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Canada's new PM heads to Europe after taking office, distancing himself from US NPU file Photo
Canada's new PM
His party freshly elected, but without a majority, Christian Democratic leader Friedrich Merz wasted no time plunging into the debates consuming Europe as the Ukrainian war began a new year, specifically wondering whether NATO, as we know it, without the usual strong US backing, is on its last legs. The issue never seemed more pressing than after the disastrous exchange between the Ukrainian and US presidents during a visit they were supposed to reach a mineral agreement. Instead the Oval office encounter descended into a shouting match which set the relationship back at a time Kyiv, and by extension Europe, was becoming more vulnerable. The Atlantic alliance had been through crises before, its very need questioned at the end of the Cold War, before new crises emerged, and old ones re-emerged. But now, although needed more than ever, Washington's isolationist posture and overtures to Russia caused alarm, and at the same time prompted questions about why the old continent had not moved more aggressively to bolster its own ranks and capabilities, especially after Russia's previous aggression in 2014. The likely new chancellor of the economic power at the heart of Europe committed to supporting Ukraine and bolster its defenses even before getting into the challenge that is coalition-building. "My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA," he said as electoral results were trickling in. Left to shape a coalition after obtaining 29% of the votes, Merz replaces center-left chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats registered a historic low of 16% after his government collapsed last fall, prompting the early vote. Snap elections have been the norm with other G7 partners, including France and, quite likely, Canada. Like France, Germany has been jolted by an upswing of hard right votes, the Alternative for Germany finishing second with 20% of support, doubling its previous score - the highest score registered by such parties since WWII. But for now it is likely to remain ostracized by mainstream parties. Especially on the matter of supporting Ukraine, the latter speak with one voice. "There is a consensus that... funding for Ukraine has to continue," says Gesine Weber of the German Marshall Fund. "The AfD can on the short term most likely not influence it because there is a large majority of parliamentarians (supporting Ukraine), however the AfD might be able to influence public discourse as the biggest opposition party and then we must see whether there is an impact on public support." The coalition will require weeks to take shape, but Merz, who is trying to get this done by Easter, is determined not to leave a void at such a critical time. European leaders are concerned Moscow and Washington are trying to work a deal to end the war with unfavorable terms for Ukraine, causing uncertainty for the continent as a whole for years to come. This concern grew after the White House clash, but Germany, like other European countries, voiced support for Kyiv. "Germany together with our European allies stand united alongside Ukraine and against the Russian aggression, their defense for democracy and their quest for peace and security in ours," it stated. The first month of the second Trump administration alone has, to say the least, been trying for European leaders, wary of tariffs as well as security disengagement in Europe, while the US shows an unhealthy interest in Greenland. "I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but.. it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe," Merz said. "We are under such massive pressure from two sides that my absolute priority now really is to create unity in Europe." This was almost putting Russia and the US in the same category, and at the UN that certainly seemed to be the case, the US joining Moscow by voting against a resolution condemning Russia's war. Other countries of the continent and alliance wasted no time showing their will to keep supporting Ukraine, France, the UK and even Canada raising the possibility of sending troops to back a ceasefire. There has even been mention of creating a nuclear umbrella for the continent. Turkiye, a member of NATO, was also hoping to have a role in whatever new defense strategy Europe would develop. Regardless of any mineral deals with Ukraine, the White House signaled it would be for Europe to provide security guarantees. These important future investments required in defence will not come cheap. The sluggish German economy has already been a major issue of the election. Another hot topic was immigration as the campaign was marked by a number of violent incidents involving Islamist newcomers, including one attack the last week of the campaign, boosting the fortunes of the AfD, which also counted on the repeated support of US billionaire Elon Musk during the campaign in outbursts German officials have condemned as political interference. Merz criticized this after the election, but hopes Berlin and Washington can still enjoy close ties. The fate of some 35,000 US servicemen in the country, at a time of American disengagement, was anyone's guess. This weekend, days after meeting in Ukraine to voice support for Kyiv, European leaders and Justin Trudeau gathered in another summit in London, announcing a four point plan to defend Ukraine and end the war. Using a formula made famous during the Gulf War, the 18 leaders looked to develop a "coalition of the willing". One that would still need US backing however.
Trudeau's Fall
What now for NATO?
A rare event happened in Canadian history this month. By electing their new leader, Canada's Liberals also chose the country's prime minister, replacing Justin Trudeau at a time of tense trade frictions with the neighbor to the south. In a landslide win Mark Carney, 59, took nearly 86% of the vote in the first ballot, amounting to the coronation of a non-elected official some feared, but convincing enough to rally the troops, including his leadership rivals, to take on Pierre Poilievre's conservatives. Carney in fact welcomed his liberal opponent, Chrystia Freeland, into his cabinet, but not Karina Gould, another one who ran against him. Even before taking office Carney acknowledged facing the current challenges, including an increasingly aggressive US administration “will take extraordinary efforts... We will have to do things that we haven’t imagined before, at speeds we didn’t think possible,” but said he was bullish on the country's future seeing “big changes, guided by strong Canadian values.” The former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England skyrocketed in popularity, quickly becoming the candidate preferred, not only among Liberals but in the country as a whole, to take on Donald Trump, even making the Liberals competitive nationally after being 20 points behind to Tories for the last year. Since the TV debates however that popularity has slipped somewhat, but still makes the federal campaign more competitive than anyone would have thought just a few weeks ago. His difficulty explaining financial dealings have been a target of Conservative attacks, and will remain in the crossfire in the weeks ahead as the country heads straight to the polls. But Carney could become Canada's most short-lived prime minister if he fails to upset Poilievre in the general election. In the mean time Carney wasted no time reaching out to the US administration, before his swearing in, and even received positive signals from Beijing about improving ties. He and outgoing Justin Trudeau agreed on a rapid transition. The latter, who in his final speech said the country of 41 million is facing "a nation-defining moment" leaves the highest office in the land his head high considering the party's downfall in the last year. Trump's tariffs threat enabled him to play the leadership role he had displayed during the pandemic, uniting the provincial premiers and Canadians against the foreign threat from across the border.
The location was familiar and indeed significant, the porch of a cottage in the outskirts of Ottawa where the Canadian prime minister addressed his countrymen with regularity to keep them updated on the fight against the covid pandemic that was keeping them locked up at home. While the setting of Rideau cottage may have harkened back to a time when Trudeau rose to the occasion, leading the country in the fight against the pandemic, it also reminded some members of the public of a difficult period marked by widely unpopular covid mandates and the Emergencies Act, which in time mined his popularity and eventually gave the Conservatives a clear path to victory in 2025. Nearly five years after that health crisis erupted, and nearly a decade after becoming the country's leader, Justin Trudeau chose the same setting to announce he would step down as Liberal party leader to allow someone else to run against the Pierre Poilievre Conservative freight train dominating the polls for over a year. The announcement was by then no longer a surprise and had been widely expected in fact after weeks of pressure not only from opposition politicians, including key partners that helped prop up his minority government, but within the Liberal party as well. After the resignation of a number of his deputy minister and finance minister on the day she was to deliver her fall economic statement, that was too much to bear. "As you know I am a fighter," he said in his first TV address in weeks, adding "It has become obvious to me, with the internal battles, that I cannot be the one to carry the Liberal standard in the next election." He reiterated he didn't think his opponent, whose party is comfortably leading the Liberals in polls, was the right person to steer the country considering his stance on climate change and social policies. It didn't take long for Poilievre to release a video noting every Liberal MP and "potential Liberal member-ship contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years," pointing to high inflation and rising crime as well as the housing crisis. He reiterated calls for an immediate federal election. But Trudeau said he would stay on as Liberal leader until a new one is chosen, launching a snap leadership campaign in an election year marked by the challenge of the incoming US administration. The Conser-vatives have been releasing similar campaign-looking videos of the sort for months, helped by healthy party coffers. Some of the slogans of axing the taxes, fixing the budget and building the homes have already grown old months before an expected early election. Trudeau leaves the political scene undefeated after winning three elections and prolonging his second minority mandate with the help of opposition support, but byelection losses, MP departures and dropping polls brought an end to a leadership initially launched under the international splash of "Trudeaumania". The depar-ture of Chrystia Freeland in December had made staying at the helm untenable. Like other leaders in the West from Britain to the United States next door, Trudeau was swept by the winds of change after a long tenure. Remarkably the prime minister seemed to think the leader eventually chosen by his party would be able to somehow eke out a win in a coming confidence vote, but opposition leaders made plain they would oust the Liberals at the first occasion. Such a vote of confidence is expected as soon as parliament resumes after the current prorogation period, which has shuts down the work of the House of Commons until late March. A new party leader would emerge on March 9th. Soon after Trudeau's announcement potential contenders started joustling for position, among them cabinet members but also the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England; the person who was rumored to take over Freeland's job, prompting her to quit the government in a storm pre-emptively. Time was of the essence for the party to choose a leader in time for an election campaign that looked more and more like a victory lap for the opposition. This did not prevent Freeland and Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor, from tossing their hats into the ring despite slim to non existent chances of success. As consolation, the leadership winner automatically becomes prime minister. Carney could accomplish this without even holding a seat. Freeland, however, runs the risk of repeating the short tenure of Canada's sole female prime minister, Kim Campbell, if she were to win the leadership. Both candidates gave signs early on they may be willing to bring changes to the carbon tax, which is highly unpopular among many Canadians despite delivering regular cheques to those living in participating provinces, taking away a Tory slogan.
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Not all going up
While a number of advanced countries have sought to clamp down on immigration as of late, others are looking to welcome migrants with open arms in view of dropping birth rates. South Korea, which at 0.7% has one of the world's lowest rates and risks seeing its population drop over the next decades, is considering such a shift, ending a history of restrictive policies which have made it hard to move there for work. The East Asian country isn't the only one facing such a dilemma, neighbor Japan, currently home to the world's oldest person, has the same ageing demographics, putting the country on a path of declining population. Portugal and Hungary have turned to immigration to prevent population declines. Even globally the growth of populations is slowing down. It took twelve years for the world to grow from seven to eight billion inhabitants, a milestone reached in the Fall of 2022. It will take slightly longer, a projected 15 years, to grow to nine billion, in part due to lower fertility rates in more advanced countries, as those with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita, leaving growth to be increasingly concentrated in poorer countries, notably in sub-Saharan Africa. Oddly emigration, which is a major issue in these countries as well, is driving population shrinkage elsewhere. Eastern Europe is expected, in the decades ahead, to experience "the most significant population decline, largely due to emigration, with Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Latvia facing over 20% reductions by 2050", according to the World Population Review. Some 40 of 236 countries and territories around the world have shrinking populations, according to data compiled by the CIA's World Factbook. The Baltic states and other Eastern European countries such as Romania and Poland are listed among the fastest shrinking countries, but so are a number of islands, from the Cook islands (shrinking by some 2.2% annually) and American Samoa to Puerto Rico and Micronesia. South Korea's population, currently sitting just above 50 million, could drop by some 20 million inhabitants by 2070 without immigration, according to some projections. But down the road no country faces a population decline like the nation which was until recently the most populated on Earth. And it's desperate to try to do something about it. After decades of limiting couples to a single child, China is seeing its population steadily decline, and the drop could accelerate to catastrophic levels. According to some studies its 1.4 billion-plus population could be more than halved before the end of the century if Beijing doesn't manage to radically change this mindset and put in place policies encouraging couples to have more children, in a complete reversal of decades of one-child policy, which it dropped in 2016. Five years later, in a complete reversal, it espoused a three-child policy, promoting tax and other incentives. Last year it lost two million citizens, the second consecutive year of decline.
Lashing back
The scene was quite moving. On a mid-September day over 100,000 Canadians packed Parliament Hill to honour their neighbors in their darkest hour, a gathering so unique it was eventually marked on a bubble gum card. A few years after that tribute to 9-11, fans were booing the US national anthem at hockey games in protest of the war against Iraq. Relations between the US and Canada have had their ups and downs.
This Winter before tariffs were even in effect on goods exported to the US the damage was already done between the two, even three North American neighbors. Canadians and Americans booed each other's national anthems at sports events and snowbirds cancelled their trips south while a Buy Canadian movement was hard to distinguish from a boycott of US products. It wasn't just the threat of tariffs, which had been hovering for weeks, but the tone of a disrespectful and unappreciative US leader. It also didn't help that the tense-filled early days of February came shortly after Amazon shut down its operations in Quebec.
The online giant denied it had anything to do with a warehouse joining a union, but Quebecers had seen this before from American corporations, from McDonald's to Walmart, shutting down operations after workers elected to express their right to unionize. For many, perhaps just for a time, enough was enough. Ontario put on hold its decision to ban stocking American alcohol in its LCBO outlets, but consumers had made up their mind to drop California wines for European or Chilean ones while Canada provided strong alternatives to the harder stuff.
In fact searching for Canadian substitutes to popular American products became quite the trend, even a national Winter sport, but one not without its challenges. The maker of a baseball cap popularized by Ontario premier Rob Ford with the inscription "Canada is not for sale" struggled to find a domestic manufacturer able to satisfy the surge of some 45,000 orders he soon received. The trade crisis in many ways has shown, as the pandemic had before, how dependent Canada was to foreign manufacturing and processing, from the confection of masks to refining oil. In an ironic twist, the great white north was finding out what some in the US administration were complaining about: the outsourcing of production which had over the years caused many jobs, and in fact capabilities, to be lost.
Lists of substitute items flooded the internet while grocery, liquor and other stores made a point of lining shelves with Made in Canada signs. Their accuracy however sometimes left to be desired, prompting some to develop an app to help consumers determine if a product was in fact made in Canada after scanning the code bar. A movement calling for a ban of Amazon in Quebec over the closure of local operations grew with the rare wave of pan-Canadian patriotism. The neighbors down south, it seemed, had touched a nerve.
Some of it reached surprising proportions: "I have rarely said this in my life but: Go Trudeau! Give them hell, your hour has come!" opined a separatist Montrealer who in normal times would vote Yes in a future referendum. On the political scene premiers lined up behind a suddenly surging outgoing federal leader, his Conservative opponent even briefly going so far as to say something nice about him as he struggled to find his own voice in a national debate which became radically different from what it was just weeks ago. How much of an impact would this have on the election campaign? Certainly the narrative has changed from axing the carbon tax. Who is more likely to be tougher on Trump is now the more probable debate sure to dominate the coming election by many accounts.
And this vote may come sooner rather than later, not just because the opposition promised to bring down the government at the first occasion, but because Liberal candidate Mark Carney, who is sky rocketing in the polls, could call an election right away if he is elected Liberal party leader. But despite the show of unity Canadian leaders are aware there is work left to be done domestically. First Alberta remains an outlier due to its dependence on energy production, and second inter-provincial trade barriers need to go.
Solving that issue may go further than any boycott of American goods, some analysts note, since Canada's internal trade represents the larger share of its GDP. And after all the interconnected nature of production in North America means boycotts could impact Canadian jobs as well. "Supporting Canadian busi-nesses is important, but the approach needs to be realistic and beneficial to everyone," wrote one commentator on Reddit. "Instead of extreme measures, let’s focus on practical ways to strengthen our economy without hurting consumers and small businesses." While some have committed to cutting travel to the US, something which may bring more business to Canadian destinations, "What happens if Americans do the same to us?" he asked.
In Quebec a poll revealed three quarters of participants said they would reduce travel to the US and consumption of US goods. Of course the low Canadian dollar may have played a part in this, one of the many effects of the simple threats of US tariffs - which ironically made them more bearable to Americans by making Canadian imports cheaper. Among the boo birds, there was no doubt everyday citizens pondered their own way of voicing their discontent. Not quite comfortable enough to join the jeers at the Raptors game, Joseph Chua sat in silence instead of standing during Star Spangled banner, and considered other ways to protest.
"We were already talking about what businesses are Canadian, specifically what are American, specifically what to avoid. I definitely will be trying to avoid American products and groceries," he said. And while more efforts are being made by some to read labels in grocery stores more closely to make out where their food comes from, there's also a limit to what some are willing to do in protest. "I will not be stopping to consume US platforms," said one Ottawa resident, drawing the line at cancelling Netflix.
LE VOTE ANNULÉ
L'automne avait laissé le pays, ainsi que le reste du continent, dans un état de choc. Premièrement parce que l'élection avait, contre toute attente, donné vainqueur un inconnu issu de l'extrême doite, puis ensuite parce que le scrutin avait été annulé, soupçonné d'avoir été fortement influencé par une campagne de médias sociaux sans précédent fortement imprégnée d'une ingérence russe. Depuis la Roumanie vit des heures d'incertitude dans un monde plongé dans l'instabilité.
C'en était de trop pour le président Klaus Iohannis, lui qui était déjà menacé de destitution, qui en fin de compte a annoncé sa démission "afin d'épargner à la Roumanie et aux citoyens roumains une crise", en prévision d'un nouveau vote au printemps. Or cette crise bat déjà son plein, même si la nouvelle a été accueillie avec liesse par des manifestants qui se sont emparés des rues, et une opposition, qui n'a jamais pardonné l'annulation de l'élection.
Accusé de mettre en place un véritable "coup d'état" le sexagénaire au pouvoir depuis plus de dix ans a affirmé "n'avoir jamais violé la Constitution". Qualifiant la démission de "victoire du peuple roumain", le vainqueur surprise du premier tour, Calin Georgescu, a lancé: "il est temps de renouer avec l'État de droit. Reprenons le second tour".
Un autre chef de parti de l'opposition a déclaré sans gêne, dans ce pays dirigé sans merci par Ceausescu pendant des décennies: "Nous avons réussi à pousser au départ l'individu le plus arrogant de l'histoire de la Roumanie". Mais l'affaire de l'annulation du vote n'est pas terminée pour autant, la Commission européenne ayant ouvert une enquête sur les accusations de soutien illicite par le biais de Tiktok, une plateforme chinoise qui a fait l'objet de plusieurs enquêtes pour ingérence ailleurs dans le monde.
Entre temps les partis roumains font front commun contre cette montée sans précédent de l'extrême droite, plusieurs partis pro-européens souhaitant présenter un candidat unique: Crin Antonescu. A 65 ans cet ancien président du Sénat pro-européen a été jugé capable de séduire l’électorat social-démocrate et celui des libéraux.
"Il a fallu trouver une personnalité qui réunisse les deux électorats," résume le politologue Sergiu Miscoiu, qui le qualifie de "bon orateur". Antonescu s'était déjà présenté à la présidentielle de 2009, terminant troisième. Depuis la chute de Ceaucescu le Parti social-démocrate (PSD) et le Parti national libéral (PNL), tous deux pro-européens, se succèdent au pouvoir, leur exclusion du second tour vient donc bouleverser la donne.
Anciennement affilié à l’extrême droite, Georgescu participe au scrutin en tant qu'indépendant, sans parti ni fonds de campagne, et prononce un discours radical familier qui dénonce la mondialisation, l’immigration, l’OTAN, l’Union européenne, les vaccins de COVID et l'appui financier à l'Ukraine, de quoi plaire à la fronde anti-occidentale et pro-russe du continent.
SCRUTIN ENTRE LES BALLES
Son pays est en pleine crise économique et proie à une violence extrême de la part des gangs qui terrorisent les politiciens et font fuir les touristes, mais le jeune président Daniel Noboa a tout de même crié victoire au premier tour de l'élection écuadorienne, son parti ayant récolté le plus de voix, soit 44,1% du vote, mais pas assez pour éviter un second tour.
La rivale de la gauche, Luisa Gonzalez, qui aspire à être la première présidente élue de ce pays de 17 millions d'habitants, le suit de près avec 43,9%, préparant un second tour encore plus serré que le scrutin précédent il y a 15 mois. Celle-ci serait-elle près de lui ravir le poste lors de ce qui a l'apparence d'un référendum sur son court mandat?
En quelques années le taux d'homicides a explosé de 400% dans ce pays rongé par une guerre au narcotrafic liée à sa situation géographique stratégique sur la route de la drogue latinoaméricaine vers les grand marchés de l'ouest. Plusieurs apprécient cependant les efforts du jeune dirigeant de 37 ans dans ce combat sanglant qui l'a obligé à décréter l'état d'urgence.
Les observateurs huma-nitaires prétendent cependant que l'armée a été abusive dans l'exercice de ses fonctions, notamment après la découverte de la dépouille de quatre jeunes dont les corps calcinés ont été retrouvés près d'une base militaire. Les soldats étaient bien en évidence lors de l'organisation et la logistique du premier tour, alors que la frontière était fermée pendant trois jours. Les militaires voulaient éviter un nouvel assassinat après celui d'un candidat d'envergure lors de la dernière campagne.
"L'Équateur traverse un moment très difficile, je pense que c'est la pire crise depuis notre retour à la démocratie" il y a presque un demi-siècle, estime l'analyste politique Leonardo Laso. Pas moins déterminée à mettre fin à la crise sécuritaire, l'ex-deputée Gonzalez prône une approche différente. "Il est urgent que nous changions le pays, non pas avec des déclarations de guerre, qui ne mèneront nulle part, mais en bâtissant la paix", a déclaré cette dernière. Celle-ci a causé une surprise d'envergure alors que certains prognostics annonçaient Noboa gagnant dès le premier tour.
"Il s'agit d'une lutte à la David et Goliath," dit-elle, ce qui "montre que les gens veulent du changement." L'économie a notamment été pertubée par la crise sécuritaire, qui a découragé les investissements vers ce pays traditionnellement stable et paisible d'Amérique du sud, qui a le malheur d'être coincé entre le Pérou et à la Colombie, grand producteurs de coca. Noboa a dénoncé de «nombreuses irrégularités» lors du premier tour même si les missions de supervision électorale estiment ne pas avoir observé de «fraude» ayant pu « altérer les résultats».
Il estime avoir obtenu un « meilleur résultat » dans certaines provinces que les chiffres du dépouillement officiel, même si le résultat final n'a pas encore été affiché. Le chef de la Mission électorale de L'UE Gabriel Mato, a indiqué pour sa part n’avoir « pas un seul élément objectif indiquant qu’il y a eu le moindre type de fraude» et « regrette profondément » que la polarisation des débats «ait été associée à un certain récit de fraude ». Pour le politologue Santiago Cahuasqui « c’est la première fois » en un demi siècle que l’Équateur « possède un tel niveau extrême de polarisation».
WAR IN 2025
Drones versus drones, targeting communications connectivity and EMP weapons - as war continues to rage in Eastern Europe and global rivalries intensify in a time of shifting world order, offensive action isn't limited to conventional methods such as small arms fire, mortar or tank firing.
At the end of December, the war of the 21st century was in full display in the battle of Kharkiv, in northern Ukraine, where Kyiv's forces sent an all-robotic assault against the invaders in the form of drones in the air supporting automated ground units below, all the tools of Terminator in a war which has claimed thousands of human lives on both sides of the border. While minelaying drones took to the skies gun-armed bots rolled below, some carrying a Browning 12.7 mm machine gun, according to Forbes.
"We are talking about dozens of units of robotic and unmanned equipment simultaneously on a small section of the front," boasted a spokesperson for the 13th National Guard Brigade. Sea drones and terrifying so-called dragon drones, spewing thermite, which is not unlike throwing molten lava onto a battlefield, have been part of Ukraine's arsenal as it uses technology to try to compensate for its dwindling troop levels.
All technology has its weaknesses however, notably radio-waves which, blasted at incoming technology, can fry its electronics before it hits a target. The United Kingdom is notably working to deploy its Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon, which can hit targets a mile away at minimal cost, according to the Telegraph.
“We are already a force to be reckoned with on science and technology, and developments like RFDEW not only make our personnel more lethal and better protected on the battlefield, but also keep the UK a world leader on innovative military kit," said the country's minister for defence procurement last summer. “As we ramp up our defence spending in the coming years, our Defence Drone Strategy will ensure we are at the forefront of this war-fighting evolution.”
It's not yet the great EMP weapon some fear may one day threaten to plunge countries into the stone age, but possible baby steps leading there. In the mean time drone operators are developing ways around the more common defenses put up against them: signal jamming. To accomplish this some UAVs are tethered by the way of an ultra-thin fibre-optic cable than allows them to fly undetected and unhindered by jammers. Ukraine is experimenting with such devices in its war against Russian positions.
"This is a technological war," tells the CBC, a member of the Ukrainian military. "It is our job to develop and stay ahead." This is certainly true to both sides of the battlefield, as Russia has made use of similar devices as well, making the search for ways to neutralize the less-dectable, jam-proof wired drones the new high-tech race of the battlefield. In the great tech battle being waged connectivity is key, and severing it and the cables that make it possible can be a strategy with an impact at the military and civilian level as well.
The recent targeting of undersea cables by suspected Russia-backed and Chinese-backed ships in Europe and Asia are growing threats against the tech infrastructure and connectivity of the West and its allies. Shortly after the new year rang in such a telecommunications cable was damaged off Taiwan just days after Moscow was accused of similar suspected sabotage in the Baltic Sea off Finland, among NATO's newest members. Helsinki seized the ship.
These were among the latest incidents in a string of suspicious activity which included damage to two fibre-optic cables in the Baltic Sea last year near Sweden, another recent NATO member. A Chinese vessel was placed under investigation by Swedish authorities after that incident. The alliance has since deployed new assets in the Baltic Sea in an operation called "Baltic Sentry" to deter such attacks.
Suspected in the Baltic incidents are low-tech saboteur vessels circulating without proper insurance, believed to be behind everything from sabotage operations to efforts to circumvent sanctions faced by Russia since it launched the war in Ukraine. What it lacks in tech this "shadow fleet" compensates in numbers as Russia is suspected of having as many as 1,400 ships. In January a meeting of NATO's Baltic states focused on "measures required to secure the critical underwater infrastructure" and "respond-ing to the threat posed by Russia's shadow fleet," according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Days later an investigation was launched after a cable linking Sweden to Latvia was also damaged.
LE CONTREPOIDS
Se tourner vers l'Europe? Non l'idée n'est pas nouvelle, elle refait d'ailleurs son apparition occasionnellement lorsque le Canada connait une période de tension avec son voisin américain. Il y a déjà cinquante ans un papier du secrétaire d'état aux affaires extérieures Mitchell Sharp proposait une "troisième option" afin de faire face aux tensions apportées par la présidence de Nixon en pleine période de crise économique, celle de faire contrepoids au géant du sud en tissant des liens plus étroits avec les maitres du passé, les nations du vieux continent.
C'était ça ou préserver un statu-quo plutôt intenable ou sinon approfondir les relations avec les Etats-Unis. En fin de compte c'est cette dernière option qui a été retenue, avec le libre-échange bilatéral puis trilatéral, que l'on marque régulièrement lors du sommet Trois Amigos, réunissant les dirigeants nord-américains. Cependant ce sommet n'a pas eu lieu l'an passé, alors qu'il devait être organisé au Canada. Un autre sommet est prévu au Canada cette année, celui du G7 qui regroupe les puissances européennes et le Japon.
Est-ce un signe du besoin de raffermir les liens avec l'UE? Il y a dix ans l'idée a également croisé les esprits alors que l'environnement économique subissait d'importants change-ments, le premier ministre Harper voyant le salut dans la capacité de "diversifier nos liens économiques", son ministre du commerce se penchant sur la perspective de "nouveaux marchés... bien au-delà de l'Amérique du nord" puisque "nous ne pouvons pas dépendre d'un seul marché". Fait intéressant, le gouverneur de la banque du Canada à l'époque, Mark Carney, qui brigue la candidature du poste de chef du parti libéral, et du fait, de premier ministre, s'accordait à dire que le Canada était "surexposé aux Etats-Unis et sous-exposé" à ces autres marchés en pleine croissance.
Avec le temps le Canada a rejoint la Commission de l’Accord de partenariat transpacifique global et progressiste, dont il était le président l'an dernier, et a conclu une entente de libre échange avec l'UE, même si certains membres, dont la France, s'y sont opposés. Le Canada dépend d'un autre pays pour plusieurs de ses biens importés, mais il s'agit de la Chine. Le Canada a même vu naître une nouvelle frontière terrestre avec l'UE lorsqu'il s'est entendu pour diviser l'ile Hans avec le Danemark, mettant fin à des années d'un différend plutôt rigolo.
Mais la menace américaine de l'actuelle présidence, qui n'a rien de si drôle, pourrait-elle pousser le Canada vers l'UE? Il faut dire que le libre-échange avec l'Europe n'a pas plus réduit sa dépendance envers les Etats-Unis (75% du commerce) que le papier de la troisième option. « Du point de vue politique, je pense que c'est invraisemblable, livre à La Presse Justin Massie, spécialiste en politique étrangère à l'UQAM. Mais le Canada pourrait chercher à se rapprocher de manière beaucoup plus profonde avec l'Europe. C'est une idée que je défends depuis des années. »
Un rapprochement à la norvégienne peut-être, fortement intégrée à l'UE sans y être membre. Confronté, comme plusieurs autres pays, à la chèreté, le Canada pourrait se tourner vers le vieux continent en matière de télécommunications, le prix des services cellulaires y étant beaucoup moins cher, ou pour l'alimentaire, Carrefour étant un grand absent du marché canadien, lui qui est si visible en Europe mais aussi ailleurs dans le monde. La chaine Super U a sa seule enseigne nord-américaine... à Saint-Pierre au large de Terre-Neuve. En revanche le Canada pourrait finalement développer son réseau d'exportation energéti-que pour livrer ailleurs qu'aux Etats-Unis, et davantage diversifier la clientèle de ses minéraux. Ou l'idée n'est-elle, encore une fois, que passagère?
ON THE BRINK?
After years of lying precariously on the brink of full-out war over a mineral-rich region amid ethnic tensions, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo moved even closer to a regional conflict following the recent incursion of Rwandan troops in support of M23 rebels as they advanced to seize the Eastern city of Goma.
The new wave of violence sent hundreds of thousands of refugees, not for the first time, fleeing the conflict, displacing a longstanding humanitarian catastrophe compounded by the attacks of multiple rebel groups. Last week East African leaders sought to calm tensions by organizing a summit in Nairobi to bring together the leaders of the two disputing countries, but Congo's Tshisekedi declined to attend.
The conflict has been dragging on for decades in the aftermath of the Rwanda genocide which sent refugees fleeing into neighboring Congo, some of whom Kigali accuses of being behind the atrocities. Kinshasa has accused Rwanda of "declaring war" by sending its soldiers into Congo to back the M23 rebels, which have been supported by Kigali to defend Tutsis it says are being persecuted by Hutus in Congo. Kigali claimed it was acting in a self-defense and accused Kinshasa of harboring actors responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
The recent violence has killed hundreds and resulted in the death of peacekeepers who are part of a mission in place since 1999 to monitor the peace process of a previous conflict between Congo, Rwanda and Uganda. The latest violence provoked protests and unrest in Kinshasa where demonstrators attacked foreign embassies representing countries they say have done nothing to condemn Rwanda's actions.
The international community's intervention had previously ousted the rebels from Goma. While M23 is leading the offensive against Kinshasa's troops, it represents but one of some 100 militant groups active in the country. "The difference today is that it's more than just the M23," explains Rob Kabamba of Liege university. "There's a whole coalition of Congolese groups... whose claims go beyond the usual talk of protecting Tutsis. It varies from the need to improve living conditions to the legitimacy of democratic institutions."
Some groups go as far as to claim the current Congolese government isn't legitimate after what they consider sham elections in 2018 and 2023. Nor is Rwanda the only country eyeing Congo's riches, Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania and even Kenya, which sought to organize the latest summit, are closely following who controls North-Kivu's many resources, notably mineral resources such as cobalt, coltan and gold.
But Rwanda is Kinshasa's main concern and the government refuses to negotiate with the M23, which it considers a terrorist group. "The signs are unmistakable," said Congo's foreign minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner at the UN. "Rwanda is preparing to wage carnage with a brutality which harkens back to the darkest hours of our history." Not willing to let history repeat itself, Tshisekedi vowed Congo's response would be rigorous.
LOIN DE LA PAIX
Presque dix ans après l'accord de paix qui devait mettre fin à la violence en Colombie, celle-ci reprend de plus belle alors que la production de cocaïne atteint des sommets. En janvier le président Gustavo Petro décrétait l'état d'urgence après une semaine d'affrontements terrifiants entre différents groupes de guérilla, faisant 100 morts et 20000 déplacés en quelques jours. Il peut sembler bien lointain cet accord de 2016 conclu avec les Forces armées révolutionnaires de Colombie (FARC), qui se sont mises à épouser une approche plus politique que martiale.
L'Armée de libération nationale (ELN) cependant avait gardé le maquis. Non seulement ces derniers restent toujours actifs, menant à des éclats avec les narcotrafiquants du nord du pays, mais des anciens membres du FARC qui ont repris les armes dans le sud s'opposent à leurs anciens frères de combat, prenant la nation entière en étau. Après des décennies de guerre contre le narcotrafic, celui-ci dicte encore et toujours le cours des événements en Colombie, notamment dans le nord où fleurit cette culture lucrative.
C'est dans cette région, dans le département de Bolivar, où l'ELN se livre à une lutte féroce avec le cartel de du Clan del Golfo, tandis que plus au sud le groupe "Calarca", qui négocie la paix avec le gouvernement, s'oppose violemment à celui d'"Ivan Mordisco", qui rejette ces efforts. L'armée colombienne est en un premier temps spectatrice dans cette montée de violence, s'occupant de venir en aide aux populations prises entre les tirs.
"Nous avons aidé à la sécurité et la logistique et plus de 19 800 personnes ont été accueillies dans des refuges", résumait le général Erik Rodriguez. Les populations civiles ont entre autre cherché refuge au Venezuela, un pays lui-même peu épargné par la crise, qui a ouvert des centres de refuge près de la frontière. Mais si les forces colombiennes ne sont pas encore directement impliquées dans ce conflit mêlant guérilla, narcos et groupe paramilitaires, ça ne va pas durer.
La reprise des violences constitue un échec pour Petro, cet ancien rebelle gauchiste arrivé au pouvoir, comme d'autres avant lui, déterminé à mettre fin aux éclats. Ce dernier a dû couper court les négociations avec l'ELN, qu'il accuse de commettre des "crimes de guerre". Il estime que le groupe a "emprunté le chemin de Pablo Escobar", et par conséquent "a choisi le chemin de la guerre", ajoutant qu'en fin de compte il "aura la guerre".
Un triste dénouement dans ce pays longtemps rongé par le conflit qui tentait ces dernières années de redorer son image par le tourisme. Selon l'ONU la production de coca a augmenté de 53% par rapport à l'année précédente en 2023, représen-tant 253000 hectares de cette culture lucrative dont le trafic a augmenté la criminalité au long de son parcours, notamment en Equateur et au Mexique mais également dans les Caraïbes où une flambée de violence a mis 12 de ses nations dans la liste des plus meurtrières au monde. Il s'agissait de la dixième année de suite que la production de poudre augmentait, remontant aux débuts des accords de paix. Ceux-ci laissent par conséquent de plus en plus a désirer.
BRACING FOR 2.0
Officially the transfer of power in the United States was on January the 20th. But by then the incoming U.S. administration had gradually set the stage for the president's turbulent next four years. Well before inauguration day, Europe, China and the U.S.'s neighbors were threatened with tariffs and the returning leader had toyed with the idea of seizing the Panama Canal, buying Greenland and making Canada the 51st state, leaving analysts to wonder how this combination of aggression and ridicule would shape the years ahead.
Allies were preparing to welcome the new administration with a list of retaliatory tariffs and higher defense budgets to secure the world's largest island as observers pondered how many battles Washington was willing to wage at once and whether this would cause distractions from other pressing crises. But were these still allies, bullied despite their NATO membership in the fashion of the Art of the Deal? The turbulence hit the beltway first and foremost, where lawmakers initially struggled to pass legislation extending funding and averting another government shutdown.
While they were controlling both houses and the Supreme Court, Republicans were in fact divided and fighting amongst themselves in the lead up to the transition, sparking concerns as the new lead up to mid-terms gets underway. By then the look of American and world politics is anyone's guess.
In the days before the presidential transition, anticipating a vengeful final mandate by the businessman, outgoing leader Joe Biden, who had nearly disappeared from the world stage since stepping down as a candidate, raced to pardon his son and a number of prisoners on death row, secured more financing for Ukraine and made pre-emptive moves to protect certain categories of immigrants. He managed to secure an 11th-hour ceasefire in Gaza which would be for his successor to nurture.
Meanwhile controversy swirled over Trump's cabinet picks, leaving him to rethink his initial choice of attorney general, a former congressman facing criminal charges after a House Ethics Committee report alleged he potentially committed crimes, including statutory rape. Trump himself received a light sentence for his conviction in the Stormy Daniels affair. Joining the cast of characters was so-called efficiency czar Elon Musk, whose provocative social media posts were being investigated by the UK's counter-terrorism unit amid concerns the billionaire was looking to destabilize the Labour government.
The Trump adviser labelled British Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips a "rape genocide apologist" and said she should be jailed. Phillips told the BBC that such "disinformation" was "endangering" her, amid reports she was being shadowed by security in her displacements. Germany was no less alarmed by the dual US-Canadian citizen's propping of extreme right wing party AfD.
In his farewell address Biden warned the US threatened to become an "oligarchy" run by billionaires. Meanwhile the southern California fires failed to do what natural disasters usually do, and that is unite Americans to support the survivors. Instead the inferno gave way to finger-pointing by the president-elect, blaming the Democratic governor for his response and raising the possibility of making disaster relief conditional. The battle for 2028 it seems has already begun.
Meanwhile neighbors Canada and Mexico, who have sent firefighters and water bombers to fight the flames, showed the true spirit of regional cooperation, as an administration bent on admonishing them takes over.
GROËNLAND LIBRE?
Après avoir fait bien rire tout le monde, elle a eu un autre effet cette idée saugrenue d'acheter le Groënland, l'ile la plus importante au monde regorgeant de ressources naturelles, comme les Etats-Unis auraient pu le faire avec la Louisiane ou l'Alaska: celui de donner un nouvel élan à cette ancienne idée de se séparer de la couronne danoise.
Avec ses nouvelles connections aériennes, ses ressources encore intouchées et sa position stratégique alors que la planête se réchauffe, ce territoire de 57000 habitants avoisinnant le Canada serait peu peuplé certes, mais plus que d'autres pays insulaires de la planête. Le Tuvalu en compte à peine 10000, pas bien moins que le Nauru ou Palau encore, isolés du monde dans leurs confins océaniques.
"Il est temps de prendre un pas et de former notre avenir, ainsi que de décider avec qui nous allons coopérer et développer des partenariats commerciaux", déclara le premier ministre Mute Egede lors de son allocution du nouvel an. L'idée d'indépendance a fait du progrès depuis 1953 quand l'ile a cessé d'être une colonie danoise pour éventuellement établir son propre parlement. Il y a deux ans le Groënland proposait une première ébauche de constitution.
"Il nous est venu le temps de prendre le prochain pas, dit-il. Comme d'autres pays dans le monde nous devons oeuvrer afin de retirer les obstacles à la coopération - que nous pouvons décrire à titre de boulets du colonialisme - et aller de l'avant."
La proposition de Donald Trump, la seconde en six ans visant le Groënland, a provoqué une levée des boucliers à Copenhague, qui a aussitôt décerné plus d'un milliard d'euros à la défense du territoire de 2 millions de kilomètres carrés, un geste symbolique qui en préparait peut-être un autre.
Plus récemment la première ministre danoise affirmait que "Le Groënland est aux Groënlandais," une déclara-tion qui a fait plaisir aux sécessionsistes. L'Europe n'a pas tardé à réagir également à ces déclarations expansi-onnistes délirantes, s'engageant à protéger ce terrain jusqu'à tout récemment plutôt ignoré.
L'ile est sujette à toutes les convoitises, hébergeant une base militaire et regorgeant de plusieurs minéraux recherchés par les grandes puissances, notamment des matières associées aux technologies de pointe. Mais pour l'instant le Groënland tente de développer son tourisme et dépend toujours de la pêche et des versements généreux du petit royaume européen.
Alors que les citoyens doivent se présenter aux urnes en avril aucune date n'a encore été fixée en vue d'un éventuel référendum sur la question, que propose de soumettre au peuple éventuellement le jeune premier ministre de 37 ans. En attendant la Russie suit avec intérêt les déclarations américaines sur le Groënland, elle qui considère l'Arctique comme sa chasse gardée, y versant des milliards en investissements malgré les sanctions et la guerre en Ukraine. Les enjeux pourraient vite s'y déplacer.
INTO 2025
Days into the new year 2025 is already putting Western democracies to the test. Amid the G7 group of countries alone instability rocks a number of powers from Europe to North America as the new year is ushered in. While Canada's Trudeau government possibly lives its final weeks the incoming Trump administration has already lashed out against political opponents, the media, friends and foe alike.
The US was barely able to escape a government shut down one week before Christmas. In Europe meanwhile Germany and France are in transition as the first goes to the polls and the second tries to avoid a new election call. A bit further away in Georgia protesters are still spilling into the streets after what they view as having been an election interfered with to benefit a pro-Russian candidate.
Ironically, standing relatively quiet amid all this and surprisingly stable is a country usually known for its political chaos, Italy. Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has in fact praised her government as one living a rare period of calm amid the surrounding chaos and upheaval. The boot of Europe has had its share, and others' too, of short-lived govern-ments. Dozens in fact in the post-war era. Meloni embraced this rare moment - fleeting perhaps - of stability "compared to the political turbulence that several large European nations are facing".
France's Macron next door was until recently struggling to form a government after naming a new prime minister in the aftermath of the first removal of the head of government under the current republic. The country is also seized with the crisis in faraway Mayotte, ravaged by a recent cyclone. Germany meanwhile is carrying out its election after the collapse of its government in December, a campaign punctuated by a terror attack which killed five people. The suspect, a 50-year old doctor who came from Saudi Arabia in 2006, was reported as an Islamophobe who praised far-right groups looking to make a historic impact during the election.
Those groups had also collected the praise of billionaire and Trump's so-called "efficiency Czar" Elon Musk, who played no small role in the government shut down debate and will clearly have an influential one in the incoming administration. Musk was condemned by Berlin for election interference after backing the Alternative for Germany far right party, and even compared his public statements to Vladimir Putin's campaign of interference.
"They both want to influence our elections and support the AfD, which is hostile to democracy," noted Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) now sitting third in the polls, going on to say they both wanted "Germany to be weakened and pushed into chaos".
Everywhere countries were bracing for the change of government in Washington, threatening tariffs against its neighbors, China and Europe, but the US was itself in a state of upheaval after a terror attack sparked concerns of copycat incidents and narrowly averting a government shutdown while Maga supporters squared off against Republicans as well as Democrats in the lead up to inauguration day. The latest squabble involved an issue which galvanized GOP supporters.
Some immigration hardliners say visas for skilled workers take jobs away from U.S. workers, but proponents, which include Musk and Trump himself, say America benefits from hiring them as they draw talent from all over the world, talent rivals such as Canada would only be too happy to welcome themselves.
The northern neighbor meanwhile was the first to suffer from whiplash at a time of tariff threats as Trudeau's crumbling government struggled to resist calls for early elections. The first week of January Trudeau called it quits after weeks of turmoil and uncertainty. A week before Christmas Trudeau had orchestrated another cabinet change amid growing calls from both opponents and members of his own party to resign.
This time the NDP was calling for him to step down after months of propping up his minority government, but its leader wasn't necessarily ready to back a no confidence motion initiated by the conservatives. The grumbling has been intensifying within Trudeau's own inner circle, with Liberal MPs pressuring him to make up his mind about whether to resign, while a major business group decried the uncertainty and "chaos" in Ottawa. A majority of caucus members from Ontario "overwhelmingly" agreed he must resign, according to one MP, and others from his home province agreed Trudeau's time had come to step aside. Trudeau said he would resign as soon as a new party leader is chosen to compete in this year's election.
In the meantime Matthew Holmes of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce said business groups were edgy in view of the political drama. "There's just a vacuum right now and there's chaos at the centre," he told the Toronto Star. "We need clear actions from the government and the business community needs certainty."
LENDEMAIN DE DAMAS
Un mois après la victoire éclair des rebelles en Syrie et le renversement d'un régime tyrannique en place depuis 54 ans quel avenir pour ce pays dont le bouleversement a secoué la région? Les premiers signes semblent encourageants après une campagne d'ouverture du régime transitoire en place.
En peu de temps le chef rebelle victorieux Abou Mohammed al-Charaa a échangé sa veste kaki pour un complet avec cravate, abandonné son nom de guerre et choisi plusieurs ministres dont celui des affaires extérieures après avoir rencontré les membres de diverses minorités pour les rassurer. C'est tant mieux car la chute en quelques jours de la maison alawite alors que le monde était distrait par le conflit au Liban, apportait un changement titanesque à une région a présent redéfinie par cet affront aux intérêts iraniens et russes, en partie à l'avantage de la Turquie, qui a soutenu les rebelles.
Alors que les soutiens externes du régime sortant étaient affaiblis par la guerre contre Israel et distraits par le conflit russo-ukrainien, les opposants du régime Assad ont pu mettre fin à une révolte commencée lors du printemps arabe et mise en pause par un cessez-le-feu fragile.
Les scénarios étaient multiples après la chute de Damas: soit un nouvel Afghanistan, sous le régime d'une possible tyrannie islamiste, ou le chaos qu'a connu un autre pays qui avait renversé sa dictature il y a treize ans, la Libye. Al-Charaa, chef du groupe Hayat Tahrir al-Cham, qui dit avoir changé de cap depuis ses débuts extrémistes avec al-Qaida, s'est empressé de mettre en place des contacts avec l'occident et de donner des entrevues, notamment avec des femmes, promettant une approche plus inclusive afin de rassurer les minoritiés kurdes, druzes et chrétiennes.
Etait-ce le genre de promesse sans lendemain qui avait été faite par les Talibans en Afghanistan? "Les gens qui se méfient des gouvernements islamistes en ont peut-être vu de mauvais exemples," assure-t-il. Ce dernier semble avoir convaincu les Américains, qui l'ont retiré de la liste des plus recherchés, même si Washington n'est pas entièrement rassurée à propos de la stabilité du pays. Car des éclats ont tout de même eu lieu avec les fidèles de l'ancien régime.
Les Etats-Unis ont par ailleurs multiplié les frappes contre des positions de l'Etat islamique, jurant que le groupe terroriste ne serait plus hébergé en Syrie, mais l'administration entrante à la Maison blanche sera-t-elle aussi attentive, elle qui cherchera à minimiser ses interventions à l'étranger?
Cette semaine la Syrie recevait la visite des chefs de la diplomatie allemande et française, mais Al-Charaa, qui a nommé un premier ministre intérimaire, a mis en garde qu'il pourrait s'écouler quatre ans avant la tenue d'élections en bonne et due forme. Pendant ce temps des milliers d'expatriés sont sur le chemin du retour, eux qui avaient fui la région en grand nombre il y a dix ans. Ils étaient 17,000 selon Ankara à effectuer un retour depuis la Turquie en premier lieu, malgré les appel à la vigilence des observateurs.
KOREAN DRAMA
In a few hours the damage was done. Protesters had gathered in the streets while special forces were dispatched to the parliament where lawmakers overturned an infuriating declaration of martial law, and within hours the president was facing a first impeachment process. South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol’s hours-long martial law declaration in early December had stunned political supporters and rivals alike and shattered the image of stability and progress of the Asian tiger.
A month later the capital a stone's throw from the famous demilitarized zone is still awaiting the conclusion of this K-pop political soap opera in which lawmakers scuffled with armed special forces, the country's defense minister attempted to commit suicide while North Korean leaders accused their neighbor of becoming a "fascist dictatorship", the Constitutional Court having yet to rule whether, after the fury of events which eventually brought on a successful impeachment, Yoon will be reinstated or formally removed for initiating a rebellion.
In the mean time the acting leader, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, was stirring up controversy announcing plans to veto a number of bills backed by the opposition party, which has a majority in the national assembly. It wasn't long before the opposition impeached him as well, for counselling his predecessor of imposing martial law and refusing to complete Yoon's impeach-ment process. Still following?
There was more, the second impeachment was passed with only 151 votes, lower than the votes required in the first one, causing ruling party MPs to gather in the middle of the voting chamber claiming "abuse of power" and declaring that vote "invalid". They called for the speaker to step down. A third president hence took the helm in less than a month, the minister of finance, all the while the Constitutional Court now weighs on two impeachments.
Meanwhile another court approved an arrest warrant for Yoon, the first time a sitting South Korean president has faced an arrest warrant, but the security detail of the former leader scuffled with police trying to exercize the warrant and in the end managed to prevent his detention. The warrant detailed charges of abuse of authority and orchestrating a rebellion and was issued after Yoon refused to answer three summonses by investigators in recent weeks asking for his cooperation, according to the Corruption Investigation Office.
Yoon is now wanted for questioning in multiple investigations, including accusations of leading an insurrection, a crime punishable by life in prison or even the death penalty in South Korea. According to documents Yoon had allegedly instructed the military to “shoot the doors to break in and remove” lawmakers when they gathered to vote down martial law.“Break down the doors and drag them out!” he allegedly said at the time, according to prosecution summary.
The chaos has driven down the country's currency. With the northern neighbor ramping up rocket production as well as rhetoric and the region living under the threat of war in the China Sea in a period of geopolitical realignment, the moment was hardly ideal for this sort of crisis on the Korean peninsula.
VOISINS ENVIEUX
Après la crainte sénégalaise puis la réaffirmation de son exception, les citoyens des pays voisins d'Afrique de l'ouest critiquent chez eux la lenteur de la transition après les coups d'états, dénonçant l'emprise des militaires souvent sur un fond d'insécurité. Cette prise de courage n'a pas toujours eu les effets espérés.
Alors que l'impatience monte et que les partis politiques et la société civile en Guinée et au Mali faisaient appel au retour à l'ordre constitutionnel après les récents coups d'état, le Tchad et le Togo débutaient enfin leur campagne électorale après un nouveau délai, semant le doute au sein de l'opposition. Si le scénario n'est pas sans rappeler celui de Dakar plus tôt cette année autant se souvenir qu'on n'en est pas au premier report du scrutin. Même cri de coeur des opposants dans un Burkina Faso en pleine tourmente.
Une attaque revendiquée par le Jnim (groupe islamiste), faisait 73 victimes au début du mois. Le gouvernement de transition, comme d'autres également issu d'un coup d'état, annonça du coup le prolongement de la mobilisation générale des citoyens de 18 ans et plus afin de «poursuivre la lutte contre le terrorisme». Mais la société civile s'organise à Ouaga afin de prévoir le retour des civils à la tête du pays de 22 millions d'habitants. Le Front pour la Défense de la République veut engager la transition civile et préparer les prochaines élections, denonçant la "répression" d'une "tyrannie sans nom" ainsi que les civils tués et les enlèvements depuis la prise de pouvoir des militaires en 2022.
Au Mali où insécurité va de pair avec la crise humanitaire, la junte a répondu aux appels de l'opposition avec la suspension des activités des partis et associations politiques "pour des raisons d'ordre public". Elle a également interdit la couverture médiatique de ces partis. Ceci des semaines après ce qui devait être la fin de la période de transition de la junte au pouvoir.
Plus de 80 partis politiques avaient fait appel à la tenue d'élections et à la fin de la période de transition militaire qui a suivi deux coups d'états en autant d'années. Un décret présidentiel avait fixé au 28 mars l'échéancier mais aucune date électorale n'est encore prévue, la présidentielle ayant été reportée sine die. Les organisations proches du pouvoir estiment que la "mission" des autorités n'est pas encore terminée.
Des douzaines de partis politiques dénoncent un "vide juridique et institutionnel" au pays, exigeant l'organisation d'élections "dans les meilleurs délais". Les opposants redoutent l'indépendance de la cour constitutionnelle qui doit doit trancher sur ce débat capital. En Guinée en même temps, les partis politiques exigeaient un retour à l'ordre constitutionnel avant la fin de l'année, un échéancier initialement prévu dont on craint le report là aussi.
Selon Abdoulaye Oumou Sow, porte-parole du Front national pour la défense de la Constitution, rien n’empêche les autorités de la transition d’organiser des élections, et l'opposition menace de ne plus reconnaitre le pouvoir transitionnel si ses revendications sont ignorées. «Si on s’en tenait à l’accord de la Cédéao, c’est sûr qu’à partir de ce mois de mars, on aurait déjà une Constitution, on aurait déjà des élus à la base, notamment, les élections communales et communautaires se seraient déjà déroulées, dit-il. Mais malheureusement, comme la junte n’a pas de volonté, elle n’a rien fait pour mettre en œuvre le chronogramme de la Cédéao.»
Par conséquent l'opposition a proposé une révision constitutionnelle soumise à référendum, ajoutant: «rien ne peut empêcher qu’on parte maintenant aux élections, sauf la mauvaise volonté de la junte qui veut, de manière dilatoire, confisquer le pouvoir. » Même cri de l'opposition au Togo, où l'opposant Jean-Pierre Fabre condamnait le report des législatives et régionales, dont la campagne commence tout juste, de "pure provocation". L'opposition dénonce, autre terme familier, un "coup d'état constitutionnel" avec l'adop-tion surprise et controversée de la nouvelle Constitution.
Le ministre de la fonction publique se défend: « Il est nécessaire d’établir les principes de fonctionnement de la nouvelle législature avant qu’elle ne soit mise en place ». Mais là comme ailleurs dans la région, on est à bout de patience. Car pour l'opposition, la nouvelle Constitution laisse à désirer et cache une intention bien claire: «Personne n'est dupe, déclare l'opposant Jean-Pierre Fabre, accusant le président de vouloir échapper aux limites de mandat et d'ignorer l'opinion de la population.
Le Togo est devenu le champ d'expérimentation d'une poignée d'affairistes africains.» Pendant ce temps le président et chef de la junte tchadien Mahamat Idriss Déby tentait de se faire rassurant à propos de la limite de deux mandats successifs: "Je vais respecter la constitution", dit-il. Mais l'opposition dénonce la position moins que neutre de l'armée. Là également, beaucoup semble se jouer dans les casernes.
AFFORDABLE THREATS FOM ABOVE
They menacingly crisscross Eastern European and Middle Eastern skies, and far beyond. Increasingly the weapon of choice for low budgeted forces from Yemen to Ukraine, drones have been multiplying over the battlefields of the planet.
So Myanmar's military junta need not have been so surprised when they showed up over the capital Nya Pyi Taw this month as the insurgents of the government in exile launched a coordinated attack in its ongoing war against the regime that once welcomed and later removed Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. In terms of military operation it had limited success, it was certainly less effective than previous attacks along the country's borders with India and China which extended the group's territorial claims over large swaths of the country.
The exiled national unity government claims it controls 60% of the 676,000 sq. kilometre nation of 54 million. But the victimless aerial attack on the airport and military installations allowed it, like Ukraine's armed forces or Yemen's Houthi's, to extend its reach and hit targets further away, amid a period of anxiety for the regime. And the anti-coup forces had a reason to rejoice days later after capturing another key town on the eastern border with Thailand.
Troops surrendered in the town of Myawaddy, a strategic location where most of Myanmar's overland trade with Thailand takes place. The junta's war, ongoing since Suu Kyi was removed from the government in 2021, has forced authorities to enforce manda-tory conscription, including not only young able bodied men but women as well, amid reports of high levels of defection. Joining the anti-coup forces is an embattled group which has been fighting for self-rule since the country's independence in 1948, the Karen National Union. It has helped train fighters from all over the country.
Drones are now adding a new dimension to the conflict, but other high-tech tools are also taking over the battlefront. In the war in Ukraine artificial intelligence is increasingly being used to avoid Russian jamming, which seeks to prevent drone attacks, but also to help find targets, collecting all sorts of data including social media postings and other less publicly available information. The strike of a humanitarian convoy in Gaza however, which the Israeli military admitted had been an error, was also reportedly the result of AI searches for targets, bringing to light the imperfections and risks involved.
Drones themselves are not always ideal tools of the battlefield. According to the Wall St. Journal many US-manufactured drones sent to Ukraine malfunc-tioned due to glitches or were countered by Russian jamming, making Kyiv consider an alternative supplier: China.
The alternative is also cheaper, making it an option for one-way missions where drones are used as explosive-strapped kamizakes in a conflict that is decimating huge stockpiles of the device. China may in fact be feeding both sides of the conflict with its technology and more affordable prices. In multiple areas of the country, Myanmar has become a war of drones, notes analyst David Scott Mathieson.
"It appears that the fixed-wing drones are craft-manufactured, possibly from established kits or through 3D printing, which various resistance forces have been using for some time," he writes in the Asia Sentinel. Armed groups are assembling drones "by studying YouTube videos and sourcing online shopping options. These are then modified by young technicians from tech-savvy resistance fighters who have modified quadcopters, multi-rotor drones, and fixed-wing craft, attaching mortar rounds to bomb SAC bases, convoys, and personnel, and in a number of dramatic incidents also helicopters."
They may not have been inflicting mass damage or casualties, but are having an impact on already slipping morale in a conflict the regime has encountered numerous losses.
LE SOULAGEMENT
Après les émeutes et la rage, la liesse au Sénégal. Les incidents de l'hiver n'étaient-ils qu'une étape, fâcheuse mais nécessaire, de l'évolution de cette hésitante démocratie à saveur Yassa, qui aime se placer au bord du gouffre pour mieux se justifier?
Le lendemain de l'élection déjà le candidat du pouvoir, qui espérait au pire un second tour, avouait la défaite et félicitait l'opposant Bassirou Diomaye Faye pour sa victoire au premier tour (54%). Les partisans de ce dernier n'avaient pas attendu les résultats officiels pour manifester, avec joie cette fois, le sacre d'un personnage qui avait été en prison quelques jours plus tôt.
"En m'élisant président de la République, le peuple sénégalais a fait le choix de la rupture," déclara l'ancien inspecteur des finances publiques, protégé du populaire Ousmane Sonko, qu'il a nommé le chef de son gouvernement. Les deux rendaient récemment visite au président sortant tout sourires, comme si les derniers mois appartenaient déjà à un passé lointain digne d'un conte d'Amadou Koumba.
La victoire du candidat anti-système n'a évidemment pas plu à tout le monde, notamment les partisans de la continuité et du camp d'Amadou Ba, sous le choc. Dix-sept candidats en tout participaient à cette course - un vrai sprint en raison du calendrier écourté - à la présidence lors de ce scrutin finalement tenu un mois plus tard que prévu, mais au moment d'aller voter l'exercice s'est fait dans le calme et l'enthousiasme, des taux de participation importants étant enregistrés tandis que la paix régnait autour des bureaux de scrutin.
Selon l'analyste Babacar Ndiaye "Le Sénégal a toujours été un phare de la démocratie" et l'élection aura perpétué cette tradition. "A chaque fois que nous ayons pu craindre des moments difficiles, au bord du précipice, le peuple a pu manifester son opinion dans les urnes." Le dur chapitre de l'hiver semblerait donc déjà derrière nous, alors qu'on craignait un coup d'état constitutionnel, le genre de langage qui a mieux sa place ailleurs en Afrique.
"C'est bien parti pour que cette page (de période de trouble) se tourne bien", s'accorde à dire à France24 l'analyste Christophe Bois-bouvier, prenant note de l'"attachement des Sénégalais au droit, à la loi... c'est cela qui a permis au conseil constitutionnel de prendre le dessus" sur la volonté de reporter l'élection à la fin de l'année.
A présent, les attentes sont importantes suite à l'assermentation cette semaine du plus jeune président de l'histoire du pays alors qu'il traverse une période de chômage élevé. Promettant de rester un allié «pour tout partenaire qui s’engagera, avec [le Sénégal], dans une coopération vertueuse, respectueuse et mutuellement productive » il s'en engagé à prioriser la « baisse du coût de la vie », la « lutte contre la corruption » et la «réconciliation nationale ». Il devra le faire en forgeant des alliances car son parti n'a pas de majorité à l'assemblée.
IS MACRON WRONG ON TROOPS?
At a time NATO raises the Swedish flag at its headquarters in Brussels and closes its growing ranks to show a common front more than ever in the face of Russian aggression, did the French president go too far suggesting combat boots on the ground can't be excluded in the future if the invaders break through defense lines?
This did not fail to further enrage a Kremlin threatening to use strategic weapons if further NATO involvement follows, as Russian troops threatened to overcome Ukraine's Eastern defences. As leaks from German communications suggest foreign troops have already been aiding Ukrainians to train on their home soil, and as Canada and other countries hint sending troops for this sort of non-combat role may be future options, the West is dangerously coming close to a possible line in the sand on the Eastern front.
While Russia's actions have been catalysts for a strengthened Atlantic alliance, which added a 32nd member when traditionally neutral Sweden formally joined its ranks this month, NATO has faced a number of internal divisions among members, and this is but the latest as Emmanuel Macron refused to walk back his comments on possible ground involvement. Other NATO members distanced themselves from these suggestions, but they were not without echo.
Poland's foreign minister Radek Sikorski agreed the presence of NATO troops "is not unthinkable", deepening the debate among members at a crossroads at a time the continent is pressured to shore up defenses in case it must contend with an American partner less willing to support Ukraine after November's elections. In terms of lines in the sand they have been shifting steadily during the war.
NATO's fears sending battle tanks would trigger wider war gave way to similar thoughts about providing fighter jets and other heavy weaponry. Foreign troops on the ground are already a reality, according to the leaked German conference call which referred to the assistance of British and French personnel in Ukraine. Berlin resisted addings its troops by fear of bringing the conflict to a point of no return.
“The issue of sending European forces to help Ukraine was never one to be dismissed — it was always a possibility,” noted Phillips O'Brien a professor of strategic studies at Scotland's University of St. Andrews. “In fact it has become more of one as the USA has stepped back and withdrawn aid. Europe is now faced with a terrible dilemma — watching Ukraine potentially run out of ammunition, or stepping in and helping Ukraine more directly.”
Determined to support Kyiv, French lawmakers approved a security agreement with Ukraine last week. Paris didn't stop there. Soon after Moldova's Russian break-away enclave called for Russia's assistance, in a scenario not unlike the lead up to the invasion of Eastern Ukraine, Macron said France had the small West-leaning country's back, in a continuing act of defiance toward Russian aggression.
France signed a security agreement with Moldova whose break-away republic of Transnistria is home to some 1500 troops and a nationalist Russian minority implanted there by Josef Stalin, who had done the same in Crimea. A century after the Russian revolutionary took the helm of the great Soviet Union, the impact of his policies are very much in evidence today.
LE DRAME DE GAZA
Tôt ou tard il fallait s'attendre à ces scènes épouvantables d’innocents affamés écrasés par d'autres à Gaza qui ont depuis longtemps dépassé le point de désespoir pour se ruer sur la nourriture qu’on peut leur lancer ou leur larguer sur la tête en se sauvant, comme des bêtes, des prisonniers faméliques, ce qu'ils sont devenus après des mois de siège. Le voisin égyptien construit d'ailleurs un mur encore plus haut pour enclaver davantage un triste territoire coupé du reste du monde depuis des lunes malgré un accès, illusoir, à la mer.
L’offensive de Gaza qui n'en finit plus est allée trop loin, ça fait déjà des semaines qu’on le crie dans les rues du monde entier. La cour internationale parle même d'un risque de génocide. Après cette destruction systématique de Gaza com-ment espérer un bonvoisinage éventuel entre ces deux communautés déchirées? Comment vivre avec quelconque illusion de paix dans n’importe quel scénario d'avenir?
Trente mille morts plus tard on a presque oublié l’élément déclencheur, justificateur, si c’est bien le mot à employer. Voilà déjà des semaines que ni courant, ni aide ou eau suffisante, ne circule dans ce laboratoire de la misère humaine, plus un quartier ou une ville, mais bien un territoire entier devenu un camp de réfugié sans possibilité de refuge. Un dépotoir de débris contrôlé par des milices qu'on n'a plus la force de défier.
On n'est plus au bord de la famine, qui menacerait des centaines de milliers d'habitants, un quart de la population en tout, on y est déjà. Car les victimes, non des bombes, des tirs - bien que certains aient eu lieu lors d'une livraison de nourriture catastrophique et mortelle -, du manque de médicament ou de l'écroulement de ce qui peut rester d'infrastructure, mais de malnutrition, sont déjà comptées. Au moins une douzaine d'enfants, pourtant les premiers à devoir être nourris quand les parents passent leur tour, sont morts de faim à Gaza.
D'ailleurs alors que la mortalité infantile atteint son plus bas niveau dans le monde, plus d'enfants sont morts à Gaza depuis le début de la crise que pendant les quatre années antérieures. Cette semaine l'ONU affirmait que les restrictions à l'aide "pourraient constituer du crime de guerre". De son côté le secrétaire d'État américain Antony Blinken affirmait que "Selon la mesure la plus respectée en la matière, 100 % de la population de Gaza est dans une situation d'insécurité alimentaire grave. C'est la première fois qu'une population entière est ainsi classée".
Et quand cette misère cessera, si ce n'est pas avec la mort, ce sera sous un état de siège total, selon les plans du premier ministre israélien, qui s'attire dorénavant les reproches de ses propres alliés. Début mars, la vice-présidente américaine elle-même faisait appel au cessez-le-feu durant le ramadan, mais quelques semaines plus tard on l'attend toujours. Une frappe israélienne durant cette période importante du calendrier musulman fit encore une soixantaine de victimes, un drame presque devenu banal.
En attendant Washington multiplie les efforts, parachutant de l'aide humanitaire encore insuf-fisante et en quantité qui n'a rien à voir avec le passage d'un seul convoi humanitaire, et s'engage à construire un quai pour recevoir une aide future par la mer. Mais cela prendra des semaines à compléter. En attendant un pont maritime était en développement vers Chypre, pas pour y évacuer femmes et enfants, mais pour faire transiter l'aide humanitaire afin de retrouver une certaine humanité. Par ailleurs on levait la suspension du financement de l'Office controversé de secours et de travaux des Nations Unies pour les réfugiés de Palestine pour le Proche-Orient.
Mais rien pour changer cette souffrance continue à court et moyen terme, ou proposer quelque solution de sortie de crise. Car le premier ministre Netanyahou promet de poursuivre l'offensive à Rafah, lieu de refuge de centaines de milliers ayant été évincés ailleurs dans la bande, malgré les condamnations interna-tionales. Le président américain affirmait même que Bibi "fait plus de mal que de bien à Israël" alors que d'autres font appel à la tenue de nouvelles élections dans le pays hébreu.
Et même si l'offensive s'arrêtait maintenant, les conséquences de ces mois de bombardement feront des victimes pendant plusieurs années encore. "On estime que 45 000 bombes ont été larguées sur la bande de Gaza lors des trois premiers mois du conflit, résume Anne Héry de l'organisme Handicap International. Or, en se basant sur un taux d'échec se situant entre 9 et 14 %, il est possible que plusieurs milliers de bombes n'aient pas fonctionné comme prévu et qu'elles n'aient pas explosé à l'impact et se retrouvent disséminées dans les ruines et sur toutes les surfaces du territoire".
LATIN AMERICA'S CONTESTED BORDERS
It hasn't been easy trying to gather security forces for an eventual international operation to stabilize gang-infested Haiti. First the country that would lead the mission, Kenya, has hit a snag, and when the issue of sending troops came up in Belize's parliament some may have been surprised by the reaction of opposition leader Shyne Barrow, who asked: "You want to go to Haiti while at the Sarstoon (river border area) Guatemalan armed forces are undermining our soverei-gnty?"
The argument may have been a valid one considering the tiny Central American country's military is limited to about 2,000 personnel in uniform. But what it also did was raise a longstanding border dispute that festers between the two neighbors, not just since the country's independence in the 80s, but going much further back to the 19th century and British rule. Like the Venezuelan dispute with neighboring Guyana, the matter has since been raised and remains unsettled at the International Court of Justice, leaving things to be fiercely debated locally and politically exploited.
As a result cries are now rising in Belize about the lack of government will to tackle the dispute against the much larger neighbor of some 18 million (nearly 40 times its population). As a result some have resorted to launching citizen patrols of the waterways mentioned by Barrow, which have since created enough of a stir as to send Belizean soldiers man a local outpost, but without bringing the issue any closer to being resolved.
In Latin America, this is yet another border dispute raising tempers without ever inching closer to a solution. Sending soldiers to defend the Belize border is hardly new, as the British did the same just under a century ago in what is arguably one of the oldest border feuds on the continent. With Belize's independence Guatemala's territorial claims were silenced somewhat for a time, it even eventually recognized Belize's independence in the 1990s, but by the end of the decade the dispute was again being raised, sending troops back at the border.
While the matter is now at the hands of international justice, long delays, as in the case of Guyana's Essequibo region further south, have left the dispute alive to fester. In fact Guatemala's government has suggested for years that the country's maps should include Belize. "Guatemalans have been brought up to believe that part of their country was stolen by the British," tells the New York Times historian Victor Bulmer-Thomas.
For a small region the continent's umbilical cord has seen a number of territorial disputes over time. El Salvador and Honduras are two other countries which have sparred over their border, another fault-line of former British and Spanish colonial masters. This is further raising instability as the region reels with drug-related violence fueling an exodus of migrants heading north to the US border.
As for Haiti, it awaits the arrival of foreign security forces after a Nairobi tribunal halted the dispatching of 1000 Kenyan poilice officers in January. The crisis there surpasses any border issues elsewhere, having killed 5000 in 2023.
APRÈS NAVALNY
Ebranlée par la nouvelle du décès soudain de son mari, Ioulia Navalnaïa n'a eu besoin que de quelques minutes pour choisir ses mots et s'adresser aux participants d'une conférence sur la sécurité à Munich où elle était de passage. Les responsables, et on sait bien de qui il s'agit, auraient des comptes à rendre, et pour ceci elle faisait appel à la communauté internationale pour lui prêter main forte.
Cette dernière, la mort d'Alexeï pas encore confirmée, s'est empressée de condamner son décès dans un pénitentier en Sibérie, car on connaissait depuis longtemps la faiblesse physique du bagnard le plus reconnu et le refus de lui porter toute aide médicale. Cette incarcération avait été une mise à mort, car on connait le sort réservé aux opposants du régime, qu'il soit question d'anciens espions, de mutins de la dernière heure ou d'opposants politiques. La liste s'est allongée depuis la mort de Alexander Litvinenko, empoisonné au polonium en 2006.
L'an dernier c'était au tour de Yevgeny Prigozhin, le patron de Wagner, proche de Poutine jusqu'à la mutinerie de ses mercenaires. L'écrasement mystérieux de l'aéronef le transportant était dans la tradition des morts étranges d'opposants du régime à travers les années, pas immédiatement après leurs actes contre le régime, mais quelque peu plus tard, à l'abri des regards.
Journalistes, politiciens, oligarques même ou anciens espions, les victimes sont nombreuses, certains ayant presque la chance de se retrouver derrière les barreaux, d'autres dans un lit d'hôpital, comme l'ancien agent double Sergei Skripal, qui survécut à un empoisonnement, comme Navalny avait pu le faire en 2015. Malgré ce sort, c'est avec aplomb et le courage de son mari que Navalnaïa annonçait "poursuivre le combat" des opposants de Poutine, du moins ceux qu'il reste, quelques jours après le décès, mais au vu de sa sortie immédiate dans les premiers instants, cette décision pouvait paraître sans surprise. Car Moscou avait mis à mort un martyre dont le travail ne risquait pas d'être si tôt oublié.
Les critiques du régime, qu'elles en veulent au Kremlin pour l'envoi de leurs jeunes au front ou pour leur refuser le droit de parole, ou même de pleurer leurs morts sur la place publique, auraient une nouvelle incarnation de l'espoir aux heures sombres de Vladimir Poutine, alors qu'on faisait déjà le deuil de tout ce qui pouvait rester d'opposition en Russie. Les centaines incarcérées pour avoir osé poser des gerbes de fleur à la mémoire du défunt, ou pleuré les soldats envoyés au front en Ukraine, auraient une personne à suivre, un idéal à entretenir.
«Avec lui, (Poutine) a voulu tuer notre espoir, notre liberté, notre avenir, dit-elle alors, je poursuivrai l’œuvre d’Alexeï Navalny. Je continuerai pour notre pays, avec vous. Et je vous appelle tous à vous tenir près de moi, poursuit-elle. Ce n’est pas une honte de faire peu, c’est une honte de ne rien faire, c’est une honte de se laisser effrayer ». Et vaincre la peur c'est rassembler non seulement les amis d'Alexeï, ses supporters, ceux qu'il a pu inspirer, mais ceux qui en veulent à Poutine pour les sanctions, les fils au front et les frontières fermées.
En cette veille d'élection bidon, une opposition tente encore et toujours de se lever pour signaler sa présence. Navalnaïa aura-t-elle un impact de l'étranger cependant? Voilà qui reste à voir, car ces actes exigent le sacrifice ultime de rester fidèle à la nation. Navalny lui-même n'était-il pas rentré chez lui après sa récupération à l'étranger malgré tout? Mais un acte de courage, comme on sait à quoi elle s'expose déjà, peut en inspirer d'autres.
Lui-même dans une prison russe, Ilia Iachine accuse Poutine de meurtre et compare son régime à une organisation mafieuse. Les risques associés à ce genre de déclaration sont d'autant plus importants quand on est déjà sous les verroux. Et ils ne sont pas limités à la Russie de Poutine. Le voisin biélorusse n'est pas moins oppresseur et revanchard. Quelques jours après le décès de Navalny c'était au militant d'opposition biélorusse Igar Lednik de périr en prison où il purgeait une peine pour «diffamation» du président Alexandre Loukachenko.
Plus d'un millier de prisonniers politiques sont incarcérés chez celui que l'on a longtemps dénommé le dernier despote d'Europe, grand ami de Poutine. Si les méthodes de répression chez les deux voisins sont similaires, la réaction des opposants l'est aussi. L'activiste biélorusse Syarhei Tsikhanou-ski une fois en prison, c'est sa femme Sviatlanta Tsikhanou-skaïa qui a porté le flambeau de la résistance.
A présent dirigeante des forces démocratiques bélarusses et cheffe de file du cabinet de transition unie, cette dernière était elle aussi à Munich le jour où on a appris le décès de Nalvalny et partagea ses condoléances avec Navalnaïa. Comme elle, Tsikhanouskaïa s'était placée à l'avant plan après l'arrestation de son mari, obtenant un résultat étonnant lors de la présidentielle de 2020 avant de devoir s'exiler.