Jumbo jet controversy follows US president on tour of Middle East NPU file Photo
His party freshly elected, but without a majority, Christian Democratic leader Friedrich Merz wasted no time plunging into the debates consuming Europe as the Ukrainian war began a new year, specifically wondering whether NATO, as we know it, without the usual strong US backing, is on its last legs. The issue never seemed more pressing than after the disastrous exchange between the Ukrainian and US presidents during a visit they were supposed to reach a mineral agreement. Instead the Oval office encounter descended into a shouting match which set the relationship back at a time Kyiv, and by extension Europe, was becoming more vulnerable. The Atlantic alliance had been through crises before, its very need questioned at the end of the Cold War, before new crises emerged, and old ones re-emerged. But now, although needed more than ever, Washington's isolationist posture and overtures to Russia caused alarm, and at the same time prompted questions about why the old continent had not moved more aggressively to bolster its own ranks and capabilities, especially after Russia's previous aggression in 2014. The likely new chancellor of the economic power at the heart of Europe committed to supporting Ukraine and bolster its defenses even before getting into the challenge that is coalition-building. "My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA," he said as electoral results were trickling in. Left to shape a coalition after obtaining 29% of the votes, Merz replaces center-left chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats registered a historic low of 16% after his government collapsed last fall, prompting the early vote. Snap elections have been the norm with other G7 partners, including France and, quite likely, Canada. Like France, Germany has been jolted by an upswing of hard right votes, the Alternative for Germany finishing second with 20% of support, doubling its previous score - the highest score registered by such parties since WWII. But for now it is likely to remain ostracized by mainstream parties. Especially on the matter of supporting Ukraine, the latter speak with one voice. "There is a consensus that... funding for Ukraine has to continue," says Gesine Weber of the German Marshall Fund. "The AfD can on the short term most likely not influence it because there is a large majority of parliamentarians (supporting Ukraine), however the AfD might be able to influence public discourse as the biggest opposition party and then we must see whether there is an impact on public support." The coalition will require weeks to take shape, but Merz, who is trying to get this done by Easter, is determined not to leave a void at such a critical time. European leaders are concerned Moscow and Washington are trying to work a deal to end the war with unfavorable terms for Ukraine, causing uncertainty for the continent as a whole for years to come. This concern grew after the White House clash, but Germany, like other European countries, voiced support for Kyiv. "Germany together with our European allies stand united alongside Ukraine and against the Russian aggression, their defense for democracy and their quest for peace and security in ours," it stated. The first month of the second Trump administration alone has, to say the least, been trying for European leaders, wary of tariffs as well as security disengagement in Europe, while the US shows an unhealthy interest in Greenland. "I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but.. it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe," Merz said. "We are under such massive pressure from two sides that my absolute priority now really is to create unity in Europe." This was almost putting Russia and the US in the same category, and at the UN that certainly seemed to be the case, the US joining Moscow by voting against a resolution condemning Russia's war. Other countries of the continent and alliance wasted no time showing their will to keep supporting Ukraine, France, the UK and even Canada raising the possibility of sending troops to back a ceasefire. There has even been mention of creating a nuclear umbrella for the continent. Turkiye, a member of NATO, was also hoping to have a role in whatever new defense strategy Europe would develop. Regardless of any mineral deals with Ukraine, the White House signaled it would be for Europe to provide security guarantees. These important future investments required in defence will not come cheap. The sluggish German economy has already been a major issue of the election. Another hot topic was immigration as the campaign was marked by a number of violent incidents involving Islamist newcomers, including one attack the last week of the campaign, boosting the fortunes of the AfD, which also counted on the repeated support of US billionaire Elon Musk during the campaign in outbursts German officials have condemned as political interference. Merz criticized this after the election, but hopes Berlin and Washington can still enjoy close ties. The fate of some 35,000 US servicemen in the country, at a time of American disengagement, was anyone's guess. This weekend, days after meeting in Ukraine to voice support for Kyiv, European leaders and Justin Trudeau gathered in another summit in London, announcing a four point plan to defend Ukraine and end the war. Using a formula made famous during the Gulf War, the 18 leaders looked to develop a "coalition of the willing". One that would still need US backing however.
Trudeau's Fall
What now for NATO?
An American pope
At a time an American president is causing disruption across the world, can an American pope save the planet and make amends, and in the words of Pope Leo XIV "build bridges" to become "a single people"? Perhaps this was the intention of 133 cardinals as they gathered in the Sistine chapel, under the canvas of Michelangelo to choose Chicago-born Robert Prevost, a 69 year-old Augustinian Friar who spent most of his career as missionary in Peru and was made cardinal just two years ago. His election on the fifth ballot seemed to indicate continuity in the path of the late Pope Francis of reaching out to the broader world. Choosing the name Leo XIV was in itself by some accounts a salute to the legacy of Leo XIII, who in the late 19th century was known as the “Pope of the Workers”. On a day, May 8th, when much of the West was celebrating the 80th anniversary of peace in Europe after WWII but conflict raged in the four corners of the world, Pope Leo greeted the masses on St Peter's square with "peace be with all of you" in a message he made in both Italian and Spanish. The new pope has been "a voice of common sense and practical concerns for the Church's outreach to the poor," said Rev. Mark Francis, who has known him since the 1970s. "To be an instrument, a promoter of all things good for the common good, for people on the margins, for the poor, these are the values that Pope Leo has lived," told CNN Father Robert Hagan. Little known and having given few interviews, Pope Leo had not been featured on the list of favorite papabile, another similarity with his predecessor, which included cardinals from Italy and the Philippines. His election on the second day also surprised some pundits who expected a longer conclave given the record number of cardinals and their diversity, a college which bore all the marks of the late Pope Francis, who had chosen the majority of them. Most surprising of all, perhaps, was the fact the pope chosen hailed from the world's greatest superpower, a choice some suggest was not disassociated with Donald Trump's re-election, and the path of confrontation the US president has taken over the last months since he took office. Unlike his predecessor Leo XIV had a Twitter account before his reached the papacy, and didn't hesitate to make his criticism of the current US president clear. His final posting, on April 14, was a retweet of a fellow clergyman who said about America's deportation of a US resident “Do you not see the suffering? Is your conscience not disturbed? How can you stay quiet?” This reflected concerns of his about US policy going back to the travel ban of Trump's first term, when he retweeted a post saying “Calling refugee bans ‘a dark hour of US history,’ [Chicago Archbishop] Blase [Cupich] says ‘the world is watching as we abandon our commitment to American values’.” Others read: “We’re banning all Syrian refugees? The men, women and children who *most* need help? What an immoral nation we are becoming. Jesus weeps” and “Saying Trump’s ‘bad hombres’ line fuels ‘racism and nativism’..." In a much older post he is quoted saying that victims of sexual abuse by priest should denounce them, a subject which over the years has brought scandal to the Church. "He wants to pull down the walls that others are so rapidly putting up and he wants to overcome the nationalism, the polarization," says Vatican historian Gerard O'Connell. "He is going to continue that path that Pope Francis has traced.... but bringing something also new. He's one of those who crosses the divides in his own personal experience."
Media literacy resources
The location was familiar and indeed significant, the porch of a cottage in the outskirts of Ottawa where the Canadian prime minister addressed his countrymen with regularity to keep them updated on the fight against the covid pandemic that was keeping them locked up at home. While the setting of Rideau cottage may have harkened back to a time when Trudeau rose to the occasion, leading the country in the fight against the pandemic, it also reminded some members of the public of a difficult period marked by widely unpopular covid mandates and the Emergencies Act, which in time mined his popularity and eventually gave the Conservatives a clear path to victory in 2025. Nearly five years after that health crisis erupted, and nearly a decade after becoming the country's leader, Justin Trudeau chose the same setting to announce he would step down as Liberal party leader to allow someone else to run against the Pierre Poilievre Conservative freight train dominating the polls for over a year. The announcement was by then no longer a surprise and had been widely expected in fact after weeks of pressure not only from opposition politicians, including key partners that helped prop up his minority government, but within the Liberal party as well. After the resignation of a number of his deputy minister and finance minister on the day she was to deliver her fall economic statement, that was too much to bear. "As you know I am a fighter," he said in his first TV address in weeks, adding "It has become obvious to me, with the internal battles, that I cannot be the one to carry the Liberal standard in the next election." He reiterated he didn't think his opponent, whose party is comfortably leading the Liberals in polls, was the right person to steer the country considering his stance on climate change and social policies. It didn't take long for Poilievre to release a video noting every Liberal MP and "potential Liberal member-ship contender fighting for the top job helped Justin Trudeau break the country over the last nine years," pointing to high inflation and rising crime as well as the housing crisis. He reiterated calls for an immediate federal election. But Trudeau said he would stay on as Liberal leader until a new one is chosen, launching a snap leadership campaign in an election year marked by the challenge of the incoming US administration. The Conser-vatives have been releasing similar campaign-looking videos of the sort for months, helped by healthy party coffers. Some of the slogans of axing the taxes, fixing the budget and building the homes have already grown old months before an expected early election. Trudeau leaves the political scene undefeated after winning three elections and prolonging his second minority mandate with the help of opposition support, but byelection losses, MP departures and dropping polls brought an end to a leadership initially launched under the international splash of "Trudeaumania". The depar-ture of Chrystia Freeland in December had made staying at the helm untenable. Like other leaders in the West from Britain to the United States next door, Trudeau was swept by the winds of change after a long tenure. Remarkably the prime minister seemed to think the leader eventually chosen by his party would be able to somehow eke out a win in a coming confidence vote, but opposition leaders made plain they would oust the Liberals at the first occasion. Such a vote of confidence is expected as soon as parliament resumes after the current prorogation period, which has shuts down the work of the House of Commons until late March. A new party leader would emerge on March 9th. Soon after Trudeau's announcement potential contenders started joustling for position, among them cabinet members but also the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England; the person who was rumored to take over Freeland's job, prompting her to quit the government in a storm pre-emptively. Time was of the essence for the party to choose a leader in time for an election campaign that looked more and more like a victory lap for the opposition. This did not prevent Freeland and Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor, from tossing their hats into the ring despite slim to non existent chances of success. As consolation, the leadership winner automatically becomes prime minister. Carney could accomplish this without even holding a seat. Freeland, however, runs the risk of repeating the short tenure of Canada's sole female prime minister, Kim Campbell, if she were to win the leadership. Both candidates gave signs early on they may be willing to bring changes to the carbon tax, which is highly unpopular among many Canadians despite delivering regular cheques to those living in participating provinces, taking away a Tory slogan.
The Liberals resurrected
Canada's new PM
Mere days into his new role as Canadian prime minister Mark Carney was taking off on a foreign visit to France and the UK in an attempt to reinforce ties with "reliable allies" which spoke volumes about the close trans-Atlantic ties and frigid relations with the US administration. The post-Trudeau political transition has hardly been conventional. By electing their new leader, Canada's Liberals chose the country's prime minister at a time of tense trade frictions with the neighbor to the south. In a landslide win Carney, 59, took nearly 86% of the vote in the first ballot, amounting to the coronation of a non-elected official some feared, but convincing enough to rally the troops, including his leadership rivals, to take on Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. Carney, who becomes a PM without a seat, in fact welcomed his Liberal opponent, Chrystia Freeland, into his cabinet, but not Karina Gould, another rival who ran against him. Well before taking office Carney acknowledged the current challenges, including an increasingly aggressive US administration “will take extraordinary efforts... We will have to do things that we haven’t imagined before, at speeds we didn’t think possible,” but said he was bullish on the country's future seeing “big changes, guided by strong Canadian values.” The former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England skyrocketed in popularity, quickly becoming the candidate preferred, not only among Liberals but in the country as a whole, to take on Donald Trump, even making the Liberals competitive nationally after being 20 points behind the Tories for the last year. Recent polls even had the Liberals leading the Tories nationally for the first time in three years. But Carney struggled during a French TV debate and his difficulty explaining his financial holdings has been the subject of Conservative attacks, and will remain in the crossfire in the weeks ahead as the country heads straight to the polls. Carney could become Canada's most short-lived prime minister if he fails to upset Poilievre in the general election. In the mean time he wasted no time reaching out to the US administration, before his swearing in, but made plain there would be no meeting until the US toned down the rhetoric. His first trip abroad, to Paris and London, symbolized the importance Europe was taking at a time of frigid US ties. Carney and Trudeau had by then agreed on a rapid transition. The latter, who in his final speech said the country of 41 million is facing "a nation-defining moment" leaves the highest office in the land his head high despite the party's downfall in the last year. Trump's tariffs threat enabled him to once more play the kind of leadership role he had displayed during the pandemic, uniting the provincial premiers and Canadians against a foreign threat. While the Liberals have been pressured to call an election ever since a deal with the opposition NDP collapsed, leader Jagmeet Singh, who is tanking in the polls, said he may once again be willing to support the Grits in exchange for measures to protect Canadians affected by the tariffs. Carney however seemed ready to head right into a federal election, now that his leadership is secured with approval numbers even Trudeau had not obtained.
First chosen by the party faithful in a snap Liberal leadership race, former bank governor Mark Carney was elected by Canadian voters but without the majority he sought to effectively deal with an increasingly assertive southern neighbor threatening to bring the continent into a recession.
Washington's aggressive stance on tariffs completely upended the outcome of the election which came after three Liberal mandates, two of them in minority governments - which made the bid to remain in power highly unlikely just months ago. Carney made clear that despite the familiar colours of the government his leadership would mark a clear departure from that of his predecessor. "As we come here after this consequential, most consequential election, let’s put an end to the division and anger of the past," he said. "We are all Canadian and my government will work for and with everyone."
With 169 ridings the Liberals made gains but will once more have to rely on others to pass legislation, having previously survived by partnering with other parties, first the Bloc Quebecois, and later the New Democrats, the latter only pulling their support in the fall amid a Liberal party revolt which ultimately led to Trudeau's departure. Leader Jagmeet Singh and Pierre Poilievre of the Conservatives lost their seat on election night, the former immediately resigning as party leader.
Carney fell just short of the 172 seat majority he sought to confront a US administration which triggered a trade war by imposing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, also targeting some car imports. In a phone conversation earlier this year Carney and Donald Trump agreed the elected prime minister would engage in discussions on the dispute soon after the vote. Both leaders spoke the day following the vote, vowing to meet in person in short order. In his first press conference since his election Carney said this would take place the following week.
The political neophyte will have to deliver on promises of dealing effectively with the brash US president after spending a campaign touting his experience handling the 2008 financial crisis in Canada and uncertainty following Brexit in the United Kingdom. He stressed he knew how to negotiate and deal with crises, and come out of them stronger. Carney had led polls throughout the campaign and Canadians seemed to indicate they made their choice early.
In fact pollster Marc Leger said the 35-day campaign, the shortest allowable, hardly registered with the voters at all in the overall scheme of things. Pointing to poll numbers in the 43% to 38% range in favor of the Liberals which only slightly underestimated Conservative support, Leger stated: "A campaign this useless, it's unheard of." Analyst Yves Malo agreed: "Not only has the needle not moved, it has not moved during the entire campaign," he said. "We can call him Teflon Mark because nothing has stuck to him," despite a few early campaign gaffes.
Besides the tariff issue "all other issues had little impact" on the minds of the country's 28 million registered voters despite other preoccupations ranging from general affordability to doctor shortages. Canadians quickly found the economist to be a more compelling candidate to deal with Trump, preferring him over longtime politicians leading the other major parties, including Poilievre who had been dominating the polls, by as many as 20 points in the months leading to the election call, only to lose not only the election but his seat in an Ottawa riding neighboring Carney's.
Trudeau's departure and Carney's decision to end the carbon tax after winning the leadership race enabled the Liberal leader to remove the major irritants which had made the Liberals unpopular and Poilievre more appealing. The latter was often accused of sounding too much like Trump despite his shift to a discourse increasingly harder on the United States. This was the first time Carney was elected into political office. Rumors alone of his arrival in politics to replace finance minister Chrystia Freeland had caused a caucus revolt which ultimately toppled Trudeau, launching the leadership race.
After easily defeating the former deputy prime minister polls showed Carney's popularity steadily climbing among Canadians, turning a tide to make the unpopular Liberals not only contenders but favorites to win a majority. In the end Liberals had to contend with a strong minority needing just a few extra voices to push through their agenda.
Carney was at times criticized of taking advantage of his prime ministerial role choosing to pause the campaign to meet with provincial and territorial leaders to discuss tensions with the United States, a pause which allowed him to appear prime ministerial while avoiding the glare of the electoral cameras to answer questions pertaining to his personal finances. Despite a limited knowledge of French, he was able to walk away from a French TV debate relatively unscathed and gathered growing support in Quebec at levels higher than his predecessor, whose riding had been in la belle province.
The election saw both Liberals and Conservatives register results in the popular vote they hadn't seen in decades, to the detriment of smaller parties which lost seats in the two-horse race. The day following the election Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said it was time to tone down the partisan rhetoric and seize "an opportunity to work differently" in parliament to confront the southern neighbor with a united voice. At least for the next few months.
50 ANS PLUS TARD
Certes la métropole de presque 10 millions est grouillante de manière générale, agglutinée autour du fleuve Song Sai Gon, artère importante où circulent de nombreux bateaux conteneurs, mais il se passe toujours quelquechose en particulier sur la place de l'union dans le centre de Ho Chi Minh Ville. Quand l'espace n'est pas occupé par un défilé ou une fête quelconque elle est prise d'assaut par des touristes qui envahissent le vaste espace piétonnier central pour admirer la statue de l'homme qui a donné son nom à la ville et l'âme au Vietnam moderne.
Parmi eux des groupes se tournent vers un édifice datant de plusieurs décennies couronné par une cage d'ascenseur. Récemment des panneaux ont été ajoutés avec l'inscription en anglais Landing zone et The last mission. Il s'agit en effet de l'ancienne ambassade américaine qui avait été capturée dans cette photo mémorable de citadins fuyant l'arrivée du Vietcong en tentant de s'accrocher aux derniers hueys quittant une Saigon tombée.
C'était il y a cinquante ans déjà, et le pays du sud-est asiatique, qui ces derniers temps craint plutôt les tarifs qu'une invasion terrestre, s'est transformé en véritable musée à ciel ouvert sur cette guerre qui avait clôt le chapitre de l'Indochine et infligé un camouflet à la puissance américaine. La présentation est faite sans rancune, les Américains sont bienvenus. C'est aussi vrai dans le musée de la guerre qui abrite des photos des atrocités commises par l'agent orange et des techniques de torture sanguinaires.
Autant de Vietnamiens s'y pressent que de visiteurs étrangers, grimaçant parfois en observant ces clichés de jeunes enfants déformés par les chimies modernes et la folie humaine. Mais l'exercice de mémoire peut être selectif. Le régime a en revanche fait beaucoup d'effort pour reléguer aux oubliettes l'histoire des Vietnamiens qui étaient dans l'autre camp, et poursuit une politique de discrimination qui ne permettra jamais au pays de 60 millions d'habitants de véritablement se réconcilier, selon l'auteur et recherchiste Nghia M. Vo.
Dans une lettre publiée dans le Usa Today il se dit regretter que "pour ceux qui ont combattu aux côtés des Etats-Unis, les cinq dernières décennies ont été marquées par la discrimination et l'effacement sous le régime communiste", eux qui sont toujours vus comme "des traîtres ou des marionnettes américaines".
On dénombre-rait 400000 responsables et officiers envoyés vers des camps de ré-éducation, qui ne bénéficient d'aucun soutien et sont exclus de la fonction publique, des personnes "sans dignité" dit-il. Autant de civils ont été "ré-éduqués", et c'est sans parler des deux millions de boat people qui ont quitté la patrie pour s'établir en occident.
Selon l'historien Christopher Goscha, cette "hemorrhagie interne du Vietnam moderne est la preuve que la réconciliation nationale a été vouée à l'échec." Ce mot n'est que de la belle théorie selon Vo. "L'histoire n'est pas seulement le souvenir des victoires mais c'est reconnaitre le coût de la guerre et les vies changées à jamais," écrit-il alors que des militaires pratiquaient leur défilé du 50e.
ELECTING A NEW POPE
At a time of upheaval and conflict, a voice of compassion and humanity has been silenced. In his final hours before passing on at age 88, weakened by illness but summoning the strength to one final time participate in the festivities of Holy Week, Pope Francis remained true to the priorities that marked his papacy, appealing for peace in Gaza and Ukraine, and for compassion towards migrants and victims of violence, in his final public appearance on Eastern Sunday.
Days before he had visited with prison inmates, once more reaching out to the marginalized after over a decade of moving the Vatican away from traditional conservative tradition to a more progressive style that reached out to homosexuals, increased the roles of women in the Church and called the death penalty inadmissible. He also urged the faithful to "listen with our hearts to the cry of the Earth and of the victims of environmental disasters and climate change, making a personal commitment to care for the world we inhabit."
It wasn't long before this very different approach drew the criticism of some conservative members of the clergy, particularly after he approved Church blessing for same-sex couples. "If a person is gay, accepts the Lord and has good will, who am I to judge them?" he famously said early in this pontificate, signalling his would be an inclusive papacy very different from that of his predecessors. But his shift also left many unsatisfied and frustrated by what they saw as half measures. He still rejected same-sex marriage and did not approve of a proposed Italian law that would have extended protections to LGBTQ people.
Some also criticized Francis’ reluctance to push for the ordination of women. “His repeated ‘closed door’ policy on women’s ordination was painfully incongruous with his otherwise pastoral nature, and for many, a betrayal of the synodal, listening church he championed,” stated the Women’s Ordination Conference. Pope Francis was honest about his own shortcomings. “We are often chained like Peter in the prison of habit,” he observed once in 2022. “Scared by change and tied to the chain of our customs.”
Francis was also panned for failures to address sex abuse scandals head on, discrediting Chilean abuse victims in 2018 and standing by a bishop linked to their abuser before he later realized his mistake and invited the victims to the Vatican. He eventually adopted new rules to hold top religious leaders accountable if they were responsible for sexual abuse or covering it up, but short of the transparency demanded by many.
Perhaps his frustrating and incremental steps were only meant to gradually ease the Church in a direction not all were willing to go, some observers ventured. As the Vatican turns to the election of a new pope this month it will find a college of cardinals which Francis has had time to shape in his image. Over the years he chose cardinals from smaller countries often forgotten by the Church such as Laos and Tonga, instead of considering more conservative bishops from larger and Western nations such as the US or Italy, a reflection of his own travels and willingness to reach out to more far-flung countries.
By the time of his death he had named some four fifths of the cardinals who will choose the next Bishop of Rome, that's slightly above the two-thirds needed to elect a new pontiff. But that doesn't mean the chosen cardinals will necessarily continue his legacy. In fact because of the diversity of Pope Francis' chosen picks, the next conclave may be long and difficult according to top canon lawyer Thomas Schüller. "I believe it will be a longer, more complex conclave, because the group of electors is heterogeneous," he said. "It will be exciting to see whether the reform-oriented group will prevail and agree on a candidate."
ENCORE SUJETS DE SA MAJESTÉ
A Kingstown, ville du roi mais qui n'a de royal que le nom, on conduit à gauche au long des routes cahotées et sinueuses qui grimpent et descendent au long de mille collines saupoudrées de maisonettes couleur pastel. Les guichets bancaires à la voix très britannique distribuent des billets où sourit encore cette regrettée majesté tandis que le cricket rivalise avec le foot au titre de sport préféré.
Comme plusieurs îles des Caraïbes, celles de St Vincent et Grenadines peuvent compter sur un patrimoine britannique remontant de plusieurs siècles. Mais celui-ci, comme ailleurs, est quelque peu remis en question depuis la mort de la reine Elizabeth II et la transition qui a porté Charles III au pouvoir. A l'époque l'actuel premier ministre de ce pays d'à peine plus de 100,000 habitants avait même qualifié l'idée d'appartenir à la monarchie britannique d'"absurde".
D'autant plus qu'on est passé d'un colonialisme britannique à un impérialisme américain qui déverse ses troupes par milliers avec chaque passage des immenses bateaux de croisière venus de Miami. "Le monarque britannique est notre monarque, résume Ralph Gonsalves, nous ne prêtons plus serment d'allégeance à sa majesté, nous le faisons aux citoyens de St Vincent et les Grenadines."
Mais trois ans après ces déclarations qui jadis auraient plus paraitre un cas de lèse majesté, on est loin d'être passé à l'acte. Pourtant la région ne manque pas d'inspiration à cet égard. A 45 minutes de vol la Barbade est la plus récente île à avoir abandonné la couronne, gagnant le statut de république en 2021. Il s'agissait du 14e pays à faire de la sorte. D'autres penchent dans ce sens, notamment une Jamaïque qui a fait part de ses intentions lors d'une visite du prince Harry.
Au Canada la position du Bloc Québécois est bien connue alors que plus récemment le chef néo-démocrate a dû en surprendre quelques-uns en déclarant lors d'un débat que son homologue bloquiste avait été aussi "inutile que la monarchie". Dans un tel environnement, à quand une république de Vincy?
"C'est au placard pour l'instant" résume Forrest Nichols, chauffeur et par conséquent expert des ruelles étroites et congestionnées de l'île qui donnent tant de peine aux visiteurs. Il y a d'autres chats à fouetter, comme ces artères martyrisantes et la corruption. Ce sont des enjeux de la campagne électorale qui bat son plein. L'irruption d'un volcan près de la capitale il y a quelques années a également fait plusieurs milliers de déplacés, certains étant encore réfugiés dans des camps de fortune.
Ce n'est pas tout, d'autres sans abris ont été victimes du passage de l'ouragan Beryl, aggravant la crise du logement. Le gouvernment signait récemment une entente avec une firme de Trinité et Tobago en vue de l'obtention de 300 logements pré-fabriqués. On espère pouvoir construire 1000 logements cette année, un chiffre énorme dans ce petit pays en manque de travailleurs qualifiés. S'ajoute à cette liste les troubles associés aux changements climatiques que le gouvernement ne nie pas. "Il ne s'agit pas d'un effort ordinaire.
Aucun gouvernement au monde ne s'engage à faire ce que nous faisons," estime Gonsalves, en mode électoral. Ses opposants du NPD s'attaquent plutôt au chômage qui selon leurs chiffres atteint 41% chez les jeunes. La crise constitutionnelle, s'il y en a une, devra bien attendre. Puis les Britanniques constituent encore des visiteurs de choix grâce aux liaisons de Virgin Airways au coquet aéroport d'Argyle.
100 DAYS OF MAYHEM
What does imposing tariffs on an island solely populated by penguins, rehiring mistakenly fired public servants and a top security leak detailing attack plans have in common? The sloppiness of the first three months of the Trump White House which promised peace only to deliver a tariff war, hiking prices after promising lower inflation.
This from an administration which had plotted its vengeful return for years. And uncertainty became a modus operandi as the U.S. adjusted some of the tariffs while doubling down on China. By then protests had taken to the streets of dozens of cities, and it was hard to tell what was upsetting Americans the most. To a shaky wall protecting it from foreign goods, driving up prices and sending retirement funds in a downward spiral, the White House added new scrutiny for visitors at the border which sometimes made the return of US residents themselves a concern.
Meanwhile the tariffs could come or go, the bitterness of those targeted, including close allies, would remain. All the upheaval of an entire mandate concentrated in under 100 days of mayhem and chaos which upset partners and sent markets on a wild ride, affecting Americans as much as the foreigners it was all supposed to read the riot act to. No land, no matter how small, distant or devoid of actual human presence seemed spared. But not all countries were defenseless and desolate rocks off Antarctica. Some were powerful and quite populous nations willing to defend themselves against unwarranted aggression.
China's decision to impose retaliatory tariffs against the US, joining Canada and other nations ready for a fight, further sent markets reeling. The European Union readied its own response, after a summit held with Central Asian countries that now seemed to be more reliable trade partners. Asean countries meanwhile also coordinated their response as Beijing looked to enhance regional co-operation. In the midst of all this Americans, including Trump voters, were hardly spared, Michigan auto workers seeing an immediate impact leading to hundreds of layoffs in the much valued auto sector. Staunch supporters of the president seemed to agree with his assessment the pain was a necessary moment to pass to achieve greatness, but others joined the street protests to say this was not the change they had voted for, setting the stage for a possible tidal wave at the ballot box next year.
The mid-term election seems many difficult months away at a time politics is taking place at warp speed, and not necessarily heading in the right direction. The stock market reaction in fact is "telling Americans who are listening that there are future job cuts, higher inflation and likely an American recession ahead," warned Canadian prime minister Mark Carney, whose popularity has soared despite leading a party in power for the last decade and on life support only a few months ago. A recession, for all America's efforts to separate itself from the wider world, would drag other countries down with it.
To retaliate against Washington's bellicosity Europeans caught the Canadian habit of fighting back by avoiding US goods and travel, favouring alternative options. Canada was by then going one step further by adding, next to the Maple Leaf stickers highlighting Canadian products on retail shelves, others marked by a T, identifying imported goods impacted by the tariffs. In any case they have been easy to spot lately, as they tend to sit untouched on shelves Canadians have chosen to ignore in favour of domestic goods.
The US and its products used to be cool and cutting edge but now faced boycotts to the delight of its rivals. The US also used to be a top destination, but has seen a drop in visits, both as a result of boycott and to avoid potential aggressive questioning by border guards, leading some airlines to trim their routes there in favour of other destinations. All of these repercussions did not fail to get noticed in Washington, causing divisions in the midst of the administration itself, as billionaire Elon Musk criticized the tariffs and called presidential trade advisor Peter Navarro a "moron", while rich backers who had supported Trump balked at the tariffs.
These were other key relationships that were being tested by weeks of uncertainty and turbulence leaving much of the world in chaos. The Trump administration said its tariff about face with most countries was all part of the plan, claiming some 75 nations had responded to the tariffs by rushing to the negotiating table - this would have to be quite a large table considering the number of countries involved. But analysts weren't so sure, saying that jittery bond markets heralding the worst probably forced the US to go back on tariffs unleashed just days before.
The trade war with China continued however and enabled Beijing - hardly a model of democracy itself - to call for a united front against the "Trump tyranny", turning a movement, which had once sought to isolate the middle kingdom, against the US. But even against China, which halted much-needed rare earth exports to the US, the White House had to tone down its measures, allowing tariff exemptions on some high tech goods very much in demand. The day to day climate of uncertainty of what to expect from what used to be a champion of free trade and commerce remained, and for many the damage was already done on many fronts. Countries were vying for new alliances, travellers for new destinations and businesses looking for new partners and customers until the dust settled. Whenever that may be. "The genie is still out of the bottle on policy unpredic-tability," remarked a group of Deutsche Bank strategists.
UNE AUTRE SAISON D'ENFER?
Les pas se pressent sur les pavés à l'approche de midi sur Carrera Espinel dans la communauté montagnarde de Ronda. Les visiteurs affluent, passant devant les vitrines de boutiques de chaussures, de souvenirs ou de jambons ibériques, vers le mirador qui leur permettra d'observer le spectacle de maisonnettes écarlates perchées au-dessus d'une gorge profonde, brillantes comme une couronne de dents posée sur le paysage aride du sud espagnol.
On y joue un peu des coudes près du Puente Nuevo qui relie l'ancienne ville mauresque à la nouvelle et sa place des toros à deux pas, troupes d'explorateurs de tous les accents suivant les passagers de cars venus de Malaga, et on est pourtant en pleine saison creuse. Pouvez-nous imaginer juillet au pied de la Sagrada Familia en plein Barcelone? Nathan y prévoit pourtant une brève visite alors que le chef d'oeuvre centenaire de Gaudi approche la pose de la dernière pierre. Ce sera la galère en plein été, avoue ce fonctionnaire canadien sans illusion, mais la famille a aussi l'idée de se réfugier dans la campagne française par la suite pour éviter les foules lors de son périple européen. Par sûr que cette destination ne soit plus démunie de visiteurs.
Ils ne seront pas les seuls à visiter les deux pays qui accueillent le plus de touristes au monde. De nombreux Européens qui se seraient dirigés aux Etats-Unis songent d'ailleurs de se tourner vers d'autres destinations pour éviter l'accueil sévère de la nouvelle administration améri-caine. Sans Jeux Olympiques, Paris retrouvera ses foules de toujours. Venise ne sera pas plus épargnée même si elle exigera quelques tunes à l'entrée.
Depuis quelques années ces revenus ne suffisent plus pour oublier les désagréments du tourisme de masse. La péninsule ibérique a déjà repris les manifestations en vue d'une saison de tonnerre lancée avec la semaine de Pâques. A la veille de celle-ci des milliers d'Espagnols défilaient dans plus de 40 villes du pays, accusant le gouvernement d'avoir peu agi pour limiter les effets de ce flux de visiteurs qui pourrait atteindre plus de 100 millions de personnes d'ici peu, comme en France.
Conséquence directe de ce torrent touristique, une hausse du coût du logement qui dans certains cas a doublé les loyers en quelques années. Le gouvernement a admis que le pays vivait une "urgence sociale". Selon une étude il y aura un manque de 600000 à un million de logements au pays d'ici quatre ans. Madrid proposait plus tôt cette année une taxe de 100% aux propriétaires non citoyens de l'UE et a créé des incitations visant le secteur de la construction. Mais pour plusieurs manifestants, ce n'est pas assez.
A Majorque ils ont défilé sous le thème "mettons fin au commerce de l'habitation". "L'avarice des hôteliers, politiciens, investisseurs immobiliers et 'parasites' de tout genre" a détérioré l'écosystème de l'île, submerge les services publics et facilite la gentrification, accusent des militants dans une lettre. En guise de conclusion ils implorent les touristes d'éviter leur île, les désignant de "source de nos problèmes." Dans une autre localité prisée, Tenerife, des manifestants avaient participé à une grève de la faim l'an dernier contre deux développements hôteliers qui selon eux avaient obligé les locaux à dormir dans leurs voitures ou même des grottes locales, parce qu'ils ne pouvaient plus se permettre de payer le loyer.
Des militants s'en sont pris à des voitures de location récemment, menaçant de cibler les aéroports. Aux Canaries, un tiers de la population serait au bord de la pauvreté. En mai 15 groupes militants d'Espagne, de France, du Portugal et d'Italie organisent un sommet pour coordonner leurs efforts contre le tourisme non durable. Dans certains coins l'été pourrait être plus chaud que d'habitude.
LONG ARM OF THE LAW
International justice has long been mocked by criminals and justice dodgers, but not all leaders can perpetually escape the long arm of the law it turns out. While president Vladimir Putin mocked the International Criminal Court's warrant against him, and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu thought little more of his himself, the Philippines' former president Rodrigo Duterte was taken into custody and dragged to The Hague after a warrant was issued by the world court for his arrest.
While some presidents can claim sweeping immunities from prosecution, others are facing the music from South America to Asia. Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro was recently told he would have to stand trial on coup attempt charges after a decision by the Supreme Court. Bolsonaro claimed the accusations, made after supporters tried to imitate the Jan. 6 US insurrection and attacked government buildings, were politically motivated. The country is currently led by a president who has himself served time in jail. Meanwhile South Korea's Soon Suk Yeol was another leader who had to answer for this acts while in office, notably declaring martial law after a period of legislative paralysis. He was recently released from prison as he awaits trial for insurrection.
The ICC arrested Duterte on home soil in Manila for alleged crimes against humanity during his presidency's brutal anti-drugs crackdown, killing more than thousands of people, various monitoring groups having difficulty pinning down a definite number of victims. After years of court rulings ignored by leaders from Europe to Africa, this was a significant moment, observers say. "Many say international law is not strong," ICC prosecutor Karim Khan stated. "But international law is not as weak as some may think. When we come together, when we build partnerships, the rule of law can prevail."
Of course justice is hardly speedy as the charges will first have to be confirmed and then it could be many months before Duterte heads to trial and years before the 79-year-old is sentenced. In the mean time the arrest, occurring at a time of political tensions in the Philippines, could stir trouble at home. "Duterte’s arrest comes at a tense time in Philippine politics, with the two most powerful families, the Duterte family and Marcos family, engaged in an ongoing political feud.
The two families control the highest offices in the Philippines, with Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. as the current president and Sara Duterte, Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter, as the vice president," writes Tyler J. Brigham in The Geopolitics. "Tensions between the two families and their supporters are on the rise. As Duterte goes to trial in the following months, a politically divided Philippines could see civil unrest from Duterte’s supporters." In time these have become the two most powerful and influential families in the country over the last decades, starting with former dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the father of current president Marcos Jr., from the 1960s until the late 1980s.
That's when the Duterte dynasty began, with the rise of Rodrigo Duterte, first as city mayor. In 2022 the two dynasties ran together on the same ticket, but it wasn't long before divisions began and worsened to the point daughter Sara mentioned she had ordered a hitman to kill the president. An investigation later found her responsible for misuse of public funds and she was impeached. An investigation led by the legislature targeted Sara Duterte and her offices over the misuse of $10.5 M. Her father's arrest has sparked mass protests by supporters in a politically charged up period leading to May's mid-term elections.
French justice has also come down with decisions targeting politicians, former president Sarkozy facing years in prison for accepting funds from Kadhafi while right wing leader Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement, barring her from running in 2027.
ENCORE DIVISÉ?
Les communautés si sévèrement frappées par le séisme de magnitude 7,7 qui a ébranlé la Birmanie et la Thaïlande n'ont pas fini de compter leurs morts, mais la vie se poursuit néanmoins autour des décombres. Certains secours timides accourent, des convois transportant des vivres et des médicaments permettant aux citoyens des régions notamment frappées au nord du Myanmar de traverser cette époque noire, qui ne fait qu'aggraver une donne déjà difficile en raison du conflit armé.
Pourtant il ne s'agit pas de camions ou de véhicules militaires, mais de gestes salutaires de citoyens, d'entreprises ou d'organismes d'autres régions du pays, les soldats étant plutôt déterminés à poursuivre les combats. Les troupes de la junte on d'ailleurs tiré en l'air afin d'immobiliser un convoi humanitaire de la Croix-rouge chinoise, qui selon les autorités n'avait pas obtenu les autorisations nécessaires afin de circuler.
Les soldats estiment que les rebelles tirent «un avantage politique» de l'aide humanitaire qui circule tant bien que mal depuis le début de la crise, qui au dernier compte avait fait plus de 3700 morts dans ce seul pays pauvre et relativement isolé de la région. Des écroulements en Thaïlande voisine ont également fait plusieurs victimes, jusqu'au coeur de la capitale où s'est écroulé un immeuble en construction.
Le chef de la junte Min Aung Hlaing s'est d'ailleurs rendu à Bangkok pour participar à un sommet régional sur la réponse au séisme. Ce dernier avait fait un rare appel à l'aide internationale dans les premières heures de la crise. Or les observateurs ne comptent plus les entraves sur le chemin des secouristes. "C'est devenu un véritable désastre, résumait le rapporteur spécial de l'ONU Tom Andrews sur la réaction du régime, on sait que l'aide au Myanmar a été bloquée, qu'il y a eu des arrestations et des blocus dans les zones de contrôle où ils ne veulent pas que l'aide soit acheminée. Ils ont fait de l'aide une arme."
Le régime a décrété un cessez-le-feu plusieurs jours après l'incident du convoi provenant de Chine, l'allié indéfectible de cette junte qui a à nouveau saisi le pouvoir lors d'un coup d'état marqué par la dernière arrestation d'Aung San Suu Kyi en 2021. Mais cette déclaration n'a pas été respectée, plus d'une soixantaine d'offensives du régime ayant eu lieu depuis quelques semaines. “A un moment où le seul objectif devrait être d'assurer l'aide humanitaire vers les zones du désastre l'armée poursuit ses attaques, déplore à son tour Ravina Shamdasani, du bureau des droits de l'homme de l'ONU.
Nous faisons appel au retrait des obstacles à la livraison de l'assistance humanitaire et à la fin des opérations militaires." Les temps sont durs pour les agences de l'ONU. En raison des coupures américaines son Bureau de la coordination des affaires humanitaires, qui emploie plus de 2000 personnes à travers le monde, doit réduire son personnel de 20%. "Le contexte auquel nous faisons face est le plus difficile jamais connu pour mener notre mission, estime Tom Fletcher, Secrétaire général adjoint aux affaires humanitaires et coordonnateur des secours d’urgence. La communauté humanitaire était déjà sous-financée, débordée et littéralement attaquée. Maintenant, nous faisons face à une vague de coupes brutales des financements''.
INTO 2025
Days into the new year 2025 is already putting Western democracies to the test. Amid the G7 group of countries alone instability rocks a number of powers from Europe to North America as the new year is ushered in. While Canada's Trudeau government possibly lives its final weeks the incoming Trump administration has already lashed out against political opponents, the media, friends and foe alike.
The US was barely able to escape a government shut down one week before Christmas. In Europe meanwhile Germany and France are in transition as the first goes to the polls and the second tries to avoid a new election call. A bit further away in Georgia protesters are still spilling into the streets after what they view as having been an election interfered with to benefit a pro-Russian candidate.
Ironically, standing relatively quiet amid all this and surprisingly stable is a country usually known for its political chaos, Italy. Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has in fact praised her government as one living a rare period of calm amid the surrounding chaos and upheaval. The boot of Europe has had its share, and others' too, of short-lived govern-ments. Dozens in fact in the post-war era. Meloni embraced this rare moment - fleeting perhaps - of stability "compared to the political turbulence that several large European nations are facing".
France's Macron next door was until recently struggling to form a government after naming a new prime minister in the aftermath of the first removal of the head of government under the current republic. The country is also seized with the crisis in faraway Mayotte, ravaged by a recent cyclone. Germany meanwhile is carrying out its election after the collapse of its government in December, a campaign punctuated by a terror attack which killed five people. The suspect, a 50-year old doctor who came from Saudi Arabia in 2006, was reported as an Islamophobe who praised far-right groups looking to make a historic impact during the election.
Those groups had also collected the praise of billionaire and Trump's so-called "efficiency Czar" Elon Musk, who played no small role in the government shut down debate and will clearly have an influential one in the incoming administration. Musk was condemned by Berlin for election interference after backing the Alternative for Germany far right party, and even compared his public statements to Vladimir Putin's campaign of interference.
"They both want to influence our elections and support the AfD, which is hostile to democracy," noted Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) now sitting third in the polls, going on to say they both wanted "Germany to be weakened and pushed into chaos".
Everywhere countries were bracing for the change of government in Washington, threatening tariffs against its neighbors, China and Europe, but the US was itself in a state of upheaval after a terror attack sparked concerns of copycat incidents and narrowly averting a government shutdown while Maga supporters squared off against Republicans as well as Democrats in the lead up to inauguration day. The latest squabble involved an issue which galvanized GOP supporters.
Some immigration hardliners say visas for skilled workers take jobs away from U.S. workers, but proponents, which include Musk and Trump himself, say America benefits from hiring them as they draw talent from all over the world, talent rivals such as Canada would only be too happy to welcome themselves.
The northern neighbor meanwhile was the first to suffer from whiplash at a time of tariff threats as Trudeau's crumbling government struggled to resist calls for early elections. The first week of January Trudeau called it quits after weeks of turmoil and uncertainty. A week before Christmas Trudeau had orchestrated another cabinet change amid growing calls from both opponents and members of his own party to resign.
This time the NDP was calling for him to step down after months of propping up his minority government, but its leader wasn't necessarily ready to back a no confidence motion initiated by the conservatives. The grumbling has been intensifying within Trudeau's own inner circle, with Liberal MPs pressuring him to make up his mind about whether to resign, while a major business group decried the uncertainty and "chaos" in Ottawa. A majority of caucus members from Ontario "overwhelmingly" agreed he must resign, according to one MP, and others from his home province agreed Trudeau's time had come to step aside. Trudeau said he would resign as soon as a new party leader is chosen to compete in this year's election.
In the meantime Matthew Holmes of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce said business groups were edgy in view of the political drama. "There's just a vacuum right now and there's chaos at the centre," he told the Toronto Star. "We need clear actions from the government and the business community needs certainty."
BRACING FOR 2.0
Officially the transfer of power in the United States was on January the 20th. But by then the incoming U.S. administration had gradually set the stage for the president's turbulent next four years. Well before inauguration day, Europe, China and the U.S.'s neighbors were threatened with tariffs and the returning leader had toyed with the idea of seizing the Panama Canal, buying Greenland and making Canada the 51st state, leaving analysts to wonder how this combination of aggression and ridicule would shape the years ahead.
Allies were preparing to welcome the new administration with a list of retaliatory tariffs and higher defense budgets to secure the world's largest island as observers pondered how many battles Washington was willing to wage at once and whether this would cause distractions from other pressing crises. But were these still allies, bullied despite their NATO membership in the fashion of the Art of the Deal? The turbulence hit the beltway first and foremost, where lawmakers initially struggled to pass legislation extending funding and averting another government shutdown.
While they were controlling both houses and the Supreme Court, Republicans were in fact divided and fighting amongst themselves in the lead up to the transition, sparking concerns as the new lead up to mid-terms gets underway. By then the look of American and world politics is anyone's guess.
In the days before the presidential transition, anticipating a vengeful final mandate by the businessman, outgoing leader Joe Biden, who had nearly disappeared from the world stage since stepping down as a candidate, raced to pardon his son and a number of prisoners on death row, secured more financing for Ukraine and made pre-emptive moves to protect certain categories of immigrants. He managed to secure an 11th-hour ceasefire in Gaza which would be for his successor to nurture.
Meanwhile controversy swirled over Trump's cabinet picks, leaving him to rethink his initial choice of attorney general, a former congressman facing criminal charges after a House Ethics Committee report alleged he potentially committed crimes, including statutory rape. Trump himself received a light sentence for his conviction in the Stormy Daniels affair. Joining the cast of characters was so-called efficiency czar Elon Musk, whose provocative social media posts were being investigated by the UK's counter-terrorism unit amid concerns the billionaire was looking to destabilize the Labour government.
The Trump adviser labelled British Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips a "rape genocide apologist" and said she should be jailed. Phillips told the BBC that such "disinformation" was "endangering" her, amid reports she was being shadowed by security in her displacements. Germany was no less alarmed by the dual US-Canadian citizen's propping of extreme right wing party AfD.
In his farewell address Biden warned the US threatened to become an "oligarchy" run by billionaires. Meanwhile the southern California fires failed to do what natural disasters usually do, and that is unite Americans to support the survivors. Instead the inferno gave way to finger-pointing by the president-elect, blaming the Democratic governor for his response and raising the possibility of making disaster relief conditional. The battle for 2028 it seems has already begun.
Meanwhile neighbors Canada and Mexico, who have sent firefighters and water bombers to fight the flames, showed the true spirit of regional cooperation, as an administration bent on admonishing them takes over.
GROËNLAND LIBRE?
Après avoir fait bien rire tout le monde, elle a eu un autre effet cette idée saugrenue d'acheter le Groënland, l'ile la plus importante au monde regorgeant de ressources naturelles, comme les Etats-Unis auraient pu le faire avec la Louisiane ou l'Alaska: celui de donner un nouvel élan à cette ancienne idée de se séparer de la couronne danoise.
Avec ses nouvelles connections aériennes, ses ressources encore intouchées et sa position stratégique alors que la planête se réchauffe, ce territoire de 57000 habitants avoisinnant le Canada serait peu peuplé certes, mais plus que d'autres pays insulaires de la planête. Le Tuvalu en compte à peine 10000, pas bien moins que le Nauru ou Palau encore, isolés du monde dans leurs confins océaniques.
"Il est temps de prendre un pas et de former notre avenir, ainsi que de décider avec qui nous allons coopérer et développer des partenariats commerciaux", déclara le premier ministre Mute Egede lors de son allocution du nouvel an. L'idée d'indépendance a fait du progrès depuis 1953 quand l'ile a cessé d'être une colonie danoise pour éventuellement établir son propre parlement. Il y a deux ans le Groënland proposait une première ébauche de constitution.
"Il nous est venu le temps de prendre le prochain pas, dit-il. Comme d'autres pays dans le monde nous devons oeuvrer afin de retirer les obstacles à la coopération - que nous pouvons décrire à titre de boulets du colonialisme - et aller de l'avant."
La proposition de Donald Trump, la seconde en six ans visant le Groënland, a provoqué une levée des boucliers à Copenhague, qui a aussitôt décerné plus d'un milliard d'euros à la défense du territoire de 2 millions de kilomètres carrés, un geste symbolique qui en préparait peut-être un autre.
Plus récemment la première ministre danoise affirmait que "Le Groënland est aux Groënlandais," une déclara-tion qui a fait plaisir aux sécessionsistes. L'Europe n'a pas tardé à réagir également à ces déclarations expansi-onnistes délirantes, s'engageant à protéger ce terrain jusqu'à tout récemment plutôt ignoré.
L'ile est sujette à toutes les convoitises, hébergeant une base militaire et regorgeant de plusieurs minéraux recherchés par les grandes puissances, notamment des matières associées aux technologies de pointe. Mais pour l'instant le Groënland tente de développer son tourisme et dépend toujours de la pêche et des versements généreux du petit royaume européen.
Alors que les citoyens doivent se présenter aux urnes en avril aucune date n'a encore été fixée en vue d'un éventuel référendum sur la question, que propose de soumettre au peuple éventuellement le jeune premier ministre de 37 ans. En attendant la Russie suit avec intérêt les déclarations américaines sur le Groënland, elle qui considère l'Arctique comme sa chasse gardée, y versant des milliards en investissements malgré les sanctions et la guerre en Ukraine. Les enjeux pourraient vite s'y déplacer.
THE FIGHT FOR TURKIYE
In an age where authoritarian regimes are seeing their influence rise, some populations are willing to stand up for democratic rights and confront the strongmen of the world at a time freedoms are being restricted in many countries. The most impressive protests in a dozen years have been sweeping Turkiye after opposition figure and Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested days before he was to be nominated as the opposition Republican People’s Party’s presidential candidate, years before an expected challenge to the decades-long rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Hundreds were arrested as protesters clashed with police in major cities across the country in the most important unrest since 2013, leaving some demonstrators dead. Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian over the years, and while the government denied any involvement in the decision, pointing to the independence of the judiciary, the strongman's hand could not be far removed from the stated accusations of links to corruption and terror organizations. Imamoglu denied the allegations and called them politically motivated.
"I will never bow", he said after being remanded in custody - pending trial. The sidelining of political opponents has been common practice in countries such as Belarus and Russia, where Alexei Navalny died in a penal colony just over a year ago, after years of being a thorn in Vladimir Putin's side. Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya took on the role after her husband, Syarhei Tsikhanou-ski was arrested after running in the 2020 presidential election against strongman and Putin ally Aleksandr Lukashenko.
The man often called Europe's last dictator is beginning his seventh term in office after January elections broadly seen as neither free not fair. Not without irony he claimed Belarus "has its own standards for holding elections, which can become an international benchmark." Ten Belarusian human rights groups stated that the vote was "held in a deep human rights crisis, in an atmosphere of total fear caused by repressions against civil society, independent media, the opposition, and all dissenters."
Imamoglu's arrest sparked widespread protest, notably at universities, who engaged in boycott and faced violent crackdowns. Over 1500 people were arrested within days including dozens of journalists, increasing concerns about the fate of democracy in such a key strategic NATO member the West is relying on this stand up to Putin. Reporters Without Borders denounced the journalists' arrests as "scandalous", local repre-sentative Erol Onderoglu saying it "reflects a very serious situation in Turkey".
The leader of Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party, or CHP, Ozgur Ozel, met with the incarcerated mayor in a West Istanbul prison, emerging to state he was “ashamed on behalf of those who govern Turkey of the atmosphere I am in and the situation that Turkey is being put through.” With two other CHP district mayors languishing behind bars, he spoke of “three lions inside, standing tall, with their heads held high … proud of themselves, their families, their colleagues, not afraid.”
With Imamoglu removed from the post after his arrest, prosecutors asked for his posters to be removed from public spaces, but supporters defiantly said more portraits of the suspended mayor would appear across the capital shortly. “You will see more of Mayor Ekrem on the balconies of houses, in squares, on the streets and on the walls,” the head of the CHP’s Istanbul branch said on social media. Imamoglu, 47, denied the charges against him, which included suspicion of running a criminal organization, accepting bribes, extortion, illegally recording personal data and bid-rigging.
The U.N. Human Rights Office condemned “widespread detentions” and asked that “all those detained for the legitimate exercise of their rights must be released immediately and unconditionally.” While the presidential election isn't scheduled for another three years there are rumors Erdogan may move them up to secure another term and extend his 22 years in power.
Carnegie Europe says growing democratic crackdowns of the sort in a number of countries show that “autocrats and would-be autocrats” are “much more connected in their policies and goals than we have been assuming,” adding that these leaders are “sniffing the change in the geopolitical air, and reckoning they’re on the cusp of a new era.” That slide toward autocracy indeed seems quantifiable. According to Sweden's V-Dem Institute the world counted more autocracies in 2024, defined as governments with “insuf-ficient” levels of democratic freedoms, than democracies for the first time in more than two decades, 45 in all were “autocratizing” last year.
ENCORE DÉCHIRÉ
Déjà divisé afin de mettre un terme à la guerre en 2011, le Soudan pourrait-il être scindé à nouveau alors que se prolonge le plus récent conflit à le décimer depuis plus d'un an? C'est un scénario de plus en plus probable alors que l'armée reprend le contrôle de la capitale près de deux ans après le début des éclats avec les Forces de soutien rapide.
Cette reprise est plutôt symbolique car le FSR domine le paysage au sud et à l'ouest du pays de 50 millions d'habitants, notamment la région du Darfour qui avait tant fait parler du Soudan lors des atrocités des décennies précédentes. Celles-ci se poursuivent toujours, tout comme les massacres qui ont fait des dizaines de milliers de victimes ces dernières années, laissant plus de la moitié de la population entière dans le besoin urgent.
Le FSR travaille depuis quelque temps déjà sur un projet de gouvernement parallèle, comme il peut en exister dans cet autre pays instable de la région, la Libye. Ce gouvernement aurait pignon sur rue à Nyala, une importante ville du Darfour, et serait en mesure d'imprimer sa propre monnaie et son propre passeport.
Cette perspective alarme les instances internationales dont l'Union africaine et les Nations unies, alors que certains pays de la région, dont le Kenya, semblent plutôt approuver un tel projet. L'UA a partagé sa "condamnation" d'une telle division, soulignant les dangers de partition du pays. Etats-Unis et Union européenne ont également affiché leur opposition, une rare occasion de trouver une ligne commune étant données les tensions actuelles.
L'UE a réitéré son "engagement en vue de l'unité et de l'integrité territoriale du Soudan", craignant que le projet ne mette en péril les aspirations démocratiques de ses citoyens. Le RSF s'est engagé à créer un état laïc et non centralisé, déclarant la "naissance d'un nouveau Soudan". Selon Jonas Horner du European Council of Foreign Relations une telle division "ne ferait que reconfigurer le conflit" tout en destabilisant davantage le pays.
En attendant la région elle-même baigne dans l'instabilité, le Tchad voisin se disant préoccupé par "des menaces explicites à l'égard de la sécurité et de l'intégrité territoriale" de la part de Khartoum, des "propos irresponsables qui peuvent être interprêtés comme une déclaration de guerre." Le Tchad accuse le Soudan de le menacer d'instabilité en orchestrant des rébellions tout en appuyant le groupe extrémiste Boko Haram.
Anciennement partie du Soudan, le Soudan du sud plonge également dans la crise, l'Allemagne y fermant son ambassade en raison de l'instabilité qui place le pays "au bord de la guerre civile". Selon Berlin le président Salva Kiir et son rival le vice président Riek Machar ''sont en train de plonger le pays dans une spirale de violence". Ce sont des tensions dans le nord du pays entre les troupes gouvernementales et les rebelles qui agitent le pays.
Les tensions grimpent "notamment alors que nous approchons des élections et alors que la compétition politique augmente entre les joueurs principaux," selon le représentant de l'ONU Nicholas Haysom. Le manque de confiance entre Machar et Kiir en est largement responsable selon lui. "La désinformation et les discours haineux font monter la tension d'un cran et creusent les divisions ethniques et augmentent les craintes, nous devons conclure que le Soudan du sud risque de replonger dans une guerre civile."
THE CUTS THAT RUN DEEP
When it hasn't been targeting countries directly with tariffs and intimidation tactics, the new US administration has impacted nations around the world by proceeding with massive internal changes to its bureaucracy, slashing staff and budgets in departments ranging from foreign aid to health agencies, disrupting everything from humanita-rian supplies to monitoring diseases at a time a number of them are threatening vulnerable populations, including Americans.
The budgetary measures have admittedly gone too far in some areas, cuts to units monitoring Ebola and bird flu, at a time the latter has made victims in the US and decimated chicken stocks, having been reversed after stunning international observers and alarming experts. More recently the USDA, which among things supports education, child development and food security in poor countries, was forced to hire back all 6,000 of its fired workers.
The White House's announcement it was pulling out of the World Health Organization, at a time a new covid variant has been raising concern in China and a disease in Congo has lethally spread, killing dozens within hours, has left physicians across the world fearing the worst, including a possible failure to prevent a future pandemic. The result is changing the image of the US into that of an unreliable health or defense partner, disrupting international systems and hampering cooperation on a number of levels.
Weather experts in Canada say they are having a hard time hearing from their NOAA counterparts, the sharing of information, so critical to developing detailed forecasts, with implications on both sides of the border, having been severed. Likewise cuts expected at the Environmental Protection Agency have sparked concern of not being able to prevent future disasters in shared waterways. This upheaval is taking place as Washington's decision to pull out of the Paris climate accord, not for the first time, has also alarmed countries battling against global warming, doubly concerned about America's determination to slash mitigation budgets and increase its reliance on fossil fuels as it seeks to power energy-hungry data centres at the heart of the Artificial Intelligence revolution.
Among all the measures impacting organizations well beyond the beltway, cutting USAID and US foreign aid in general, slashing some $60 billion in funding, had an immediate effect on the ground, stopping the delivery of medical and food supplies in countries in a state of emergency. Among them, Congo will see aid group Action Against Hunger no longer be able to treat tens of thousands of malnourished children this Spring, putting them in “mortal danger.”
In Ethiopia this means an end to food assistance for more than 1 million people, according to the Tigray Disaster Risk Management Commission, while in South Sudan, the International Rescue Committee said it closed a project providing access to quality health care and nutrition services to more than 115,000 people.
From Afghanistan to the Philippines everything from food aid to health care and other supports have been terminated, ending America's reputation as a humanitarian benefactor while curtailing its ability to develop a capital of sympathy. Upheaval and dismissals at the US' intelligence agencies is also hampering international intelligence cooperation, and the White House's picks of director of national intelligence and director of the FBI "will likely force key U.S. regional allies – like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan – to (partially) shift away from Washington’s network and establish intelligence pacts outside of Trump’s influence," according to a critique in The Diplomat.
Asia is not alone to be concerned about the future of key intelligence alliances, threats by a US official to remove Canada from the Five Eyes also sparking questions about Washington's divisive moves since January 20th. The decision to temporarily suspend US intelligence to Ukraine, along with military aid, possibly as a negotiating tactic to force Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table, also showed how quickly Washington could change its stance and alter alliances. This has in turn left some allies to consider limiting intelligence with a partner increasingly cosy with Moscow.
Cuts to the US Agency for Global Media, which funds pro-democracy media outlets, likewise had global implications, the silencing of networks such as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe undoing decades of efforts to combat authoritarian propaganda at a time of growing misinformation. Sometimes it wasn't cuts hampering business but the inability of public servants to do their work that had an impact far and wide.
Under new rules millions of them were forced to abandon telework and returned to offices which were often not ready to receive them. According to CNN in one Department of Health and Human Services office there was no Wi-Fi or even full electricity and other offices were missing desks and other key equipments. More uncertainty about cuts and budgets with consequences across the world came from the courts, actively engaged in reviewing impacts to US department budgets. While a court decision ultimately allowed USAID cuts to continue, Supreme Court justices rejected the administration's emergency request to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid.
Another judge later ordered thousands of federal workers to be reinstated. Other court battles are pending. The result of all this is a cataclysm of uncertainty affecting support programs across the globe in unsettled times, and transforming the image of a country which once valued soft power influence.
A LA DÉRIVE
Elles voguent au large de Panama, du Nauru ou de l'Australie, mais font toutes face au même défi, celui d'être englouties progressi-vement par la montée des eaux liée aux changements climatiques. Certaines de ces îles ont déjà commencé le déménagement de leurs populations, malgré la résistance farouche de certains résidents de longue date dont la culture est liée à cette terre ancestrale.
D'autres tentent par tous les moyens de trouver une solution, souvent coûteuse, parfois ingénieuse, à l'énigme climatique de notre époque. Les réfugiés du climat font partie de l'actualité, notam-ment en Australie, où l'on prépare déjà l'évacuation des iles Coco, menacées comme de nombreuses îles du monde par l'érosion des côtes.
Ces 27 petits atolls à presque 3000 kilomètres de la côte ouest de l'Australie abritent quelques 600 habitants dont on propose la relocalisation lors des prochaines décennies, l'option la plus «viable pour protéger les vies d'une manière socialement, économiquement et écologi-quement respectueuse» selon un rapport du gouvernement, qui ne précise pas la destination.
Face à une montée de eaux de l'ordre de 18 centimètres d'ici 2030, les élus régionaux regrettent que le gouvernement n'envisage pas des stratégies à long terme qui permettraient de rester sur place, n'excluant pas des recours devant les tribunaux. Il ne s'agit pour l'instant que d'une proposition, mais ce genre de transfert n'est pas sans précédent. Les îles Fiji ont déjà relocalisé des centaines de leurs communautés depuis une décennie. De plus l'an dernier l'Australie concluait un traité avec le Tuvalu permettant à ses habitants le droit de vivre down under si le pays devenait invivable.
A l'autre bout du monde la relocalisation de l'île panaméenne de Gardi Sugdub ne s'est pas faite sans résistance. Alors que 1000 personnes ont quitté cette communauté de cabanes de bois et de tôle collées les unes sur les autres l'an dernier, 100 autres sont restées, incapables de trouver où se loger sur le continent ou refusant de quitter la maison de leur enfance. Première île à subir ce sort dans la région, il ne s'agira pas de la dernière puisque selon les experts la plupart des îles de la Guna devront être relocalisées dans l'avenir.
Au large du Sierra Leone, même désespoir face au besoin d'abandonner l'île de Nyangai. Peu de coins du monde sont épargnés. Mais souvent il s'agit de pays entiers menacés par les flots. Longtemps symbole des effets des changements climatiques et de la montée des eaux, le Vanuatu a vu le niveau de la mer augmenter autour de l'archipel de 6 millimètres par an entre 1990 et 2010, soit bien plus rapidement que la moyenne mondiale.
Et la tendance n'y est pas à la baisse. Ce pays insulaire de 10000 habitants, tout comme d'autres tels la Papouasie-Nouvelle Guinée ou la Micronésie, auraient déjà perdu «plus de 1% de leur PIB en raison de la montée des eaux», selon Rosanne Martyr, de l'institut Climate Analytics. Le Vanuatu ainsi que d'autres sont par conséquent à la recherche de «solutions de financement climatique afin de construire des infrastructures résilientes» selon un ministre.
Possiblement à l'instar du Fiji, un genre de marché d'obligations vertes pour obtenir des fonds en vue de développer des projets environnementaux. D'autres états du Pacifique ont choisi de taxer les combustibles fossiles. Le Nauru quant à lui monnaye depuis novembre sa nationalité pour financer un déménagement futur de sa population menacée par la montée des eaux, malgré les risques associés à ce système de «passeport doré».
LE VOISIN INFLUENT
Il s'agit d'un des grands attraits de la capitale laotienne, le marché à ciel ouvert de nuit à deux pas du mythique Mekong dans cette région relativement tranquille de l'Asie du sud-est. Pas loin des nombreux temples scintillants surveillés par des bonzes vêtus de robes couleur safran et des bouddhas de bronze, il expose ses nombreux étalages multicolores quotidiennement, mais le choix offert ne semble pas émouvoir un visiteur chinois logé au V hotel à quelques rues: "c'est à 90% du vêtement" se plaint-il.
En effet peu d'artisanat local mais des montagnes de chemises, vestes et autres accoutrements, produits du voisin vietnamien entre autre, mais surtout portant des étiquettes en chinois. Ce pays de 7 millions d'habitants n'a pas besoin d'un rappel de sa géographie fragile, coincé entre les grandes nations que sont la Thaïlande, la Chine et le Vietnam, d'où provient la grande majorité de ces tristes produits marqués "New York", "Paris" ou "Sanamonica" à l'orthographe douteuse, semblables à ce que l'on peut retrouver partout ailleurs.
L'influence, l'invasion silencieuse diront certains, du "parrain" voisin, prend plusieurs formes au Laos, notamment avec ses projets de "nouvelle route de la soie", ici comme ailleurs. Déjà elle remplace l'architecture du protectorat français d'antan par des développements massifs des temps modernes, avec ses centres d'achats et immeubles commerciaux sans charme poussant comme des champignons, résultat d'une spéculation chinoise dopée par son importante diaspora, le "réseau de bambou".
Le train à grande vitesse qui a considérablement réduit le trajet de Vientiane à Luang Prabang, l'ancienne capitale, est un petite tronçon d'une ligne reliant la Chine à la Thaïlande qui ne fait que passer par ce pays d'arrière pensée, comme il pouvait l'être perçu à l'époque par les maitres d'Indochine. Le projet titanesque, que n'aurait jamais pu se payer le Laos, comme tant de projets de l'initiative ceinture et route, a été financé à 70% par la Chine, le reste revenant à Vientiane, en passant par une banque évidemment chinoise. Les projets du genre sont nombreux, posant entre autre des barrages sur les cours d'eau en vue de faire du Laos "la batterie de l'Asie du sud-est" en exportant sont électricité. Mais du coup en augmentant sa dépendance envers l'empire du milieu.
"Quand les Chinois pissent dans le Mekong ça coule sur nous" a un jour prononcé un proche du régime laotien. Cette invasion est d'autant plus importante au marché de nuit au long du quai Fa Ngum, produits après produits provenant du grand frère au-delà des montagnes plutôt que de l'artisanat lao. Le Laos n'est pas le seul à faire face à cette avalanche de produits bon marché. La region entière souffre de ce déversement de produits chinois, de Ho Chi Minh ville à Bangkok en passant par Jakarta, pourtant plutôt éloignée.
La raison principale de ce dumping se doit notamment au ralentissement de la consommation chinoise. Résultat: une chute de produits manufacturés de l'ordre de 11% en Thaïlande ces dernières années alors que l'industrie indonésienne du textile a perdu des milliers d'emplois selon le magazine Economist.
Ces pays ont décidé de répliquer en imposant des taxes à l'importation ou en limitant, voire interdisant les achats sur les sites de commerce électronique des géants chinois. Ces mesures protectionnistes ont connu plus ou moins de succès ailleurs, les plus récentes ayant été annoncées aux Etats-Unis, un pays qui menace également d'imposer des tarifs contre l'Asie du sud-est pour corriger sa balance commerciale.
Le flot chinois reste malgré tout difficile à arrêter, la zone de l'Association des nations de l'Asie du Sud-Est ayant conclu une entente de libre-échange avec la Chine il y a plus de 20 ans. Puis ce dumping permet aux étalages de Vientiane d'offrir des produits plus abordables dans un des pays les plus pauvres de la région. Triste consolation.
LASHING BACK
The scene was quite moving. On a mid-September day over 100,000 Canadians packed Parliament Hill to honour their neighbors in their darkest hour, a gathering so unique it was eventually marked on a bubble gum card. A few years after that tribute to 9-11, fans were booing the US national anthem at hockey games in protest of the war against Iraq. Relations between the US and Canada have had their ups and downs.
This Winter before tariffs were even in effect on goods exported to the US the damage was already done between the two, even three North American neighbors. Canadians and Americans booed each other's national anthems at sports events and snowbirds cancelled their trips south while a Buy Canadian movement was hard to distinguish from a boycott of US products. It wasn't just the threat of tariffs, which had been hovering for weeks, but the tone of a disrespectful and unappreciative US leader. It also didn't help that the tense-filled early days of February came shortly after Amazon shut down its operations in Quebec.
The online giant denied it had anything to do with a warehouse joining a union, but Quebecers had seen this before from American corporations, from McDonald's to Walmart, shutting down operations after workers elected to express their right to unionize. For many, perhaps just for a time, enough was enough. Ontario put on hold its decision to ban stocking American alcohol in its LCBO outlets, but consumers had made up their mind to drop California wines for European or Chilean ones while Canada provided strong alternatives to the harder stuff.
In fact searching for Canadian substitutes to popular American products became quite the trend, even a national Winter sport, but one not without its challenges. The maker of a baseball cap popularized by Ontario premier Rob Ford with the inscription "Canada is not for sale" struggled to find a domestic manufacturer able to satisfy the surge of some 45,000 orders he soon received. The trade crisis in many ways has shown, as the pandemic had before, how dependent Canada was to foreign manufacturing and processing, from the confection of masks to refining oil. In an ironic twist, the great white north was finding out what some in the US administration were complaining about: the outsourcing of production which had over the years caused many jobs, and in fact capabilities, to be lost.
Lists of substitute items flooded the internet while grocery, liquor and other stores made a point of lining shelves with Made in Canada signs. Their accuracy however sometimes left to be desired, prompting some to develop an app to help consumers determine if a product was in fact made in Canada after scanning the code bar. A movement calling for a ban of Amazon in Quebec over the closure of local operations grew with the rare wave of pan-Canadian patriotism. The neighbors down south, it seemed, had touched a nerve.
Some of it reached surprising proportions: "I have rarely said this in my life but: Go Trudeau! Give them hell, your hour has come!" opined a separatist Montrealer who in normal times would vote Yes in a future referendum. On the political scene premiers lined up behind a suddenly surging outgoing federal leader, his Conservative opponent even briefly going so far as to say something nice about him as he struggled to find his own voice in a national debate which became radically different from what it was just weeks ago. How much of an impact would this have on the election campaign? Certainly the narrative has changed from axing the carbon tax. Who is more likely to be tougher on Trump is now the more probable debate sure to dominate the coming election by many accounts.
And this vote may come sooner rather than later, not just because the opposition promised to bring down the government at the first occasion, but because Liberal candidate Mark Carney, who is sky rocketing in the polls, could call an election right away if he is elected Liberal party leader. But despite the show of unity Canadian leaders are aware there is work left to be done domestically. First Alberta remains an outlier due to its dependence on energy production, and second inter-provincial trade barriers need to go.
Solving that issue may go further than any boycott of American goods, some analysts note, since Canada's internal trade represents the larger share of its GDP. And after all the interconnected nature of production in North America means boycotts could impact Canadian jobs as well. "Supporting Canadian busi-nesses is important, but the approach needs to be realistic and beneficial to everyone," wrote one commentator on Reddit. "Instead of extreme measures, let’s focus on practical ways to strengthen our economy without hurting consumers and small businesses." While some have committed to cutting travel to the US, something which may bring more business to Canadian destinations, "What happens if Americans do the same to us?" he asked.
In Quebec a poll revealed three quarters of participants said they would reduce travel to the US and consumption of US goods. Of course the low Canadian dollar may have played a part in this, one of the many effects of the simple threats of US tariffs - which ironically made them more bearable to Americans by making Canadian imports cheaper. Among the boo birds, there was no doubt everyday citizens pondered their own way of voicing their discontent. Not quite comfortable enough to join the jeers at the Raptors game, Joseph Chua sat in silence instead of standing during Star Spangled banner, and considered other ways to protest.
"We were already talking about what businesses are Canadian, specifically what are American, specifically what to avoid. I definitely will be trying to avoid American products and groceries," he said. And while more efforts are being made by some to read labels in grocery stores more closely to make out where their food comes from, there's also a limit to what some are willing to do in protest. "I will not be stopping to consume US platforms," said one Ottawa resident, drawing the line at cancelling Netflix.
TOUS À BORD?
L’annonce ferroviaire est tombée à un drôle de moment, alors qu’un train de marchandises accidenté bloquait la circulation des inter-cités et après une tempête de neige qui avait paralisé le transport en commun dans les trois grandes métropoles de l’est canadien. Toute la gamme des difficultés dans la mire du projet semblaient illustrées en temps réel sur les antennes de télévision.
Après des années d’analyses et d’étude le gouvernement du Canada, dernier pays du G7 sans train à grande vitesse, annonçait le consortium élu pour faire progresser le chemin de fer rapide de Toronto à Québec. Windsor devra attendre mais plusieurs petites stations, de Peterborough à Trois Rivières allaient être reliées. Éventuellement.
Il faut dire que ce genre de projet remonte à plusieurs décennies, mais ces derniers temps les projets nationaux ont la cote: voir est-ouest plutôt nord-sud sur un continent où le voisin n’a plus la faveur du peuple. En fin de compte à «Alto » de décider du tracé définitif de ce rêve lors des cinq prochaines années au coût de 3,9 milliards de dollars. D'ici là aucun véritable échéancier ou coût final, seulement une lueur d'espoir d'un gouvernement, lui, sur le départ.
« On entend souvent que les trains ne sont pas assez rapides, pas assez fréquents et qu’ils sont trop souvent retardés parce qu’on n’a pas une voie dédiée aux passagers, a déclaré le premier ministre Justin Trudeau. Le service n’est tout simplement pas à la hauteur des Canadiens, mais ça va changer. »
Il faut l'espérer parce qu'au même moment le déraillement d'un train de marchandise, qui a priorité sur le transport passager sur ce même réseau ferroviaire, retardait ou annulait la circulation des trains VIA du corridor clé rejoignant des provinces regroupant plus de la moitié de la population canadienne. Ce partage des voies ne peut certes pas durer mais sera la réalité pendant plusieurs années encore.
Par ailleurs le transport ferroviaire léger dans trois métropoles de cette même région laissait à désirer après une semaine de tempêtes de neige qui a retardé les utilisateurs de Toronto à Montréal, où le REM si récemment inauguré, a été paralisé et fait l'objet d'une enquête. On se serait cru à Ottawa, où le train léger souffrait toujours et encore, au long de ses trois lignes, dont deux fraîchement inaugurées.
Les leçons ont été cinglantes ces dernières semaines: LRT à Ottawa et REM montréalais manquent de fiabilité, ayant été mal conçus pour nos hivers rigoureux. Incroyable. D'ailleurs cet argument n'avait-il pas dans le passé été avancé lors des débats sur le chemin de fer à haute vitesse, plutôt coûteux, dans ce pays trop grand à la population trop éparpillée? Des sommes au-delà de 100 milliards ont été évoquées pour mener ce projet à bien, mais l'occasion est bonne pour faire fonctionner une économie menacée de tarifs par son partenaire commercial principal.
« On va bâtir un projet qui sera économique pour les Canadiens, a ajouté Trudeau. On doit s’assurer de coûts responsables pour cet investissement. En même temps, on sait que le Canada est un grand producteur d’acier, d’aluminium, de cuivre, de ressources de grande qualité avec des entreprises de grande qualité à travers le pays, qui peuvent contribuer à ce projet. »
LE DÉMÉNAGEMENT
L'idée paraît farfelue, déplacer une capitale de 16 millions d'habitants sur 1000 kilomètres, un méga-projet comme peuvent en rêver les émirs richissimes de la région du Golfe persique. Le nouveau site de la capitale iranienne serait d'ailleurs pas si loin des villes de l'excès de Dubai ou d'Abou Dhabi, sur le Golfe d'Oman au eaux turquoises.
Mais le rêve est ni entièrement nouveau, car il fait partie du discours des dirigeants de la république islamique depuis des années, ni sans exemple concret dans d'autres pays autoritaires. De Birmanie en Indonésie, en Egypte même, ces projets pharaoniques ont caressé l'imaginaire, parfois pour mieux exercer leur contrôle, parfois par nécessité, comme dans cette Jakarta menacée par les eaux.
En Iran, c'est pour échapper à une pollution légendaire entre autre que l'idée circule, et a été reprise dans le discours du nouveau président Massoud Pezesh-kian. Mais on ne s'est pas seulement contenté de la répéter mais de proposer un site bien précis, dans la région du Makran, face aux Emirats et juste à l'ouest de la frontière pakistanaise. Le projet est de la trempe des créations titanesques de cette région de l'or noir, mais les sanctions économiques permettront-elles un tel excès? L'idée est possiblement de réduire leur impact entre autre.
D'une part la logique serait, en plus de désengorger Téhéran, de répandre le développement à une autre région du pays, comme on a pu le faire au Brésil avec le développement de Brasilia, et avec la relocalisation de la capitale nigériane depuis Lagos. Un ministre iranien a évoqué Makran à titre de "futur centre économique de l'Iran et de la région". Selon Banafsheh Keynoush, de l'Institut international d'études iraniennes, le site proposé a un intérêt stratégique.
"L'Iran cherche à concurrencer les ports maritimes de Dubaï et Gwadar", dit-elle sur les médias sociaux, y voyant d'ailleurs la possibilité de limiter l'effet des sanctions en développant le commerce dans l'océan indien tout en renforçant l'influence dans le Golfe persique. Son développement pourrait créer de nouveaux liens gaziers avec la Chine et le Pakistan. Keynoush ajoute qu'elle y connait "une des côtes et dunes de sable les plus splendides", ce qui fait d'ailleurs craindre l'impact environnemental d'un tel projet, un impact qui fait craindre le pire dans le cas du déplacement de Jakarta au nouveau site de Bornéo.
D'ailleurs emménager dans cette région aride déjà touchée par les changements climatiques serait de la folie pure et simple rien que pour son impact environnemental selon certains. "Les températures vont continuer à s'élever avec le dérèglement climatique, entraînant une série de problèmes, fait noter à France 24 l'analyste Jonathan Piron.
La région étant dépourvue d'eau, il va falloir installer des usines de dessalement géantes. Mais elles coûtent très cher, nécessitent d'être alimentée par des centrales électriques et créent de gros problèmes de pollution". Puis le projet nécessiterait une climatisation importante rendue difficile par la crise énergétique du pays.
LE VOTE ANNULÉ
L'automne avait laissé le pays, ainsi que le reste du continent, dans un état de choc. Premièrement parce que l'élection avait, contre toute attente, donné vainqueur un inconnu issu de l'extrême doite, puis ensuite parce que le scrutin avait été annulé, soupçonné d'avoir été fortement influencé par une campagne de médias sociaux sans précédent fortement imprégnée d'une ingérence russe. Depuis la Roumanie vit des heures d'incertitude dans un monde plongé dans l'instabilité.
C'en était de trop pour le président Klaus Iohannis, lui qui était déjà menacé de destitution, qui en fin de compte a annoncé sa démission "afin d'épargner à la Roumanie et aux citoyens roumains une crise", en prévision d'un nouveau vote au printemps. Or cette crise bat déjà son plein, même si la nouvelle a été accueillie avec liesse par des manifestants qui se sont emparés des rues, et une opposition, qui n'a jamais pardonné l'annulation de l'élection.
Accusé de mettre en place un véritable "coup d'état" le sexagénaire au pouvoir depuis plus de dix ans a affirmé "n'avoir jamais violé la Constitution". Qualifiant la démission de "victoire du peuple roumain", le vainqueur surprise du premier tour, Calin Georgescu, a lancé: "il est temps de renouer avec l'État de droit. Reprenons le second tour".
Un autre chef de parti de l'opposition a déclaré sans gêne, dans ce pays dirigé sans merci par Ceausescu pendant des décennies: "Nous avons réussi à pousser au départ l'individu le plus arrogant de l'histoire de la Roumanie". Mais l'affaire de l'annulation du vote n'est pas terminée pour autant, la Commission européenne ayant ouvert une enquête sur les accusations de soutien illicite par le biais de Tiktok, une plateforme chinoise qui a fait l'objet de plusieurs enquêtes pour ingérence ailleurs dans le monde.
Entre temps les partis roumains font front commun contre cette montée sans précédent de l'extrême droite, plusieurs partis pro-européens souhaitant présenter un candidat unique: Crin Antonescu. A 65 ans cet ancien président du Sénat pro-européen a été jugé capable de séduire l’électorat social-démocrate et celui des libéraux.
"Il a fallu trouver une personnalité qui réunisse les deux électorats," résume le politologue Sergiu Miscoiu, qui le qualifie de "bon orateur". Antonescu s'était déjà présenté à la présidentielle de 2009, terminant troisième. Depuis la chute de Ceaucescu le Parti social-démocrate (PSD) et le Parti national libéral (PNL), tous deux pro-européens, se succèdent au pouvoir, leur exclusion du second tour vient donc bouleverser la donne.
Anciennement affilié à l’extrême droite, Georgescu participe au scrutin en tant qu'indépendant, sans parti ni fonds de campagne, et prononce un discours radical familier qui dénonce la mondialisation, l’immigration, l’OTAN, l’Union européenne, les vaccins de COVID et l'appui financier à l'Ukraine, de quoi plaire à la fronde anti-occidentale et pro-russe du continent.
SCRUTIN ENTRE LES BALLES
Son pays est en pleine crise économique et proie à une violence extrême de la part des gangs qui terrorisent les politiciens et font fuir les touristes, mais le jeune président Daniel Noboa a tout de même crié victoire au premier tour de l'élection écuadorienne, son parti ayant récolté le plus de voix, soit 44,1% du vote, mais pas assez pour éviter un second tour.
La rivale de la gauche, Luisa Gonzalez, qui aspire à être la première présidente élue de ce pays de 17 millions d'habitants, le suit de près avec 43,9%, préparant un second tour encore plus serré que le scrutin précédent il y a 15 mois. Celle-ci serait-elle près de lui ravir le poste lors de ce qui a l'apparence d'un référendum sur son court mandat?
En quelques années le taux d'homicides a explosé de 400% dans ce pays rongé par une guerre au narcotrafic liée à sa situation géographique stratégique sur la route de la drogue latinoaméricaine vers les grand marchés de l'ouest. Plusieurs apprécient cependant les efforts du jeune dirigeant de 37 ans dans ce combat sanglant qui l'a obligé à décréter l'état d'urgence.
Les observateurs huma-nitaires prétendent cependant que l'armée a été abusive dans l'exercice de ses fonctions, notamment après la découverte de la dépouille de quatre jeunes dont les corps calcinés ont été retrouvés près d'une base militaire. Les soldats étaient bien en évidence lors de l'organisation et la logistique du premier tour, alors que la frontière était fermée pendant trois jours. Les militaires voulaient éviter un nouvel assassinat après celui d'un candidat d'envergure lors de la dernière campagne.
"L'Équateur traverse un moment très difficile, je pense que c'est la pire crise depuis notre retour à la démocratie" il y a presque un demi-siècle, estime l'analyste politique Leonardo Laso. Pas moins déterminée à mettre fin à la crise sécuritaire, l'ex-deputée Gonzalez prône une approche différente. "Il est urgent que nous changions le pays, non pas avec des déclarations de guerre, qui ne mèneront nulle part, mais en bâtissant la paix", a déclaré cette dernière. Celle-ci a causé une surprise d'envergure alors que certains prognostics annonçaient Noboa gagnant dès le premier tour.
"Il s'agit d'une lutte à la David et Goliath," dit-elle, ce qui "montre que les gens veulent du changement." L'économie a notamment été pertubée par la crise sécuritaire, qui a découragé les investissements vers ce pays traditionnellement stable et paisible d'Amérique du sud, qui a le malheur d'être coincé entre le Pérou et à la Colombie, grand producteurs de coca. Noboa a dénoncé de «nombreuses irrégularités» lors du premier tour même si les missions de supervision électorale estiment ne pas avoir observé de «fraude» ayant pu « altérer les résultats».
Il estime avoir obtenu un « meilleur résultat » dans certaines provinces que les chiffres du dépouillement officiel, même si le résultat final n'a pas encore été affiché. Le chef de la Mission électorale de L'UE Gabriel Mato, a indiqué pour sa part n’avoir « pas un seul élément objectif indiquant qu’il y a eu le moindre type de fraude» et « regrette profondément » que la polarisation des débats «ait été associée à un certain récit de fraude ». Pour le politologue Santiago Cahuasqui « c’est la première fois » en un demi siècle que l’Équateur « possède un tel niveau extrême de polarisation».
WAR IN 2025
Drones versus drones, targeting communications connectivity and EMP weapons - as war continues to rage in Eastern Europe and global rivalries intensify in a time of shifting world order, offensive action isn't limited to conventional methods such as small arms fire, mortar or tank firing.
At the end of December, the war of the 21st century was in full display in the battle of Kharkiv, in northern Ukraine, where Kyiv's forces sent an all-robotic assault against the invaders in the form of drones in the air supporting automated ground units below, all the tools of Terminator in a war which has claimed thousands of human lives on both sides of the border. While minelaying drones took to the skies gun-armed bots rolled below, some carrying a Browning 12.7 mm machine gun, according to Forbes.
"We are talking about dozens of units of robotic and unmanned equipment simultaneously on a small section of the front," boasted a spokesperson for the 13th National Guard Brigade. Sea drones and terrifying so-called dragon drones, spewing thermite, which is not unlike throwing molten lava onto a battlefield, have been part of Ukraine's arsenal as it uses technology to try to compensate for its dwindling troop levels.
All technology has its weaknesses however, notably radio-waves which, blasted at incoming technology, can fry its electronics before it hits a target. The United Kingdom is notably working to deploy its Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon, which can hit targets a mile away at minimal cost, according to the Telegraph.
“We are already a force to be reckoned with on science and technology, and developments like RFDEW not only make our personnel more lethal and better protected on the battlefield, but also keep the UK a world leader on innovative military kit," said the country's minister for defence procurement last summer. “As we ramp up our defence spending in the coming years, our Defence Drone Strategy will ensure we are at the forefront of this war-fighting evolution.”
It's not yet the great EMP weapon some fear may one day threaten to plunge countries into the stone age, but possible baby steps leading there. In the mean time drone operators are developing ways around the more common defenses put up against them: signal jamming. To accomplish this some UAVs are tethered by the way of an ultra-thin fibre-optic cable than allows them to fly undetected and unhindered by jammers. Ukraine is experimenting with such devices in its war against Russian positions.
"This is a technological war," tells the CBC, a member of the Ukrainian military. "It is our job to develop and stay ahead." This is certainly true to both sides of the battlefield, as Russia has made use of similar devices as well, making the search for ways to neutralize the less-dectable, jam-proof wired drones the new high-tech race of the battlefield. In the great tech battle being waged connectivity is key, and severing it and the cables that make it possible can be a strategy with an impact at the military and civilian level as well.
The recent targeting of undersea cables by suspected Russia-backed and Chinese-backed ships in Europe and Asia are growing threats against the tech infrastructure and connectivity of the West and its allies. Shortly after the new year rang in such a telecommunications cable was damaged off Taiwan just days after Moscow was accused of similar suspected sabotage in the Baltic Sea off Finland, among NATO's newest members. Helsinki seized the ship.
These were among the latest incidents in a string of suspicious activity which included damage to two fibre-optic cables in the Baltic Sea last year near Sweden, another recent NATO member. A Chinese vessel was placed under investigation by Swedish authorities after that incident. The alliance has since deployed new assets in the Baltic Sea in an operation called "Baltic Sentry" to deter such attacks.
Suspected in the Baltic incidents are low-tech saboteur vessels circulating without proper insurance, believed to be behind everything from sabotage operations to efforts to circumvent sanctions faced by Russia since it launched the war in Ukraine. What it lacks in tech this "shadow fleet" compensates in numbers as Russia is suspected of having as many as 1,400 ships. In January a meeting of NATO's Baltic states focused on "measures required to secure the critical underwater infrastructure" and "respond-ing to the threat posed by Russia's shadow fleet," according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Days later an investigation was launched after a cable linking Sweden to Latvia was also damaged.
LE CONTREPOIDS
Se tourner vers l'Europe? Non l'idée n'est pas nouvelle, elle refait d'ailleurs son apparition occasionnellement lorsque le Canada connait une période de tension avec son voisin américain. Il y a déjà cinquante ans un papier du secrétaire d'état aux affaires extérieures Mitchell Sharp proposait une "troisième option" afin de faire face aux tensions apportées par la présidence de Nixon en pleine période de crise économique, celle de faire contrepoids au géant du sud en tissant des liens plus étroits avec les maitres du passé, les nations du vieux continent.
C'était ça ou préserver un statu-quo plutôt intenable ou sinon approfondir les relations avec les Etats-Unis. En fin de compte c'est cette dernière option qui a été retenue, avec le libre-échange bilatéral puis trilatéral, que l'on marque régulièrement lors du sommet Trois Amigos, réunissant les dirigeants nord-américains. Cependant ce sommet n'a pas eu lieu l'an passé, alors qu'il devait être organisé au Canada. Un autre sommet est prévu au Canada cette année, celui du G7 qui regroupe les puissances européennes et le Japon.
Est-ce un signe du besoin de raffermir les liens avec l'UE? Il y a dix ans l'idée a également croisé les esprits alors que l'environnement économique subissait d'importants change-ments, le premier ministre Harper voyant le salut dans la capacité de "diversifier nos liens économiques", son ministre du commerce se penchant sur la perspective de "nouveaux marchés... bien au-delà de l'Amérique du nord" puisque "nous ne pouvons pas dépendre d'un seul marché". Fait intéressant, le gouverneur de la banque du Canada à l'époque, Mark Carney, qui brigue la candidature du poste de chef du parti libéral, et du fait, de premier ministre, s'accordait à dire que le Canada était "surexposé aux Etats-Unis et sous-exposé" à ces autres marchés en pleine croissance.
Avec le temps le Canada a rejoint la Commission de l’Accord de partenariat transpacifique global et progressiste, dont il était le président l'an dernier, et a conclu une entente de libre échange avec l'UE, même si certains membres, dont la France, s'y sont opposés. Le Canada dépend d'un autre pays pour plusieurs de ses biens importés, mais il s'agit de la Chine. Le Canada a même vu naître une nouvelle frontière terrestre avec l'UE lorsqu'il s'est entendu pour diviser l'ile Hans avec le Danemark, mettant fin à des années d'un différend plutôt rigolo.
Mais la menace américaine de l'actuelle présidence, qui n'a rien de si drôle, pourrait-elle pousser le Canada vers l'UE? Il faut dire que le libre-échange avec l'Europe n'a pas plus réduit sa dépendance envers les Etats-Unis (75% du commerce) que le papier de la troisième option. « Du point de vue politique, je pense que c'est invraisemblable, livre à La Presse Justin Massie, spécialiste en politique étrangère à l'UQAM. Mais le Canada pourrait chercher à se rapprocher de manière beaucoup plus profonde avec l'Europe. C'est une idée que je défends depuis des années. »
Un rapprochement à la norvégienne peut-être, fortement intégrée à l'UE sans y être membre. Confronté, comme plusieurs autres pays, à la chèreté, le Canada pourrait se tourner vers le vieux continent en matière de télécommunications, le prix des services cellulaires y étant beaucoup moins cher, ou pour l'alimentaire, Carrefour étant un grand absent du marché canadien, lui qui est si visible en Europe mais aussi ailleurs dans le monde. La chaine Super U a sa seule enseigne nord-américaine... à Saint-Pierre au large de Terre-Neuve. En revanche le Canada pourrait finalement développer son réseau d'exportation energéti-que pour livrer ailleurs qu'aux Etats-Unis, et davantage diversifier la clientèle de ses minéraux. Ou l'idée n'est-elle, encore une fois, que passagère?
ON THE BRINK?
After years of lying precariously on the brink of full-out war over a mineral-rich region amid ethnic tensions, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo moved even closer to a regional conflict following the recent incursion of Rwandan troops in support of M23 rebels as they advanced to seize the Eastern city of Goma.
The new wave of violence sent hundreds of thousands of refugees, not for the first time, fleeing the conflict, displacing a longstanding humanitarian catastrophe compounded by the attacks of multiple rebel groups. Last week East African leaders sought to calm tensions by organizing a summit in Nairobi to bring together the leaders of the two disputing countries, but Congo's Tshisekedi declined to attend.
The conflict has been dragging on for decades in the aftermath of the Rwanda genocide which sent refugees fleeing into neighboring Congo, some of whom Kigali accuses of being behind the atrocities. Kinshasa has accused Rwanda of "declaring war" by sending its soldiers into Congo to back the M23 rebels, which have been supported by Kigali to defend Tutsis it says are being persecuted by Hutus in Congo. Kigali claimed it was acting in a self-defense and accused Kinshasa of harboring actors responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
The recent violence has killed hundreds and resulted in the death of peacekeepers who are part of a mission in place since 1999 to monitor the peace process of a previous conflict between Congo, Rwanda and Uganda. The latest violence provoked protests and unrest in Kinshasa where demonstrators attacked foreign embassies representing countries they say have done nothing to condemn Rwanda's actions.
The international community's intervention had previously ousted the rebels from Goma. While M23 is leading the offensive against Kinshasa's troops, it represents but one of some 100 militant groups active in the country. "The difference today is that it's more than just the M23," explains Rob Kabamba of Liege university. "There's a whole coalition of Congolese groups... whose claims go beyond the usual talk of protecting Tutsis. It varies from the need to improve living conditions to the legitimacy of democratic institutions."
Some groups go as far as to claim the current Congolese government isn't legitimate after what they consider sham elections in 2018 and 2023. Nor is Rwanda the only country eyeing Congo's riches, Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania and even Kenya, which sought to organize the latest summit, are closely following who controls North-Kivu's many resources, notably mineral resources such as cobalt, coltan and gold.
But Rwanda is Kinshasa's main concern and the government refuses to negotiate with the M23, which it considers a terrorist group. "The signs are unmistakable," said Congo's foreign minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner at the UN. "Rwanda is preparing to wage carnage with a brutality which harkens back to the darkest hours of our history." Not willing to let history repeat itself, Tshisekedi vowed Congo's response would be rigorous.
LOIN DE LA PAIX
Presque dix ans après l'accord de paix qui devait mettre fin à la violence en Colombie, celle-ci reprend de plus belle alors que la production de cocaïne atteint des sommets. En janvier le président Gustavo Petro décrétait l'état d'urgence après une semaine d'affrontements terrifiants entre différents groupes de guérilla, faisant 100 morts et 20000 déplacés en quelques jours. Il peut sembler bien lointain cet accord de 2016 conclu avec les Forces armées révolutionnaires de Colombie (FARC), qui se sont mises à épouser une approche plus politique que martiale.
L'Armée de libération nationale (ELN) cependant avait gardé le maquis. Non seulement ces derniers restent toujours actifs, menant à des éclats avec les narcotrafiquants du nord du pays, mais des anciens membres du FARC qui ont repris les armes dans le sud s'opposent à leurs anciens frères de combat, prenant la nation entière en étau. Après des décennies de guerre contre le narcotrafic, celui-ci dicte encore et toujours le cours des événements en Colombie, notamment dans le nord où fleurit cette culture lucrative.
C'est dans cette région, dans le département de Bolivar, où l'ELN se livre à une lutte féroce avec le cartel de du Clan del Golfo, tandis que plus au sud le groupe "Calarca", qui négocie la paix avec le gouvernement, s'oppose violemment à celui d'"Ivan Mordisco", qui rejette ces efforts. L'armée colombienne est en un premier temps spectatrice dans cette montée de violence, s'occupant de venir en aide aux populations prises entre les tirs.
"Nous avons aidé à la sécurité et la logistique et plus de 19 800 personnes ont été accueillies dans des refuges", résumait le général Erik Rodriguez. Les populations civiles ont entre autre cherché refuge au Venezuela, un pays lui-même peu épargné par la crise, qui a ouvert des centres de refuge près de la frontière. Mais si les forces colombiennes ne sont pas encore directement impliquées dans ce conflit mêlant guérilla, narcos et groupe paramilitaires, ça ne va pas durer.
La reprise des violences constitue un échec pour Petro, cet ancien rebelle gauchiste arrivé au pouvoir, comme d'autres avant lui, déterminé à mettre fin aux éclats. Ce dernier a dû couper court les négociations avec l'ELN, qu'il accuse de commettre des "crimes de guerre". Il estime que le groupe a "emprunté le chemin de Pablo Escobar", et par conséquent "a choisi le chemin de la guerre", ajoutant qu'en fin de compte il "aura la guerre".
Un triste dénouement dans ce pays longtemps rongé par le conflit qui tentait ces dernières années de redorer son image par le tourisme. Selon l'ONU la production de coca a augmenté de 53% par rapport à l'année précédente en 2023, représen-tant 253000 hectares de cette culture lucrative dont le trafic a augmenté la criminalité au long de son parcours, notamment en Equateur et au Mexique mais également dans les Caraïbes où une flambée de violence a mis 12 de ses nations dans la liste des plus meurtrières au monde. Il s'agissait de la dixième année de suite que la production de poudre augmentait, remontant aux débuts des accords de paix. Ceux-ci laissent par conséquent de plus en plus a désirer.