Milano-Cortina Winter Games get underway, spotlighting the Italian Alps NPU file photo
Removing Maduro
As world leaders reacted to the snap operation which led to the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces, there was mixture of joy and concern. Joy that a long time dictator had been removed, perhaps sending a signal to others as the Ukrainian president quipped: "If you can do that with dictators, then the United States knows what to do next." But mostly concern that those wild rants about moving against foreign countries, some of which include allies, were just the first shot in negotiations under the Art of the Deal. "We are a superpower, and under president Trump we are going to conduct ourselves as a superpower," stated Homeland Security advisor Stephen Miller, who has spearheaded everything from the controversial immigra-tion crackdown to the country's aggressive foreign policy. "I think we're witnessing an act of imperialism in our hemisphere," former Canadian foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy said of the operation in Venezuela, adding the U.S president "has basically made it very clear he runs the hemisphere and will do what he wants." Germany's president warned the world shouldn't be allowed to turn "into a den of robbers where the most unscrupulous take whatever they want, where regions or entire countries are treated as the property of a few great powers". Even Volodymyr Zelensky had to see the removal of Maduro as troublesome, considering the message it was sending to Russia and China. The operation in Caracas very quickly turned the attention to other countries of interest mentioned by the U.S. president over time. And the list of potential targets only seemed to grow. As Maduro made his first court appearance in New York, leaders from Cuba to Iran and Mexico to Denmark were condemning not only Washington's incursion but threats directed towards them by the U.S. administration. Mexico City and Bogota reacted strongly to hints the U.S. could intervene there as well to fight drug trafficking, an excuse used to capture Maduro on drug charges despite the fact Washington made its intent on the oil industry plain. Colombian President Gustavo Petro dared the U.S. to mount a similar attack: "Come get me, I'm waiting," he taunted. Of greater concern perhaps was Denmark's warning that a take over of Greenland, which belongs to a NATO member and already has important defense deals with Washington, would "be the end of everything", after Denmark's prime minister asked the U.S. president to stop provocations, including recent statements the US "had to have Greenland." This is all forgetting about a country Washington had recently threatened to strike if its leadership cracked down on protests taking part across the country. In fact people waking up on Jan. 3 may have thought Iran had been the subject of US military action, not Venezuela, after the U.S. president had warned this country which had been the subject of previous U.S. strikes. This growing list of potential targets should come as a surprise to the president's supporters, many of whom had applauded promises of lesser involvement in foreign conflicts and not acting as the world's policeman. The seizing of Venezuela-linked boats quickly followed the incursion into Caracas. Democratic opponents, who hope to score new seats in this year's mid terms, noted the Venezuela attack took place after the partial release of the files pertaining to late pedophile Jeffrey Epstein were dominating the headlines and at a time millions of Americans were struggling to deal with higher health care costs after the end of Obamacare subsidies. More confusingly the latest threats against Greenland were being uttered as the Europe and US were agreeing on security guarantees should a European force defending Ukraine come under attack. The issues may be linked as Trump’s former Russia adviser said Moscow offered U.S. free rein in Venezuela in exchange for Ukraine. In the mean time however concerns of a clash with Colombia lessened as both leaders had a phone conversation that lowered tensions and even ended in an invitation to the White House. Would that scene itself be serene and cordial or spiral into the catastrophic meeting with Zelensky last year? The only sure thing seemed to be the inconsistency of U.S. foreign policy as the world entered another year of uncertainty.
OLYMPIC WIRE
The IOC warned protesters to stay within the law after another evening of violent clashes with police. Italy still leads the tally on the medals leader board. It has 9 medals after 2 days of competition. The most it ever collected was 17 in Beijing. ALPINE SKIING: Men's team combined G: Switzerland S: Austria B: Austria Men's downhill G: Franjo von Allmen (SWI) S: Giovanni Franzoni (ITA) B: Dominik Paris (ITA) Women's downhill G: Breezy Johnson (USA) S: Emma Aicher (GER) B: Sofia Goggia (ITA) CROSS COUNTRY SKI Men's skiathlon G: Johannes Hoesflot Klæbo (NOR) S: Mathis Desloges (FRA) B: Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NOR) Women's skiathlon G: Frida Karlsson (SWE) S: Ebba Andersson (SWE) B: Heidi Weng (NOR) SPEED SKATING Women's 3000m G: Francesca Lollobrigida (ITA) S: Ragne Wiklund (NOR) B: Valérie Maltais (CANADA) SKI JUMP Women's normal hill G: Anna Strøm (NOR) S: Nica Prevc (SLO) B: Nozomi Maruyama JPN) SNOWBOARD Big Air G: Kira Kimura (JPN) S: Ryoma Kimata (JPN) B: Yiming Su (CHN) Women's parallel giant slalom G: Zuzana Maderova (CZE) S: Sabine Payer (AUS) B: Lucia Dalmasso (ITA) Men's parallel giant slalom G: Benjamin Karl (AUT) S: Sangkyum Kim (SKR) B: Tervel Zamfirov (BUL) BIATHLON Mixed 4x6km relay G: France S: Italy B: Germany SPEED SKATING Men's 5000m G: Sander Eitrem NOR) S: Metodej Jílek (CZE) B: Riccardo Lorello (ITA) LUGE Men's singles G: Max Langenhan (GER) S: Jonas Müller (AUT) B: Dominik Fischnaller (ITA) FIGURE SKATING Team Event G: United States S: Japan B: Italy FREESTYLE SKI Women's slopestyle G: Ailing Eileen Gu (CHN) S: Mathilde Gremaud (SWI) B: Megan Oldham (CANADA) SPEED SKATING Women's 1000m G: Jutta Leerdam (NED) S: Femke Kok (NED) B: Miho Takagi (JPN) SKI JUMPING Men's normal hill individual Philipp Raimund (GER) S: Kacper Tomasiak (POL) B: Ren Nikaidō (JPN)
A warning shot?
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Looking elsewhere
As world leaders reacted to the snap operation which led to the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces, there was mixture of joy and concern. Joy that a long time dictator had been removed, perhaps sending a signal to others as the Ukrainian president quipped: "If you can do that with dictators, then the United States knows what to do next." But mostly concern that those wild rants about moving against foreign countries, some of which include allies, were more than the first shot in nego-tiations under the Art of the Deal. "We are a superpower, and under president Trump we are going to conduct ourselves as a superpower," warned Homeland Security advisor Stephen Miller, who has spearheaded everything from the controversial U.S. immigration crackdown to the country's aggressive foreign policy. "I think we're witnessing an act of imperialism in our hemisphere," reflected former Canadian foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy, adding the U.S president "has basically made it very clear he runs the hemisphere and will do what he wants." Even Volodymyr Zelensky had to see the removal of Maduro as troublesome, considering the message it was sending to Russia and China. The operation in Caracas very quickly turned the attention to other countries of interest mentioned by the U.S. president over time. And the list of potential targets only seemed to grow. As Maduro made his first court appearance in New York, leaders from Cuba to Iran and Mexico were condemning not only Washington's incursion but threats directed towards them by the U.S. administration. Mexico City and Bogota reacted strongly to hints the U.S. could intervene there as well to fight drug trafficking, an excuse used to get Maduro on drug charges despite the fact Washington made its intent on the oil industry plain. Colombian President Gustavo Petro dared the U.S. to mount a similar attack: "Come get me, I'm waiting," he taunted. Of greater concern perhaps was Denmark's warning that a takeover of Greenland, which belongs to a NATO member and already has important defense deals with Washington, would "be the end of everything", after Denmark's prime minister asked the U.S. president to stop provocations, including statements the US "had to have Greenland." This is all forgetting about a country Washington had recently threatened to strike if its leadership cracked down on protests taking place nationwide. In fact people waking up on Jan. 3 may have thought Iran had been the subject of US military action, not Venezuela, after the U.S. president had warned Iran, which had been the subject of previous U.S. strikes. This growing list of potential targets should come as a surprise to the president's supporters, many of whom had applauded promises of withdrawal from foreign conflicts and not becoming the world's policeman. Democratic opponents, who hope to shake up Congress in this year's mid terms, noted the Venezuela attack took place as the partial release of much-anticipated but incomplete files pertaining to late pedophile Jeffrey Epstein was dominating the headlines and at a time of low polls as millions of Americans were struggling with higher health care costs after the end of Obamacare subsidies. More confusingly the latest threats against Greenland were being uttered as the Europe and the U.S. were trying to agree on security guarantees should a force defending Ukraine come under attack. The issues may be linked, as Trump’s former Russia adviser said Moscow offered U.S. free rein in Venezuela in exchange for Ukraine. In the mean time however immediate concerns of a clash with Colombia lessened as both leaders had a phone conversation that lowered tensions and ended with an invitation to the White House. Over time every country on Washington's list, including Venezuela and Cuba, seemed to be opening up some discussion channels with the U.S. Would this, including Petro's White House visit, be serene and cordial or blow up and spiral into something like the catastrophic Oval Office meeting with Zelensky last year? Danish leaders came out of their meeting in Washington shaking their heads over Greenland. The only sure thing seemed to be the inconsistency of U.S. foreign policy as the world entered another year of instability. That term certainly seemed to describe Caracas.
Changer de tracé
Comme toutes les cartes dessinées du monde connu avant elle, celle d'un certain cartographe quinquagénaire flammand du 16e siècle avait bien ses défauts; ses terres du septentrion disproportion-nées et son Antarctique plutôt fantaisiste. Mais même à l'époque des lumières les proportions exactes relevaient encore de la science fiction et Gerardus Mercator parvenait avec ses tracés révolutionnaires à mener de nombreux marins à bon port en réussissant un exploit jusqu'alors inégalé: représenter sur une feuille de papier un globe terrestre bien rond. Son plan original, mesurant 2 mètres par 1.25m. fit eventuellement de lui le père de la catrographie moderne, capturant, selon son biographe, "l'essence de la vérité spatiale". Sa projection a depuis subi plusieurs modifications, mais demeure la norme planétaire, des cartes de Google, pourtant le champion de la vérité satellitaire, aux nombreux atlas en circulation. Mais l'exagération de l'hémisphère nord, domaine des pays les mieux nantis, n'a pas tardé à lancer le débat de la vérité cartographique sous le prisme anti-colonial. A-t-on toléré ces imperfections pendant tant de siècles uniquement parce que les Occidentaux possédaient, non les plumes ou les dactylos, mais les sextants? C'est l'accusation des pays africains, dont le continent peut paraître plus petit que le Groënland, certes la plus importante île du monde mais aux proportions démesurées, dans la projection Mercator. Par conséquent l'Union africaine apportait en août son soutien officiel à la campagne «Correct the Map» de deux organisations africaines afin de mettre fin à des siècles de mensonge cartographique en remplaçant la carte par une projection plus précise des proportions des continents. La mappemonde la plus répandue « grossit artificiellement l'Europe et l'Amérique du Nord, tout en réduisant la taille de l'Afrique d'environ la moitié, dénonce Fara Ndiaye de l'organisation Speak Up Africa. Et cette distorsion-là, elle n'est pas neutre, elle façonne notre imaginaire collectif, influence les programmes scolaires et aussi les représentations médiatiques, lorsqu'un enfant africain, notamment nos enfants africains, voient leur continent rapetissé, cela diminue aussi un certain sentiment de fierté et l'importance que cet enfant accorde à son identité. Donc finalement, pour nous, corriger la carte, c'est donc bien plus qu'une question technique, c'est un acte symbolique fort qui touche à la dignité, à la justice et au récit que nous voulons construire autour du continent africain » Cette dernière prône donc l'adoption de la version Equal Earth (voir en couverture) aux proportions plus véridiques. « Pour nous, la projection Equal Earth est un outil pédagogique qui pourrait tout à fait être utilisé dans les écoles, à travers les médias, les différentes institutions, car il permet réellement de montrer un monde équilibré où chaque continent retrouve son véritable poids, ce qui n'est pas du tout le cas de la projection Mercator ». Le débat ne date pas d'hier et a même fait l'objet d'un épisode de l'émission populaire américaine West Wing au début du siècle. De nos jours la nation de l'Oncle Sam modifie la carte à sa guise, renommant entre autre le golfe du Mexique, ce qui laisse douter qu'un président qui regrette que les musées nationaux parlent "trop de l'esclavage" aille dans le sens d'une version donnant à l'Afrique - dont plusieurs citoyens sont interdits de séjour - sa juste proportion. Pourtant d'autres ont fait le saut. La Banque mondiale a adopté l'Equal Earth, aussi connue sous le nom de Winkel-Tripel, tandis que L'Unesco préfère celle de Gall-Peters, qui corrige certaines distortions de la projection Mercator sans pour autant être parfaite. Nulles le sont ou ne peuvent l'être lorsqu'il s'agit de représenter une sphère sur une surface plane. Google a bien, grâce à ses nombreux moyens, représenté un globe en 3-D mais sans totalement abandonner Mercator. L'intelligence artificielle fera-t-elle mieux? Quoi qu'il en soit, la projection Mercator est dépassée, s'accorde à dire Mark Monmonier de l'université américaine de Syracuse “Il s'agissait d'un outil de navigation utile au 16ème siècle parce qu'il contient des lignes droites donnant une ligne de navigation constante à suivre, dit-il, mais en dehors de cette application plutôt limitée, il n'y a plus aucun intérêt à l'utiliser".
One year after the incoming U.S. administration started imposing tariffs against a number of countries, including an island solely populated by penguins, major commercial partners have sought new business elsewhere, adjusting to a new world where the world's economic superpower may no longer be a land quite that open for business.
While Canada and China looked to lower what had been recent trade and diplomatic tensions by striking a trade deal, European Union countries struck a deal with India and improved ties with the South American nations of the Mercosur. While this didn't always go down well within the EU and Canada, it was rather welcome by regional and aspiring world powers which may have previously been chided for their own criticized extra curricular activities or territorial ambitions.
China's Xi Jinping has seen a stream of leaders discouraged by the U.S.'s new bullying stance knock on his door to improve trade ties, despite previous hangups on everything from Taiwan and child labor to the treatment of Turkic minorities or foreign visitors on Chinese soil. Similarly an increasingly nationalistic India not scared of flexing its muscle or politics abroad has been visited by those seeking new opportunities in the light of the continuing U.S. stance.
With Washington recently floating more tariffs for those who refused to go along with its ambitions on Greenland and on Canada if it struck a free-trade deal with China, some countries have decided they preferred seeking new opportunities with the devil they know rather than the friend and once reliable partner they thought they had. Jinping met with a flurry of visitors leading up to Chinese New Year.
Before PM Mark Carney came knocking, eventually agreeing on a deal lowering tariffs on canola in exchange for lower tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, came South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung, both warming the red carpet for European visitors including Britain's Keir Starmer and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, threatened by new U.S. tariffs for answering a call to let the U.S. have its way with Greenland by sending troops there. These decisions have not always been easy, and the meetings not always greeted with enthusiasm domestically.
Canada's Conservative opposition slammed Carney for choosing to cozy up to China, a country accused of foreign interference - a notion which may have evolved with Washington's threats - while the premier of Ontario criticized a deal he said would threaten the province's auto industry. He called for a boycott of Chinese cars but conceded bringing in Chinese auto production would not be uninteresting. The two leaders later met in person to lower these tensions, but other critics voiced their concern over China's human rights record. "Diplomacy is necessary, grinning is optional and looking like a supplicant is undignified," observed former diplomat Michael Kovrig, who was detained by Beijing for over 1,000 days.
Despite U.S. tariffs China has if anything seen its trade surplus reach a record $1.2 trillion last year. The U.S. on the other hand saw its trade deficit worsen in the last year, increasing by 94% in November alone after improving in October. For Carney, the visit, which was followed by a trip to Qatar and Davos, was about positioning Canada for "the world as it is, not as we wish it." Likewise the Mercosur agreement was not reached with all European countries, as protests continued across France by farm workers concerned about the flood of cheap imports from South America.
In any event the agreement has to be voted on in every country which looked to implement it and the EU parliament voted to challenge the trade deal. Far from being neglected, the world's most populated country was similarly being courted by a number of disillusioned visitors including Canada, British Columbia's premier paying India a visit to tout Canada's gas and minerals, weeks before Carney visits himself. The two countries are also trying to move past recent diplomatic spats over accusations Delhi was behind killings in the U.S. and Canada, charges that sent diplomats home a few years ago. Critics say Ottawa should be careful dealing with a rogue state which has sponsored operatives to target citizens within Canada, but rogue is a term increasingly being associated with the U.S. as well.
Ottawa will try to get free-trade with India back on track bearing in mind salvaging North American free trade will be a priority in 2026. Carney touted continued multilateralism and the banding together of middle powers in the face of "great powers" operating without being "subject to any constraints", but deals with countries like India and China made sense because of their sheer size, he said. Still he cautioned, in Davos: "Middle powers must act together because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu... In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice: to compete with each other for favour or to combine to create a third path with impact."
This may have worked already. Shortly after the EU suspended approval of its U,S, trade deal the White House removed the new 10% tariff threat, claiming to have obtained a framework of understanding on Greenland. The announcement came a day after markets tanked over threats to Greenland, perhaps the most persuasive argument for the U.S. presidency. Another one was perhaps the fear of a wider "sell America" movement to unload U.S. treasuries, after Denmark sold $100 million of those during the Greenland standoff, a symbolic step which could have inspired holders of much larger U.S. stakes.
Meanwhile Europe was considering expanded trade with Vietnam while Canada was to send a trade mission to Mexico this month, and the hosts seemed to agree with Carney's speech (see READ). "Canada and Mexico need to speak more, always more deeply, and provide mutual support," told CBC Dolores Padierna Luna of the Morena party. Brazil could also possibly be on the agenda to develop Canadian trade in a year Carney is expected to continue his many international travels to shore up business. Those visits seemed to be paying off. Months after a first visit to South Korea the Asian country announced plans to purchase Canadian steel and look into building cars in Canada, while a new Canadian trade mission headed to Seoul.
UN CONTINENT DIVISÉ
Certes voilà des mois que la droite connaissait des succès en Amérique du sud. Lors du premier tour de l'élection bolivienne la victoire d'un candidat de droite était assurée au second, puisqu'il s'agissait de la tendance des deux meilleurs candidats qui passaient au second tour.
Pendant ce temps le flamboyant président Javier Milei obtenait l'aval des électeurs lors de l'élection de mi-mandat en Argentine. Mais la victoire de José Antonio Kast, qui voit plutôt d'un bon oeil l’héritage de Pinochet, a créé des ondes de choc trente-cinq ans après la fin de la dictature qui avait fait fuir des milliers de Chiliens. Ces derniers étaient plutôt incrédules des résultats électoraux, même s'ils étaient les premiers à avouer qu'un changement était dans l'air tant le mécontentement avait grimpé sur des sujets allant de l'immigration à l'insécurité.
"C'est un tournant historique, important, inquiétant aussi pour le Chili, note l'enseignant José Del Pozo, lui-même venu se réfugier au Canada pendant la dictature. Nous faisons face à une nouvelle droite, décomplexée qui revendique l'héritage de Pinochet." Pas besoin de remonter aussi loin pour retrouver les hommes forts plutôt inspirants. Le Salvadorien Bukele et ses mesures de fer contre le crime organisé, critiquées par les organismes des droits de l'homme, peut servir d'exemple tiré de l'actualité.
La victoire de Kast a effectivement scindé en deux le continent, la gauche, ironiquement, restant au contrôle dans la partie est tandis que la droite trône à l'ouest, si l'on exclue la Colombie tout au nord. Il s'agit d'un retour de balancier après la vague de gouvernements de gauche qui a déferlé sur le continent au début du siècle.
"De façon simpliste, on pourrait dire que les Latino-Américains trouvent que les gouvernements de gauche n'en ont pas fait assez. Il s'attendent à ce que cette nouvelle droite améliore leur niveau de vie, leur sécurité. Mais je pense qu'ils sont dans le rêve," estime Del Pozo au magazine L'actualité.
Cette année de nombreux pays de la région passeront aux urnes, du Pérou au Brésil, dont l'ancien président populiste de droite croupit en prison. A la veille de Noël l'élection du conservateur Nasry Asfura au Honduras a poursuivi la tendance après avoir été confirmé vainqueur après multes délais dénoncés par certains à titre de tentative de fraude. Le président du congrès Luis Redondo pour sa part considérait le vote "complètement illégal".
Cette fracture gauche-droite a été plutôt évidente après l'intervention américaine au Venezuela, la gauche condamnant le geste alors que la droite se réjouissait. Mais plusieurs ont choisi la modération à la suite de l'intervention, la Bolivie réitérant « son engagement en faveur de la paix».
NOWHERE TO RUN
Again this year migrants from across the world will seek shelter from war, natural and humanitarian disasters, but with many nations shutting their doors, the welcome mat will in all likelihood be rare. Tightened border measures in Europe and North America will greet those managing the harrowing voyage to their promised land. But this may happen in other parts of the world too.
After a year of increased strife and humanitarian aid cuts, poorer nations already host to most of the world's millions of refugees are stressed to an ever greater degree and may emulate their Western counterparts by closing their borders, leaving the destitute few places to run to. This was the warning from the Danish Refugee Council late last year in an environment marked by growing anti-immigration and climate change forcing displacements to safe ground.
"They are now being a bit abandoned by the donors," Charlotte Slente, Secretary General of the council told Reuters of the poorer nations host to three quarters of the world's refugees. "I'm a little bit afraid for what we're going to see in terms of the reaction among these host nations, when they realize that less money will come in." Among these nations are countries the West considers sources of migration themselves, such as Uganda, increasingly left to its own devices after being a generous host for millions fleeing strife in Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia, countries specifically black listed from the U.S.' increasingly closed borders.
Kampala is not alone struggling to help with little, other African countries such as Chad have also accommodated numbers unfathomable in the West, some 900,000 refugees from Sudan's continuing civil war. The UN made a call for 28 million euros in emergency funds to assist Burundi in December as it struggled to accommodate some 80,000 refugees from Congo. The ongoing conflict there has sent some 200,000 people fleeing the violence, sometimes to regions with little resources to welcome them. An official in Rumonge said the influx of some 20,000 to 25,000 refugees in that community was "catastrophic" leaving many to die of hunger.
NGOs have been struggling to help across the continent, seeing contributions dwindle from a number of donor countries slashing budgets, not only the U.S., but Canada and European nations as well, shoring up their defences in an increasingly tense geopolitical climate. Slente's own organization has cut some 2,000 positions and aid to a number of countries, affecting essential supplies such as nutrition help to mothers in nations from Afghanistan to Cameroon.
The march of militarization has left the world's poorest to fend for themselves with increasingly nowhere to go. Shortly after the council's warning Kampala signalled it would stop granting asylum and refugee status to people “not experiencing war”, including Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia, because of trouble securing funding. “I have instructed our officers not to give refugee status to citizens from those countries … especially those coming from Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, because there is no war there,” said minister for refugees Hillary Onek, disappointing many who see Uganda as being among the world’s most progressive countries with regards to migration. He cited cuts by the UNHCR, affecting services in a country that hosts nearly 2 million refugees and asylum seekers, the most on the continent.
Similarly the UNHCR says it only has 38% of the $246 million it estimates Chad requires to respond to needs created by the Sudanese crisis next door, where the latest massacres have sent nearly 200 fleeing there each day. The funds are down across the board. By year's end the UN appealed for an aid budget of $23 billion, which may sound like a lot but is only half the size of what it had hoped for due to donor cutbacks. And the needs have become greater. "It's the cuts ultimately that are forcing us into these tough, tough, brutal choices that we're having to make," U.N. aid chief Tom Fletcher said. "We are overstretched, under-funded, and under attack. We drive the ambulance towards the fire. On your behalf. But we are also now being asked to put the fire out. And there is not enough water in the tank. And we're being shot at."
Last year's call for $47 billion had already been scaled back due to the incoming US administration, and thus far only $12 bil. of that amount has been received. So the UN has decided it can only prioritize the most desperate cases, Gaza topping the list at $4 bil. with Sudan and Syria following behind. "(The appeal) is laser-focused on saving lives where the shocks hit hardest: wars, climate disasters, earthquakes, epidemics, crop failures," Fletcher said. An already substantial list to work with as trouble stirs in South America and elsewhere in early 2026.
LE LOURD COÛT DE LA RÉVOLTE
Un régime fragilisé menacé de frappes américaines sur fond de crise de chèreté, ce sont les ingrédients de la révolte qui secoue la république islamique depuis le temps des fêtes, entrainant des éclats meurtriers responsables d'un bain de sang selon certains observateurs.
Plusieurs milliers de personnes auraient été tuées, plus encore arrêtées par les forces de l'ordre. Le spectacle a lieu dans le noir informatique de la rupture d'internet mais des images de foules rassemblées autour de flammes fuient tout de même, laissant filer une vision fragmentaire des plus importantes manifestations depuis celles qui ont suivi la mort de Mahsa Amini en 2022.
Des Etats-Unis, non seulement des menaces de frapper l'Iran là où ça fait mal, ce qui provoque le rire des mollahs, mais l'appel à la révolte du fils du Shah qui avait été évincé par la révolution, ce Reza Pahlawi, dont l'image circule au coeur de ces foules révoltées, en Iran comme à l'étranger. "Sachez que vous n'êtes pas seul, dit Pahlawi depuis son exil américain. Le monde entier se tient aujourd'hui aux côtés de votre révolution nationale et admire votre courage."
Un appel à la mobilisation qui semble avoir été entendu en premier lieu. Puis certains diktats de cet ancien régime, comme l'abandon du voile et une tenue vestimentaire plus occidentale, convient parfaitement à celles qui brûlent leur chador sur la voir publique, souvent exposées aux caméras des portables, au risque de leur vie. Mais le retour de la monarchie ne fait pas l'unanimité, seul l'appel au rejet du régime actuel.
"Son père et grand-père ont établi un régime brutal, note l'experte Maral Karimi, plusieurs personnes se rappellent de ce règne et ne pensent pas que retourner à la monarchie soit viable en 2026." Les jeunes prenant part aux manifestations n'ont jamais connu la corruption et l'oppression qui ont donné lieu au bouleversement de 1979, trop lointaines alors que les besoins immédiats sont criants.
Eclatant à maintes reprises depuis la mort de Khomeini, notamment en 1997, en 2009 puis de manière presque régulière depuis 2019 - encore une fois pour condamner le coût de la vie -, ces mouvements parviendront-ils cette fois-ci, en temps de crise économique et alors que la classe des mollahs prend du vieux, à changer une donne si régulièrement maintenue, au coût de nombreuses vies? Téhéran a dénoncé un complot contre le régime, accusant des acteurs cherchant à provoquer une intervention internationale de tuer les manifestants, tout en promettant de répliquer à toute intervention militaire venue de l'extérieur.
En même temps le régime semblait mettre en suspens les projets d'exécution des manifestants arrêtés, un geste qui semblait calmer les ardeurs à Washington, que les pays du Golfe ont cherché à retenir dans son nouvel élan martial. En même temps la révolte, comme les précédentes, donnait des signes d'essoufflement, les hôpitaux et morgues du pays étant à présent remplis. Des témoignages permettaient de croire que les hôpitaux avaient été visités par des milices fidèles au régime déterminées à achever le travail morbide commencé dans les rues.
S'agit-il d'un nouvel abandon du peuple iranien? Alors que le régime est affaibli, il ne l'est pas assez au point de s'effondrer à la prochaine frappe, selon certains experts, qui notent qu'un écroulement est normalement annoncé par l'apparition de fractures internes. "En ce qui concerne l'appareil sécuritaire on ne voit pas de fissure nette à ce stade," note Mona Tajali de l'université Stanford.
AN ONGOING THREAT
The New Year's celebration was bittersweet in Sydney this year as thousands of revellers gathered to watch the annual fireworks only too aware the stretch of golden sand of Bondi beach had become a murder scene weeks before when a father and son duo took aim at Hannukah celebrations taking place there and killed 15 people. Parties were momentarily stopped to observe a moment of silence.
The duo was later found to have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, the group that vowed to establish a "caliphate", which some mistakenly thought had gone extinct. In fact ISIS has been making something of a comeback, or more accurately, never really went away. American soldiers in Syria were killed by some of its fighters in December and terror suspects tied to the group were arrested in Toronto, Manchester, the U.S., and Istanbul, allegedly planning attacks over the holidays.
US fighter jets later struck ISIS positions in Syria as Washington carried out its retaliation for the attack against its servicemen, soldiers often forgotten on the frontlines of a continuing battle against terrorism lost in the noise of Ukrainian and Middle Eastern conflicts. The US administration has sought to distance itself from foreign conflicts but was finding out this is easier said than done.
Before that retaliation, which hit more than 70 targets, the US and its regional partners had conducted other raids in Iraq and Syria, enabling them to gather intelligence that unearthed previously unknown caches of weapons. The US has been stepping up its cooperation with Syria, now headed by a former jihadist who has joined a new anti-ISIS coalition formed in November. ISIS has been seeking to destabilize the new leadership in Syria which toppled the Al-Assad regime, and still inspires supporters around the world, including Waleed Khan, who was among three arrested in Toronto on Dec. 19 for hate-motivated crimes targeting women and the Jewish community.
The threat, against that community or from terrorism writ large, never appears to go away. An ISIS supporter arrested after conducting an attack in Toronto was re-arrested after his release for vowing to mount a new attack. Then days before Christmas two men were found guilty of planning an ISIS-inspired attack in England that would have targeted hundreds of members of the Jewish community. The suspects "hero-worshipped" the authors of the Bataclan attack that killed 130 in Paris a decade earlier, considering it "the biggest operation after that of Osama" bin Laden in 2001.
Since the Bondi attack, the SITE intelligence group says ISIS has encouraged Muslims to conduct copy-cat attacks, singling out Belgium in particular, where the Bataclan attackers hailed from. The group has reportedly been flooding social media with this sort of murderous propaganda. "Terrorism breeds in squalid corners of the internet where poisonous ideologies, of whatever sort, meet volatile, often chaotic individual lives," warned Ken McCallum, head of Britain's MI5. This evil source of their inspiration is still active on the ground after years of being pursued by Western forces.
"ISIS is still active in central Syria," told the BBC Syria expert Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East policy. "The US, the (new) Sharaa government and the Syrian Democratic Forces are going to be fighting against ISIS for some time." Damascus says it wants to make sure the group "has no safe havens on Syrian territory, and will continue to intensify military operations against it wherever it poses a threat" going so far as to allow soldiers of the coalition to operate in any part of the country in the fight. But that fight is being waged in all corners of the planet.
The Christmas Day arrest of some 115 suspects accused of planning attacks across Turkiye uncovered caches of weapons and ammunition, authorities saying attacks had been planned for Christmas Day and New Year's celebrations. The arrest came days after Turkish intelligence agents conducted a raid against an ISIS group on the Afghanistan Pakistan border. The global impact of ISIS terrorism was top of mind a decade ago when a global coalition was set up to fight the terror group.
In 2024 the US sought to put an end to its participation after seeing its bases in Iraq and Syria targeted. But US engagement is far from done even after the latest attacks. In fact days before the new year US forces targeted ISIS backed militants in Nigeria with the support of Nigerian forces, a sign of continuing engagement in view of the persistent threats the group poses in every corner of the planet. The United Nations says the group still has between 5,000 and 7,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq.
LES RARES APPUIS DE TAIPEI
Dans certains coins du monde qu'un dirigeant s'accroche au pouvoir pendant un quart de siècle en dit long sur la faiblesse des institutions démocratiques, mais à St Vincent et les Grenadines le règne de Ralph Gonsalves n'avait rien de douteux.
Certes c'était un proche de Maduro au Venezuela et de Díaz-Canel à la Havane, puis il y avait bien ces accusations de corruption qui accompagnent ordinairement l'usure du pouvoir. Mais les observateurs s'accordent à dire que ses mandats étaient plutôt mérités que falsifiés, et lorsque le vétéran de 79 ans a été évincé lors de l'élection de l'automne, c'était sans contestation.
Après l'élection, son parti a simplement tiré sa révérence en publiant sur les médias sociaux un message déclarant: "On vous aime SVG (St Vincent et les Grenadines), et nous continuerons à travailler pour vous. Ce n'est pas une fin mais le début". Pendant ce temps les supporters du Nouveau parti démocrate vainqueur défilaient dans les rues organisant un faux cortège funèbre, prononçant la mort du régime de Gonsalves.
L'alternance trouvait enfin sa place entre les collines de Kingstown, ancienne ville de la couronne britannique. Mais l'impact de cette élection pourrait-il se faire sentir à quelques milliers de kilomètres? Alors que Gonsalves privilégiait les échanges avec Taïwan, rares si l'on pense aux efforts de l'empire du milieu afin d'isoler l'île qu'elle revendique, le nouveau maître de Kingstown, Godwin Friday, préconise un rapprochement sans doute plus lucratif avec Pékin.
Taïpei pourrait-elle perdre, encore une fois, un de ses rares alliés à l'étranger? Sa présence sur l'île est bien visible, de l'ancien aéroport près de la capitale, devenu un centre d'achat qui fait face à un hôpital dont la construction a été rendue possible par la générosité taïwanaise où flotte le pavillon de Formose, au nouvel aéroport, dont la conception et la construction ont été en partie rendues possible par des firmes représentant la descendance de Tchan Kai Chek.
Taïpei a été parmi les premières capitales à féliciter Friday, dont la plateforme ne faisait cependant pas appel à une rupture des liens, soucieuse de tout changement de cap même dans ce coin tranquille de la planête. Taïwan surveillait également deux autres élections au sein de pays avec lesquels les allégiances pouvaient changer.
Les deux candidats principaux au Honduras étaient en faveur de renouer les liens avec Taïpei, rompus en 2023, tandis que St Lucie, une autre îles des Caraïbes reconnaissant Taïwan, allait également aux urnes en décembre. Le suspense y fut cependant de courte durée puisque le premier ministre sortant, Philip J. Pierre y a été reconduit, prenant 14 des 15 sièges de l'assemblée. Taïwan a pu souffler quelque peu, ayant vu le nombre de pays alliés chuter de 22 à 12 lors de la dernière décennie, conservant ses quatre appuis dans les Caraïbes. Pour l'instant.
UNE MINISTRE PAS COMME LES AUTRES
L'annonce du gouvernment albanais a créé des ondes de choc à travers le continent, et au-delà. Il n'est pas si rare qu'une ministre tombe enceinte en poste, mais de là parler de 83 enfants il y avait de quoi créer un certain émerveillement. Impossible? L'intelligence artificielle a depuis quelques années subjugé ce mot, et il s'agit d'ailleurs d'IA. C'est de sa ministre IA dont il était question, non une ministre affectée à ce domaine comme il en existe ailleurs mais une ministre justement pas en chair et en os qui est le produit de l'IA et participe pleinement aux réunions du cabinet albanais.
En poste depuis le début de l'automne, Diella se prépare à "enfanter" de nouveaux collègues qui vont s'emparer d'autres dossiers, des appels d'offre à la santé. C'était le tout dernier éclat de ce petit pays des Balkans qui depuis la pandémie multiplie l'innovation en terme de services publics. Ceux-ci sont d'ailleurs presque exclusivement digitaux explique Romina Kostani, directrice de la coordination de l'agenda digital dans ce pays de 2,7 million d'habitants.
Comme d'autres citoyens, les Albanais étaient cloîtrés chez eux pendant l'explosion du covid, qui a donné lieu au développement de plusieurs services digitaux et virtuels, en faisant la norme. Des campagnes d'adaptation ont été lancées pour faciliter l'accès à ces services numériques, qui font loi et ont avec le temps rendu l'ascension de Diella, à l'origine chargée des décisions relatives aux appels d’offres des marchés publics.
Ainsi ce processus serait «exempt de corruption à 100 %» et permet une transparence inégalée dans un pays où elle a souvent fait défaut. «Diella est le premier membre (du gouvernement) qui n’est pas présent physiquement, mais créé virtuellement par intelligence artificielle » déclarait en septembre le nouveau gouvernment élu en mai. C'était une promotion pour Diella, qui était déjà connue du public, ayant été l'assistante virtuelle de la plateforme officielle e-Albania.
Un pas en avant pour l'IA mais un recul pour les femmes? C'est en partie ce que prétendent certains qui n'ont pas nécessairement accueilli cette arrivée d'un bon oeil. Sylvie Boreau, enseignante en marketing éthique, dénonce dans les pages de la Conversation "une fémini-sation quasi systématique des avatars IA. Cette pratique trompeuse qui entretient les stéréotypes de genre perpétue l’objectification des femmes et facilite la manipulation." Le pays a bien proposé une "initiative inédite" qui marque "une étape historique" ajoutant que "la promesse est séduisante. Elle paraît offrir une garantie d’impar-tialité dans un pays où les scandales de corruption entachent la vie politique."
Mais Boreau pose la question: pourquoi, de Siri à Alexa, les IA sont-elles souvent féminines? Elle ajoute au compte, Sofia, moins connue, ce premier robot ayant obtenu la nationalité saoudienne. "Ce n’est pas un hasard, dit-elle, cette féminisation s’appuie sur des stéréotypes bien ancrés : la femme serait « naturellement » plus douce, attentive et empathique." Bonjour les stéréotypes de femme pure, obéissante et dévouée, ses formes IA souvent d'ailleurs victimes de propos agressifs à charactère sexuel.
Boreau propose donc, non d'humaniser mais d'assumer ce genre de solution "comme une nouvelle espèce technologique : ni homme ni femme, ni humaine ni divine, mais un outil distinct, pensé pour compléter nos capacités et non pour les imiter." Le débat est ainsi ouvert, et il ne s'agit pas d'être pour ou contre l'IA, qui s'empare de nos vies, mais: "comment voulons-nous représenter l’IA ? Alors que ces technologies occupent une place croissante dans nos vies, il est urgent de réfléchir à la façon dont leur représentation façonne nos démocraties et nos relations humaines." Et ce à une époque, troublante peut-être pour certains, où l'IA est allée jusqu'à remplacer l'âme soeur.
A GREEN VOTE
While the explosion of global tourism has often raised concerns and elicited protest it has rarely been front and centre in election campaigns. But in an idyllic Indian ocean archipelago home to barely 100,000 people depending on the industry for most of its revenues plans for the development of a luxory hotel near a turtle sanctuary has set off alarm bells.
"To our knowledge there's no one to oversee these construction works or to ensure incidents are reported," warned Gérard Rocamora of the university of the Seychelles and head of the Island Biodiversity Conservation Centre. "The fact a new luxory hotel will be built near the (biodiversity) gem that Aldabra is has raised many concerns."
He fears the arrival of invasive species that could impact the atoll, which he called "one of the rare places on the planet where the impact of humanity remains minimal," and called for strict biodiversity protocols to protect the region. He tells Radio France Internationale the arms length Seychelles Islands Foundation has drawn up biodiversity protections but that they remain vague.
The issue has dominated the presidential election campaign which has just concluded, and one of the first things Patrick Herminie, the victor who collected some 52% of the vote in the second-round run-off, says he will do when he is sworn in is halt the Qatari-funded project after a campaign during which he pledged more scrutiny on tourist projects. He told the BBC his country "got peanuts in that contract" and called the deal "unacceptable".
Outgoing Wavel Ramkalawan had defended the deal stressing the country needed foreign investments to boost employment. According to the World Bank the country had a growth rate of 2.9% in 2024, up from 2.3% the year before, boosted by telecom, financial services and construction. According to the original agreement Qataris would lease the island for 70 years. Herminie said he "would put everything on hold and have a meeting with the investors and express our concrns."
Some construction is already underway. This is just the latest project on Assumption island to create a stir. A few years ago plans for an Indian military base was eventually scrapped after causing popular uproar. Its geographic location has put the Seychelles on the radar in a number of countries including China, Gulf nations and India, all seeking to pursue security cooperation arrangements. While the nation of over 100 islands is Africa's wealthiest per capita, largely owing to tourism, it is also highly vulnerable to climate change.
CHOOSING EUROPE
Russian meddling and provocation has been on many European leaders' minds in recent weeks since Russian drones or planes were spotted from Poland to Denmark, but no country has been more concerned by this than Moldova, the small central European country bordering Ukraine which is home to a breakaway Russophile region.
Authorities there accused Moscow of spending hundreds of millions of euros to "take power" in last weekend's parliamentary election, threatening to steer the nation of 2.3 million away from Europe. But in the end the pro-European governing Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) took 50% of the vote, to the relief of Western powers concerned about growing Russian influence. "You made your choice clear: Europe. Democracy. Freedom," congratulated European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The country was rumored to be on Russia's next list of victims, if Moscow's attack on Ukraine had led to an immediate success. People suspected of seeking to disrupt the vote to elect the assembly's 101 members were arrested ahead of the Sep. 28 election amid suspicion of vote buying and disruption. PAS leader Igor Grosu said Russia had thrown "everything it had" at the election to influence the vote: "Tons of money, tons of lies, tons of irregularities"
All sorts of rumors flooded social media ahead of the election and Moscow did not hesitate to make provocative statements, such as suggesting the country was going to be invaded by NATO troops, an idea not without its appeal considering the proximity to Europe's raging Eastern front.
Tensions are higher in the region after Western allies hinted they may be inclined to shoot down Russian planes entering their air space in the future, a reaction the Kremlin deemed "dangerous". European countries also gathered to counter the growing drone incursions, which have spread from Denmark and Germany to France, by looking to erect a "wall of drones" at its borders.
Wary of its tenuous situation, Moldova applied to join the European Union soon after Moscow's attack in Ukraine in 2022, acquiring candidate status and engaging in accession negotiations. The head of the pro-Russia Patriotic Electoral Bloc, opposition leader Igor Dodon, claimed victory even before results trickled in and called for protests, but few turned up. His bloc had barely secured about a quarter of the vote.
But it didn't fail to obtain the support of the Kremlin whose spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared without evidence: "From what we see and know, we can conclude that hundreds of thousands of Moldovans were deprived of the opportunity to vote in Russia because there were only two polling stations open to them, which was of course insufficient." Expats lined up to vote in North America and other regions, but in the end this late count was not necessary to declare a winner.
The road ahead will not be easy for the party of president Maia Sandu. It will need the support of others to govern, and the country is also struggling with an economic crisis marked by high inflation and worsened by persisting corruption. But the vote was no less significant, stressed Sandu: "The results of the vote aren't a victory for one party or certain electors, they are a victory for the entire country," she said. "It's a strong mandate for the process of joining the EU."
SPILLING OUT
As feared wars dragging into another year without a path to peace are spilling into new countries, threatening to send a world building up its armaments into a spiral of violence. But observers point out the current period of instability is all the more pronounced after what has been a historically exceptional period of relative peace.
The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting after Israel targeted Hamas leadership in Qatar, a country leading peace efforts to end the conflict. At the same time NATO officials were being convened under the rarely invoked Article 4 to discuss the ramifications of Russian drone incursions into Poland some considered intentional.
The Jewish state's offensive was criticized even by steadfast ally Washington, which had been supportive of previous strikes in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and, to some extent, Iran. It came days before Benjamin Netanyahu launched a ground offensive in devastated Gaza, on the day a UN commission of inquiry declared Israel had committed genocide in the enclave. The attack targeting Hamas leadership, following a shooting claimed by the group which killed 6 in Jerusalem, took the life of 6 including a Qatari official, prompting condemnation of violations of international law. Qatar's leader told the BBC this set back peace efforts considerably.
The Ukrainian peace drive has also hit a roadblock despite efforts by Washington to push the parties closer to the negotiating table. While the Russian airspace violation did not cause any deaths, it resulted in destroyed property and provoked the first military response by NATO to a Russian incursion, shooting down some but not all of the drones. Every new day brought chips to the international order.
Any spillover in Poland, accidental or not, risked making the nightmares of former Soviet republics come true. Besides Poland, the Baltic states have for years feared possible encroachment, while Russian influence was on everyone's mind as Moldova's election campaign neared its end. “Russia is pushing buttons, to see what the Americans will do,” told the New York Times Max Bergmann, director for Europe and Russia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Like Europe, “Russia is trying to understand what the Trump presidency means and where is it headed. And if you want to undermine NATO and Europe’s security architecture in a few years, you want to test it.”
The incident has redoubled caution by airliners aware of previous commercial disasters over war zones, such as Malaysian Airlines flight 17 in 2014 when war was already raging in Ukraine's east. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned the war could disrupt paths for European airlines for years to come. "This is going to be an ongoing issue for all airlines and all European citizens for the next number of years," he said. "The risk is one of continuous disruption, rather than of safety." His airline is already considering stopping service to Israel as that conflict drags on. The drone incursion prompted France to send fighter jets to Poland to prevent any future attack as NATO beefed up security by launching Operation Eastern Sentry, involving Denmark, the UK, Germany in order to add "flexibility and strength to our posture".
There was some criticism that a few dozen drones had prompted such as massive reaction by the alliance, which sent fighter jets to shoot down with less success than Ukraine's armed forces, and at great cost, relatively cheap drones. The incident also led to some dissension amid the alliance, Poland contradicting the US, which viewed the incursion as an accident. Days later, Romania says it sent fighter jets to chase a Russian drone out of its territory.
"Although the immediacy of our focus is on Poland, the situation transcends the border region of one nation," commented NATO commander Alexus Grynkewich. This seems to apply to the Middle Eastern conflict as well, as Israel followed the Qatari strike with renewed strikes on Yemen. If it seems the world is now a turbulent place, this is because the current period contrasts with the historically exceptional one that preceded it, historian Florian Louis tells France24.
"We are seeing a multiplication of violent clashes, internal or international, we are in a world more unstable than we have seen for some time," he says , a contrast made more obvious by years stretching from 1945 to the early 21st century which had been relatively peaceful. "This was an exceptional period and what we are witnessing now is a certain return to what had historically been the norm," he says. Leaders such as Putin and Netanyahu are less hesitant to act at a time the world's superpower limits foreign involvements, as one sees the other act with relative impunity, he noted.
CONTESTATION SERBE
Comme ailleurs en Europe la saison estivale a été plutôt chaude et Serbie, mais la météo n'y était pas toujours pour quelquechose. Les manifestations à répétition représentent le défi le plus important qu'ait pu connaitre le président Aleksandar Vučić après 14 années à la tête du pays balkan.
Ainsi son absence début septembre pour participer au grand défilé militaire de Xi Jinping lui permettait sans doute de fuir la contestation croissante dans les rues du pays, qui s'est envenimée depuis les éclats de la mi-août entre manifestants et forces de l'ordre et ne paraît pas prête à s'estomper avec le retour en classe, loin de là.
Les manifestations ont vu le jour depuis l'écroulement de la toiture d'une gare fraîchement rénovée en fin 2024, donnant lieu à une répression sévèrement criti-quée par les instances européennes. Les manifestants font appel à la tenue d'élections anticipées, accusant la corruption d'être responsable du désastre qui a emporté 16 vies. "La solution est de faire appel à des élections, expliquait un manifestant, Nebojsa Korac, lors d'un rassemblement aspergé par du gaz lacrymogène sur un campus de Novi Sad. De notre côté on veut que la démocratie l'emporte et que les institutions politiques fassent leur travail. Ca veut dire faire appel à des élections, ça représente la solution car le gouvernement va changer."
Vučić rejette les accusations d'excès de violence par les forces de l'ordre durant les manifestations, écrivant dans les pages du Guardian que les mouvements contestataires réguliers "dérangent le quotidien, paralyse le gouvernement et deviennent violents", soulignant que 170 agents de police ont été blessés. Des supporters de soccer violents qui se serait mêlés aux manifestations ont notamment été signalés pendant les manifestations de la mi-août.
"Malgré tout les actions de la police ont été limitées et restreintes et ont seulement visé ceux qui s'en sont pris à la propriété ou aux policiers". Son gouvernement n'a pas perdu une seconde avant de lancer une enquête, ajoute-t-il, et a rendu publics "des milliers de documents sur la rénovation de la station de train."
Le premier ministre a par ailleurs rendu sa démission en acceptant la responsabilité pour les éclats. Mais les protestataires exigent également le départ du président , préférant devancer le calendrier électoral dont l'échéancier est atteint en 2027. L'Organisation pour la sécurité et la coopération en Europe n'a pas caché que les élections parlementaires de l'an dernier laissaient à désirer au niveau de l'influence des médias et du patronage lors du vote.
Vučić par ailleurs a été accusé d’étouffer les libertés démocratiques et de donner libre voie au crime organisé, ce qu'il nie. L'Union européenne quant à elle limite ses critiques afin d'éviter de faire basculer le régime davantage dans le camp russe, comme la Slovaquie et la Hongrie. Pareil à ces homologues, Vučić a accusé l'Occident d'orchestrer le désordre, un bouc émissiaire familier depuis le bombar-dement de Belgrade par des avions de l'Otan pendant la guerre des Balkans de la fin du XXème siècle. La Serbie espère toujours intégrer l'UE mais reste proche de Moscou.
AVOIDING THE CURSE
As Guyanans headed to the polls to elect their president, there was little doubt the incumbent Irfaan Ali, who won eight of the country's 10 regions after promising a "prosperous Guyana", was favoured to win, riding an oil-fueled boom that has made the small South American country among the fastest-growing economies in the world.
More good news is in store as growth is expected to continue, projections topping the production of over a million barrels of oil a day. But high inflation not unrelated to major infrastructure projects and growing inequalities have laid the challenges the country of 850,000 faces in the years ahead, amid promises by all parties to share the wealth. That's not what the commoners are reporting so far, leaving them very doubtful their fortunes will improve during Ali's second term.
The oil has brought the poor some relief, such as better child care support, but the infrastructure projects which have boomed as the black gold flowed have also raised prices already going up due to global trends. The transformation has been swift since large deposits of crude were spotted off the country's coast, increasing more than four-fold the GDP in the last five years alone. Growth was measured at 43% last year as some 5,000 public works were launched.
But Georgetown only has to look West to Venezuela to see how such a fortunate find and rapid exploitation can turn into a curse, a trap politicians, like so many in similar situations across the world, said they would tip toe around. "How can we suffer from Dutch syndrome, we are not Dutch," joked a minister of this nation sharing a border with Suriname, a former Dutch colony. But critic doubt any trickle-down economics will make their way to the working poor there.
Critics Amanzia Walton-Desir says few have benefited from the boom. "We have a wealth entering this country like never before (but) the people are still poor." Major infrastructure projects make for good ribbon cutting, but sometimes do little to better people's lives. "The way the government lays out infrastructure projects and subsidies contribute directly to inflation," she deplores. "The easiest thing to do is spend money, it's even easier when it isn't yours," Civil society militant Cris Ram told AFP. Some of these projects, like a recently built hospital, have been little more than empty shells.
"There's no medical team, nurses or equipment, no supplies or electricity." Rather surprising in what is now an energy-rich nation. But Ali's People's Progressive Party supporters disagree, citing payments that have improved citizens' finances. The government has been “helping the people and giving us what we need," tells the Guardian bus driver Omadai Persaud. “We have free education, free university … hospitals and all resources,” she added, making her decision in the lead-up to the election a no-brainer.
But the opposition will continue following the money amid concerns of growing corruption. “A lot of our oil money is being wasted on projects that aren’t achieving their objectives,” said Aubrey Norton, whose party lost support in the election, coming in third. He stressed the need to look beyond oil, what some well-endowed Gulf states are currently doing. “We believe that we have to develop industries outside of oil, so we want to be involved in agro-processing, manufacturing, other areas. Oil is not an infinite resource … and if it is finished without us widening the base of the economy, we’re in trouble.”
RENTRÉE TURBULENTE
Nouvelle rentrée parlementaire, nouveau premier ministre en France, le cinquième en moins de deux ans, un portrait politique d'une instabilité quasi-italienne sur fond the manifestations et de grèves virant à l'émeute dans certains cas malgré le déploiement d'importants dispositifs de sécurité. Son prédécesseur, François Bayrou, avait à peine duré neuf mois, évincé par le vote de censure qui a suivi le retour des élus à l'Assemblée nationale.
Ce dernier avait cherché en vain de faire passer un budget d'austérité, prévoyant une réduction de déficit de l'ordre de 44 milliards d'euros, estimant intenable la fiscalité française. « Vous avez le pouvoir de renverser le gouvernement, mais vous n’avez pas le pouvoir d’effacer le réel » déclara le dirigeant sortant, un politicien de longue date, déplorant un «surendettement» du pays, une «addiction» de dépenses publiques que les Français ont pris l'habitude de «financer à crédit » .
Le résultat du vote était sans surprise. L'idée de supprimer des jours fériés avait à elle seule soulevé un certain étonnement dans ce pays où ils sont nombreux et vénérés. Le résultat du vote a donné lieu à plusieurs célébrations publiques, un «pot de départ» bien arrosé avec fromages et musique. Il s'agit de la première fois dans l'histoire de la Ve république fois qu'un gouvernment perd un vote de confiance. Refusant de faire appel à de nouvelles élections ou de démissionner, le président français a choisi un proche, le ministre des armées Sébastien Lecornu, pour tenter de former un nouveau gouvernement, un choix à nouveau rejeté par une gauche ascendante qui espérait voir un des siens occuper le poste.
« Emmanuel Macron s’obstine donc dans une voie à laquelle aucun socialiste ne participera. Celle qui a conduit à l’échec et au désordre et qui aggrave la crise, la défiance et l’instabilité, a réagi le Parti socialiste. Sans justice sociale, fiscale et écologique, sans mesures pour le pouvoir d’achat, les mêmes causes provoqueront les mêmes effets » . Une première réunion cette semaine lassait les socialistes "sur leur faim". Peu prometteur.
« C'est une décision du président de la république de perpétuer sa politique, estime quant à lui Manuel Bompard de La France Insoumise, plus que jamais la question du bras de fer, du rapport de forces et de la démission du président de la république s'impose. » Dur en effet de voir les choses changer dans les prochains mois qu'aura Lecornu pour « consulter les forces politiques représentées au Parlement en vue d’adopter un budget pour la nation et bâtir les accords indispensables aux décisions des prochains mois ».
Les mécontents n'ont pas hésité à se faire entendre le lors d'une première manifestation nationale pour « bloquer tout », la semaine dernière, provoquant des éclats dans plusieurs grandes villes du pays et menant à des centaines d'arrestations. Une autre avait lieu cette semaine, un jeudi "noir" organisé à travers le pays alors que Lecornu prenait les rênes de la nation. Les défis de la rentrée étaient bien exposés alors que le pays digérait la dégradation de la note de la dette, après l'annonce de l'agence de notation Finch, la faisant passer de AA- à A+. Selon Bayrou c'est le reflet d' « un pays que ses “élites” conduisent à refuser la vérité est condamné à en payer le prix».
FLYING THE FLAG
It's among the world's oldest and most recognizable flags, and is even found in national and regional flags around the world from New Zealand to Bermuda, the Union Jack. It was even Canada's national flag until it eventually got its own. Lately The Union Jack and England's St George's Cross flag have been more and more visible across Great Britain amid a widely popular campaign to "raise the colours".
But some are left feeling uneasy about the flag waiving. It seemed fitting that it all started shortly after England's lionesses won the Euro soccer tournament and organizers say it's meant to be a celebration of pride and patriotism, but amid current immigration crackdowns critics say it amounts to little more than jingoistic far right nationalism. Group Hope no Hate tied the campaign to "well-known far right extremists" finding an opportune moment to bind flag and racism. It wouldn't be the first time flying a nation's colours has been tied to extremism and racism.
England's flag, the red St George's Cross on white background in particular. After devolution gave powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the flag - which is represented in the Union Jack itself like Scotland's St. Andrews cross -, started to become increasingly tied to extremism, being a preferred choice of hooligans at soccer matches. After devolution a new English nationalism "rejected other nations" with the intention of "defending England and the rights of its citizens," because, unlike the Scots and the Welsh, there was no regional legislature to pass laws just for England, says Thibaud Harrois of La Sorbonne. This nationalism claims "once dominant England is now being poorly represented."
The Cross of St George was notably featured in a number of anti-immigration protests that have been popping up as the country wrestles with an influx of immigrants coming over the English Channel. This is hardly the only country to see its national flag taken over by extremist elements. Over the Channel France saw the same flag waving take place on a number of occasions, notably as Le Pen's Front National rose in popularity. "It's pretty systematic," tells Radio France Maud Chirio of Paris university, "all extreme right movements being nationalistic it is pertinent for them to use symbols such as the flag, as this identifies them as nationalists and prevents them from being marginalized."
The flag has also been widely used at Ralliement National rallies, though its popularity also rose as France became as soccer power. More recently Brazil has seen the national banner used by right-wing nationalists supporting populist leader Jair Bolsonaro as he navigates the country's justice system. The day of his inauguration Bol-sonaro waved the auriverde and proclaimed: "To-day is the day the people start liberating themselves from socialism and the politically correct... This is our flag and it will never be red unless blood is shed."
This provoked a campaign by critics to "give us back our flag" to prevent it from being a symbol of right-wing extremists or populists. It echoed campaigns by left-wing militants during the dictatorship of the 80s, observers say. Populist US president Donald Trump has made the flag an important part of his image, embracing and even kissing it during campaign rallies and wasting no time to plant two immense banners around the White House, even though one already flies on the roof of the building itself.
In Canada the 60th anniversary of the Maple Leaf this year became an opportunity to reacquaint Canadians with a banner which had for a time become a symbol of extremists during the contentious anti-vaccination and trucker protests of the previous years. It is now more than even being flown on cars and in homes, a symbol of unity in the face of a perceived growing US threat under its populist presidency.
Most groups using national flags as symbol, including in recent anti-immigrant rallies in Australia, tend to be right-wing, but not always. If anything Scottish nationalism and flag waving by the Scottish National Party seeks to break away from the UK with socialist ideals, notes Harrois. Algerians protesting their government's policies have also embraced the national flag recently, regardless of cultural or political cleavages.
LA BOLIVIE A DROITE
Presque vingt ans après l'ascension d'Evo Morales à la présidence bolivienne, les électeurs ont opté pour un retour du balancier en choissant deux candidats de droite pour se disputer le second tour de l'élection qui mettra fin au règne socialiste de ce petit pays d'Amérique du sud.
Mais le dirigeant d'origine autochtone sexagénaire qui s'était battu contre la pauvreté mais a perdu la faveur du public, n'est pas resté entièrement à l'extérieur de l'arène politique, prônant un vote en blanc pour protester contre les limites de mandat - qui l'empêchent de se présenter à nouveau - qui a récolté non moins de 20% des résultats.
Voilà qui lui a plutôt fait plaisir mais qui n'a pas manqué d'être dénoncé par une opinion publique las des nombreuses querelles intestines de son parti, le Mouvement vers le socialisme, poussant plusieurs à voter plus à droite en période de difficultés économiques. « Même des gens qui avaient plus d’affinités idéologiques avec la gauche que la droite étaient réticents » à confier un nouveau mandat à la gauche, résume à La Presse Gustavo Flores-Macías de l’Université Cornell.
Le pays andin était prêt à tourner la page, lui qui traverse une pénible période marquée par une inflation de 25% et une pénurie de carburant, alors que la Bolivie est pourtant riche en hydrocarbures, source de ses succès antérieurs. Résultat, les candidats en lisse au second tour, le sénateur Rodrigo Paz et l'ex-président Jorge « Tuto » Quiroga, ne cachent pas que le pays devra traverser de dures années en raison du besoin de mesures d'austérité nécessaires au rétablissement de l'économie plombée par la dette et les déficits.
A blâmer entre autre, selon Flores-Macías, un manque d'investissement dans l’exploration et les nouvelles technologies après une période de nationalisation de l'industrie des hydrocarbures. Paz, qui a récolté 32% des voix, a causé la surprise en finissant en tête de peloton malgré avoir limité les publicités coûteuses et les rassemblements importants, une montée notamment expliquée par le succès des vidéos tiktok anti-corruption de son colistier, qui ont connu un franc succès chez les jeunes.
« L’authenticité et la communication numérique ont pris le pas sur tout ce qui constitue l’appareil traditionnel des grands médias et de l’argent », explique à l'AFP Erick Hurtado, spécialiste en marketing politique. Mais alors qu'un vent de changement flotte sur la nation andine, le discours de Paz est perçu comme plus modéré que celui de son adversaire.
« Il ne représente ni les grandes entreprises, ni les libéraux radicaux, résume le sociologue Renzo Abruzzese sur les ondes de la chaîne Red Uno. Il incarne le citoyen ordinaire. » Un citoyen dont le projet de « capitalisme pour tous » semble avoir trouvé des adeptes dans le pays le plus pauvre du continent en quête d'une sortie de crise.
THE RIVAL CLAN
The projection of power and defiance of any Western-led global order was undeniable. After Washington's largely underwhelming military parade prepared with great haste this winter, Beijing held a massive display of weaponry in Tian An Men square to mark the anniversary of Japan's surrender, but also so much more, signalling an intention to end "Cold war mentality".
Days before Xi Jinping had gathered Russian leader Vladimir Putin and India's Narendra Modi in a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation attended by 20 world leaders in all, all looking for new leadership at a time of U.S. commercial tensions and American withdrawal from the world stage.
The parade wasn't the affair of a few squeaking tanks rolled out of World War II museums but advanced laser, nuclear ballistic missile and underwater drone technology. Attending were Putin as well as a North Korean leader who rarely leaves his country and Iran's president, all joined by dozens of other heads of state, including two Western leaders, all rather in the opposing camp of the Ukrainian war and NATO.
Jinping and Kim have both been supporting Moscow in its war on its neighbor, a war Washington has tried to end without success. U.S. President Donald Trump, whose view of Putin has soured and who has slapped Beijing with tariffs, mocked the gathering by writing on social media: "Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America."
The display showed how much China's arsenal has changed throughout the years, including everything from robotic wolves to hypersonic glide and cruise missiles which are unrivalled in the West and give Jinping the assurance to declare his nation fears no one. Beijing, which is rapidly building up its navy, not only has the numbers - due to its large population - but technological know-how to be a formidable military power, though observers, who will be studying the scene intensely, note much of the arsenal remains untested.
None of this is free and China is spending billions on its military hardware. This Spring it reported a military budget of $245 billion, second only to the US, but observers say this 1.5% of GDP figure is implausibly low. The U.S. Defense Department usually finds such official figures understated by anything from 40% to 90%. And China's economy isn't firing on all cylinders considering the global trade tensions with the US. By the time they bubbled over Beijing was weathering deflation along with a property-sector collapse.
The country's nominal GDP growth is less than half of what it was during the pre-pandemic years of 2017–19. Still China's technological prowess is making it a daunting opponent for the West, all the more as it teams up with other great powers such as Russia and India. Although there was at least a moment that brought the great middle kingdom's power some dose of humility, bordering on embarrassment.
Days before the parade, slogans appeared on a building in Chongqing calling for the end of Communist Party rule, no less. “Only without the Communist Party can there be a new China,” it read, as well as: “No more lies, we want the truth. No more slavery, we want freedom.” A remarkable feat considering the country's unmatched surveillance tools.
The author, Qi Hong, later showed police searching a nearby hotel where the projection had originated, thanks to a hidden camera. He was soon out of the country with his wife and children, telling the New York Times: "My only intention was to express myself. The party installs surveillance cameras to watch us. I thought I could use the same method to watch them." More of a projection of dissent.
TARGET IRAN
Leaders gathered at the G7 in Kananaskis this week, reuniting the heads of the world's most powerful economies for the first time since the re-election of the US president, had a lot on their plate considering the tense trade climate between the traditionally close partners. In addition ongoing wars, such as Ukraine and Gaza, were sure to be on the agenda. But new clashes between Iran and Israel, this time with added ferocity that suggested Israel wanted to bring the regime down and end its nuclear threat once and for all, took centre stage amid fears of a wider Mideast conflict.
The two Middle Eastern countries had spent days exchanging rocket fire after the Jewish state struck nuclear facilities, ending whatever talks were still underway. As world leaders met in Canada, Israel urged the citizens of Tehran to evacuate ahead of a new series of strikes.
The crisis shortened U.S. president Donald Trump's partici-pation at the summit, as rumors swirled the US may join the attack against Iran, if only to punch through bunkers deep underground that Israel, despite its quickly secured control of Iranian airspace, could not. The offensive further divided Western allies, French president Emmanuel Macron suggesting that bringing regime change was a recipe for trouble in an already troubled part of the world.
"The greatest mistake we could do is seeking through military means to change the regime in Iran," he said, warning the world risks a repeat of the "chaos" that marked regime change in Iraq and Libya. But the US seems to think the time for coming to the table has come and gone. The G7 called for de-escalation short of asking for the ceasefire but Washington was calling for total capitulation of the regime, all signs indicating it had prevented Israel from kiling Iran's spiritual leader, but that this remained an option.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defiantly responded there would be no surrender and that the US would face "irreparable damage" if it attacked, criticizing the Jewish state for scuttling talks. Further involvement by Washington would go against the administration's stated aim to distance itself from foreign conflicts.
Experts seem divided on whether Iran in fact is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, something leaders in the West at least agree Iran should never have. Intelligence agencies have said the regime is still years away from reaching that point and this week IAEA head Rafael Grossi said "we are not able to say Iran has made efforts in the fabrication of nuclear weapons" and reiterated the many risks associated with attacking nuclear sites. Surprisingly silent during this crisis is Moscow, once a staunch supporter of Tehran, but now embroiled in its own conflict.
Also silenced are Tehran's once violent proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, other victims of Israel's strikes in a campaign that seeks to put away the actors behind the Oct. 7 attacks. Also remaining largely quiet is China, which is a major Iranian oil importer and seeks to deepen ties with Tehran. Like the G7, Beijing called for a de-escalation of the conflict, adding it was ready to play a constructive role in any talks. Sadly neither China nor the G7 have had much influence or success ending recent conflicts, from the Middle East to Eastern Europe.