regards.
Journalistes, politiciens, oligarques même ou anciens espions, les victimes sont nombreuses, certains ayant presque la chance de se retrouver derrière les barreaux, d'autres dans un lit d'hôpital, comme l'ancien agent double Sergei Skripal, qui survécut à un empoisonnement, comme Navalny avait pu le faire en 2015.
Malgré ce sort, c'est avec aplomb et le courage de son mari que Navalnaïa annonçait "poursuivre le combat" des opposants de Poutine, du moins ceux qu'il reste, quelques jours après le décès, mais au vu de sa sortie immédiate dans les premiers instants, cette décision pouvait paraître sans surprise. Car Moscou avait mis à mort un martyre dont le travail ne risquait pas d'être si tôt oublié.
Les critiques du régime, qu'elles en veulent au Kremlin pour l'envoi de leurs jeunes au front ou pour leur refuser le droit de parole, ou même de pleurer leurs morts sur la place publique, auraient une nouvelle incarnation de l'espoir aux heures sombres de Vladimir Poutine, alors qu'on faisait déjà le deuil de tout ce qui pouvait rester d'opposition en Russie. Les centaines incarcérées pour avoir osé poser des gerbes de fleur à la mémoire du défunt, ou pleuré les soldats envoyés au front en Ukraine, auraient une personne à suivre, un idéal à entretenir.
«Avec lui, (Poutine) a voulu tuer notre espoir, notre liberté, notre avenir, dit-elle alors, je poursuivrai l’œuvre d’Alexeï Navalny. Je continuerai pour notre pays, avec vous. Et je vous appelle tous à vous tenir près de moi, poursuit-elle. Ce n’est pas une honte de faire peu, c’est une honte de ne rien faire, c’est une honte de se laisser effrayer ». Et vaincre la peur c'est rassembler non seulement les amis d'Alexeï, ses supporters, ceux qu'il a pu inspirer, mais ceux qui en veulent à Poutine pour les sanctions, les fils au front et les frontières fermées.
En cette veille d'élection bidon, une opposition tente encore et toujours de se lever pour signaler sa présence. Navalnaïa aura-t-elle un impact de l'étranger cependant? Voilà qui reste à voir, car ces actes exigent le sacrifice ultime de rester fidèle à la nation. Navalny lui-même n'était-il pas rentré chez lui après sa récupération à l'étranger malgré tout? Mais un acte de courage, comme on sait à quoi elle s'expose déjà, peut en inspirer d'autres. Lui-même dans une prison russe, Ilia Iachine accuse Poutine de meurtre et compare son régime à une organisation mafieuse.
Les risques associés à ce genre de déclaration sont d'autant plus importants quand on est déjà sous les verroux. Et ils ne sont pas limités à la Russie de Poutine. Le voisin biélorusse n'est pas moins oppresseur et revanchard. Quelques jours après le décès de Navalny c'était au militant d'opposition biélorusse Igar Lednik de périr en prison où il purgeait une peine pour «diffamation» du président Alexandre Loukachenko.
Plus d'un millier de prisonniers politiques sont incarcérés chez celui que l'on a longtemps dénommé le dernier despote d'Europe, grand ami de Poutine. Si les méthodes de répression chez les deux voisins sont similaires, la réaction des opposants l'est aussi. L'activiste biélorusse Syarhei Tsikhanou-ski une fois en prison, c'est sa femme Sviatlanta Tsikhanou-skaïa qui a porté le flambeau de la résistance. A présent dirigeante des forces démocratiques bélarusses et cheffe de file du cabinet de transition unie, cette dernière était elle aussi à Munich le jour où on a appris le décès de Nalvalny et partagea ses condoléances avec Navalnaïa.
Comme elle, Tsikhanouskaïa s'était placée à l'avant plan après l'arrestation de son mari, obtenant un résultat étonnant lors de la présidentielle de 2020 avant de devoir s'exiler. Les deux pays passent aux urnes cette année pour un exercice futile. Mais Navalnaïa réussira-t-elle tout de même à inspirer l'opposition? "Son succès dépendra de sa capacité à développer un style politique unique, articuler sa vision et rassembler une équipe professionnelle," estime la politologue Tatiana Stanovaïa.
Alors que l'opposition semble dégonflée par la mort de Navalny, les efforts du régime d'enterrer sa dépouille dans le secret trahissait ses craintes. C'est à Moscou finalement que celui-ci fut inhumé, des milliers risquant la prison en lui rendant hommage . «Si nous cédons à la morosité et au désespoir, c'est exactement ce qu'ils veulent. Nous n'avons pas le droit de faire ça, nous le devons à nos camarades tombés», déclara Vladimir Kara-Mourza, un autre opposant emprisonné.
D'autres sont plus optimistes. "Malgré ses efforts, Poutine ne pourra pas tuer le merveilleux rêve d'Alexei," estimait Nadya Tolokonnikova, fondatrice du groupe rebelle Pussy Riot. Cette semaine alors que le Kremlin condamnait un autre opposant du régime, Navalnaïa lors d'un discours à Bruxelles, déclarait que pour battre Poutine il fallait innover, "cesser d'être ennuyant" avec une ennième sanction ou résolution, le ton plus dur et déterminé que jamais. "Vous ne faites pas affaire avec un politicien, dit-elle, mais avec un monstre sanglant." Aux obsèques de Navalny, des participants ne se gênaient plus de traiter Poutine d'assassin.
LATIN AMERICA'S CONTESTED BORDERS
It hasn't been easy trying to gather security forces for an eventual international operation to stabilize gang-infested Haiti. First the country that would lead the mission, Kenya, has hit a snag, and when the issue of sending troops came up in Belize's parliament some may have been surprised by the reaction of opposition leader Shyne Barrow, who asked: "You want to go to Haiti while at the Sarstoon (river border area) Guatemalan armed forces are undermining our soverei-gnty?"
The argument may have been a valid one considering the tiny Central American country's military is limited to about 2,000 personnel in uniform. But what it also did was raise a longstanding border dispute that festers between the two neighbors, not just since the country's independence in the 80s, but going much further back to the 19th century and British rule. Like the Venezuelan dispute with neighboring Guyana, the matter has since been raised and remains unsettled at the International Court of Justice, leaving things to be fiercely debated locally and politically exploited.
As a result cries are now rising in Belize about the lack of government will to tackle the dispute against the much larger neighbor of some 18 million (nearly 40 times its population). As a result some have resorted to launching citizen patrols of the waterways mentioned by Barrow, which have since created enough of a stir as to send Belizean soldiers man a local outpost, but without bringing the issue any closer to being resolved.
In Latin America, this is yet another border dispute raising tempers without ever inching closer to a solution. Sending soldiers to defend the Belize border is hardly new, as the British did the same just under a century ago in what is arguably one of the oldest border feuds on the continent. With Belize's independence Guatemala's territorial claims were silenced somewhat for a time, it even eventually recognized Belize's independence in the 1990s, but by the end of the decade the dispute was again being raised, sending troops back at the border.
While the matter is now at the hands of international justice, long delays, as in the case of Guyana's Essequibo region further south, have left the dispute alive to fester. In fact Guatemala's government has suggested for years that the country's maps should include Belize. "Guatemalans have been brought up to believe that part of their country was stolen by the British," tells the New York Times historian Victor Bulmer-Thomas.
For a small region the continent's umbilical cord has seen a number of territorial disputes over time. El Salvador and Honduras are two other countries which have sparred over their border, another fault-line of former British and Spanish colonial masters. This is further raising instability as the region reels with drug-related violence fueling an exodus of migrants heading north to the US border.
As for Haiti, it awaits the arrival of foreign security forces after a Nairobi tribunal halted the dispatching of 1000 Kenyan poilice officers in January. The crisis there surpasses any border issues elsewhere, having killed 5000 in 2023.
PLOUGHING THE ROADWAYS
Their heavy machinery has for months been rumbling across the European landscape - which throughout history has seen war and devastation - blockading cities, ports and other strategic installations. On one highway in France they came face to face with armored carriers. No the Russians haven't extended their march Westwards, at least not yet, but the farmers certainly have, and their patience is wearing thin.
Protesting everything from red tape and high inflation to unfair foreign imports and climate regulations, farmers have deployed tractors and other vehicles from Germany and Greece to Spain and France, where they held major choke points around Paris months before the city is to hold the Olympic Games. Not unfamiliar with massive bottlenecks and traffic jams, many motorists stoically affirmed their support for the protesters feeding them, as they sat in cars for hours sometimes just to get off blocked highways.
Not unlike the trucker protests of two years ago in Canada - with jammed city streets, honking and all - or the farmer protests in India, the protesters lit fires on public roadways waving flags, many saying they faced expenses, bureaucracy and other pressures that was making their livelihood difficult to sustain. The movement first rose in the East where Polish farmers protested Ukrainian imports, embarrassing a domestic government intent to support its war-wary neighbor by lowering tariffs, and has moved West to the land of everyday protest that is the modern day French republic, sweeping others from Belgium to Italy along the way.
The demonstrations did not leave the bureaucrats in Brussels unmoved as the EU’s executive commission soon announced plans to protect farmers from cheap exports from Ukraine among other measures. “It is important that we listen to them,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. “They face gigantic challenges,” notably drastic upheavals linked to climate change. With the protesters venting against what they perceive as unfair competition from countries overseas, some have been putting trade deals on hold, France delaying a free trade deal with South American countries.
Last week the EU announced the withdrawal of a controversial law to reduce the use of pesticides. As is often the case France has seen some of the most virulent protests, security forces being mobilized around Paris after demonstrators hurled soup at the protective glass covering the Mona Lisa in the Louvre. Near Toulouse there was tragedy at a roadblock when two farmers were killed by a speeding vehicle.
Dozens of farmers were arrested during some more violent protests. During one blockade against armed officers one beret-wearing protester lamented "I would be ashamed (to be in your shoes)... armed like that against farmers, shameful." At one point thousands of access points were blockaded across the country, shutting major highways and hampering commerce, hurting other businesses in the process.
Measures announced by the French government got some blockades to be removed, but in Greece and Spain meanwhile farmer's groups were only starting to mobilize to obtain more help from the government. “The millions of euros that the prime minister says he is giving us to cut down on production costs are a pittance,” lamented the Greek farmers’ federation leader Kostas Tzelas, unsatisfied by Athens' latest attempt to quell the protest. As calm returned to Paris, Rome stirred, as the great agrarian winter of discontent continued.
PLUGGING THE LEAKS
It was weeks before Calgarians were able to go back to their showering, dish washing ways after a major water main break left city taps drying. And even then, some restrictions remained for outdoor consumption as city officials pleaded for residents to maintain water usage awareness and calling on them to pursue some of the conservation ways they had learned with great urgency over the previous weeks.
As the heat set in for the summer, including a major heatwave as the Stampede rolled into town, outdoor polls and splash parks remained banned. Outdoor irrigators meanwhile were growing concerned the lack of clear timelines for lifting restrictions would impact their business even more and cause job losses. In the mean time Quebec City also temporarily imposed restrictions on water use after an infrastructure mishap there and, last week, Montreal hospital services were impacted after a water main break.
With ageing infrastructure and growing demand for the blue gold, more incidents of the sort are sure to follow across North America. But the news hasn't been all bad according to one report. A December 2023 study of the Utah Water Research Laboratory found that water main failures between 2018 and 2023 have in fact decreased by 20% in North America, based on some 800 reporting utilities, largely thanks to the reduction of cast iron and asbestos cement pipes being used. But the estimated average water loss to leakage rose from 10% to 11% in that period, that's 260,000 pipe failures annually. And in addition 33% of water mains are over 50 years old, representing approximately 770,000 miles in the US and Canada.
In 2012 and 2018, the average ages of failing water mains were reported as 47 and 50 years, respectively. Add to this the fact that about 20% of installed water mains have not been replaced due to lack of funds, representing a shortfall of $452 billion, and the recipe for disaster starts to appear. So even before dropping water tables becomes an issue in the most developed countries, such as in the hottest and driest areas of the continent, water woes can and do emerge. And this in more ways than one.
In addition to infrastructure woes, attacks by foreign powers can threaten the continent's drinking water, and in fact some may have already been taking place. There have been a recent string of attacks on water utilities in the US, notably in Kansas, Texas and Pennsylvania, as cyber-criminals have been taking aim at critical infrastructure.
A spokeswoman for the US Environmental Protection Agency told CNBC “all drinking water and wastewater systems are at risk — large and small, urban and rural.” Earlier this year the the FBI warned Congress that Chinese hackers were targeting cyber infrastructure to damage systems such as the electricity grid the US and Canada share as well as water treatment plants. China isn't alone, Russia was linked to the hack of a Texas water filtration plant in January while Iran was behind a dozen attacks of utilities across the US last year.
Experts note that while attacks may not cripple these infrastructures they tend to have a psychological impact on populations. Over a decade ago a Canadian intelligence report underlined jihadist threats as well. "Infrastructure sectors and institutions in various jurisdictions that are known to have experienced insider threats from international jihadist elements in recent years include airports, airlines, energy utilities, nuclear plants, petroleum companies, university laboratories, water systems, sensitive government departments and security agencies in Denmark, the Netherlands, the U.K. and the U.S."
The development of artificial intelligence is in addition adding to the tools used by cybercriminals in such attacks. “Rapid advances in artificial intelligence are giving cyberthreat actors more sophisticated tactics, techniques, and procedures to penetrate operational technology that controls critical infrastructure facilities,” the EPA spokesman said. “These attacks have been linked to a variety of types of malicious actors, including hackers working on behalf of or in support of other nations who could use disruptions to U.S. critical infrastructure to their strategic advantage.”
GUSTS OF CHANGE
Change seems afoot amid the world's top Western democracies. As Britain switched leadership with the collapse of the conservative party this week, its Canadian counterpart looked to make major gains in the yet to be called parliamentary elec-tions. Likewise France's government seemed poised for a shake-up after the first round of snap polls gave the far-right Rassemblement National 33% of the votes, causing others to band in opposition, as it threatened to put in place the first hard right French government in the post-war era.
In the land of the leader of the free world meanwhile, tightening polls after the conviction of the Republican nominee once again gave Donald Trump a more comfortable lead after a disastrous debate for the incumbent. So under-whelming was Joe Biden's performance in fact, that long-time supporters called for him to make way for another Democratic candidate, four months before election night.
The last few weeks haven't been kind to the 81-year-old who looked every day the part for the first debate of the presidential election. His son had recently been convicted on federal gun charges, a fact that did not fail to come up, and while Biden was quick to snap back that the only convicted felon he could see was "the man I'm looking at" during the debate, his raspy voice and lack of energy left casual observers and experts alike agreeing the night had been a disaster despite an opponent refusing to say clearly he would recognise electoral defeat and making a litany of inaccurate claims, some more preposterous than the others.
The difference being that in doing so the former president looked not a year older, or less of a fabulist, than when he stepped out of the White House. In an election where voters indicated their dislike for both of these choices, and the preference of none of the above wasn't an option, the night's performance failed to reassure Americans Biden was indeed fit for a job he would occupy into his mid-80s. Major publications such as the Economist and New York Times called for Biden to end his bid. Even insiders of the government in Canada were privately expressing concerns about the performance of their ally.
But these friends were having their own troubles. Justin Trudeau's party lost a riding that had been Liberal for decades in a byelection catastrophe which has also raised calls for him not to run again in the next federal election. While this may be more than a year away, some observers say the trouble the ruling party is in is such it would make little difference to change leaders. Soon after the byelection, former cabinet minister Catherine McKenna stated "The Prime Minister has a legacy to be proud of but it's time for new ideas, new energy and a new leader." A sitting Liberal MP later echoed that sentiment.
In France, Trudeau ally Emmanuel Macron was successful preventing the far right from winning a majority but lost precious seats. While the battle is for the prime ministership and not the presidency, some fear the new National assembly could make coexistence difficult for Macron. In the UK meanwhile, Rishi Sunak's ousting as short lived prime minister hardly came as a surprise after a campaign where voters made plain the Tories had run their course in Great Britain after 14 years in power marked by scandals and Brexit.
While a weakening of the centre can be held responsible for some of the upheaval in these countries, so is the inevitable swing of the political pendulum after years of the same parties holding power. In all these cases the changes and likely changes had important ramifications in terms of policies, but nowhere was this more alarming than in Washington as some feared a new Trump presidency would diminish support to Ukraine and NATO, among other significant foreign policy changes.
The day after the debate Biden was back on the campaign trail vowing to continue the fight. "Folks, I might not walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to. I might not debate as well as I used to. But what I do know is how to tell the truth," he told a North Carolina crowd. "And I know what millions of Americans know. When you get knocked down you get back up." But this did not quiet the critics fearing the incumbent's chances in the fall, already challenging in the past, were now simply marked for failure regardless of this opponent's judicial distrac-tions.
Looking on are rival powers, from China to Russia and Iran, hardly concerned about polling of any sort and hoping the changes in Western democracies play in their favour to alter the balance of power. Biden and Trudeau vowed to stay on despite facing pressure to step down, both citing their need to confront the world's challenges to freedom. But their political wager looked as shaky as Macron's, days before second round voting in France.
CAN SENEGAL AVOID THE SLIP?
While much of the West African region reeled from both failed and successful coups, Senegal could always be counted on as a more stable, fair arbiter, a model of democracy in a troubled part of the world. But the nation of 17 million has been slipping from its democratic pedestal in the run up to the latest presidential election, to the point opposition legislators say it is being swept by a constitutional coup.
Protesters clashed with police in major cities after Senegalese president Macky Sall postponed this month's scheduled presidential election hours before campaigning was to begin. Lawmakers then voted for a potential new date only after a chaotic session of the legislature which was marked by the removal of members of the opposition. Tensions in the streets reflected this sad state of affairs, clashes leading to three deaths.
The charge of constitutional coup is a significant one in a region of the continent which has been rattled by numerous coups over the years and is the culmination of months of rising tensions which have often spilled into the streets after the country's constitutional council denied a number of candidates the right to participate in the vote, notably the highly popular Ousmane Sonko and Karim Wade, son of a former president. Sall defended his action saying holding the vote in view of the council's decision risked tainting the election, fearing this may just increase tensions across the country.
But this didn't take long to become reality. Sall, who has served a maximum two mandates, vowed to begin "an open national dialogue... to create the conditions for a free, transparent and inclusive election in a peaceful and reconciled Senegal." But the decision made the state of the nation very far from that goal amid mass protests. Some opposition politicians said they would campaign regardless.
The postponement is historic in the country seen as a model of democracy in the region but comes after years of grumbling, notably by supporters of Sonko, who has faced court cases he says were part of a campaign to prevent his candidacy. "This is a precedent, a dangerous precedent," said opposition candidate Khalifa Sall, who called for a boycott. Another candidate, Anta Babacar Ngom was arrested in ensuing protests.
The US, France and other countries expressed concern, asking the president to soon determine a new date to hold elections. Also hoping Sall would put forward a new date is the much maligned ECOWAS regional organi-zation, already reeling from the loss of three member states which have seen recent coups, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, now making a rare appeal for calm in one of its more exemplary member states.
Last week the group held an emergency session, something it usually does under Senegal's stewardship. But the constitutional council's ruling this week that postponing the vote was unconstitutional put matters back into the president's corner as the leadership was looking to lower tensions by releasing some detained opponents. All may not be lost yet, and all of Africa is watching.
UN COUP... MONTÉ?
Tentative de coup d'état ou coup monté de toute pièce? La question se pose quelques jours après le putsch manqué de La paz dans un pays reconnu autant pour ses coups d'état que pour ses chapeaux melon.
Le plus récent, une curieuse affaire de quelques heures terminée avec quelques arrestations sans véritable dégât ou coup de feu, a connu un autre coup d'éclat: son auteur, le général Juan José Zúñiga Macías, a lancé que le président lui avait demandé de passer à l'acte pour faire monter ses cotes de popularité un an avant les élections qui doivent marquer le 200e anniversaire de l'indépendance.
En effet le président Luis Arce connait une popularité en chute libre en raison d'une crise financière et économique et aurait besoin d'un remontant. Ce dernier pointe plutôt du doigt l'ancien président Evo Morales, pourtant issu du même parti Mouvement vers le socialisme (MAS) mais qui a dû connaitre l'exil après avoir tenté de garder le pouvoir au-delà des deux mandats, dépassant la limite autorisée par la constitution. Les deux se livrent une chaude lutte, à la fois idéologique au sein du parti, et dans les sondages.
Morales épouse également cette version d'autocoup circulée par Zúñiga une fois les menottes aux mains, alors qu'Arce faisait appel à l'appui des foules pour condamner cet affront au nom de la démocratie. Alors que la cour constitutionnelle se range du côté de ceux qui déclarent tout retour de Morales illégal, les alliés de ce dernier rendent la vie plutôt difficile au président au sein du Congrès.
Faisant appel à l’ouverture d’une enquête sur la crise, Morales a ridiculisé le déroulement des incidents: « Le coup d’État commence, les ministres se promènent joyeusement sur la place Murillo, ils touchent des chars ; un coup d’État avec zéro blessé, zéro coup de feu, zéro mort ».
Coup en bonne et due forme ou autocoup, les tentatives se multiplient, notamment en Afrique, depuis un an, et il ne s'agit pas de la première à connaitre l'échec. En ce laps de temps le Burkina Faso a connu deux tentatives qui ont echoué, une affaire entre militaires dont la plus récente remonte en janvier.
Sierra Leone et Guinée-Bissau ont également connu l'échec à ce chapitre, ainsi que le géant du continent, la République démocratique du Congo, proie à une multitude de tiraillements et de rébellions, notamment avec la provocation des voisins. Le putsch raté est de plus en plus fréquent selon une étude de Harvey Kebschull, spécialiste de l'université de la Caroline du nord.
Est-ce parce que les gouvernements parviennent mieux à les prévenir, notamment avec une meilleure utilisation des renseignements ou est-ce parce qu'ils sont organisés par des auteurs maladroits? Par ailleurs les conséquences peuvent se faire sentir longtemps après la crise, et certains sont même parvenus à obtenir des résultats. Un putsch en Zambie en 1990 a éventuellement provoqué la libération de prisonniers politi-ques et plus tard entrainé des élections, note Kebschull. Mais il s'agit plutôt d'une exception.
IT IS ONLY COMMERCE?
There was something historically unnerving about the visit of Russian warships and a nuclear powered submarine to Havana in June. The Cuban embargo is still in place after all these years, but the visit harkened back fears of the blockade of the island at the height of the Cuban missile crisis.
Shadowed by a Canadian vessel, the visitors came and left without incident, the trip full of symbolism as Russia seeks to raise tensions abroad in an attempt to possibly distract Washington from the war in Ukraine. After Vladimir Putin's May visit to China, the Russian leader went on another trip sure to raise alarm bells in the US, to North Korea, a supplier of arms to the red army seeking to counter the allies' assistance to Ukraine, a show of support years into sanctions that were supposed to isolate the Kremlin and choke its supply lines.
If it feels Moscow is multiplying its options in these times of great power rivalries, notably in the Americas, it isn't the only one. And while others aren't being so open about it, their intentions are no less concerning to North Americans. China's decade-old Belt and road initiative has spread its tentacles across the world and that includes Latin America and the Caribbean, where some are eyeing warily infrastructure investments that may one day be able to provide the rising superpower with a military foothold in the region.
The Americas are front and centre in the global hunger for lithium and other commodities, and China has been busy expanding its global investments there to the tune of billions, from Central America to the doorstep of the Antarctic. In 2021 Latin America and the Caribbean received between $7 billion and $10 billion in combined investment from Beijing, most of it going to Brazil at just under $6 billion in foreign direct investment, followed by Chile, Peru and Argentina.
The latter and Nicaragua also joined the Belt and road initiative project two years ago, which now involves over 20 countries in the region. Among them Peru is with this investment building a megaport some say could become a challenge to US influence in the region, and not just commercially.
While China is already a major trade partner in the region, the US fears Chinese influence in its backyard may extend to the military sphere. “This changes the game,” Eric Farnsworth of the Council of the Americas think tank tells the Wall St Journal. “It really platforms China in a major new way in South America as the gateway to global markets. It is not just a commercial issue at that point, it is a strategic issue.”
The port, which would be able to welcome megaships, could make Chancay a major hub for trans-Pacific trade, and adds to the dozens of sea ports controlled or operated by China across the world after injecting some $30 billion is nearly four dozen countries. While Lima says US concerns are much ado about nothing American officials point out China’s domestic law dictates its firms must take into account national defence as well as commercial needs in their operations.
And Chinese companies have been increasing their foothold from Brazil, which now counts China as its top trade partner, to Honduras, which cut its ties with Taiwan to draw Chinese investments. Over a decade in the making the BRI is the world's largest infrastructure undertaking, with China financing up to $1 trillion in infrastructure in nearly 150 countries.
Blamed of falling asleep while China was making gains in the great power rivalry, the US has been touting its own alternative to the belt and road initiative, a India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor announced at the G20 last year which would link India, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe. Not limiting itself to improving trade links, the corridor would develop electricity and digital infrastructure and promote clean hydrogen exports.
This could speed up trade between Europe and India and develop corridors of trade in Africa. But this all currently remains in infancy. In the mean time China has been tightening ties with Cuba itself, military ones, and recent satellite imagery suggests the development of eavesdropping stations on the island linked to China, including installations close to Guantanamo Bay, possibly to spy on anything from military bases to commercial shipping.
AFTER THE EURO VOTE
It was largely expected populist and far-right parties would fare well in Europe's recent elections, though the results were not as alarming as some feared, but few anticipated the response of France's Emmanuel Macron when his country's results gave nearly a third of the vote to the far-right.
The French president promptly dissolved parliament and announced snap parliamentary elections right before the Olympics, daring electors to trust extremists at the national level and urging citizens to unite against them. Not everyone is convinced he will win his bet but large crowds demonstrated against the rise of the far right and super stars such as Kylian Mbappé warned against "extremes".
Rarely had continental elections had such an impact on domestic politics and the gamble seemed to suit up and coming right wing politician Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement National and protégé of Marine Le Pen, just fine. The far-right made gains in other countries including Italy, Austria and Germany, but despite his party's setback at the polls, Chancellor Olaf Scholz refrained from calling an election. European Commis-sion chief Ursula von der Leyen, whose centrist alliance maintained the majority overall, still found reason to celebrate and vowed to erect a "barrier" to extremism after the June 9 vote.
She quickly started to work on the creation of a new coalition of centrists and allies as the success of right-wing parties could make it harder for legislation to be passed and the continent to come together on contentious issues such as Ukraine. Far right leaders including the Netherlands' Geert Wilders, Italy's Mattheo Salvini and Le Pen meanwhile were holding their own meetings to unite the continent's "center right", even though they are considered quite removed from the center. The far right itself is in fact divided.
While Le Pen and Italy's Giorgia Meloni found reasons to celebrate, the latter is also close to van der Leyen and hesitant to support a more radical group of parties in the European parliament. Far right parties are also divided over the war in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky is worried radical parties are more likely to be pro-Russian and expressed his concern about the eventual dwindling of support in Europe and elsewhere, but he for now could at least count on the help of G7 summit host Meloni, who has repeated her support for Ukraine and signed on with others to the $50 billion loan Ukraine will receive, drawing on interest from frozen Russian assets.
Not all has been rosy for radical parties, as they failed to gain as many seats as they would have wanted overall. Among them in fact Viktor Orban's party lost a few in the new European parliament. While his Fidesz still won the most votes, the center-right party of Peter Magyar, a former Orban disciple, got just under a third of the vote, making him a domestic challenger in future elections. “This is the beginning of the end,”
Magyar told crowds on election night. That may be so for Hungary, but political observers note the hard right in general has been making steady gains for the last decades in the West, notably among the founding EU members, requiring repeated calls for other parties to unite, as France is once again called to do.
BRISE SOUVERAINISTE
La montée du Parti québécois dans les sondages a fait ressurgir dans le discours politique la notion de référendum et de souvenaineté, même si l'appui de la cause indépendantiste n'atteint pas le niveau de celui d'un parti en bonne posture pour mettre fin au règne de la CAQ au pouvoir.
Le chef du PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, qui hésitait pourtant sur la question dans le passé, gonflé par les sondages, promet désormais un référendum dès un premier mandat. Un référendum présenté comme celui de la dernière chance dans une province qui évolue, et s'éloigne de cette cause démographiquement chaque année. Un choix, selon Plamondon, entre le statu-quo et une éventuelle "disparition" et l'indépen-dance, accusant le gouvernement fédéral d'empiéter dans les compétences de la province.
Mais la notion de sécession a des échos ailleurs sur le continent, dans l'ouest canadien, notamment, en Alberta, mais également aux Etats-Unis, de l'Oregon en Louisiane en passant par le Texas, où certains caressent depuis quelque temps des rêves de "Texit". Car si la notion de "république" de Californie est aussi symbolique que celle du conch (conque) à la pointe de la Floride, elle fait l'objet de projets dans un Lone Star State riche, peuplé, et de plus en plus disjoncté avec ces côtes américaines dites "libérales" dans le sens américain du terme.
La plupart du temps l'initiative dite sécessionniste est celle de régions républicaines cherchant à se distinguer, voire se séparer, de zones progressistes, un peu comme l'Alberta au Canada. Il s'agit notamment de parties de l'Oregon, un état côtier plutôt progressiste, qui se sentiraient plus à l'aise de rejoindre un Idaho voisin plus rural et conservateur. Le genre de redéfinition géographique si critiqué au niveau des cartes électorales.
Dans cet état du nord-ouest 13 comtés républicains seraient partants pour rejoindre un "grand Idaho" plus proche de leur coeur politique et idéologique. Au coeur du pays des poches démocrates peuvent bien exister, et elles peuvent à leur tour provoquer le rejet de coins plus conservateurs. C'est le cas du comté de Weld au Colorado qui rêverait de s'attacher au Wyoming voisin. Des fois ces rêves de séparation sont plus locaux et municipaux, c'est le cas de Lost Creek auTexas, qui n'aimerait rien de mieux que de se dissocier de cette Austin obstinément progressiste, une anomalie dans cet état de cowboys.
Plus à l'est, le quartier prospère de Buckhead se sent parfois mal à l'aise au sein de la métropole de la Géorgie. Un vote prévoyant une dissociation s'est soldé par un échec l'an dernier, car une telle déchirure aurait, craint-on, signé l'arrêt de mort économique de la capitale de l'état. Rêves utopiques pour certains, comme celui de la séparation du Texas, d'autres se sont pourtant réalisés, comme en Louisiane, où St. George, banlieue prospère de la capitale, est devenue incorporée, brisant son lien avec Bâton Rouge.
Entre sécession de l'union et découpage municipal, un autre projet, encore une fois plutôt utopique, est caressé par ses concepteurs. Celui d'un nouvel état tout simplement, entre l'Oregon et la Californie, états démocrates. Cette poche conservatrice du nom de Jefferson, inspiré par le président du même nom, est une idée qui remonte au 19e siècle, et qui comme tant d'autres a peu de chance de devenir réalité.
MON PAYS C'EST L'HIVER?
Détient-elle encore le record si elle est souvent fermée? Certes la plus grande patinoire au monde à Ottawa a été réouverte cette année après le fiasco de 2023 dû aux températures élevées, mais elle ne l'a guère été pour plus de quelques jours, semant à nouveau le doute alors que débutait le bal de neige dans la capitale nationale, sous la pluie, repoussant l'ouverture d'autres sites festifs. Le manque de neige a par ailleurs exigé l'utilisation de canons à neige, un outil à présent jugé indispensable sur les pentes de ski de la région.
Ailleurs, c'est le silence sur les patinoires extérieures des quartiers de plusieurs villes, où les volontaires qui peinent à refaire les surfaces perdent espoir. L'avenir est-il purement artificiel? Pendant ce temps dans le grand Nord, la mise à mort d'un jeune ours polaire maigrichon qui s'était aventuré à Iqaluit a rappelé la précarité de leur situation à l'heure des réchauffements climatiques qui affectent leur manière de s'alimenter, poussant la faune vers les centres peuplés pour survivre.
Au Yukon les températures plus élevées changeaient le tracé de l'annuelle Yukon Quest, en raison de risques associés à certains secteurs du parcours. De l'autre côté de l'Atlantique, le nord se remettait de nouvelles crues alors dans le sud la péninsule ibérique traversait une période de chaleur sans précédent. Barcelone et sa région ont même déclaré, en plein hiver, l'état d'urgence en raison de la sécheresse qui sévit pour une troisième année de suite, apportant des restrictions dans l'utilisation de l'eau des Catalans.
A Mexico le manque d'eau dans plusieurs secteurs de la capitale démesurée a entrainé des manifestations, après des années avec peu de précipitations jumelées à une expansion des constructions sur fond d'infrastructures désuètes. Plus vers le sud le Chili vit un enfer d'été austral marqué par des feux de forêt sans merci, causant plus de 100 décès dans la région côtière de Valparaiso. Inutile de rappeler que 2023 a établi de nouveaux records de chaleur sur cette planête en évolution climatique, et 2024 est bien mal parti: les climatologues prévoient un février de tous les records.
Plus de 140 pays en ont déjà enregistré à mi-chemin du mois le plus court. Plus tôt pendant les fêtes des touristes à Québec qui s'étaient déplacés pour vivre un Noël blanc avaient même menacé la ville de poursuite pour le désolant spectacle d'un hiver retardé. On n'en est plus au premier, et ce ne sera pas le dernier. Les phénomènes climatiques ont d'autant plus été marqués par le passage d'El Nino, créant de nouveaux risques.
C'est le début d'année avec le moins de glace sur les grands lacs nord-américains en 50 ans et certains obervateurs craignent des vagues élevées et des inondations tandis que dans les prairies canadiennes le manque de neige au sol, une période siberienne ayant été suivie par des jours de plus de 15 degrés, laissant craindre une autre saison de sécheresse. L'ouest américain vit d'ailleurs, selon une étude universitaire, une sécheresse inégalée en 500 ans. On reconnait déjà ainsi en 2024 des airs de 2023. Mais certaines régions sont particulièrement frappées.
Selon Niki Ashton, députée manitobaine de Churchill, les routes de glace du nord sont impraticables en raison de la chaleur relative ces derniers temps, semant la détresse dans les communautés, notamment autochtones, qui en dépendent. "Nous avons eu des conditions météorologiques sans précédent au cours des deux derniers mois, dit-elle. La survie de milliers d'habitants de notre région dépend des routes de glace. En raison du temps chaud, certaines routes ne sont pas accessibles et certaines ne le seront pas durant toute la saison."
Elle fait appel à plus d'investissement dans les infrastructures et à plus de mesures d'adaptation envers les changements climatiques. Une demi-douzaine de communautés autochtones alimentées par ces chemins de glace ont déclaré l'état d'urgence en raison du manque de vivres et de carburant. Alors que le gouvernement fédéral dit travailler à mettre en état les routes de glace qu'il peut les communautés exigent des routes permanentes, une facture de 3 millions $ par kilomètre multipliés des milliers de fois.
Les communautés touchées "sont dans l'incapacité de faire venir du carburant et d'autres produits de première nécessité; les routes de glace dont elles dépendent ont fondu en raison du changement climatique, poursuit Ashton. Des milliers de personnes sont ainsi prises au dépourvu."
Souvent dans cette région la glace ne suffit plus pour tenir le poids des ours blancs. Dans ces conditions précaires, tout comme au Nunavik, l'espèce maigrit, change de comportement, tente d'aller ailleurs pour s'approvisionner, multipliant les contacts avec les populations locales, tenant les autorités locales en haleine. Une unité spéciale de la police est en place justement pour intervenir en cas d'intrusion.
Les ours peinent à se débrouiller alors que disparait de la banquise qui leur sert de table à diner, selon une étude de la US Geological survey. "Il y a une limite à la capacité de l'ours de s'adapter," résume Karyn Rode, l'étude montrant une population qui perd du poids à force de manquer de nourriture en raison du rallongement des périodes sans banquise. Plus au sud, en Alberta on prépare déjà une saison qui s'annonce difficile. Les signes? un automne et hiver secs et des températures plus élevées pendant la saison froide.
A l'autre bout du pays des pompiers font des gestes de désespoir, bloquant la rue face au parlement pour exiger la création d'une agence nationale de combat des feux. La période froide est déjà chaude sur plusieurs fronts. En Colombie-britannique pendant ce temps, des événements estivaux étaient soit avancés soit annulés en raison de la sécheresse prévue dans certaines régions, qui craignent une nouvelle année marquée par les feux de forêts. En on est toujours en février. "C'est ce que j'ai vu de plus proche d'une année sans hiver depuis que je suis dans le métier," déclarait récemment le climatologue de longue date David Phillips.
AGE OF INTERFERENCE
It wasn't just an anti-missile shield Europe considered to shore up its defenses in the face of aggression, but an anti-interference one as well as it headed to the polls amid reports of influence campaigns by foreign states. To French prime minister Gabriel Attal such Russian interference should in fact be considered "our Third world war."
The charge came after a number of incidents, among them the laying of coffins at the foot of the Eiffel tower and the arrest of a man suspected of trying to set off explosives, which Paris said was all part of a campaign to destabilize the country for its supports of Ukraine. Moscow has denied the accusations. But meanwhile European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has been touting a "European democracy shield" in the aftermath of a scandal revealing a Russian organisation spent millions of euros in some 48 European countries and beyond funding propaganda.
When it comes to interference campaigns Russia is hardly the only suspect, nor is Europe the only target. Other Western democracies are dealing with the same modern-day scourge, sometimes even pointing the finger at close allies, as they prepared for elections and looked back at previous ones. And in some cases it goes well beyond that. In the more serious cases,
intimidation at home or abroad extended to politicians and well, and sometimes the latter were even accused of aiding and abetting in such influence campaigns. In Canada in fact a recent intelligence report recently concluded members of Parliament were facilitating foreign interference for personal gains. Oddly this came months after some MPs were told they had been the target of foreign interference and intimidation, as an inquiry focused on the topic ahead of parliamentary elections expected any time between now and next year.
The latest bombshell accusations were leaving the country in a state of upheaval as the government refused to name MPs accused of sharing sensitive information with foreign governments, notably China and India. The report refers to "members of Parliament who worked to influence their colleagues on India's behalf and proactively provided confidential information to Indian officials," but doesn't name names, sparking calls for more details by those seeking to root out "traitors". This added layers of controversy months after Delhi was accused of interfering in the most violent way possible, by allegedly sponsoring the assassination of a Sikh critic on Canadian soil.
Needless to say any sign of foreign interference was of great concern to a neighbor which shares sensitive intelligence data at a time of war abroad and struggles with its own cases of interference. Israel, which depends on Washington as its war in Gaza plunges it further into global isolation, has secretly been targeting American lawmakers with an influence campaign on the conflict according to one recent report.
This emerged as the US was already deep into its study of foreign influence campaigns, some going back years. In Canada as well similar reports of foreign interference had emerged in the past, and critics say the government has downplayed them. In 2010 the head of CSIS said the spy agency believed a number of municipal and provincial politicians were "under at least the general influence of a foreign government."
The government has since introduced foreign-interference legislation but the nature of recent allegations question whether parliamentarians in Ottawa are able or willing to investigate their own. At least one former Liberal, now independent, Toronto-area MP, Han Dong, has been singled out in the past by allegations he willingly participated in Chinese interference efforts which may have helped him secure his seat in 2019, something he has denied.
Last fall another Ontario MP, Michael Chong, himself targeted by an alleged Chinese foreign interference campaign, told a bipartisan US committee in Washington "foreign interference is a serious national-security threat to Canada. It threatens our economy, our long-term prosperity, our social cohesion, our Parliament and our elections." He described being the subject of intimidation after he started speaking out against using Huawei technology and Beijing's treatment of Uyghurs. He later learned Chinese officials were collecting information on his relatives in China and was himself threatened on social media.
The Canadian government says it's not its role to release the name of parliamentarians and says authorities have all the information needed to act on it, though some of the intelligence may not be able to sustain the burden of proof. Justin Trudeau recently said he had "concerns" about some findings in the report, noting there were a number of conclusions the government didn't "entirely align with". Political parties however may decide to act on such reports on their own. But influence campaigns can backfire.
Canada said it raised its concerns with the Jewish state after Israeli media reported on a "co-ordinated" and "Islamophobic" misinformation campaign by a private firm on behalf of the Israeli government to sway opinion in the US and Canada. A former Israeli diplomat considered such campaigns, targeting close allies to shore up support at times of criticism about high casualties in Gaza, a high-risk operation. It constitutes an "inappropriate interference in the internal politics of our most important ally," said Michael Oren on allegations the US was targeted, adding it "causes strategic damage to the State of Israel in wartime."
Meanwhile rights groups were concerned about the new foreign interference law passed in Canada, saying the fast-tracked legislation could threaten Canada's charter rights and suggesting that cure may be as bad as the disease.
SENORA PRESIDENTE
The country is reeling from cartel violence and streams of asylum seekers pushing their way north, yet the ruling party easily scored another electoral win in this year's Mexican presidential elections, and even made history in the process.
A woman rose to the presidency for the first time when all the votes were counted, and it wasn't even close. In fact the top two finishers, the candidate of the ruling National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party and her challenger were women, ending well ahead of the rest of the electoral pack as the country of 128 million headed to the polls.
Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, 61, defeated Xochitl Galvez, who leads an eclectic alliance of alliance of opposition parties, with 58% of the vote. "I will not disappoint you," promised Sheinbaum after the results were in. Same party, but new gains for women in Mexican politics notes Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, of George Mason University.
"It's a huge change. A woman president will be an inspiration for women in every single sector of the economy, politics, society and culture." But not everyone is so sure the result heralds a big step for women's rights, citing Sheinbaum's own differeces with the feminist movement as mayor.
And any history-making threatened to be over-shadowed by the unprecedented electoral violence which has claimed the lives of dozens of candidates, one of them killed just hours before the voting got underway, while countless others have been threatened in the course of the electoral year, and even kidnapped.
Around 30 candidates were murdered and dozens faced intimidation in the course of the three-month campaign, which in its late stages was marked by the death of nine people when a campaign stage collapsed. Organizers had to shelve plans for some 170 polling places in regions such as Chiapas and Michoacan due to security concerns as gangs orchestrated their own campaigns of local influence, something national commentators refer to as narcopolitics.
"The ominous spread of organized crime and flourishing cartels is the most daunting problem Sheinbaum will need to confront," told AFP Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank. Not far behind will be dealing with a US neighbor bound to be more demanding if the recently convicted Donald Trump is re-elected in the fall, even if Mexico's relative success handling migrants has recently brought down the number of migrants at the US border. "If he returns to the White House, Trump is expected to double down on his hardline stance on immigration, trade and drugs -- very sensitive issues crucial to the bilateral relationship," Shifter said.
But Mexico itself is a regular source of migrants and cheap labour in the US, a fact not unrelated to the country's struggle with inequality and high youth unemployment. While her win was expected, the size of the victory came as a surprise to many, an indication of the huge popularity of the outgoing Lopez Obrador, who could not run again for re-election this year.
BIENTÔT LE CHANGEMENT?
Le tout-puissant Congrès national africain a-t-il entendu, voire, compris les électeurs? Trente ans après l'élection historique de Nelson Mandela, un vent de changement semble souffler dans la savane sud-africaine, même s'il n'est pas encore suffisamment fort pour détrôner le seul parti qui dirige le pays depuis la fin du règime d'apartheid. Sur fond de chômage, de violence et de lutte contre la corruption, le parti du président Cyril Ramaphosa a obtenu près de 40% des résultats, un plancher depuis 1994 qui coûte à l'ANC sa majorité et l'oblige à aller récolter l'appui ailleurs pour former un gouvernement.
Un besoin d'ouverture qui lui fera sans doute un grand bien mais qui entre temps annonce une période d'incertitude dans ce pays volatile. Est-on à l'aube d'une alternance finalement après ces décennies de domination de l'ANC? Ce premier partage du pouvoir se doit à nombre de facteurs selon Dan O’Meara, professeur à l’Université du Québec à Montréal: "L'Afrique du Sud est dans une crise monumentale à tous égards, dit-il. Trente ans de pouvoir de l'ANC n'ont rien changé, sauf pour une minorité de deux à trois millions de Noirs qui, grâce à leurs liens avec l'ANC, vivent dans le luxe absolu. À part cela, rien ne fonctionne."
Manque d'eau, coupures de courant, et surtout une inégalité socio-économique où les 10 % des plus fortunés détiennent plus de 80 % des richesses, en faisant un des pays les plus inégaux au monde, provoquant la violence des démunis, pour ne citer que quelques exemples.
Egalement au banc des accusés une corruption qui a atteint des sommets depuis la présidence de Jacob Zuma de 2009 à 2018, année durant laquelle il a été forcé à démissionner dans la honte. La corruption c'est l'usure du pouvoir dans un pays dirigé par un parti pratiquement unique depuis des décennies.
"Ce que nous avons vu est que les électeurs sont insatisfaits avec l'histoire récente de l'ANC, résume Melanie Verwoerd, une ancienne députée appartenant au parti. En particulier pendant les années Zuma et celles qui ont suivi." On assiste alors depuis "à une arrogance généralisée et une perte de connection avec l'électeur moyen." Ramaphosa avait pourtant promis "une nouvelle aube", qui ne s'est de toute évidence pas concrétisée. Zuma entre temps s'est présenté sous une nouvelle bannière cette fois, récoltant 14%.
"La manière de sauver l'Afrique du sud c'est en brisant la majorité de L'ANC et c'est ce que nous avons fait," estime John Steenhuisen, de l'Alliance démocratique, arrivée deuxième avec 21%. Pendant ce temps le chômage fait des ravages atteignant près de 33%, un chiffre qui grimpe à 46 % chez les jeunes.
"Il doit y avoir un peu de changement dans le pays, selon Jess, qui à 19 ans votait pour la première fois. Les gens ont besoin d'avoir des débouchés. Il y en a pour les coins riches mais les moins fortunés sont oubliés, ajoute-t-elle. Si on ne les aide pas il n'y a pas d'avenir. One ne peut pas abandonner les gens. Pour les jeunes les emplois sont très rares et plusieurs préfèrent aller à l'étranger y trouver du travail."
Faisant la queue pour aller voter à Johannesbourg, Tlhakiso se disait à son tour préoccupée par "le crime, les questions économiques... (et) tout est si cher, on arrive mal à se payer quoi que ce soit." Et pourtant, il se peut que le résultat annonce quelquechose de prometteur pour cette jeune démocratie, cette dernière atteint même une certaine maturité. "On avait besoin de changement et ce n'est jamais bon d'avoir un parti si dominant," explique Verwoerd.